投資情報
Daily Focus & Technical

30
December
2020
Daily Focus : 30 December 2020,Selective Buy
(views 1,134)
The SET is expected to move in a tight range trading above its support 1,450 points before entering to a long holiday. Despite the spread of COVID-19 infections domestically, there is no nationwide lockdown. This is good enough for the stock market. Global liquidity surge still boost the stocks while there would be no selling pressure from LTF maturing in 2021. We recommend investors to hold position in equity over the year.
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29
December
2020
Daily Focus : 29 December 2020,Selective Buy//Accumulate at 1,400
(views 522)
The SET’s direction today mainly depend on DELTA. Although the plunge of DELTA share price yesterday incurs negative sentiment, we believe that an external positive sentiment, i.e. President Trump signed a US$900bn virus relief package into law, together with House passes bill for US$2,000 stimulus check, could retain the index not to fall below its support level of 1,450 points. In addition, the window dressing and wealth effect from the recent successful IPOs also support the SET. However, the risks remain as the COVID-19 cases continue to increase.
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28
December
2020
Daily Focus : 28 December 2020,Selective Buy//Accumulate at 1,400 points
(views 440)
We expect the SET to move sideways up and test 1,500 points among speculation in DELTA, BAY, AEONTS, which have low free float and weigh the SET to some extent. The window dressing and wealth effect from the recent successful IPOs also attribute to the rally. However, the risks remain after a severe reaction to Moderna COVID-19 vaccine has found and a new covid strain has rapid spread. Moreover, the COVID-19 cases are continuing their spread across the world. In Thailand, new COVID-19 infections have spread to 38 provinces. The trading volume should be thin as the holiday season is near.
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25
December
2020
Daily Focus : 25 December 2020,Selective Play//Accumulate at 1,400 points
(views 441)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,440-1,460 points amid thinner trading volume since several markets close to observe Christmas. However, the broad sentiment sees support from the Brexit deal between the U.K. and EU after lengthy negotiations. The agreement supported the British pound to appreciate and the U.S. dollar to depreciate. Also, it is positive for commodity prices, making them rise. In the U.S., although President Trump was yet to sign the COVID-19 relief bill because he would like the relief check to increase from US$600 to US$2,000, he also did not impose a veto. However, even though the president does not sign it, the draft bill will automatically become legislation. In Thailand, investors still need to monitor the COVID-19 situation in the next week if it will escalate and require additional lockdown or not. If the market retreats, we view it as an opportunity to accumulate stocks at crucial supports; the first of which is at 1,390-1,400 points.
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24
December
2020
Daily Focus : 24 December 2020,Tech and Defensive Play//Accumulate at 1,350-1,400 points
(views 408)
We expect the SET to continue to be volatile, moving within the 1,400-1,430 range. In particular, the market continues to see risks brought on by the new wave of the COVID-19 outbreak in Thailand after the number of confirmed cases continued to rise. More importantly, it spread to several provinces all over the country. Today, investors should monitor the CCSA meeting whether there will be an additional lockdown or not. In a worst-case scenario of a nationwide lockdown, the SET may fall to trade below its crucial support of 1,390 points to test its next support at 1,350-1,360 points. It will be negative for the domestic play, while we expect the global play to outperform the market after the Brexit talks are close to reaching a deal. It makes the U.S. dollar weaken and supports commodity prices to rise. Although President Trump called for an increase in the stimulus check from US$600 to US$2,000, he did not confirm that he would veto. If the SET falls, we view it as an opportunity to accumulate stocks at the crucial supports of 1,390-1,400 points and 1,350-1,360 points. In the short run, defensive and technology shares will outperform the market.
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23
December
2020
Daily Focus : 23 December 2020,Tech and Defensive Play//Accumulate at 1,350-1,400 points
(views 382)
We expect the SET to continue to swing wildly, moving within 1,400-1,440 points. In this regard, investors need to continue to keep an eye on the new wave of the COVID-19 outbreak in Thailand. Since the country continued to find new infections in provinces other than Samut Sakhon, it still risks a lockdown or tighter restrictions in the future. Meanwhile, the Dollar Index increased after several countries warned that mutant COVID-19 might have slipped into their country and would trigger an outbreak in the future. It is negative for commodity prices and crude. Given the latter, we expect it to pressure the energy sector to weaken in the short run. However, since the market believes the current vaccines can protect against the new virus strain, the decreases might not be as sharp as in the last round. Given that, we expect the SET to move within 1,350-1,400 points, which serves as an opportunity to accumulate fundamental stocks once again. In the short run, defensive and technology will likely outperform the SET as the market eyes Thailands November exports and the MPC meeting (where the market expects the committee to maintain its policy rates).
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22
December
2020
Daily Focus : 22 December 2020,Tech and Defensive Play//Accumulate at 1,350-1,400
(views 415)
We expect the SET to remain volatile. Besides, the index risks falling its crucial support of 1,390-1,400 points due to concerns over the new wave of the COVID-19 outbreak, particularly in Thailand after it turned to surge and began to spread to several provinces other than Samut Sakhon. In this regard, investors need to closely monitor the situation in the next 1-2 weeks. In particular, eye at future additional lockdown risk, similar to the global situation, which makes commodity prices weaken in the short run. However, the current vaccines can also protect against the new variant, according to news reports. Therefore, we believe the situation will not be as bad as in the first wave. In this regard, we expect the SET to trade within 1,350-1,400 points, at which it will serve as an opportunity to accumulate fundamental stocks once again. In the short run, we expect defensive and tech stocks to outperform the market.
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21
December
2020
Daily Focus : 21 December 2020,Tech and Defensive Play//Accumulate at 1,400 or Below
(views 435)
We expect the SET to tumble to test the 1,440 (+/-) level after Samut Sakhon registered a record number of 694 infections, resulting in a 14-day lockdown. Also, several provinces found new confirmed cases. They included Nakhon Pathom, Samut Prakarn, Ayutthaya, and Bangkok. They constitute a new wave as we have suggested. In the next 1-2 weeks, we expect a continued surge in the number of infections, and they could spread widely to where it requires additional lockdown in the future. Based upon the second wave in the U.S. and Europe in October, the equity markets dropped by about 8-10%. However, COVID-19 vaccines are now available. Also, Thailand did a good job in containing the outbreak in the first round. Therefore, we do not expect the SETs fall to be as much. If the index retreats to test 1,400 points or lower, we view it as an opportunity to accumulate fundamental stocks. In the short run, defensive and technology will likely outperform the market.
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18
December
2020
Daily Focus : 18 December 2020,Go with the Flow// Laggard Play
(views 474)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,475-1,495 points as the energy sector continues to see support from crude prices, which continued to increase. However, we still need to continue to keep an eye on Brexit talks. According to the latest data, there continued to be news of differences in several issues. Also, the market has high hope for the U.S. COVID-19 relief bill. In Thailand, there is no pressure from politics. However, the country found one more local COVID-19 infection, which needs continued monitoring. Given all that, we expect the cyclical play to continue to lead the market due to international funds, which still have an inflowing outlook. However, we expect cyclical stocks rally to begin to ease in the short run after they outperformed the market in the past month or so. Meanwhile, laggards, including commerce, ICT, healthcare, food, and mid-to-small-sized stocks, stand a better chance to outperform the market at this time due to sector and stock rotations
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17
December
2020
Daily Focus : 17 December 2020,Go with the Flow//Laggard Play
(views 414)
We expect the SET to move sideways to sideways up within 1,475-1,490 points, led by the energy sector after crude prices continued to rally. On the Fed front, the FOMC maintained its loose monetary policy stance. It included a low-interest rate of near 0% until 2023 and continued QE. Also, the committee raised its GDP forecast. In the U.S. Congress, there was progress in the COVID-19 relief legislation talks. Overall, the situation favors risk assets due to high liquidity and recovering economies. Besides, international funds are likely to continue to flow into Asia. Domestically, there is no fresh pressure from politics and COVID-19 infections. Given that, we expect cyclical and value plays to continue to support the market. Meanwhile, laggards, including commerce, ICT, healthcare, food, and mid-to-small-sized stocks, stand a better chance to outperform the market at this time due to sector and stock rotations.
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16
December
2020
Daily Focus : 16 December 2020,Go with the Flow//Laggard Play
(views 424)
The SET will likely move in positive territory. Specifically, we expect it to be within 1,470-1,495 points due to the more positive investment sentiment. Specifically, the market is optimistic about the U.S.s new round of stimulus measures. According to the latest development, Washington has split the relief budget of US$908bn into two bills of US$748bn and US$160bn. Since the first and the larger one has already had the agreement from the bipartisan group, we expect it to pass Congress within this year. Also, the FDA said Modernas COVID-19 vaccine was safe and highly effective. However, one factor needs monitoring tonight, the Fed meeting. Although the market expects the U.S. central bank to maintain its easing policy stance, investors should keep an eye on the new economic forecast after vaccines are available and the bond-buying. In particular, the market expects the Fed to buy more longer-dated ones. Given all that, we believe cyclical and value play will provide support for the market after their short-term retreats in the last two days. Also, laggards, such as commerce, ICT, healthcare, and food, are still attractive due to the prospect of sector rotation.
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15
December
2020
Daily Focus : 15 December 2020,Laggard Play
(views 422)
We expect the SET to move sideways down within 1,470-1,485 points due to the investment sentiment, which turns bearish in the short run after New York might have to turn back to a full lockdown, while London gears up to its highest level of restrictions. Together they eclipse the catalyst from Pfizers COVID-19 vaccine, which begins administration in the U.S. yesterday. However, the market still has some supporting factors from the U.S. electoral college officially confirming Joe Bidens presidential victory by 306 to 232 votes. Also, the COVID-19 relief program will split the budget of US$908bn into two bills of US$748bn and US$160bn to increase the prospect of approval by Congress. In the near term, we expect the market to see both sector and stock rotations to laggard ones, such as commerce, ICT, healthcare, and food.
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14
December
2020
Daily Focus : 14 December 2020,Go with the Flow//Laggard Play
(views 443)
We expect the SET to move sideways to sideways up within 1,475-1,500 points. Specifically, we expect energy and petrochemical to continue to lead the market after oil prices increased. Also, the market will benefit from Pfizers COVID-19 vaccine, which will start to be administered in the U.S. today. Meanwhile, the market liquidity is high thanks to the injection of both the Fed and the ECB. In particular, the latter just increased its stimulus budget by 500bn euros. Together they result in continued capital inflows into Asia. However, we will keep an eye on Brexit talks and the U.S. stimulus package whether they will strike a deal or not. Also, investors should continue to monitor the number of COVID-19 infections in Thailand in the next 1-2 weeks. Given all that, we expect cyclical and value plays to continue to take the lead, while laggards stand a better chance to outperform after the SET has rallied quite sharply and quickly in the past month.
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09
December
2020
Daily Focus : 9 December 2020,Go with the Flow//Laggard Play
(views 473)
We expect the market to trade higher, driving by capital flows into risk assets and Asia equities. The SET could test the resistance of 1,500 points in the near term. Investors have hopes for US$900bn US stimulus by year end and vaccine rollout. The positive sentiment outweigh the rising number of COVID-19 infections. Final Brexit trade negotiations begin this week. It is unclear whether a deal will be reached. If not, there is possible that global investors keep pouring money into Asia. In this regard, we believe the index rally may be limited as we are entering long weekend while keeping eye on coronavirus situation domestically. We believe that the cyclical and value plays should still be winner while the laggards would gradually outperform the market after the SET index rally during the past one month.
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08
December
2020
Daily Focus : 8 December 2020,Laggard Play and Stay with the Flow//Accumulate on Dip
(views 421)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,440-1,455 points, slightly retreated after rally last week. The sentiment supported by China export surge in November (+21.1% Y-Y) and vaccine optimism. However, news that US poised to sanction more China officials and Brexit concerns pressure the sentiment in the short term. Besides, investors keep eye on COVID-19 situation in Thailand during coming long holiday. In this regard, we believe cyclical and value plays should still be winner while the laggards would gradually outperform the market after the SET index rally during the past one month.
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04
December
2020
Daily Focus : 4 December 2020,Laggard Play and Stay with the Flow//Accumulate on Dip
(views 466)
We expect the SET to move sideways to sideways up within 1,430-1,450 points. The energy sector should be a leader after OPEC+ agreed to decrease their production ceiling by 500,000 barrels per day beginning in January. However, we believe that the upside of SET index is limited at its resistant of 1,450-1,455 amid vaccine concerns. There is a report that Pfizer vaccine could be delayed due to the distribution difficulties. In addition, US blacklist China chipmaker SMIC and oil producer CNOOC. Besides, investors keep eye on COVID-19 situation in Thailand during coming long holiday. In this regard, we believe mid-to small-sized stocks and laggards, such as ICT, commerce, property, contractors, and PF&Reit to outperform the market at this time.
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03
December
2020
Daily Focus : 3 December 2020,Laggard Play and Stay with the Flow//Accumulate on Dip
(views 383)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,408-1,430 points as the market is still in retreat to reduce the heat after it has reflected several catalysts in November. However, we believe international funds will continue to stream into Thailand and support the index at this time. Looking ahead, there will be a catalyst from an emergency approval of COVID-19 vaccines in the U.S. and Europe shortly after the U.K. is the first to approve Pfizers vaccine. Besides, there is optimism over a US$900bn stimulus package. Today, keep an eye on the OPEC+ meeting whether they can agree upon a delay to the 2mn-barrel output hike planned to start in January 2021 or not. In this regard, we expect speculation in the energy sector. Also, we believe mid-to small-sized stocks and laggards, such as ICT, commerce, property, contractors, and PF&Reit to outperform the market at this time.
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02
December
2020
Daily Focus : 2 December 2020,Laggard Play and Stay with the Flow//Accumulate on Dip
(views 390)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,410-1,430 points. Today, one crucial factor needs monitoring. It is the Constitutional Courts ruling on the Prime Ministers occupation of an army residence if it violates the constitution. If it does and the Prime Minister and the entire cabinet are dismissed from office, we view that it is a bane for the market because they will become just a caretaker government. That will disrupt the economic stimulus. Meanwhile, we expect energy to continue to move sideways, in line with crude prices, while waiting for the OPEC+ meeting tomorrow if they will be able to agree on a delay to the planned 2mn-barrel oil output hike from January 2021 or not. Given that, we expect mid-to small-sized and laggards, such as ICT, commerce, property, contractors, PF&Reit to outperform big-cap stocks, which outperformed the market sharply earlier.
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01
December
2020
Daily Focus : 1 December 2020,Laggard Play//Stay with the Flow //Accumulate on Dip
(views 478)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,400-1,420 points with a possible short-term rebound following regional markets. Markit Manufacturing PMI of several economies in Asia rebounded further in the month of November. However, investors should eye on whether OPEC+ will extend the output raise by 2mn barrels per day in January 2021. On Thai politics, Constitutional Court will deliver verdict on PM Prayuth’s eligibility to serve in a ministerial position tomorrow. Taking all into consideration, we expect big-cap stocks namely energy, petrochemical, and banks sectors to rebound in the short-term. Laggards such as ICT, commerce, property, contractors, and PF&Reit are expected to outperform the market.
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30
November
2020
Daily Focus : 30 November 2020,Laggard Play//Stay with the Flow //Accumulate on Dip
(views 416)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,430-1,445 points with eyes on China November PMI (We expect it to slightly improve) and OPEC+ meeting. There is uncertainty whether OPEC and allies will postpone the output raise by 2mn barrels per day in January 2020. On Thai politics, investors also eyes on Constitutional Court to deliver verdict on PM Prayuth’s eligibility to serve in a ministerial position today. Taking all into consideration, we expect big-cap stocks namely energy, petrochemical, and banks sectors to move sideways in the short term. We expect laggards such as ICT, commerce, property, contractors, banks, and PF&Reit, to outperform the market. Note that MSCI weights down Thai equity market today.
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27
November
2020
Daily Focus : 27 November 2020,Laggard Play//Stay with the Flow //Accumulate on Dip
(views 473)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,420-1,440 points. The index is expected to retreat after rally by about 20% MTD reflecting positive catalysts both US election results and a coronavirus vaccine. On Thai politics, there were no violence but we still keep eyes on. Taking all into consideration, we expect big-cap stocks namely energy, petrochemical, and banks sectors to move sideways in the short term. We expect laggards such as ICT, commerce, property, contractors, banks, and PF&Reit, to outperform the market.
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26
November
2020
Daily Focus : 26 November 2020,Big-Cap and Laggard Play//Stay with the Flow //Accumulate on Dip
(views 462)
We expect the SET to move sideways to sideways up within 1,400-1,430 points. In this regard, we expect the strength to begin to weaken after the index has rallied by about 20% MTD. Meanwhile, U.S. economic data came in mixed yesterday due to the lack of fresh catalysts. The minutes of the Feds meeting mentioned a fine-tuning of the central banks asset purchase plan - probably an increase in the budget or an extension. On Thai politics, there were shootings and an explosion after the protest ended yesterday, and a man was injured. It might serve as near-term pressure. Taking all into consideration, we expect big-cap stocks to continue to lead the market, particularly energy, which benefits from the rise in crude prices. Moreover, we expect laggards, such as ICT, property, contractors, banks, and PF&Reit, to outperform the market.
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25
November
2020
Daily Focus : 25 November 2020,Big-Cap and Laggard Play and Stay with the Flow //Accumulate on Dip
(views 381)
We expect the SET to move within 1,390-1,420 points. The global investment sentiment turns positive after the DJIA soared above the 30,000 level for the first time. Also, crude prices jumped due to the positive outcome of vaccine trials. Therefore, the market expects the economy and traveling to recover next year. It helps support the energy sector, which has a high market cap. However, investors still need to monitor a planned political rally today if it will signal negatively or not. Given all that, we expect large-cap stocks to continue to lead the market, while laggards have a higher possibility to outperform the market. They include ICT, property, contractors, banks, and PF&Reit.
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24
November
2020
Daily Focus : 24 November 2020,Laggard Play and Stay with the Flow//Accumulate on Dip
(views 433)
We expect the SET to move in positive territory, and the index may rise to test its previous peak of 1,450 points at this time, supported by the positive sentiment brought on by the outcome of AstraZenecas vaccine trials and the U.S. politics, which becomes clear following President Trumps starting of the transition process to Biden. Since the candidate for the Secretary of Treasury is Yellen, which is a former Fed president, the market is optimistic about more coherent U.S. fiscal and monetary policies in the future. It resulted in continued fund inflows into risk assets. In this regard, we expect big-cap stocks, particularly in the energy and banking sector, to continue to lead the market. However, the SET has rallied 19% MTD. Therefore, mid-sized laggards have a higher tendency to outperform the market because they remain undemanding and attractive valuation-wise. In this aspect, the sectors that remain a laggard include ICT, property, contractors, banks, and PF&Reit.
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23
November
2020
Daily Focus : 23 November 2020,Laggard Play and Stay with the Flow//Accumulate on Dip
(views 371)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,380-1,400 points. In the short run, there could be selling after the indexs sharp and quick gains of 16% MTD. However, we expect international fund inflows to continue after the developments on COVID-19 vaccine. According to the latest data, Pfizer & BioNTech has filed for emergency authorization for their vaccine, and we expect that to continue to support the SET to rise. Today, investors should keep an eye on Thailands exports in October. In this regard, the market expects it to decrease by 5% Y-Y. Also, a huge political rally is scheduled on November 25. Given that, we expect big-cap stocks to continue to lead the market, while mid-sized laggards have a higher tendency to outperform the market due to its undermanding and attractive valuation. They include ICT, property, contractors, banks, and PF&Reit.
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20
November
2020
Daily Focus : 20 November 2020,Laggard Play//Accumulate on Di
(views 426)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,360-1,380 points as the indexs upside begins to limit. Although the U.S. Congress agreed to return to the negotiation table on economic stimulus, the market sees pressure after the IMF and G-20 indicated that economic recovery would slow due to the new wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Also, the risk remains high. However, the SETs downside is also capped by the highly effective results of Pfizers and Modernas vaccine trial. They are currently applying approval from FDA. In general, we expect continued fund inflows, which will support large-cap stocks. However, the SET has rallied quite quickly. Therefore, we expect foreign inflows to bet on laggards. Moreover, mid- to small-sized stocks may outperform the market when it retreats.
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19
November
2020
Daily Focus : 19 November 2020,Laggard Play//Accumulate on Dip
(views 377)
We expect the SET to move sideways down within 1,355-1,365 points, in line with the sentiment of the equity markets around the world, which took a breather after responding to catalysts, such as the U.S. presidential election results, and the results of phase 3 of Pfizer & BioNTechs and Modernas vaccine trail. Meanwhile, AstraZeneca is also about to disclose the outcome of its trial shortly, which will help limit the SETs downside. However, domestic politics begins to heat up. In this regard, we need to monitor if there will be more clashes or the protest will turn violent next week. Looking ahead, we expect more fund inflows. They will support large-cap stocks to continue to lead the market. However, since the SET rallied sharply and quickly, laggards as well as mid- to small-sized stocks may outperform when the market retreats.
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18
November
2020
Daily Focus : 18 November 2020,Laggard Play//Accumulate on Dip
(views 383)
We expect the SET to begin to move sideways down to test the 1,330-1,340 level after the index has rallied strongly by over 12% in the past two weeks to reflect catalysts, such as the U.S. presidential election results, and Pfizer&BioNTechs and Modernas vaccine results from the 3rd phase of their trial. However, we expect domestic politics to begin to have more weigh and put more pressure on the market. In particular, the parliament is deliberating draft proposals for charter rewrite. As usual, there have been rallies and clashes. Also, an escalation is called for today. Meanwhile, we expect the MPC to maintain its policy rate at 0.50% at a meeting today. In this regard, global and vaccine plays may retreat in the near term, while laggards may outperform the market. For example, they include ICT and healthcare.
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17
November
2020
Daily Focus : 17 November 2020,Vaccine and Laggard Play//Accumulate on Dip
(views 452)
We expect the SET to move sideways up to test the 1,360-1,365 level after Moderna disclosed the results of phase 3 of its COVID-19 vaccine trail, which yielded 94% effectiveness. It helped increase confidence that vaccines will be available to all next year. Moreover, it made funds continue to flow into risk assets. However, the SET has sharply rallied in the past two weeks. Therefore, we expect the indexs upside to limit. On November 17-18, keep an eye on the deliberation of the seven draft proposals for charter rewrite. As usual, there will rallies from both sides around the parliament. In the near term, we believe global and vaccine plays will continue to support the market. They include energy, petrochemical, airlines, and tourism. Besides, we expect laggards to outperform the market at this time.
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16
November
2020
Daily Focus : 16 November 2020,Laggard and Earnings Play//Accumulate on Dip
(views 392)
We expect the SET to move in positive territory. Specifically, the index will likely trade within 1,340-1,360 points due to consistently positive investment sentiment and continued fund inflows into risk assets and Asia. Also, we expect support today from the 15 member countries signing of RCEP trade deal. It is the worlds largest free trade zone, accounting for about 30% of the worlds GDP. In general, the 3Q20 earnings results were in line. Today, a factor needs monitoring. It is Thailands 3Q20 GDP, which the market expects to +3.9% Q-Q, -9.1% Y-Y. If it comes in higher than expected, we expect global and cyclical plays to continue to lead the market. However, the SET has rallied sharply and quickly in the last two weeks by over 12%. Therefore, we maintain our call for investors to bet on laggard stocks that reported an above-estimate 3Q20 profit.
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13
November
2020
Daily Focus : 13 November 2020,Laggard and Earnings Play//Accumulate on Dip
(views 446)
In the short run, we expect the SET to move sideways down within 1,320-1,350 points to reduce the heat after its rallies of about 12% in nearly two weeks. Although there is a catalyst from COVID-19 vaccine development, we believe it will take some time before approval and commercial production. In this aspect, we expect it to be in 2Q21. Meanwhile, the Fed chair still expressed concerns over the economic recovery in 4Q20, which remains challenging after the number of infections spikes. Given that, there is still need for the Fed to continue to stimulate the economy through both monetary and fiscal policies. In the near term, we expect both global and vaccine plays to weaken, while laggards and stocks with a healthy profit outlook in 3Q20 and 4Q20 may turn to outperform the market at this time.
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12
November
2020
Daily Focus : 12 November 2020,Laggard and Earnings Play//Accumulate on Dip
(views 410)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,330-1,355 points. Also, the heat will likely decrease after the index has rallied by about 150 points or 12% in the past two weeks or so in respondse to Pfizer & BioNtechs COVID-19 vaccine development. In this regard, technology started to turn to increase again after its sharp correction in the past 2-3 days. Looking ahead, we believe laggard stocks have high potential to outperform the market. Moreover, since the end of 3Q20 earnings season is just around the corner, we expect speculation in stocks with above-estimate earnings results. On vaccine play, since tourism, airlines, airports, and oil have sharply rallied, we recommend our investors wait to place bets on weakness.
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11
November
2020
Daily Focus : 11 November 2020,Vaccine and Big-Cap Play//Accumulate on Dip
(views 472)
We expect the SET to continue to move in positive territory. In particular, it will likely rise to test the 1,350 level (+/-) as the market continues to respond positively to Pfizer&BioNtechs COVID-19 vaccine development. Meanwhile, DR. Fauci said that vaccine could be available to all by April 2021. That made funds continue to flow into risk assets. Since Thailand has high exposure to tourism, we expect the country to benefit the most, once the pandemic eases. Also, domestic politics does not signal violence. Given all that, we expect the SET to outperform others, supported by foreign buying at this time. Top gainers would still be vaccine play (hotels, airlines, and airports) and global play (oil and refinery after crude continued to increase).
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10
November
2020
Daily Focus : 10 November 2020,Vaccine and Big-Cap Plays//Accumulate on Dip
(views 505)
We expect the SET to rally to trade within 1,300-1,320 points due to the positive investment sentiment after Pfizer&BioNtech disclosed vaccine test results that were over 90% effective. It is higher than the acceptable level of 75%. This is a new catalyst that will support the market. Also, it makes massive funds flow out of safe-haven, such as bonds and gold to risk assets. It will compound with the existing positive factor, including Bidens win in the U.S. presidential election. Meanwhile, Thai politics does not signal any alarming violence. Therefore, the SET may outperform in the near term due to the economys high exposure to tourism. Today, we recommend our investors bet on vaccine play, such as hotels, airlines, airports, and commodities, particularly crudes, which sharply increased.
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09
November
2020
Daily Focus : 9 November 2020,Big Cap and Earnings Play//Accumulate at 1,200-1,240
(views 480)
We expect the SET to move in positive territory, in line with regional equity markets. Specifically, we expect it to move within 1,255-1,275 points after Biden won the U.S. presidential election, while the Democrats and Republicans have a majority in a different house. To elaborate, the House of Representatives belongs to the Democrats, while the Senate goes to the Republicans. Therefore, the market believes extreme policies, such as personal income tax hike will not take place. On Thai politics, yesterdays rally did not turn violent, as many feared. This leaves only the new wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. It continued to hit a new high of over 600,000 cases daily, which might put pressure on the economic recovery in 4Q20. However, we believe local institutions buying will continue to provide support. Hence, we recommend our investors bet on big-cap stocks with a healthy 3Q20 profit outlook, such as food and beverages, property, and hospitals.
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06
November
2020
Daily Focus : 6 November 2020, Laggard and Earnings Play//Accumulate at 1,200
(views 390)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,255-1,270 points after yesterdays surge. To elaborate, we expect the market to bet on the U.S. presidential election results, which Biden is the potential winner at this point. Also, the Democrat and Republican will likely win a house by a wide margin. However, this has to wait for the official results and Trumps request for recount in certain states. Meanwhile, the Fed maintained its benchmark rates at 0-0.25% at a meeting last night. Also, the central bank would press on with its QE. Tonight, keep an eye on U.S. non-farm payrolls for October, which the market expects to begin to see a decrease. Also, the latest number of COVID-19 infections soared to a new high of 600,000 cases per day. Given that, we recommend our investors to be selective. Bet on laggard stocks with a healthy 3Q20 profit outlook, such as food and beverages, property, and hospitals.
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05
November
2020
Daily Focus : 5 November 2020,Big Cap and Earnings Play//Accumulate at 1,180-1,200
(views 409)
We expect the SET to continue to be volatile, moving within 1,215-1,233 points as the market waits for clarity from the U.S. presidential election. In the near term, we expect support from Bidens electoral votes. According to the latest data, it exceeded Trump by 264:214. Also, Biden won in battleground states, such as Nevada and Arizona. If Biden wins the election, we view it as positive for Asian equity markets. Meanwhile, crude prices continued to rally, providing support for the energy sector to lead the market. Moreover, domestic politics begins to ease. Given all that, we recommend our investors bet on big-cap stocks due to the prospect of fund inflows. Also, we select mid- to small-sized stocks with a healthy 3Q20 profit outlook, such as food and beverages, property, and hospitals.
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04
November
2020
Daily Focus : 04 November 2020, Big Cap and Earnings Play//Accumulate at 1,180-1,200
(views 391)
We expect the SET to move in positive territory to test the resistance of 1,233-1,240 points, in line with equity markets around the world. They continued to rally due to optimism over the U.S. presidential election results, which we expect clarity starting todays noon.
- If Biden wins and Democrats have a majority in both houses, we view it as positive for equity markets around the globe. If they only rule one of the houses, it will be positive for Asia.
- If Trump wins and Republicans rule in both houses, we view it as positive for U.S. equity markets and negative for Asia. If they only have a majority in one of the houses, the situation will be similar to that of the current one.
- If the majority of both houses comes from a different party than the President, it will be positive for Asia. If the results come in positive for Asia, we recommend our investors bet on big-cap stocks due to the prospect of fund inflows. In the short run, we maintain our call for selective play. In particular, go for stocks with a healthy 3Q20 profit outlook, such as food and beverages, property, and hospitals.
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03
November
2020
Daily Focus : 03 November 2020, Selective and Earnings Play//Accumulate at 1,180-1,200
(views 396)
We expect the SET to move in positive territory, in line with equity markets around the globe. Specifically, we expect the index to trade within 1,200-1,215 points due to the more relaxed investment sentiment after sharp retreats last week. In this regard, we expect energy to support the market due to the strong rebound in crude prices. However, crucial factors need monitoring. First, it is the U.S. presidential election tonight. Second, it is the new wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and its subsequent lockdown in several countries, which we expect to put a cap on economic recovery in 4Q20. In Thailand, although political factor starts to ease, investors still need to monitor if rallies will escalate. Given that, we maintain our selective strategy to invest in necessity-related defensive play, such as food and beverages, ICT, property, and hospitals, particularly ones with a healthy 3Q20 profit outlook. Strategy: Be selective. Invest in defensive stocks that have a strong 3Q20 profit outlook. Accumulate fundamental stocks at the support of 1,180-1,200 points.
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02
November
2020
Daily Focus : 03 November 2020, Selective and Earnings Play//Key Support at 1,180
(views 430)
We expect the SET to move sideways down due to the energy sector. It will likely continue to weigh on the market after crude prices dropped to their five-month low. Besides, the new wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the subsequent lockdown of several countries pressured funds to continue to flee risk assets. However, Asia still has support after Chinas and South Koreas October PMI came in higher than expected. In Thailand, we still view the SETs upside as limited as we wait for U.S. election results, FOMC meeting late this week, and domestic politics to evolve. Given that, we maintain our selective strategy to invest in necessity-related defensive play, such as food and beverages, ICT, property, hospitals, and schools, particularly ones with a healthy 3Q20 profit growth outlook.
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30
October
2020
Daily Focus : 30 October 2020, Selective and Earnings Play//Key Support at 1,180-1,200
(views 390)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways to build up base at the 1,200 level. Although the U.S.s 3Q20 GDP recovered stronger than expected (+33.1% Q-Q), tech companies faced selling after their 3Q20 earnings results. Meanwhile, the new wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly in the U.S. and Europe remains deeply disturbing and could make the economy recover slower than expected again after several countries have resumed their partial lockdown. Therefore, funds continue to flee to the U.S. dollar, which is a safe-haven in the short run. In Thailand, although political heat begins to fade, investors still need to monitor the situation. It will overhang the market and limit the SETs upside at this time. Given that, we maintain our selective strategy to invest in necessity-related defensive play, such as food and beverages, ICT, property, hospitals, and schools, particularly ones with a healthy 3Q20 profit outlook.
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29
October
2020
Daily Focus : 29 October 2020,Selective and Earnings Play//Key Support at 1,180-1,200
(views 352)
We expect the SET to move sideways down to test its crucial support of 1,200 points (+/-) once again, and it may slip to trade below the said level due to the negative investment sentiment. To elaborate, a new wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly in the U.S. and Europe has made some countries resume their partial lockdown and result in a slower-than-expected economic recovery. As a result, funds have fled risk assets, and investors have turned to hold more cash in the short run. We see this from the quick increase in the Dollar Index. In Thailand, although the heat in the political arena begins to decrease, investors still need to keep an eye on the situation. Also, it will continue to overhang the market and limit the SETs upside at this time. Given that, we maintain our selective strategy to invest in necessity-related defensive play, such as food and beverages, ICT, property, hospitals, and schools, particularly ones with a healthy 3Q20 profit outlook.
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28
October
2020
Daily Focus : 28 October 2020,Selective and Earnings Play//Key Support at 1,180-1,200
(views 381)
We expect the SET to move sideways down within 1,200-1,215 points due to the negative investment sentiment. In particular, the market turns to focus on and is worried about the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, as we have anticipated after the number of daily infections accelerated, particularly in the U.S. and Europe. It will likely make the economy recover slower than expected because several countries have resumed their stringent lockdown measures. As a result, funds have fled stocks to bonds in the short run. Also, more of them flew into Asia due to the better COVID-19 situation. However, domestic factors continue to put a cap on the SETs upside at this time due to political uncertainty. Given that, we maintain our selective strategy to invest in necessity-related defensive play, such as food and beverages, ICT, property, hospitals, and schools, particularly ones with a healthy 3Q20 profit outlook.
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27
October
2020
Daily Focus : 27 October 2020,Defensive and Selective Play//Key Support at 1,180-1,200
(views 388)
We expect the SET to move in negative territory within 1,200-1,215 due to the dull investment sentiment. To elaborate, the market turns to focus on the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic after the number of daily infections accelerated to a new peak in months. It could make each country re-impose their control measures and result in a slower-than-expected economic recovery. Therefore, funds will stream out of risk assets to safe-haven in the near term. Also, we expect domestic politics to limit the SETs upside at this time. In this regard, investors need to monitor if and how the protesters will escalate their rally, if the government does not respond to their requests. We still maintain our selective strategy to invest in necessity-related defensive play, such as food and beverages, ICT, property, hospitals, and schools. In particular, we like ones with a healthy 3Q20 profit outlook.
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26
October
2020
Daily Focus : 26 October 2020,Defensive and Selective Play//Key Support at 1,200
(views 412)
We expect the SET to remain highly volatile, moving within 1,200-1,223 points. Today, the investment sentiment still lacks any fresh catalyst. Also, there begins to be pressure from the COVID-19 pandemic, which significantly accelerated in the U.S. and Europe. As a result, crude prices tumbled, and we expect it to put pressure on the energy sector. Meanwhile, the U.S.s new COVID-19 relief bill is unlikely to pass in time before the presidential election on November 3. In particular, it is taking time at the Senate. On the local front, protests continue with the prospect of an escalation. Since we still expect the SETs recovery to limit, we maintain our selective strategy to invest in necessity-related defensive play, such as food and beverage, ICT, property, hospitals, schools, and stocks with a healthy 3Q20 profit outlook.
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22
October
2020
Daily Focus : 22 October 2020,Defensive and Selective Play//Key Support at 1,200
(views 445)
We expect the SET to remain volatile. In particular, we expect it to move within 1,200-1,223 points. Although the political rally did not turn into violence yesterday, investors need to keep an eye on future rallies, particularly if the Prime Minister does not step down within three days as demanded. Hence, the SET could see selling at the markets close before a long holiday. On the international front, we need to monitor the U.S. stimulus talks, which remains uncertain whether a deal will reach in time before the presidential election on November 3 or not. Besides, there were news reports that Iran and Russia are intervening in the election. Given that, we view the SETs recovery as limited and, thus, maintain our selective strategy to invest in necessity-related defensive play, such as food and beverages, ICT, property, hospitals, schools, and stocks with a healthy 3Q20 profit outlook.
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21
October
2020
Daily Focus : 21 October 2020,Defensive and Selective Play//Expect a Rebound at 1,200
(views 429)
We expect the SET to remain highly volatile and move within 1,200-1,220 points. In general, the investment sentiment is fairly positive due to optimism over the progress of the U.S. stimulus talks. However, both parties still could not agree upon, and the Senate seems to disagree. Meanwhile, politics continues to put downward pressure. Today, there will likely be a major rally after the government did not respond to the protestors demands. In this aspect, investors need to monitor if it will escalate and risks violence in the future or not. Besides, the performance of large banks, such as BBL and SCB came in lower than expected. It will provide additional pressure. Since we view the SETs recovery as limited, we maintain our selective strategy to invest in necessity-related defensive play, such as food and beverages, ICT, hospitals, schools, and power generation.
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20
October
2020
Daily Focus : 20 October 2020,Domestic and Defensive Play//Expect a Rebound at 1,200 (+/-)
(views 413)
We expect the SET to remain highly volatile. However, we expect the near-term downside to limit, and the market may see a technical rebound from the crucial support of about 1,200 points. Looking ahead, the main factor that needs monitoring remains domestic politics. In particular, it is the governments stance on the protesters demands, which could result in an escalation tomorrow. On the international front, the market remains optimistic about the stimulus talks in the U.S. tonight. Since we continue to give weight to domestic politics, which could drag on for a long time and puts pressure on the SETs recovery to be limited. We maintain our selective strategy to invest in necessity-related defensive play, such as food and beverages, power generation, ICT, hospitals, and schools.
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19
October
2020
Daily Focus : 19 October 2020,Domestic and Defensive Play//Entry Point 1,200 (+/-)
(views 444)
We expect the SET to continue to move in negative territory and underperform its regional peers. In particular, we expect the index to move within 1,220-1,240 points amid fund outflows. Although there is optimism over talks on the U.S.s new stimulus package, political rallies in Thailand will continue to put pressure, particularly after the clash last Friday. Meanwhile, the number of COVID-19 infections continued to rise at accelerating rates around the world. Moreover, Thailand started to find local infections again in Tak province. Therefore, investors need to keep abreast of the situation, which will continue to put pressure on the SETs recovery. Given all that, we maintain our selective strategy to invest in necessity-related domestic and defensive play, such as food and beverages, power generation, property, ICT, hospitals, and schools.
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16
October
2020
Daily Focus : 16 October 2020, Domestic and Defensive Play//Entry Point 1240-1,200
(views 426)
We expect the SET to continue to be volatile. In particular, we expect the index to move within 1,230-1,250 points as domestic politics, particularly the ongoing rally amid the emergency decree continues to pressure. As a result, there are risks of extreme situations in the future. On the international front, investors still need to keep an eye on both the Brexit talks and the U.S.s new stimulus package, which remains uncertain. Meanwhile, the number of COVID-19 infections around the world escalated, particularly in Europe and the U.S. Given that, we maintain our selective strategy to invest in domestic play, particularly necessity-related defensive ones, such as food and beverages, power generation, property, ICT, hospitals, and schools.
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15
October
2020
Daily Focus : 15 October 2020 :Domestic and Defensive Play//Entry Point 1240-1,200
(views 424)
We expect the SET to continue to be volatile. In particular, the index may retreat to trade within 1,250-1,260 points due mainly to domestic politics. According to the latest data, the Government Gazette has published an emergency decree from 4.00 a.m. today. As a result, the situation risks escalating in the future. Meanwhile, the protestors called for a major rally again today at 4.00 p.m. On the international front, the sentiment is slightly bearish after the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury admitted that a new round of stimulus package might not reach before the presidential election. Given that, we maintain our selective strategy to invest in necessity-related domestic and defensive play, such as food and beverages, power generation, property, ICT, hospitals, and schools, particularly ones with a low PE.
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14
October
2020
Daily Focus : 14 October 2020 :Domestic and Value Play with Entry Point of 1240-1,200
(views 425)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,265-1,280 points. Although the market is disappointed that Johnson&Johnson paused its COVID-19 vaccine trial after participants became ill and Eli Lilly & Co halted its antibody trail due to safety concern, Chinas exports and imports continued to recover in September. They are positive for Chinas supply chain in Asia. If the factors that the market is waiting for is clearer, i.e., the political protest, banks results that are not weaker than expected, and a conclusion to President Trumps stimulus package, the market may rise. Meanwhile, the market will continue to be selective, focusing on mid- to small-cap stocks with a unique story. As for us, we maintain our selective strategy to invest in necessity-related domestic play, such as food and beverages, power generation, property, ICT, hospitals, and schools with a low PE.
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12
October
2020
Daily Focus : 12 October 2020 : Domestic and Value Play with Entry Point of 1240-1,200
(views 389)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,265-1,275 points after it failed to cross 1,275 points last week. In particular, we expect the market to be selective, focusing on mid- to small-sized stocks with a positive story. Banks and energy will continue to put pressure on the market. To elaborate, banks are about to deliver their results, and they will remain weak. Crude prices see pressure after the protests in the oil industry in Norway have ended and the number of rigs in the U.S. has increased for three weeks in a row. The planned political rally on October 14 and the Brexit talks should not influence the domestic market. On the international level, a conclusion to President Trumps stimulus package will serve as a catalyst for the global equity market. We maintain our selective strategy to invest in necessity-related domestic play, such as food and beverages, power generation, property, ICT, hospitals, and schools with a low PE.
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09
October
2020
Daily Focus : 9 October 2020 : Domestic and Value Play//Entry Point 1240//1,200
(views 400)
We expect the SET to move sideways up within 1,270-1,285 points. In this regard, the energy sector will support the market in line with crude prices, which increased due to Hurricane Delta. Besides, the market is optimistic about the U.S.s stimulus package, which will be out shortly. However, we view the markets upside as limited after the index rallied for three consecutive days by over 30 points. Moreover, Thailand is about to be on a public holiday, while the market still needs to monitor domestic factors next week. In particular, the planned political rally on October 14 could put pressure on the market. Given that, we maintain our selective strategy to invest in necessity-related domestic play, such as food and beverages, power generation, property, ICT, hospitals, and schools, particularly ones with a low PE. In the near term, commerce may outperform the market due to the governments stimulus measures.
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08
October
2020
Daily Focus : 8 October 2020 : Domestic and Value Play//Entry Point 1240//1,200
(views 430)
We expect the SET to move sideways up within 1,260-1,270 points due to easing investment sentiment. In the near term, funds will turn to flow back into risk assets once again as the market bet on the U.S.s economci stimulus measures that will be out shortly. The move is in tandem with the Feds meeting report indicating that the economy is at risk if the stimulus measures are slow and insufficient. Similarly, Thailands CESA approved a shopping stimulus measure allowing shoppers to use year-end shopping receipts as a tax deductible. However, the COVID-19 pandemic situation on both sides of the Atlantics remains a concern due to the spike in the number of infections, which puts pressure on economic recovery. Besides, we still need to pray that a vaccine becomes available quickly. Given that, we expect the SETs upside to begin to limit and maintain our selective strategy to invest in necessity-related domestic play, such as food and beverages, power generation, property, ICT, hospitals, and schools, particularly ones with a low PE. In this regard, commerce may outperform in the near term due to the shopping stimulus measure.
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07
October
2020
Daily Focus : 7 October 2020 : Selective and Value Play//Key Entry Point = 1,200+-
(views 395)
We expect the SET to move sideways down within 1,240-1,245 points after its surge yesterday. In particular, we expect energy and petrochemical to see profit-taking after crude prices started to retreat. The main pressure will come from the U.S. after President Trump has called off the stimulus talk with the Democrats until after the election on November 3, while the view of the Feds chief still reiterated the need for economic stimulus, particularly fiscal ones. As a result, fund flows were volatile and turned to stream out of risk assets once again. In Thailand, keep an eye on a CESA meeting today for year-end stimulus measures. Globally, the COVID-19 situation is still a concern. Besides, it risks deteriorating due to the gradually colder weather condition. Given that, we maintain our selective strategy to invest in necessity-related stocks, such as food and beverages, power generation, property, ICT, hospitals, and schools. In particular, pick ones with a low PE.
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06
October
2020
Daily Focus : 6 October 2020 : Selective and Value Play//Key Entry Point = 1,200
(views 430)
We expect the SET to move in positive territory to test the 1,250-1,253 level due to the investment sentiment. It continues to ease after President Trump had been discharged out of the hospital after he was admitted for COVID-19 treatments since late last week. As a result, funds turned to flow into risk assets once again. We see this from the weakened Dollar Index and the U.S. 10-year bond yield, which surged to its five-week peak at 0.77%. Meanwhile, we expect the energy sector to benefit from increased crude prices. On the local front, we still need to keep an eye on stimulus measures that the government will introduce in the rest of this year to support the economy while waiting for the success of COVID-19 vaccines. In this regard, the BoT expects 2H20 GDP at -8.5% Y-Y. On the international front, investors need to monitor the COVID-19 pandemic, which could worsen due to gradually cold weather. Given all that, we maintain our selective strategies to invest in necessity-related sectors, such as food and beverages, power generation, property, ICT, hospitals, and schools, particularly ones with a low PE.
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05
October
2020
Daily Focus : 5 October 2020: Selective and Value Play//Key Entry Point = 1,200
(views 374)
We expect the SET to move sideways up within 1,240-1,250 points. Although U.S. employment data for September came in lower than expected at 660,000 jobs (vs. the consensus of 850,000 jobs), the unemployment rate improved to 7.9%. Besides, the investment sentiment improved after there were news reports that President Trump might get a discharge from the hospital today. However, we still believe that the indexs upside remains limited due to the relatively slow economic recovery (vs. the BoTs 2H20E GDP of -8.5% Y-Y) as the number of COVID-19 infections around the world continues to rise. Also, it is entering spring, and the colder weather could worsen the situation. Given all that, we maintain our selective strategy to invest in stocks with specific catalysts and necessity-related, such as food and beverages, power generation, property, ICT, hospitals, and schools, particularly ones with a low PE
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02
October
2020
Daily Focus : 2 October 2020,Selective and Value Play//Key Entry Point = 1,200
(views 431)
We expect the SET to move sideways to sideways down within 1,240-1,250 points. In this regard, we expect energy to drag after crude prices tumbled due to oversupply concerns after the demand remained weak, in line with economic recovery. Also, OPECs output increased. Although the U.S. House of Representatives passed the US$2.2tn stimulus package with 214-207 votes, they could not agree on details. Hence, we believe the bill will not pass the Senate where the Republican holds the majority. Tonight, keep an eye on U.S. non-farm payrolls in September. Since we expect market volatility to remain high, we maintain our selective strategy. Invest in stocks with specific catalysts and necessity-related, such as food and beverages, power generation, hospitals, property, and schools, particularly ones with a low PE.
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01
October
2020
Daily Focus : 1 October 2020,Selective and Value Play//Key Entry Point = 1,200
(views 454)
We expect the SET to move within 1,230-1,245 points. In the near term, there could be a technical rebound after yesterdays sharp fall. On the international front, investors still need to keep an eye on the U.S. presidential election and the countrys planned US$2.2tn COVID-19 relief package. However, the overall market still lacks fresh catalysts to stimulate. Today, the SET has adjusted its ceiling/floor and short sell rules back to the pre-COVID-19 state. This could increase the volatility of each stock. Usually, the market retreated in October in the year that held the U.S. presidential election. Given that, we maintain our selective strategy to invest in stocks with specific catalysts. Focus on necessity-related stocks, such as food and beverages, power generation, ICT, hospitals, property, and schools. In particular, pick ones with a low PE.
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30
September
2020
Daily Focus : 30 September 2020,Selective and Value Play//Accumulate at 1,240
(views 417)
We expect the SET to decrease to the 1,250 level (+/-) due to the investment sentiment, which is rather dull. In particular, we expect the energy sector to weigh on the market after crude prices tumbled. Also, investors sell risk assets in the short run as seen from the quick rally in the Dollar Index while waiting for one crucial factor this morning, which is President Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Bidens first presidential debate. Also, the market will monitor the developments of the planned U.S.s $2.2tn COVID-19 relief package and Brexit. Given that, we expect the market to remain volatile in the near term. Also, we maintain our selective strategy for stocks with specific catalysts. Our focus remains on necessity play, such as food and beverage, power generation, ICT, hospitals, property, and schools, particularly ones with a low PE.
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29
September
2020
Daily Focus : 29 September 2020, Selective and Value Play//Accumulate at 1,240-1,250
(views 389)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways up. In particular, the index may rise to test the 1270 level (+/-) due to the investment sentiment, which remains fairly bright. Besides, funds will continue to stream into risk assets since the Dollar Index weakened. In this regard, we expect the energy sector to support the market, in line with the recovery in crude prices. Moreover, the market remains optimistic about the U.S.s new round of massive COVID-19 relief package, which could amount to US$2.4tn. In Thailand, we expect the cabinet to approve the half-half co-payment relief program at the meeting today to stimulate the economy at the grassroots level. Politics looks set to ease, while the likelihood of a new finance minister in October to drive the economy will help support confidence. We see this from local institutions, which turned to register a net buy position in the equity market. Given that, we maintain our selective strategy and recommend our investors invest in stocks with specific catalysts. Focus on ones related to necessities, such as food and beverages, power generation, ICT, hospitals, property, and schools. In particular, pick ones with undemanding PE.
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28
September
2020
Daily Focus : 28 September 2020, Selective and Value Play//Accumulate at 1,240-1,250
(views 404)
We expect the SET to see a technical rebound in the near term to 1,250-1,260 points after the index tested its support of 1,240 points in the last two days. In general, the investment sentiment slightly relaxes since the market is optimistic about Chinas economic recovery and the prospect of a new round of COVID-19 relief packages, which is worth US$2.4tn in the U.S. For Thailands politics, we believe market concern will somewhat ease after the changes in the Phue Thai Partys strategic chief and executive directors. As a result, we expect the planned protest in October over the charter amendment will not be strong as previously thought. On the economic front, the economy remains fragile. However, the Prime Minister confirms the country will have its new finance minister in October. Given that, we maintain our selective strategy and suggest that our investors invest in stocks with specific catalysts as well as defensive shares related to necessities, such as food, beverages, power generation, ICT, hospitals, property, and schools. In particular, pick ones with a low PE.
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25
September
2020
Daily Focus : 25 September 2020,Selective and Value Play//Accumulate at 1,240-1,250
(views 454)
We expect a short-term technical rebound after four-day losing streak. However, we believe the index would not pass through its resistance of 1,255-1,260 points. House Democrats are preparing a US$2.4 trillion COVID-19 relief package next week. A rising number of global coronavirus cases especially in Europe and US, together with domestic political in Thailand continue to pressure investment sentiment. To elaborate, MPs and senators yesterday approved a proposal to set up a study committee. The vote on whether to accept the bills is postponed by 30 days. Protesters would hold another rally in October after the delayed decision on constitutional amendments. The index is still fragile. We maintain our strategy for investors to selectively invest in stocks with specific catalysts and necessity-related, such as food and beverages, power generation, hospitals, property, and education. In particular, pick ones with undemanding valuation.
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24
September
2020
Daily Focus : 24 September 2020,Selective and Value Play//Accumulate on Dip
(views 424)
We expect the SET to move sideways down within 1,250-1,260 points following overnight sharp drop on Wall Street. Investors have faced several headwinds, including a rising number of global coronavirus cases and uncertain global economic recovery despite 10 firms are developing phase 3 of COVID-19 vaccines. Fed’s Powell urged Congress to provide more fiscal stimulus. In Thailand, investors keep eyes on protesters calls for amending constitution today. The index is still fragile. We maintain our strategy for investors to selectively invest in stocks with specific catalysts and necessity-related, such as food and beverages, power generation, hospitals, and property. In particular, pick ones with undemanding valuation.
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23
September
2020
Daily Focus : 23 September 2020,Selective and Value Play//Accumulate on Dip
(views 433)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,260-1,275 points. Investors are still concerns over the pandemic that spreads rapidly in Europe and Fed’s Powell expressed concerns over the US economy. US House temporarily passed spending bill to avert government shutdown. In Thailand, we expect that MPC will keep its policy rates unchanged at 0.50% (with chance to ease further). In all, the equity market sentiment is still weak and volatile. Given that, we maintain our strategy for investors to selectively invest in stocks with specific catalysts and necessity-related, such as food and beverages, power generation, hospitals, and property. In particular, pick ones with undemanding valuation.
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22
September
2020
Daily Focus : 22 September 2020,Selective and Value Play//Accumulate on Dip
(views 433)
We expect the SET to move sideways down within 1,260-1,275 points. Investment sentiment turns negative on reports that several global banks allegedly moved large sums of suspicious funds of US$2 trillion and four major Thai banks may involve. Coronavirus spreads rapidly in Europe and UK is likely to impose lockdown again. Jerome Powell said US economy faces long and uncertain recovery. These factors trigger risk aversion and investors hold more cash. Given that, we maintain our strategy for investors to selectively invest in stocks with specific catalysts and necessity-related, such as food and beverages, power generation, hospitals, and property. In particular, pick ones with undemanding valuation.
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21
September
2020
Daily Focus : 21 September 2020,Selective and Value Play//Accumulate on Dip
(views 379)
We expect the SET to move sideways and sideways up within 1,280-1,295 points. In particular, the sentiment is lifted by yesterday political rally was not protracted and parliament passes budget bill at final reading. Moreover Trump agrees to TikTok deal and US judge halts Trump’s WeChat ban should also reduce pressure. COVID-19 in Europe is still in serious situation. Given that, we maintain our strategy for investors to selectively invest in stocks with specific catalysts and necessity-related, such as food and beverages, power generation, hospitals, and property. In particular, pick ones with undemanding valuation.
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18
September
2020
Daily Focus : 18 September 2020,Selective and Value Play//Accumulate on Dip
(views 389)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,280-1,290 points. In particular, we expect energy to continue to support the market because crude prices continued to increase after the OPEC+ meeting pledged yesterday that they would continue to comply with their output cut agreement of 7.7mn barrels per day. Nonetheless, we expect the markets upside to remain limited. In Thailand, investors need to monitor one crucial factor, i.e. the political rally tomorrow which remains largely uncertain and serves as a risk. In Europe, the COVID-19 situation deteriorated. Given that, we maintain our strategy for investors to selectively invest in stocks with specific catalysts and necessity-related, such as food and beverages, power generation, hospitals, and property. In particular, pick ones with undemanding valuation.
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17
September
2020
Daily Focus : 17 September 2020,Selective and Value Play//Accumulate on Dip
(views 397)
We expect the SET to move sideways. In this regard, energy will lead due to increased crude prices due to Hurricane Sally. Today, keep an eye on OPEC+ meeting where the market expects them to review output cut to see if each country complied. However, we view that the upside is more limited. Also, the SET will not cross its crucial resistance of 1,300 points. Yesterday, although FOMC signaled that they would keep policy rates low until 2023, uncertainty remains over the economic recovery if it will continue to beat forecasts. Besides, there was no additional stimulus measure. Given that, we maintain our investment strategy that investors selectively invest in stocks with specific catalysts and necessity-related, such as food and beverages, power generation, hospitals, and ICT. In particular, pick ones with undemanding valuation.
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16
September
2020
Daily Focus : 16 September 2020,Selective and Value Play//Accumulate on Dip
(views 409)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,280-1,293 points after it rallied sharply yesterday. In particular, energy could see support from crude prices, which recovered due to Hurricane Sally, which slowly crawled toward the Gulf of Mexico. Tonight, one crucial factor needs monitoring. It is FOMC meetings, where the market expects policymakers to maintain their monetary policy. In Thailand, the parliament will begin to deliberate the 2nd and 3rd of the draft 2021 budget bill today. In general, the market still lacks any clear fresh catalyst. As a result, we maintain our call investors to be selective. Invest in stocks with specific catalysts and necessity-related, such as food and beverages, power generation, hospitals, and ICT. In particular, pick ones with inexpensive valuation.
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15
September
2020
Daily Focus : 15 September 2020,Selective and Value Play//Accumulate on Dip
(views 420)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,265-1,280 points since there is no fresh catalyst to provide support. Domestic politics continues to put pressure. Specifically, the 2021 budget is delayed, and protestors plan a big rally on September 19. Internationally, investors still need to monitor the U.S.-China situation. According to the latest information, although ByteDance is about to sell TikToks business in the U.S. to Oracle, China is moving to block the deal and would rather have it shut down than be sold. Given that, we continue to focus investment in necessity-related stocks, such as food, beverages, power generation, hospitals, and ICT, particularly ones with undemanding valuation.
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14
September
2020
Daily Focus : 14 September 2020, Selective and Value Play//Accumulate on Dip
(views 466)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,275-1,285 points, underperforming its regional peers rallies. Although there was positive news about COVID-19 vaccine development after AstraZeneca had resumed its phase 3 trials and Pfizers CEO expected a vaccine by the end of this year, domestic factors continue to pressure. In particular, politics remains largely uncertain both in and outside the parliament. Besides, the 2021 budget is late and will not be available in time for October 1. Together they will put pressure on investor confidence. Given that, we maintain our call for investors to bet on necessity-related stocks, such as food, beverages, power generation, hospitals, and ICT.
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11
September
2020
Daily Focus : 11 September 2020,Selective and Value Play//Accumulate on Dip
(views 468)
We expect the SET to move sideways down within 1,280-1,290 points, pressured by the higher-than-expected U.S. weekly jobless claims. Meanwhile, ECB kept its monetary policy on hold. Although the central bank had a more bullish view of the eurozones GDP contraction, the market did not respond positively. Also, they hope for further policy easing in the remaining period of this year. In Thailand, politics, both inside and outside the parliament, continues to pressure. In particular, there are charter amendment and the passing of the 2021 draft budget bill in the 2nd and 3rd reading within this month. Given that, we maintain our call for investors to invest in necessity-related stocks, such as food, beverages, power generation, hospitals, and ICT.
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10
September
2020
Daily Focus : 10 September 2020,Defensive and Value Play//Accumulate on Dip
(views 547)
We expect the SET to continue to bounce back due to the investment sentiment. It is more relaxed after there was buyback in tech shares. However, we believe the index will not be able to cross its resistance of 1,300 points still. Today, crucial factors need monitoring. They include an ECB meeting where the market expects the central bank to maintain its monetary policy. However, the COVID-19 situation escalates in the region, resulting in increased economic risks. Besides, additional easing is likely in the remaining period of this year. In Thailand, politics continues to pressure. Given that, we maintain our call for investors to focus on necessity-related stocks, such as food, beverages, power generation, hospitals, and ICT.
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09
September
2020
Daily Focus : 9 September 2020, Defensive and Value Plays//Next Main Support 1250 (+/-)
(views 566)
We expect the SET to continue to plummet to the 1,270 level (+/-) as the negative sentiment persists after U.S. equity markets continued to fall due to selling in tech companies. Also, AstraZeneca put its COVID-19 vaccine trials on hold after a serious adverse event. Crude continued to drop by over 7% due to concerns over weak demand. As a result, we expect the energy sector to continue to drag. Since funds will stream out of risk assets in the near term, we continue to focus our investment on defensive necessity-related sectors, such as food and beverage, power generation, and hospitals, particularly ones with low PE and high dividend yield.
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08
September
2020
Daily Focus : 8 September 2020, Selective and Laggard Play//Accumulate at 1,300 (+/-)
(views 545)
We expect the SET to open down to 1,295-1,300 points, catching up international markets slump while Thailand was on holiday. In this regard, we expect we expect energy to be the main drag due to crude price falls after Saudi Arabia cut its prices to reflect the persistently weak demand. Although we expect buyback momentum that can make the index somewhat rebound, it will be limited. Pressure remains the U.S.-China tensions after Washington is threatening to ban SMIC. Domestically, politics is also another crucial risk. Given that, we maintain our call for investors to continue to accumulate on weakness. In this regard, we continue to prefer necessity-related sectors.
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03
September
2020
Daily Focus : 3 September 2020, Selective and Laggard Play//Accumulate around 1,300 (+-)
(views 472)
We expect the SET to move sideways up within 1,310-1,325 points due to the positive sentiment from U.S. equity markets strong rally. However, we expect trading volume to be thin and the Thai equity market to underperform its regional peers due to the upcoming long holiday. Also, Thai politics remains uncertain both from within the cabinet and outside the parliament. On Friday night, crucial factors need monitoring. It is U.S. non-farm payrolls in August, which the market expects to increase by 1.4mn. Given that, we maintain our call for investors to wait for the market to retreat to the 1,300 level to accumulate. In this regard, continue to be selective and focus on laggard stocks with specific catalysts.
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02
September
2020
Daily Focus : 2 September 2020, Selective and Laggard Play//Accumulate around 1,300 (+-)
(views 444)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways within 1,300-1,310 points and underperform its regional peers. Although PMI around the world signaled an economic recovery, Thai equities see specific pressure due to government stability after Mr. Predee Daochais resignation as the Finance Minister amid the COVID-19 crisis when the country needs drive from the governments stimulus policy. In this regard, the market will continue to monitor whether who will step in to replace Mr. Predee. Today, keep an eye on a CESA meeting whether there will be an economic stimulus or not and, if yes, what they will be. In this regard, we maintain our call for investors to invest in sectors or stocks with specific catalysts. Also, they should be more defensive.
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01
September
2020
Daily Focus : 1 September 2020,Selective and Laggard Play//Accumulate at around 1,300 (+/-)
(views 463)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways down within 1,300-1,320 points. To elaborate, there began to be selling in equity markets around the world after their strong rallies in August. Also, the market lacks any fresh catalyst in the near term. Today, a few factors need monitoring. They include the manufacturing PMI and ISM for August of China, the U.S.A., and the eurozone. In this regard, we continue to focus our investments on the domestic and laggard plays that benefit from Baht appreciation. Also, we expect additional stimulus at a CESA meeting tomorrow.
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31
August
2020
Daily Focus :31 August 2020,Selective and Laggard Play//Accumulate on Dip
(views 400)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways to sideways up within 1,315-1,330 points, supported by the strong U.S. economic data. This week, the factors that need monitoring include August PMI of the key economies around the world and the U.S. non-farm payrolls. Also, we expect selling in some large-cap stocks due to the MSCI rebalance which becomes effective today. In this regard, Thailands weight edges down. In Thailand, politics remains a risk. Given that, we maintain our call for investors to focus investment on the domestic
laggard play, betting on additional stimulus at a government meeting today. It could be positive for the commerce sector, while the Baht appreciation benefitsn power generation.
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28
August
2020
Daily Focus :28 August 2020,Selective and Laggard Play//Accumulate on Dip
(views 492)
We expect the SET to move sideways up within 1,320-1,335 points. The overall investment sentiment remains relaxed after the Fed announced average inflation targeting at 2%, as expected at the Jackson Hold Symposium overnight, which is positive for risk assets in the long run since interest rates will remain low. Tonight, keep a close eye on President Trumps RNC speech which the market expects to express an aggressive stance towards China. In this regard, we continue to expect sector and stock rotations to laggards and those benefiting from Baht appreciation, particularly power generation which began to see heavy buying yesterday. On vaccine development which the market expects them in the next 1-2 months, we expect it to support sentiment for the global play.
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27
August
2020
Daily Focus :27 August 2020,SSelective Buy//Accumulate on Dip
(views 484)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways within 1,300-1,330 points as investors continue to monitor crucial factors. They include the following. First, it is President Trumps RNC speech on Friday night which the market expects an aggressive stance on China. Second, it is the Feds monetary policy, particularly its inflation target at the Jackson Hole Symposium on August 27-28 whether the U.S. central bank will adopt a more flexible average inflation target as the market has anticipated or not since a more relaxed monetary policy will support the Dollar Index to ease (and the Baht to increase). This will benefit stocks with high U.S. dollar-denominated loan exposure most. In particular, it will be helpful for power generation which has been lagging behind peers in the past 1-2 months to turn to outperform the market.
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26
August
2020
Daily Focus : 26 August 2020,Selective Buy//Accumulate on Dip
(views 471)
We expect the SET to move sideways after the index failed to breach its resistance of 1,328 points. In this regard, we expect the SETs movement to be within 1,300-1,330 points at this time. In general, investment sentiment has not turned negative. In particular, the market remains optimistic about COVID-19 vaccines and global economic recovery. Also, both the U.S. and China reiterated their commitment to phase one of their trade agreement. However, crucial factors need monitoring late this week. They include the Feds view on the economy and its monetary policy. In particular, the market will look for clues on inflation at the Jackson Hole Symposium held on August 27-28. Moreover, investors should keep an eye on President Trumps RNC speech which the market expects to exhibit hostility towards China. Strategically, we continue to recommend that investors focus investment on stocks with a healthy profit outlook in 2H20 through to 2021, particularly laggards. Industry-wise, we still prefer food and beverages, low-rise property developers, ICT, healthcare, and power generation. On COVID-19 vaccines, be on alert for results of phase 3 of the experiments in the U.S. and Europe in the next 1-2 months. If they come in positive, bet on the global play. Strategy: Speculate on stocks
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25
August
2020
Daily Focus : 25 August 2020,Selective Buy//Accumulate on Dip
(views 460)
We expect the SET to continue to recover to test the range of 1,325-1,330 points due to the bright investment sentiment. In particular, the market remains optimistic about both the COVID-19 vaccine development and the use of plasma as a cure. As a result, more funds flowed into risk assets. This week, several crucial factors need monitoring. They include the Feds economic view and monetary policy at the Jackson Hole Symposium on August 27-28 as well as the fixing of a review date for phase one of the U.S.-China trade agreement. Strategically, we maintain our call for investors to invest in stocks with a consistently solid profit outlook from 2H20 to 2021 and, particularly, laggard ones. Industry-wise, we continue to prefer food and beverages, low-rise property developers, ICT, healthcare, and power generation. On the COVID-19 vaccine, keep an eye on the results of phase 3 of the experiment in the U.S. and Europe in the next 1-2 months. If they come in positive, we recommend our investors bet on the global play.
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24
August
2020
Daily Focus : 24 August 2020,Selective Buy//Accumulate on Dip
(views 479)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,290-1,308 points after there is yet any fresh catalyst to provide stimulus. Today, one crucial factor needs monitoring. It is the exports in July which the market expects to drop by 17.8% Y-Y. This week, eye at the fixing of a review on phase one of the U.S.-China trade agreement after the completion of its six-month period. Also, monitor the Feds view and hint on its monetary policy at the annual symposium in Jackson Hole on August 27-28. Given that, we continue to focus investment on stocks with specific catalysts and laggards. In particular, we prefer domestic play and necessity-related names, such as food and beverages, low-rise property developers, ICT, hospitals, and power generation. On COVID-19 vaccine development, monitor the results of phase 3 of the experiments in the U.S. and Europe in the next 1-2 months. If they come in positive, bet on the global play.
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21
August
2020
Daily Focus : 21 August 2020,Selective and Laggard Play//Accumulate on Dip
(views 524)
We expect the SET to see a technical rebound in the near term to 1,305 points (+/-) after it tumbled for two straight days, supported by recoveries in the region as well as in the U.S. However, we expect the gain to be modest as the market keeps its eye on a review of phase one of the U.S.-China trade agreement, which we expect a new date shortly. In Thailand, we expect market anxiety to ease after the two confirmed COVID-19 cases were just a decay. However, investors still need to closely monitor politics which begins to play a more important role. Given that, stocks with specific catalysts and laggards remain our focal point. Focus on domestic play and necessity-related, such as food and beverages, low-rise property, ICT, hospitals, and power generation. On COVID-19 vaccines, eye at the news on the results of phase three of the experiments in the U.S. and Europe in the next 1-2 months. If they come in positive, bet on the global play.
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20
August
2020
Daily Focus : 20 August 2020,Selective and Laggard Plays//Accumulate on Dip at around 1,300 (+/-)
(views 625)
We expect the SET to short-term technical rebound in a range of 1,320 +/-. There are still several factors pressured the market. The Fed’s July meeting minutes showed concerns that the ongoing coronavirus pandemic could weigh heavily on economic activity. In Thailand, domestic politics is another crucial risk after protests call to dissolve the parliament and amend the constitution. Given that, we continue to focus investment on the domestic play and necessity-related stocks, such as food and beverages, low-rise property, ICT, hospital, and power generation. On COVID-19, keep an eye on the development of phase 3 of vaccine tests on both sides of the Atlantic in the next 1-2 months. If they come in positive, bet on the global play in the short run.
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19
August
2020
Daily Focus : 19 August 2020, Selective and Laggard Plays//Accumulate on Dip at around 1,300 (+/-)
(views 526)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways within 1,320-1,340 points. In general, the market continues to lack any fresh catalyst. There will be sector and stock rotation to laggards and those with specific catalysts. However, the U.S.-China tension still needs monitoring. In particular, the U.S. continues to attack China. In Thailand, domestic politics is another crucial risk after protests begin to spread. Given that, we continue to focus investment on the domestic play and necessity-related stocks, such as food and beverages, low-rise property, ICT, hospital, and power generation. On COVID-19, keep an eye on the development of phase 3 of vaccine tests on both sides of the Atlantic in the next 1-2 months. If they come in positive, bet on the global play in the short run.
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18
August
2020
Daily Focus : 18 August 2020, Selective Buy//Accumulate on Dip around 1,300+-
(views 476)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,315-1,335 points. The energy sector could provide support for the market because crude prices rallied after OPEC+ were able to cut their output, as agreed. Besides, the delay in the trade talk gives China time to import more U.S. products. However, pressure remains. In particular, the U.S. continues to play hardball with China. In its latest move, Washington has tightened restrictions on Huaweis access to U.S. chips. In Thailand, politics remains a risk after protests began to spread. Given that, we maintain our call for investors to invest in domestic play and necessity-related stocks, including food, low-rise property, ICT hospital, and power generation. If there is positive news about phase 3 of vaccine developments in the U.S. and Europe, we recommend that investors bet on global play in the near term.
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17
August
2020
Daily Focus : 17 August 2020,Laggard Play//Accumulate on Dip at around 1,300 (+/-)
(views 515)
We expect the SET to move sideways down within 1,310-1,330 points since the U.S.-China tension increases after the Saturday meeting was postponed indefinitely. Also, President Trump has signed an order forcing ByteDance to sell or spin off its U.S. businesses within 90 days. This morning, Japan reported that 2Q20 GDP sharply contracted by 27.8% Y-Y, while investors continue to keep their eye on Thailands 2Q20 GDP. Besides, yesterdays student rally remained at a critical juncture. Given that, we expect laggard sectors to outperform the SET. They include banks, finance, transport, petrochemical, healthcare, and ICT.
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14
August
2020
Daily Focus : 14 August 2020,Laggard Play//Accumulate on Dip at around 1,300 (+/-)
(views 532)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,340-1,350 points as the market lacks any fresh catalyst to provide support. Although the U.S. jobless claims came in lower than expected at 960,000, Congress was yet to reach a deal on a new round of stimulus. Looking ahead, the market will continue to keep an eye on the meeting between the U.S. and China trade delegates in the middle of this month to review phase one of their trade agreement. On the positive developments of COVID-19 vaccines, we recommend our investors monitor the results of phase 3 of the experiments in the U.S. and Europe which are due out in the next 1-2 months. If they are successful, they will help restore market confidence more than that of Russia. As a result, we maintain our view that laggard industries may outperform the market. They include banks, finance, transport, petrochemical, healthcare, and ICT.
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13
August
2020
Daily Focus : 13 August 2020,Laggard Play//Accumulate at around 1,300 (+/-)
(views 511)
We expect the SET to move in the positive territory within 1,345-1,350 points due to positive investment sentiments. In particular, 2Q20 corporate earnings have been higher than expected so far. Also, there are positive developments after Russia claimed the worlds first coronavirus vaccine. Also, the U.S. has signed contracts to buy vaccines from various companies, such as Moderna, Pfizer, and Johnson & Johnson. As a result, more funds flowed out of safe-haven assets, i.e., gold and government bonds to risk assets. Also, we believe that laggard industries, e.g., banks,finance, transport, petrochemical, tourism, and healthcare may outperform the market.
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11
August
2020
Daily Focus : 11 August 2020,Selective and Earnings Plays//Accumulate at around 1,300 (+/-)
(views 526)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways within 1,320-1,330 points amid persistently thin trading volume due to a bank holiday tomorrow.Meanwhile, the U.S.-China tension remains a crucial factor that needs monitoring since China has started to retaliate. In particular, Beijing sanctioned 11 U.S. politicians,while delegates from both sides are due to meet on August 15 to review phase one of their trade agreement. This could put pressure on the market. Since the indexs movement will be narrow, we expect both buying and speculation momentum to center on stocks with 2Q20 earnings results. If the index decreases to trade close to the 1,300 level (+/-), we still view it as an opportunity to accumulate for mid- to long-term investments. However, if there are positive developments in phase 3 of a coronavirus vaccine, we recommend our investors instantly switch to global play.
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10
August
2020
Daily Focus : 10 August 2020,Selective and Earnings Plays//Accumulate at around 1,300 (+/-)
(views 596)
S. non-farm payrolls in July came in higher than expected at 1.76mn, Congress was yet to reach a deal on a new round of economic stimulus. As a result, President Trump signed an executive order to extend the USD400/week unemployment benefit as well as delay tax payment and student loan repayment. Looking ahead, investors should keep an eye on the U.S.-China tensions. In this regard, the market expects China to retaliate on the U.S. ban on TikTok and WeChat. Meanwhile, their delegates are due to meet on August 15 to assess the results of phase one of their trade agreement. In Thailand, since there is still no catalyst, our investors should keep an eye on 2Q20 earnings results. On this front, we recommend our investors to be selective. If the index decreases to trade close to the 1,300 level (+/-), it remains an opportunity to accumulate for mid- to long-term investments. However, if there are positive developments in phase 3 of a coronavirus vaccine, we recommend our investors instantly switch to global play.
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07
August
2020
Daily Focus : 7 August 2020,Selective and Earnings Plays//Accumulate at around 1,300 (+/-)
(views 515)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways within 1,325-1,345 points. Although the U.S. weekly jobless claims decreased to 1.2mn, investors still need to monitor two crucial factors tonight. They include U.S. non-farm payrolls (which the market expects to increase by 1.6mn) and unemployment rate (which the market expects at 10.5%). Moreover, the market will keep a close eye on the talks over the U.S.s new round of economic stimulus whether there will be a conclusion this week or not. In the middle of the month, the U.S. and China trade delegations will meet to assess the results of phase one of their trade agreement. This could put pressure on the investment sentiment. In Thailand, wait for economic stimulus after the cabinet shakeup has completed. In the near term, we maintain our call for investors to bet on stocks with a healthy 2Q20 profit outlook. Names are provided below. Accumulate fundamental stocks if the index decreases to trade close to the 1,300 level (+/-). However, if there are positive developments in phase 3 of a coronavirus vaccine, we
recommend our investors instantly switch to global play.
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06
August
2020
Daily Focus : 6 August 2020,Selective and Earnings Plays//Accumulate at around 1,300 (+/-)
(views 507)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,330-1,345 points as the market is optimistic about the U.S.s new stimulus package. It is worth US$1bn and is expected to conclude by this week. Nonetheless, pressure persists and needs monitoring. Amid the U.S.-China tensions, their trade delegates will meet in the middle of August after six months of phase one of their trade agreement. In the U.S., privatesector employment in July increased by just 167,000, which is sharply lower than expected. As a result, investors need to keep an eye on U.S. non-farm payrolls tomorrow night. In Thailand, lock eyes on the real sectors 2Q20 earnings results. They will come in the next 1-2 weeks, and we expect them to be generally lackluster. In the near term, continue to bet on stocks with a healthy 2Q20 profit outlook. If the index decreases to trade close to the 1,300 level (+/-), it remains an opportunity to
accumulate fundamental stocks. However, if there are positive developments in phase 3 of a coronavirus vaccine, we recommend our investors instantly switch to global play
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05
August
2020
Daily Focus : 5 August 2020,Selective and Earnings Plays//Accumulate at around 1,300 (+/-)
(views 540)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,320-1,340 points.The U.S.-China tensions continue to put a lid on the investment sentiment after China has threatened to retaliate the U.S.s decision on TikTok. Meanwhile, trade delegates from both parties are preparing to meet in the middle of August after six months of phase one of the trade agreement. In this regard, Chinas imports of agricultural products and energy remain below the agreed level. In Thailand, keep a close eye on the MPC meeting today. At the meeting, we expect the committee to keep its policy rate unchanged and wait for the cabinet to stimulate the economy through fiscal stimulus. In the next 1-2 weeks, the real sector is due to deliver more 2Q20 results that will be lackluster. Given that, we still see the markets upside as limited. In the near term, continue to bet on stocks with a healthy 2Q20 profit outlook. If the index
decreases to trade close to the 1,300 level (+/-), it remains an opportunity to accumulate fundamental stocks. However, if there are positive developments in phase 3 of a coronavirus vaccine, we recommend our investors instantly switch to global play.
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04
August
2020
Daily Focus : 4 August 2020,Selective and Earnings Plays//Accumulate at around 1,300 (+/-)
(views 510)
We expect the SET to bounce back and move sideways within a range of 1,320-1,340 points due to the investment sentiment which is more relaxed. The market sees support from the eurozones manufacturing PMI in July which came in higher than expected, while the number of new COVID-19 infections started to decrease in the last two days. Nonetheless, several factors still need monitoring, such as the U.S.-China tensions after President Trump insisted that TikTok sold its business in the U.S. by September 15. In this regard, we expect mutual hostility which will serve as noise before the U.S. presidential election. In Thailand, investors should keep an eye on the real sectors 2Q20 earnings results and the governments stability after a cabinet reshuffle in the middle of this month. In the near term, we maintain our call for investors to bet on stocks with a healthy 2Q20 profit outlook. If the market retreats to trade close to the 1,300 level (+/-), it still serves as an opportunity to accumulate fundamental stocks. However, if there are positive developments in phase 3 of a coronavirus vaccine, we recommend our investors instantly switch to global play.
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03
August
2020
Daily Focus : 3 August 2020,Selective and Earnings Plays//Accumulate at around 1,300 (+/-)
(views 483)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,320-1,335 points as the market continues to lack any fresh catalyst in the near term with pressing factors including the U.S.-China tensions which still risk escalating. According to the latest development, the U.S. prepares to ban Chinese applications other than TikTok. Also, the COVID-19 pandemic concern persists. It has made some countries resume a partial lockdown and puts pressure the economic recovery. Domestically, more of the real sectors 2Q20 earnings results are about to be out. Although there has been clarity over cabinet shake-up, the market needs to remain cautious over stability and undercurrent by those that miss the positions. In the near term, we maintain our call for investors to focus their bet on stocks with a healthy 2Q20 profit outlook. If the SET falls to the 1,300level (+/-) as it was last Friday, we view it as an opportunity to accumulate. However,if there are positive developments in phase 3 of a coronavirus vaccine, we recommend our investors instantly switch to global play.
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31
July
2020
Daily Focus : 31 July 2020,Selective and Earnings Plays//Accumulate at around 1,300 (+/-)
(views 537)


We expect the SET to retreat. In the near term, the index may fall to test its crucial support at 1,300 (+/-), pressured by Germanys weaker-than-expected 2Q20 GDP (-10.1% Q-Q, -11.7% Y-Y). On the other side of the Atlantic, although the U.S.s GDP came in slightly higher than expected, it contracted the most ever since. Specifically, it dropped 32.9% Q-Q. Also, the weekly jobless claims remained high at 1.43mn. Meanwhile, the COVID-19 pandemic remains a concern due to the high number of new cases of about 280,000. Besides, the infections in certain European countries, such as Spain and France started to accelerate. As a result, the concern over the pace of the economic recovery persists. In Thailand, keep a close eye on the real sectors 2Q20 earnings results, particularly in the next two weeks. If it comes in weaker than expected, the SET may retreat in the near term. Given that, we maintain our call for investors to bet on stocks with a healthy 2Q20 profit outlook. If the index decreases to the 1,300 (+/-) level, we continue to view it as an opportunity to accumulate. However,once there is a positive development in phase 3 of a vaccine, we recommend that investors instantly switch to global play.
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30
July
2020
Daily Focus : 30 July 2020,Selective and Earnings Plays//Accumulate at around 1,300 (+/-)
(views 484)
We expect the SET to move sideways to sideways up within 1,330-1,350 points after the Fed maintained its policy rates at 0-0.25%, as expected. Also, the central bank pledged to utilize its various tools to further support the economy to cope with the COVID-19 pandemic and to support economic stimulus through more fiscal policies. At the moment, they are discussing them in the Senate. However, we maintain our view that the SETs strength is limited. In particular, several factors need monitoring. In particular, the number of new COVID-19 cases surged to a new high yesterday at about 280,000. In this regard, investors must exercise caution after new cases in some European countries begin to increase. In Thailand, keep a close eye on the real sectors 2Q20 earnings season. Today, PTTEP and GLOBAL are due to deliver their results. Cabinet reshuffle and the new BoT governer have become clear,nonetheless. In the near term, we maintain our call for investors to bet on stocks with a healthy 2Q20 profit outlook, such as food and beverages, property, and power
generation. If the SET retreats to trade close to the 1,300 level, we view it as an opportunity to accumulate. However, if there are positive developments in phase 3 of a
coronavirus vaccine, we recommend our investors instantly switch to global play.
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29
July
2020
Daily Focus : 29 July 2020,Earnings Play//Accumulate on Dip
(views 525)
We expect the SET to move sideways to sideways down within 1,330-1,350 points. In general, the investment sentiment continues to lack a fresh catalyst as investors continue to monitor the U.S.-China tensions which look set to intensify after their closure of consulate. Meanwhile, the U.S.s new round of stimulus does not progress after senators from both parties are unable to strike a deal. Tonight, keep a close eye on the Fed meeting (where the market expects it to maintain policy rates at 0-0.25%). Nonetheless, the U.S. central bank has recently extended its emergency lending program by another three months to the end of this year to help liquidity. In Thailand, the country has entered the earnings season for the real sector, starting with SCC and PTTEP. The cabinet shake-up begins to take shape after Mr. Predee Daochai and Mr. Supattanapong Punmeechaow have stepped down from their director positions in listed companies. Net-net, we continue to recommend our investors bet on stocks with a healthy 2Q20 profit outlook in the near term. For example, they include food and beverages, property, and power generation, and if the SET decreases to trade close to the 1,300 level, we continue to view it as an opportunity to accumulate.
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24
July
2020
Daily Focus : 24 July 2020,Earnings Play//Accumulate on Dip
(views 557)
We expect the SET to move sideways down to test 1,345-1,350 points due to negative sentiment. To elaborate, the market sees pressure from U.S. weekly jobless claims. It increased to 1.42mn, which is higher than the market estimate and significantly higher than its normal rate. Meanwhile, there is no sign that the number of new COVID-19 infections will decrease. On the international front, the U.S.- China hostility continues to trigger concerns, and it may escalate, particularly before the presidential election in early November 2020. Domestically, the market continues to lack catalysts. In this regard, investors need to keep an eye on the cabinet reshuffle,
particularly on the head of the economic team. Moreover, the earnings results of the
real sector may come in weaker than expected after banks flashed negative signals.
Given the many uncertainties, we maintain our call for investors to bet on stocks with a
healthy 2Q20 profit outlook in the near term. They include food and beverages,
property, and power generation. If the SET decreases to trade close to the 1,300 level,
we view it as an opportunity to accumulate.
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23
July
2020
Daily Focus : 23 July 2020,Earnings Play//Accumulate on Dip
(views 600)
We expect the SET to turn to move sideways within 1,350-1,365 points after yesterdays sharp fall. The markets movement remains volatile. Although the market sees support from vaccine development news and economic stimulus around the world, there is pressure from the U.S.-China tensions which may escalate,particularly before the U.S. presidential election in early November 2020. Domestically,investors need to keep an eye on the real sectors earnings results which could come in weaker than expected after banks have flashed negative signals. On the prospect that Thailand will be on the U.S. watch list for currency intervention, the BoT has said at an analyst meeting that the central bank has clarified and is keeping in touch with the regulator on the matter. Hence, it should not be an issue. Under several uncertainties,we maintain our call for investors to bet on stocks with a strong 2Q20 profit outlook,such as food and beverages, property, and power generation. If the index decreases to trade close to the 1,300 level, we still view it as an opportunity to accumulate.
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22
July
2020
Daily Focus : 22 July 2020,Earnings Play//Accumulate on Dip
(views 516)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,370-1,385 points after its strong rally yesterday. In particular, the index has reflected most of the catalysts, including the positive development of a COVID-19 vaccine and the deal to set up a recovery fund of the EU. However, the market focus remains the earnings results of the real sector. In this regard, there could be pressure after most banks reported below-estimate 2Q20 profit. On cabinet reshuffle, the Prime Minister disclosed that the list was completed. If all is well, we expect it to help support the investment sentiment. In the near term, we continue to recommend that our investors bet on stocks with a strong 2Q20 profit outlook, such as food and beverages, property, and power generation. If the index decreases to trade close to the 1,300 level, we still view it as an opportunity to accumulate.
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21
July
2020
Daily Focus : 21 July 2020,Earnings Play//Accumulate on Dip
(views 518)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,350-1,365 points. In the near term, the market sees support from AstraZenecas positive vaccine test results in phase 1-2. However, we expect the market to see pressure from banks earnings results after most of them came in lower than expected yesterday due to a higher Expected Credit Loss. In particular, the below-estimate earnings could trigger concerns in the real sector which will follow and disclose their results shortly. Besides, investors need to keep a close eye on the cabinet reshuffle, particularly on the economic team and the Energy Minister position. Given that, we continue to recommend our investors to bet on stocks with a strong 2Q20 earnings outlook in the near term. They include food and beverages, property, and power generation. If the SET retreats to the 1,300 level (+/-), we continue to view it as an opportunity to accumulate.
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20
July
2020
Daily Focus : 20 July 2020,Earnings Play//Accumulate on Dip
(views 590)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,350-1,370 points as the market continues to monitor a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic along with vaccine development news. Also, investors are keeping a close watch on fiscal stimulus, particularly of the EU which is yet to reach a conclusion. However, the spotlight is now on Thailands 2Q20 earnings season
where all banks will disclose their results this week. Also, cabinet reshuffle will have an impact on investor confidence. In this regard, investors need to keep an eye on the matter, particularly on the Energy Minister position if all will go smoothly or not. In the near term, we maintain our call for investors to be selective. Pick ones with a strong 2Q20 profit outlook. If the market decreases to 1,300 points (+/-), it will serve as an opportunity to accumulate fundamental stocks.
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17
July
2020
Daily Focus : 17 July 2020,Earnings Play//Accumulate on Dip
(views 495)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,340-1,355 points. We view that the market will begin to see lower liquidity-driven catalysts after central banks around the world started to signal that they would not provide additional monetary policy, and are now in a wait & see mode, waiting for economic recovery. In this spirit, ECB maintained its monetary policy yesterday.Looking ahead, we believe the market will turn to focus more on the economy and COVID-19 vaccine development which the market expects to complete and begin a large-scale production late this year. In Thailand, investors still need to keep a close watch on the cabinet reshuffle. Besides, banks will begin to report their results today. In the near term, we recommend that investors bet on stocks with a healthy 2Q20 earnings outlook. If the market retreats to the 1,300 level (+/-), it still serves as an opportunity to accumulate fundamental stocks.
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16
July
2020
Daily Focus : 16 July 2020,Speculate Global Play//Accumulate on Dip
(views 537)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,345-1,365 points. Although the index continues to benefit from both Modernas and AstraZenecas COVID-19 vaccine developments, we expect the market to pay more attention to domestic politics, i.e., a cabinet reshuffle, in the near term afterทthere were news reports that Mr. Somkid and his team will resign today. In this regard, investors need to keep an eye on the new economic team as well as the governments stability in the future. This morning, keep a close watch on Chinas 2Q20 GDP, which we expect to turn to grow after most of the countrys recent economic data came in stronger than expected. In the short run, we recommend that investors trade global play, in line with positive vaccine development. If the market retreats, it will serve as an opportunity to accumulate fundamental stocks.
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15
July
2020
Daily Focus : 15 July 2020,Speculate Global Play//Accumulate on Dip
(views 562)
We expect the SET to bounce back to test the 1,355-1,360 level due to positive investment sentiment after Modernas initial test results showed that all 45 subjects had a strong immune response. However, investors still need to keep a close watch on the COVID-19 situation in Thailand in the next 1-2 weeks if the country will find new cases from within the country or not. Also, there is a prospect of a cabinet reshuffle shortly. Finally, the 2Q20 earnings season will begin late this week. In the near term, we recommend investors trade global play, in line with the positive vaccine development. If the market retreats, it will serve as an opportunity to accumulate fundamental stocks.
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14
July
2020
Daily Focus : 14 July 2020,Earnings Play//Accumulate on Dip
(views 505)
We expect the SET to move sideways down within 1,330-1,350 points as negative sentiment increases. In particular, Thailand found domestic COVID-19 infections. They included a foreign soldier and a member of a diplomatic mission who broke their quarantine. Since there is a risk of a second wave as in foreign countries, investors need to keep track of the number of new cases in the next 1-2 weeks.Nonetheless, the market is supported by vaccine development news after Pfizer & BioNTech have gained fast track status from the U.S. FDA. Looking ahead, we expect the market to remain volatile due to the COVID-19 situation and the prospect of a cabinet reshuffle in the future. Besides, investors need to monitor the 2Q20 earnings season which will begin shortly. In the near term, we maintain our call for investors to bet on stocks with a healthy 2Q20 profit forecast. If the market retreats, it will still serve as an opportunity to accumulate fundamental stocks. In this regard, focus on domestic play. However, if there is a clear positive development on a COVID-19
vaccine, we recommend that our investors instantly switch to global play.
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13
July
2020
Daily Focus : 13July 2020,Earnings Play//Accumulate on Dip
(views 561)
We expect the SET to see a technical rebound. In the near term,the index will move within 1,345-1,365 points as market sentiment is more relaxed. In particular, investors start to pay less attention and look past the accelerating number of COVID-19 infections and turn to be optimistic about vaccine development after four companies are conducting phase three of their experiment in humans. Besides, Gilead disclosed that Remdesivir could reduce the mortality rate by 62% relative to standard care. However, investors need to keep a close eye on the 2Q20 earnings results this week, starting with banks. If they come in lower than expected, it could pressure the SET to correct itself once more. Moreover, domestic politics serves as another crucial risk, especially when it comes to a cabinet reshuffle. Given that, we recommend our investors trade stocks with a strong 2Q20 profit outlook in the near term. If the market retreats, it will serve as an opportunity to accumulate fundamental stocks, focusing on domestic play. However, once COVID-19 vaccine development progresses, we
recommend that investors instantly switch to global play.
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10
July
2020
Daily Focus : 10 July 2020,Trade Earnings Play//Accumulate on Dip
(views 548)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways within 1,350-1,375 points. In this regard, we expect the market to remain highly volatile. The main focus remains a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic after the number of new cases in Hong Kong and Japan spikes. Besides, we expect the concern to increase further if the number of infections in Europe turns to accelerate. In Thailand, we expect politics to have more weight, particularly after the prospect of a cabinet reshuffle. More importantly, the governments stability seems to decrease. If this lingers for long, it could pose a dissolution risk in the future. Given the two risks, we recommend our investors trade stocks with a solid 2Q20 earnings outlook in the near term. When and if the market retreats, it will serve as an opportunity to accumulate fundamental stocks. In this regard, focus on domestic play. When a COVID-19 vaccine is imminent, instantly switch to global play.
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09
July
2020
Daily Focus : 9 July 2020,Maintain Domestic Play//Accumulate on Dip
(views 512)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,355-1,375 points. In general, the market continues to lack any fresh catalyst to stimulate. Also, investors will continue to keep a close watch on a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic which will be more concerned if the number of infections in Europe turns to accelerate. Today, monitor crucial economic data, including Chinas June inflation (which the market expects to +2.5%) and Germanys trade balance for May to assess economic recovery in 2H20. In the middle of July-August, it will be the 2Q20 earnings season. In this regard, see if it will come in weaker than expected or not. We maintain our call for investors to focus on the domestic play at this time. However, if and when there is a clear positive development on a COVID-19 vaccine, we recommend investors instantly switch to the global play.
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08
July
2020
Daily Focus : 8 July 2020,Maintain Domestic Play//Accumulate on Dip
(views 529)
We expect the SET to move sideways down within 1,360-1,385 points, pressured by concerns over a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, which will persist if the number of new infections in Europe begins to accelerate. Also, there is a negative impact from a slower-than-expected economic recovery. According to the latest information, the EU has further cut its GDP forecast. Meanwhile, Germanys MPI in May recovered at a slower-than-expected pace. Besides, the 2Q20 earnings season is around the corner, and we expect it to be lackluster. Given that, we continue to recommend our investors focus on investment in the domestic play at this time. However, once there is a concrete positive development on a COVID-19 vaccine, we recommend that investors instantly switch to the global play.
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07
July
2020
Daily Focus : 7 July 2020,Speculate on Global Play //Accumulate Domestic Play
(views 568)
We expect the SET to move sideways up within 1,360-1,385 points as the market benefits from Asian equity markets which have been rallying strongly from yesterday until this morning. Also, the U.S. service ISM in June recovered sharply to 57.1 (from 45.4 in May) after the economy reopened. It offers hope on economic recovery. Meanwhile, investors look past the number of COVID-19 infections which has surged to nearly 200,000 new cases daily. In this regard, we continue to recommend our investors accumulate domestic plays that recover, in line with the economy. However, we do not recommend banks because their earnings performance will not be bright throughout the remaining three quarters of this year.
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03
July
2020
Daily Focus : 3 July 2020,Speculate on Global Play //Accumulate Domestic and Defensive Plays on Dip
(views 558)
We expect the SET to move sideways to sideways up within 1,365-1,385 points, supported by substantially higher-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls and the vaccine development a day earlier. In this regard, we expect the global play to continue to support the market. However, investors should continue to monitor a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic after the number of new infections continued to surge to a new high. It could make the economic recovery begin to slow after economies reopened two months ago. We continue to view market retreats to 1,330-1,350 points (+/-) as an opportunity to accumulate fundamental stocks and recommend our investors focus on domestic and defensive plays. In the near term, one may also bet on global and tourism plays, in line with positive news on vaccine development.
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02
July
2020
Daily Focus : 2 July 2020,Speculate Global Play on Vaccine News //Accumulate Domestic and Defensive Plays on Dip
(views 563)
We expect the SET to move sideways up within 1,340-1,360 points as the market benefits from positive results of Pfizers, BioNTechs, and Inovios coronavirus vaccine trial. Also, the economic data of several key economies, such as the U.S., China, and the eurozone showed recovery. Nonetheless, the Feds minutes revealed continued concern over a second wave of the pandemic, which could make it necessary to introduce more stimulus measures. In this regard, we continue to view that market retreats to 1,300 points (+/-), which is equal to a 2021 PER of 15.5x, serve as an opportunity to accumulate. When it happens, focus on domestic and defensive plays, including food and beverages, healthcare, power generation, ICT, and contractors. In the near term, investors may bet on the global play and tourism sector,in line with vaccine development.
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01
July
2020
Daily Focus : 1 July 2020,Maintain Domestic and Defensive Plays //Accumulate on Dip
(views 539)
We expect the SET to move within 1,330-1,350 points. In this regard, investors still need to closely monitor a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and the global economic recovery. This morning, eye at Chinas Caixin Manufacturing PMI in June. Although the Fed chair and U.S. treasury secretary offered a slightly different view on economic recovery before Congress, both of them pledged to work together to support the economy to survive this crisis. In Thailand, phase five of restriction easing starts today. In this phase of relaxation, the highlight is on the starting to let foreign travelers in, if necessary. Given that, we maintain our view that market retreats to 1,300 points (+/-) serve as an opportunity to accumulate fundamental stocks. At the said level, it is equal to 2021 PER of about 15.5x. Focus on domestic and defensive plays, such as food and beverages, healthcare, power
generation, ICT, and contractors.
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30
June
2020
Daily Focus : 30 June 2020,Maintain Domestic and Defensive Plays //Accumulate on Dip
(views 544)
We expect the SET to move within 1,310-1,345 points as investors have their eyes on a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and economic recovery from the data disclosed by each country. In this regard, China is due to release its PMI for June this morning. Tonight, the Fed chair and the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury will testify before the U.S. House of Representatives. From this testimony, we expect to see additional signals on their economic view and stimuli. In Thailand, CCSA will start phase 5 of the relaxation. To elaborate, Thailand will begin to allow foreigners to travel into the country. However, there is yet a conclusion on bubble tourism. At the cabinet meeting today, keep an eye on a key tourism stimulus, which we expect to delay to July 15. We continue to view market retreats as an opportunity to accumulate fundamental stocks at 1,300 and 1,260 points, respectively, which are equal to 2021 PER of roughly 15-15.5x. In this regard, focus on domestic and defensive plays, such as food and beverages, healthcare, power generation, ICT, and contractors.
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29
June
2020
Daily Focus : 29 June 2020,Focus on Domestic and Defensive Plays //Accumulate on Dip
(views 518)
We expect the SET to decrease to test its support at 1,300-1,310 points once again due to negative investment sentiment after U.S. equity markets tumbled. Also, investors were concerned over a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, the accelerating number of infections will result in a slowerthan- expected economic recovery. In Thailand, the situation is still better with zero infection for over one month. Today, investors should keep an eye on CCSA meetings on phase 5 of the relaxation. In particular, the meeting will consider permitting foreign travelers into the country for both businesses and medical help. However, there is yet a conclusion on travel tourism. In this regard, we continue to view that a market retreat will serve as an opportunity to accumulate fundamental stocks at 1,300 and 1,260 points, respectively. They are equal to 2021 PER of about 15-15.5x, respectively. Focus on domestic and defensive plays, including food and beverages, healthcare, power generation, ICT, and contractors.
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26
June
2020
Daily Focus : 26 June 2020,Focus on Domestic and Defensive Plays //Accumulate on Dip
(views 576)
We expect the SET to move within 1,310-1,340 points. In this regard, we expect volatility to remain high. Although the index may recover in the near term, in line with its regional peers, we expect the recovery to be modest. Looking ahead, investors still need to keep an eye on a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic after the number of infections continued to surge. Besides, the Fed had asked commercial banks to suspend stock repurchase and decrease their dividend payment in the third quarter after stress test results showed COVID-19 risks that could affect CAR in certain scenarios. In Thailand, investors should monitor CCSA meetings today. In particular, keep an eye on a decision to allow foreigners to enter the country under phase 5 of the restriction easing. On travel bubbles, we expect the matter to take time for more discussion. We maintain our view that market retreats serve as an opportunity to accumulate fundamental stocks at 1,300 and 1,260 points, respectively. They are equal to 2021 PER of about 15-15.5x. In this regard, we continue to focus on domestic
and defensive plays, including food and beverage, healthcare, power generation, ICT,and contractors.
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25
June
2020
Daily Focus : 25 June 2020,Focus on Domestic and Defensive Plays //Accumulate on Dip
(views 548)
We expect the SET to move down within 1,320-1,340 points due to negative investment sentiment after the number of coronavirus infections surged, particularly in the U.S., while several countries started to flash signs of a second wave.Besides, the IMF has cut its global economic forecast. Since more funds flowed out of risk assets to safe-haven, the SET retreated due to its stretched valuation after the V-shaped recovery to factor in optimism over the reopening of the economies earlier. In this regard, we view two entry points where investors could accumulate fundamental stocks at 1,300 and 1,260 points, respectively. They are equal to 2021 PER of about 15- 15.5x and come after the first entry point at 1,330 points (+/-). However, we continue to focus on domestic and defensive plays, including food and beverages, healthcare, power generation, and ICT.
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24
June
2020
Daily Focus : 24 June 2020,Focus Core Port on Domestic Play //Accumulate on Dip
(views 482)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways within 1,340-1,380 points at this time after the index has reflected most of the reopening of the economy in the past 2-3 months. Currently, the market is monitoring the severity of the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic along with the monetary and fiscal stimuli around the world. In Thailand, several crucial factors need monitoring today. They include an MPC meeting (where we expect the policy rate to be on hold at 0.50%) and the IMFs updated economic forecast. Nonetheless, Thailand has not seen any new COVID-19 infections within the country for quite a while, which is positive. In this regard, we still view the SETs retreat to 1,330-1,350 points (+/-), which is equal to 2021 PER of about 15.7x and an earning yield gap of 5%, as an opportunity to accumulate fundamental stocks. Besides, we continue to focus on domestic plays, such
as food and beverage, healthcare, power generation, and ICT.
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23
June
2020
Daily Focus : 23 June 2020,Focus Core Port on Domestic Play //Accumulate on Dip
(views 530)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,345-1,365 points. In the near term, there may be a technical rebound after yesterdays sharp fall. In this regard, we expect energy to be the main sector to support the market after crude prices hovered above US$40 a barrel. Nonetheless, the market still lacks any fresh catalyst in general. It is still in its sideways movement to build up its base while keeping an eye on a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic as well as monetary and fiscal stimuli around the world. In Thailand, MPC will meet
tomorrow. At the meeting, we expect policymakers to maintain their benchmark rate at 0.50%. Meanwhile, Thailand has seen zero new COVID-19 cases for 28 straight days, which is a positive signal. Given that, we view the SETs retreat to 1,330-1,350 points (+/-), which is equal to 2021 PER of about 15.7x and an earning yield gap of 5%, as an opportunity to accumulate fundamental stocks. In this regard, focus on domestic plays, such as food and beverage, healthcare, power generation, and ICT.
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22
June
2020
Daily Focus : 22 June 2020,Focus Core Port on Domestic Play //Accumulate on Dip
(views 555)
We expect the SET to move sideways to sideways down within 1,360-1,375 points. In this regard, we expect banks to put pressure on the market after BoT asked them to suspend interim dividends and stock repurchase. This could trigger concerns about the central banks view on the weaker-than-expected economic recovery. However, we expect energy to continue to support the market after crude prices continued to rally due to OPEC+ output cut. In this regard, we expect the market to continue to be volatile as the index builds up its base. Also, the market will keep an eye on a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic as well as stimulus packages both monetary and fiscal around the world. In Thailand, MPC will meet this Wednesday.Given that, we maintain our view that the SETs retreat to 1,330-1,350 points (+/-),which is equal to 2021 PER of 15.7x and an earning yield gap of 5%, serves as an opportunity to accumulate fundamental stocks. In this regard, focus on domestic plays, such as food and beverage, healthcare, power generation, and ICT.
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19
June
2020
Daily Focus : 19 June 2020,Focus Core Port on Domestic Play //Accumulate on Dip
(views 531)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways to build up its base within 1,360-1,385 points. The market continues to lack any fresh catalyst after it has been increasing in the past 2-3 months to factor in optimism over the reopening of the economy and economic recovery. According to the latest data, the U.S. weekly jobless claims were equal to 1.5mn. It was higher than the market consensus and only slightly down from a week ago. Looking ahead, two crucial factors need monitoring. They include a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic as well as monetary and fiscal stimulus packages around the world. In the latest development, BoE has raised its QE budget by 100bn pounds. In Thailand, MPC will meet next week. Given that, we expect the market to be volatile at this time. If the SET decreases to trade at 1,330-1,350 points, which is equal to 2021 PER of about 15.7x and an earning yield gap of about 5%, it will serve as an opportunity to accumulate fundamental stocks. In this regard, focus on domestic play, such as food and beverage, healthcare, power generation, and ICT.
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18
June
2020
Daily Focus : 18 June 2020,Focus Core Port on Domestic Play //Accumulate on Dip
(views 458)
We expect the SET to move sideways down within 1,360-1,380 points as the market lacks fresh catalysts in the near term. Besides, the market has rallied in the last 2-3 months to factor in optimism over an economic recovery brought on by the reopening of economies as well as the fiscal and monetary policies around the world. Nonetheless, there start to be signals of a second wave of the COVID-19 in several countries. This poses as a crucial risk that is yet to reflect in the index. Given that, we expect the market to be volatile at this time. If the SET retreats to trade within 1,330-1,350 points, which is equal to 2021 PER of 15.7x and an earning yield gap of about 5%, we view it as an opportunity to accumulate fundamental stocks. In this regard, focus on domestic play, such as food and beverage, healthcare, powergeneration, and ICT.
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17
June
2020
Daily Focus : 17 June 2020,Focus Main Port on Domestic Play //Accumulate on Dip
(views 481)
We expect the SET to move sideways within a wide range of 1,355-1,380 to build up a new base as the market remains optimistic about the quick economic recovery. To elaborate, U.S. retail sales in May recovered stronger than expected. It jumped by 17.7% M-M. Meanwhile, President Trump prepared to invest US$1tn in infrastructure projects. In this regard, the Feds Chair said that the U.S. economy had seen its trough in April. However, recovery back to the normal level takes time, while risks persist. Also, the IMF prepared to further slash its global economic forecast (from -3% in March). Given that, we expect market volatility to be high at this time. Besides, investors still need to monitor progress in the development of a vaccine and a drug amid the prospect of a second wave. According to the latest recovery trial,Dexamethasone proved to help reduce the mortality rate by a third. In this regard, we view a retreat to 1,330-1,350 points, which is equal to 2021 PER of 15.7x and an earnings yield gap of about 5% as an opportunity to accumulate fundamental stocks.
Moreover, we continue to like domestic play, such as power generation, ICT, as well as food and beverages.
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16
June
2020
Daily Focus : 16 June 2020,Speculate on Global Play//Accumulate on Dip
(views 579)
We expect the SET to bounce back to test the 1,360 level due to easing investment sentiment after the Fed has expanded its Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility to cover corporate bonds (from only ETF previously). As a result, funds flowed into risk assets once again. However, we believe that the market will remain volatile at this time. Also, investors need to continue to monitor a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, which remains a crucial risk. We maintain our view that the SET will trade down to the 1330 level, which is equal to 2021 PER of 15.7x and an earning yield gap of about 5%. At the said level, it will serve as an opportunity to accumulate fundamental stocks. In this regard, we continue to like domestic plays, such as power generation, ICT, as well as food and beverages. However, investors may bet on global play in the near term, in line with the markets sentiment.
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15
June
2020
Daily Focus : 15 June 2020,Stay in Defensive and Domestic Plays //Accumulate on Dip
(views 550)
We expect the SET to trade down to test its support of 1,360-1,370 points once again after China found new COVID-19 cases in Beijing. Also, the number of infections increased in Tokyo. They intensify fears of a second wave. As a result, the prospect that funds will flee risk assets to safe-haven and cash in the near term increases. Nonetheless, Thailand has been reporting zero new cases for 20 straight days. Besides, the country imposes strict immigration controls. Hence, the concern is lower. As we continue to keep a close eye on this matter, we expect the SET to move sideways down due to its stretched valuations. In particular, the Thai benchmark indexท is trading at 2021 PER of about 16.5x. If the index does trade lower, we recommend our investors buy fundamental stocks back at support lines after the profit-taking at 1,450 points (+/-). In the near term, trade domestic and defensive plays, such as power generation, ICT, and food.
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12
June
2020
Daily Focus : 12 June 2020,Stay in Defensive and Domestic Play //Accumulate on Dip
(views 499)
We expect the SET to retreat to test the 1,360 level (+/-) due to the negative sentiment. In this regard, more funds have fled from risk assets to safehaven and cash. This is seen from the substantial increase in the US Dollar Index. The market was pessimistic about the Feds meetings two days ago, particularly their view on the economy in the next two years. The main drag will be the concern over a second wave which begins to signal in several U.S. states. The market is in retreat, in line with our view after the SET has sharply rallied by about 40% to reflect the optimism about the reopening of the economy. At the current level, the indexs valuations are stretched. Specifically, it is trading at 2021 PER of about 16.6x. Given that, we recommend investors gradually buy back fundamental stocks at the indexs supports after the profit-taking at 1,450 points (+/-). In the short term, park cash in defensive
sectors, including power generation, ICT, and food.
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11
June
2020
Daily Focus : 11 June 2020,Focus on Laggard Play//Gradually Take Profit at 1,450 (+/-)
(views 532)
We expect the SET to move sideways down to test the 1,400-1,410 level after the Fed ended its meeting on a more-dovish-than-expected note. To elaborate, the U.S. central bank would continue to stimulate its economy until the labor market returns to normal. This means that the economy may slow for a long period. The Dot Plot points to the Feds maintaining its policy rates at 0-0.25% until the end of 2022. Also, the U.S. GDP has to wait until 2022 to return to be above the 2019 level. As a result, the U.S. bond yields dropped, putting pressure on the equity market.Also, more people begin to talk about a second wave. In the near term, the SET is likely to retreat after its rallied by about 40% in the past 2-3 months to reflect the opening of the economy. At the current level, the SETs valuations are rather stretched. It trades at 2021 PER of about 17x. Given that, we recommend our investors speculate only on laggard stocks. Besides, gradually take profit if the SET rallies to hit the 1,450 level.
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10
June
2020
Daily Focus : 10 June 2020,Speculate in Laggard Play//Gradually Take Profit at 1,450 (+/-)
(views 531)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,400-1,420 points after yesterdays sharp fall. Tonight, a key factor needs monitoring. It is a Fed meeting at which we expect policymakers to maintain their monetary policy. However, investors still need to keep an eye on their view on the economy and the Dot Plot. In the near term, the SET is likely to retreat due to local institutions selling after the index has rallied by about 40% in the past 2-3 months to factor in the reopening of the economy. Following the rallies, the indexs valuation is rather stretched. At the current level, the SET trades at 2021 PER of about 17x. Hence, we recommend that investors bet in laggard stocks and gradually take profit once the index increases to touch 1,450 points.
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09
June
2020
Daily Focus : 9 June 2020,Go with the Flow
(views 537)
The SET increased to test 1,455 points at the open due to positive investment sentiment before it turned to decrease and closed with a lower gain of 2.96 points. The top gainer was energy after crude prices surged. However, both local institutions and foreign investors turned to register a net sell position of Bt2.5bn and Bt788mn in the equity market, respectively. Also, foreign investors recorded a net short position of about 7,200 contracts on the Index Futures.
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08
June
2020
Daily Focus : 8 June 2020,Go with the Flow
(views 797)
We expect the SET to rally to test 1,450 points. The gain will continue to be led by energy and petrochemical after OPEC+ agreed to extend their daily output cut of 9.7mn barrels by one more month to end in July 2020. As a result,WTI was sharply up to touch US$40 a barrel. Meanwhile, U.S. employment data turned to increase, which was drastically better than expected. This week, keep an eye on FED meetings on the U.S. economic outlook. In this regard, we expect policymakers to maintain their monetary policies and reiterate their readiness to employ every possible tool and measure to survive the COVID-19 outbreak crisis. Fundamentally, we expect the SETs upper band at 1,450 points (+/-), which is equal to 2021 PER of roughly 17x.However, since the capital inflows could make the index rally higher than its short-term fundamentals, we recommend investors bet on big-cap stocks, in line with the markets momentum. After that, wait to lock in profit when foreign inflows turn to outflows.
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05
June
2020
Daily Focus : 5 June 2020,Go with the Flow
(views 575)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,400-1,420 points after it increased sharply in the past two days to reflect the optimism over the reopening of economies. Yesterday, although the ECB raised its asset purchases by 600bn euros, which is higher than expected, the central bank made a surprise cut in its economic forecast. Nonetheless, we believe Asian equity markets will continue to see support from international fund inflows. In this round, we expect the indexs upper band at 1,450 points. It is equal to 2021 PER of 17x, which is rather demanding. Also, the SET may see sell-on-fact at the said level. In the near term, we recommend investors bet on large-cap stocks, in line with the markets momentum. Focus on the laggard play, for instance, ICT and healthcare.
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04
June
2020
Daily Focus : 4 June 2020,Go with the Flow
(views 622)
We expect the SET to rise to test the 1,390-1,400 level, led by large-cap stocks. The market continues to see support from international funds thatทcontinue to stream into the region. Also, it remains optimistic about the reopening of the economy and expects the trough from COVID-19 to be over. Today, investors should monitor a factor. It is an ECB meeting at which we expect policymakers to raise their asset purchase by 500bn euros. As a result, the global financial markets liquidity remains high. In this round, we expect the SET to move within 1,400-1,450 points. It is equal to 2021 PER of 16.5-17x, which is rather demanding. Besides, the market may see sell-on-fact at the said level after it has factored in most of the catalysts. In the near term, we recommend investors trade, in line with international funds that flowed into the country. Continue to focus on the laggard play, for instance, banks, ICT,
healthcare, property, and contractors.
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02
June
2020
Daily Focus : 2 June 2020,Laggard and Selective Plays
(views 550)
We expect the SET to move sideways to sideways up within 1,345-1,360 points as the market continues to respond positively to the reopening of the economy. Nonetheless, the U.S.-China tensions remain an issue that investors have to exercise caution. In the latest development, China is halting key agricultural imports such as soybean from the U.S. Since this could have an impact on phase one of their trade agreement, we expect market volatility to increase at this time. In this round, we expect the SETs upper band at 1,400 points. It is equal to 2021 PER of 16.5x, which is rather demanding. We view that the SET has responded to most of the catalysts from restriction easing. Since the index may see sell-on-fact at the said level after the situation turns to be nearly normal and close to the pre-COVID-19 period, we recommend our investors sell to lock in a profit if the index rallies to touch the said
level. In the near term, be selective and focus on the laggard play, for example, healthcare, ICT, and banks.
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01
June
2020
Daily Focus : 1 June 2020,Laggard and Selective Play
(views 519)
We expect the SET to move sideways to sideways up within 1,335-1,350 points. Energy will turn to lead the market in the near term after crude prices surged by over 5% last Friday, while the market continues to give weight to the reopening of the economy. However, investors still need to remain cautious over the U.S.-China tensions after President Trump said he would end Hong Kongs privileges to retaliate the passing of Hong Kongs new national security law. Moreover, the Thai benchmark index has sharply rallied by over 30% in the past two and a half months to factor in most of the catalysts from the easing of restrictions. As a result, there could be sell-on-fact in the near term after the situation turns to be nearly normal as it was before the COVID-19 outbreak. In this round, we expect the SET to move within 1,360- 1,400. It is equal to 2021 PER of 16.5x, which is not cheap. Hence, we recommend our investors gradually sell to lock in a profit if the index increases to the said level. In the short run, be selective when placing bets. Focus on the laggard play, for example, healthcare and ICT.
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29
May
2020
Daily Focus : 29 May 2020,Focus on Laggard and Defensive Plays
(views 537)
We expect the SET to move sideways down within 1,320-1,345 points due to the negative investment sentiment as the U.S.-China tensions begin to have more weight. Yesterday, Chinas National Peoples Congress passed Hong Kongs national security law which the U.S. attacked as a blow to the islands autonomy. In this regard, President Trump will announce a new policy to deal with China to the media tonight. Besides, the SET has increased to price in the reopening of the economy.Currently, the indexs valuation is rather demanding. Specifically, it trades on a PER of 19x in 2020 and 15.7x in 2021. In this round, we expect the upper band of the index at 1,360-1,400 points which is equal to a PER of 16.5x in 2021. Since this means there is not much upside, we recommend our investors focus on laggard and defensive plays in the near term. They include healthcare, ICT, agro-food, and banks. In the medium and long run, wait for the market to retreat before accumulation.
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28
May
2020
Daily Focus : 28 May 2020,Still Focus on Laggard Play
(views 565)
We expect the SET to move sideways up within 1,335-1,360 points due to the positive investment sentiment. In particular, the market continues to give weight to the reopening of economies and continued restriction easing around the world. Nonetheless, investors need to remain cautious about a factor that the market has yet to incorporate. It is the increased U.S.-China tensions after Washington said that Hong Kong was no longer autonomous from China. It jeopardizes the islands trade preference with the U.S. In the latest development, the U.S. House of Representatives has submitted draft legislation to impose sanctions on China over the Uighur issue. Given that, we expect the upper band for this round at 1,400 points, which is equal to 2021 PER of 16.5x. Since it implies a limited upside, we continue to focus on laggard sectors in the near term. They include healthcare, ICT, banks, property, and contractors. In the medium to long run, continue to wait for the market to retreat before accumulation.
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27
May
2020
Daily Focus : 27 May 2020,Focus on Laggard Play//Wait to Accumulate on Dip
(views 553)
We expect the SET to move sideways to sideways down within 1,320-1,345 points in the near term after its strong rallies in the past two days. The Thai benchmark index increased to factor in catalysts after the reopening of economies and easing of restrictions around the world. More importantly, the prospect of a vaccine progressed. However, pressure persists. It
will limit the indexs upside. In particular, there are tensions between the U.S. and China. According to the latest development, President Trump will announce his stance and could impose sanctions on China over Hong Kongs new national security law. Moreover, the SETs PER of over 19x in 2020 and 15.7x in 2021 are rather demanding. Given that, we recommend our investors focus on the laggard play, e.g., healthcare, ICT, property, contractor, and bank in the near term. In the long run, wait for the market to retreat before accumulation.
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26
May
2020
Daily Focus : 26 May 2020,Laggard Play//Wait to Accumulate on Dip
(views 520)
We expect the SET to move sideways up within 1,310-1,333 points as the market continues to give weight to the reopening of economies after countries around the world continue to ease their lockdown. Also, there is support from the news that Novavax has started vaccine trials on humans. Nonetheless,investors still need to closely monitor the U.S.-China tensions if they will escalate. In this regard, keep an eye on Chinas stance on Hong Kongs new national security law at the National Peoples Congress. On the local front, we still view that the SETs current valuation is demanding. To elaborate, the index currently trades on a PER of over 19x in 2020 and 15.5x in 2021. Given that, continue to focus on laggard sectors, for example, healthcare, ICT, property, and contractor in the short term. In the medium to long run, wait for the market to retreat before accumulation.
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25
May
2020
Daily Focus : 25 May 2020,Short-Term Trading //Wait to Accumulate on Dip
(views 543)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,290-1,315 points. In the near term, there could be a technical rebound. Although the SET tumbled last Friday, it still traded above its crucial resistance of 1,300 points. However, we expect the markets upside to remain limited. In particular, the Thai main index has factored in most of the optimism over the reopening of economies. Meanwhile, the pressure will come from the increased trade and political tensions between the U.S. and China. In the latest developments, Washington has threatened to impose sanctions after Beijing prepares to introduce a new national security law in Hong Kong. On the local front, the SETs current valuation is demanding. The index currently trades on a PER of over 19x in 2020 and 15.5 in 2021. Given that, we recommend our investors trade in the near term, in line with the indexs movement. Focus on laggard plays, e.g. healthcare,ICT, property, and contractors. In the medium to long run, wait for the market to retreat before accumulation.
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22
May
2020
Daily Focus : 22 May 2020,Momentum Trading and Laggard Play
(views 503)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,310-1,330 points. Although the market continues to be optimistic about the reopening of economies, it will see near term pressure from the Senates passing of Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act, which could make Chinese companies get delisted from U.S. equity markets. It dampens the U.S.-China relations which were already tense lately. In the U.S., the jobless claims remained high at 2.44mn in the past week. In Thailand, keep an eye on April exports that are due out today. In the near term, we maintain our strategy to trade, in line with the indexs momentum. Focus on the laggard play, for example, healthcare, ICT,property, and contractor. In the medium to long run, we continue to view that
the current valuation is too demanding. Specifically, the SET current trades on a high PER of 19x in 2020 and 15.7 in 2021. Hence, we recommend investors wait for the market to retreat before accumulation.
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21
May
2020
Daily Focus : 21 May 2020,Momentum Trading and Laggard Play
(views 492)
We expect the SET to move sideways up within 1,310-1,340 points. In particular, the index sees positive momentum after it has crossed its crucial resistance of 1,300 points. Also, investment sentiment is upbeat as the market continues to give weight and remain optimistic about the reopening of key economies around the world. In this regard, we expect global plays, including energy and power petrochemical to support the market since crude prices are on their upward path. In the short run, we recommend investors trade, in line with the indexs positive momentum. Focus on laggard plays, for example, healthcare, ICT, and contractors. In the mid to long term, we view that the SET currently trades on a demanding valuation at a PER of over 19x in 2020 and 15.7x in 2021. Hence, we recommend investors wait for the index to retreat before a new round of accumulation.
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20
May
2020
Daily Focus : 20 May 2020,Momentum Trading//Wait to Accumulate on Dip
(views 551)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,300-1,320 points after yesterdays strong rally. In the near term, the market sees negative sentimentืafter there are doubts about Modernas COVID-19 vaccine trials. Besides, we view that the market has priced in most of the optimism and too quickly since there are several more phases to go and they take time. Today, one crucial factor needs monitoring. It is the MPC meeting. In this regard, the market expects policymakers to cut its policy rate by 0.25% (while we expect the rate to stay). In the short run, we recommend our investors trade, in line with the indexs positive momentum. In the mid to long term, we maintain our call for investors to wait for the market to retreat to accumulate because the SETs valuation is rather demanding. At a 2020 PER of about 18x, the upside is limited, while the downside remains open.
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19
May
2020
Daily Focus : 19 May 2020,Trade on Vaccine News
(views 551)
We expect the SET to move in positive territory to test the 1,300 level once again, and the index may break the said resistance in this round. In this regard, we expect energy and petrochemical to continue to lead the market since crude prices continued to surge. Besides, the market will see crucial support from promising early results of Modernas COVID-19 vaccine as it continues
to be bullish about the reopening of economies around the world. In the short run, we recommend our investors trade, in line with the indexs positive outlook.In the mid to long term, we maintain our call for investors to wait for the market to retreat to accumulate because the SETs valuation is rather demanding at a 2020 PER of about 18x.
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18
May
2020
Daily Focus : 18 May 2020,Trade Energy and Petro//Wait to Accumulate and DCA on Dip
(views 521)
We expect the SET to move sideways to sideways up within 1,270-1,290 points. In this regard, we expect energy and petrochemical to continue to lead the market after crude prices continued to rally due to the reopening of economies and production cut. Today, keep an eye on Thailands 1Q20 GDP. On this, the market expects it to decrease by 4% Y-Y. On Wednesday, the MPC will meet, and investors
should see if there is further monetary policy easing or not. On the international front, we will continue to monitor the COVID-19 pandemic if there will be a second wave or
not after governments gradually ease their restrictions. Currently, the SET trades on a PER of 17.5-18x. Since we continue to view the SETs valuation as demanding, we
maintain our call for investors to wait for the index to retreat before a new round of accumulation. In the short run, we recommend our investors trade, in line with the
markets movement.
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15
May
2020
Daily Focus : 15 May 2020,Short-Term Trading//Wait to Accumulate and DCA on Dip
(views 536)
We expect the SET to see a technical rebound in the near term after its falls in the last two days. In this regard, we expect the index to move within 1,270-1,300 points. Also, we expect energy to support the market, in line with crude oil prices, which rallied after EIA expected crude stockpiles to decrease in 2H20.Generally, the market still lacks a fresh catalyst. To elaborate, we still need to monitor if there will be a second wave or not after the reopening of economies. Today, several crucial economic indicators are due out. In particular, they include the eurozones 1Q20 GDP, and the retail sales and industrial production of the U.S. and China. In Thailand,there will be a conclusion over phase 2 of restriction easing today and the countrys 1Q20 GDP on Monday. Since we continue to view the SETs PER of 17.5x as demanding,we recommend our investors wait for retreats before a new round of accumulation. In the near term, we recommend that investors trade, in line with the indexs movement.
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14
May
2020
Daily Focus : 14 May 2020,Short-Term Trading//Wait to Accumulate and DCA on Dip
(views 571)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways down.Specifically, we expect it to move within 1,280-1,300 points after the rally to test its crucial resistance of 1,300 points two days ago. Market sentiment remains negative after the Fed chair expressed his view that the U.S. economy continued to face significant downside risks due to the impact of COVID-19. Also, additional relief measures might be necessary. Meanwhile, investors start to have a more cautious view on the reopening of economies and the risk of a second wave. In terms of valuation, the equity indexes around the world, including the SET have surged by about 30% from their trough to reflect most of the optimism. Currently, the index trades on a PER of 17.8x, which is rather demanding. Since we view its upside as limited, we maintain our call for investors to wait for the market to retreat this month before a new round of accumulation. In the short run, we recommend our investors trade, in line with the markets movement.
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13
May
2020
Daily Focus : 13 May 2020,Short-Term Trading//Wait to Accumulate and DCA on Dip
(views 538)
We expect the SET to move sideways down within 1,285-1,305 points after its rallies in the last two days. Moreover, market sentiment starts to be more bearish. Although new catalysts provide support, investor caution over the reopening of economies increases after the market has reflected most of the said factory and turned to keep an eye on the pandemic if there will be a second wave or not. In Thailand, the government is considering phase 2 of restriction easing. On the international front, investors still need to monitor U.S.-China trade relations if there will be more attacks or not, and if they will comply with phase one of their agreement.This also serves as a risk. In terms of valuation, the SET currently trades on a PER of 17.8x, which is rather demanding. Since we still view the indexs upside as limited, we recommend our investors wait for the market to retreat this month before a new round of accumulation. In the short run, we recommend investors trade, in line with the indexs movement.
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11
May
2020
Daily Focus : 11 May 2020,Short-Term Trading//Wait to Accumulate and DCA on Dip
(views 547)
We expect the SET to move sideways to sideways up within 1,260-1,280 points amid relaxed market sentiment. Investors look past weak economic data and continue to give weight to the reopening of key economies around the world. Nonetheless, investors should continue to monitor the number of confirmed cases after this if there will be a second wave of the outbreak or not. On U.S.-China relations, although the tension eased after their delegates met and agreed to cooperate, in line with phase one of their trade agreement, we still need to keep an eye on President Trump. Specifically, we expect the U.S. president to use the aforementioned to attack China, particularly during his campaign before the election late this year. This week will be the last round of 1Q20 corporate earnings. We still see the indexs upside as limited since the market has factored in most of the optimism. Also, its PER remains high at 17.1x, which is among the top in this region. Hence, we retain our call for investors to wait for retreats this month for a new round of accumulation. In the short run, we recommend our investors trade, in line with the indexs movement.
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08
May
2020
Daily Focus : 8 May 2020,Wait to Accumulate and DCA on Dip
(views 602)
We expect the SET to bounce back in the near term to trade within 1,250-1,270 points, in line with the recovery in the equity markets in the U.S. and Asia. In this regard, investors will continue to be bullish about the reopening of key economies around the world while looking past the weak economic data. However, we still need to be on the lookout. In particular, will there be a second wave of the pandemic or not? Also, there is a renewed tension over the U.S. - China trade agreement. In Thailand, investors should monitor the real sectors 1Q20 earnings results as more of them are due out until next week. On this, we expect them to be lackluster.Besides, they will sharply deteriorate in 2Q20. In terms of valuation, although the SET has decreased by 3.4% WTD, its PER of 17x is still demanding, ranking among the top in this region. Since we still see the SETs upside as limited, our investors should wait for the market to retreat this month to accumulate. In the short run, we recommend that
investors only trade, in line with the indexs movement.
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07
May
2020
Daily Focus : 7 May 2020,Wait to Accumulate and DCA on Dip
(views 538)
We expect the SET to move sideways to sideways down to trade within 1,265-1,285 points as we maintain our view that the market will retreat in May after its strong rallies in April to factor in most of the optimism,particularly the reopening of the economy. In this regard, we need to monitor if and how quickly the economy will recover. Also, will there be a second wave of
the pandemic or not. On U.S. - China relations, the tension could intensify due to the spat over the origin of COVID-19 and escalate to trade. In Thailand, keep an eye on the real sectors 1Q20 earnings results, many of which are due out in the
next 1-2 weeks. In this regard, we expect them to be lackluster. Besides, they will tumble in 2Q20. Given that, we view the SETs upside as limited. Its valuation is demanding. In particular, the index currently trades on a PER of 17.3x, which is
among the top in this region. We maintain our call for investors to wait for the market to retreat this month for a new round of accumulation. In the near term,we recommend that investors only trade, in line with the indexs movement. Strategy: Slowly accumulate and do DCA when the market retreats.
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05
May
2020
Daily Focus : 5 May 2020,Wait to Accumulate and DCA on Dip
(views 615)
We expect the SET to move lower to trade within 1,280-1,300 points after equity markets around the world tumbled yesterday. The main pressure turned to the U.S. - China tension. In particular, Washington attacked China as the origin of the COVID-19 pandemic and blamed the country for concealing the severity of coronavirus and blocking access to medial safety gear. Also, the hostility escalated to trades. Specifically, President Trump threatened to retaliate using a new round of tariffs. However, we expect energy to somewhat help support after crude oil prices continued to increase. Besides, several countries ease their lockdown, while OPEC+ begins to cut their output in May.Net-net, we continue to view that the SETs upside is limited due to its demanding valuation. In particular, the index is trading at a high PER of 17.5x, which is among the top in this region. Hence, we maintain our call for investors to wait for the index to retreat this month to accumulate. In the short run, we recommend that investors trade, in tandem with the indexs movement.
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30
April
2020
Daily Focus : 30 April 2020,Trading and Test 1,300//Mid-to-Long term Wait to Accumulate and DCA on Dip
(views 640)
We expect the SET to continue to rally to test the 1,300 level due to positive market sentiment. To elaborate, the Fed chair reiterated the central banks historically aggressive policy stance until the U.S. economy is back on its feet. In this regard, the Fed pledged to hold rates near zero and keep them there. Meanwhile, Gilead announced that Remdesivirs joint experiment with the
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) produced positive results. Together they beat the U.S. 1Q20 GDPs contraction of 4.8%, which is worse than the market forecast. On the domestic front, investors should keep an eye on the number of infections after the state begins to relax the lockdown and 1Q20 corporate earnings in the next two weeks. Nonetheless, we maintain our view that the indexs upside is limited due to its demanding valuation. Specifically, it is trading on a PER of 17.3x, which is among the top in this region.
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29
April
2020
Daily Focus : 29 April 2020,Short-term Trading//Mid-to-Long term Wait to Accumulate and DCA on Dip
(views 627)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,260-1,285 points.Tonight, a few factors need monitoring. First, it is the U.S. 1Q20 GDP. In this regard, the market expects it to decrease by 4%. Second, it is the Fed chairs statement on the economic outlook and the monetary policy direction. Late this week, large-cap companies, e.g., SCC and PTTEP will report their 1Q20 results. However, we maintain our view that the indexs upside is limited. In the future, the crucial factor that will determine the market direction will be the COVID-19 situation and the number of infections after several countries, including Thailand, ease their lockdown. If they do not turn to escalate, the SET may continue to move up. If they do, the lockdown could turn to intensify, which will result in a reversal. Given that, we recommend our investors trade stocks benefiting from the easing of the lockdown in the near term. For
example, they comprise commerce and transport. In the medium to long run, wait for retreats. They will serve as an opportunity for a new round of accumulation.
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28
April
2020
Daily Focus : 28 April 2020,Trade//Wait to Accumulate and DCA on Dip
(views 522)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways to sideways up within 1,255-1,280 points as the market sentiment continues to ease. To elaborate, investors respond to and are optimistic about an exit from the lockdown in several countries around the world. Besides, there is support from liquidity, which floods the market due to the injection of key central banks. As a result, funds continue to flow into risk assets. It drives the U.S. bond yield up and makes the gold price decrease. However, investors should continue to keep an eye on the U.S. and eurozones 1Q20 GDP, which are due out this week. Also, ECB and FED will hold their meeting. In Thailand, keep an eye on the cabinet meeting, where we expect approval to extend the emergency decree. Moreover, we expect the cabinet to postpone public holidays and unwind the lockdown as per the CCSAs plan proposed yesterday. Looking ahead, investors should continue to monitor the number of infections after the economy reopens. If the outbreak continues to be contained, the index may continue to moveup. If not, we expect the lockdown to return and the index
to correct itself. In this regard, we recommend our investors to trade stocks that benefit from the easing of the lockdown in the near term. For example, they comprise commerce and transport. In the medium to long run, wait for the market to retreat, which will serve as an opportunity a new round of accumulations.
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27
April
2020
Daily Focus : 27 April 2020,Trade//Accumulate and DCA on Dip
(views 695)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,240-1,270 points.This week, several factors need monitoring. They include the 1Q20 GDP of the U.S. and the eurozone. Also, key central banks, i.e. BOJ, ECB, and FED, will hold their meeting. In particular, the BOJ may unlock its QE limit. In Thailand, investors need to monitorthe Center for COVID-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) and cabinet meetings whether they will ease the lockdown or not and how. Meanwhile, we view the indexs rallies of nearly 30% from the trough of this round have factored in optimism and catalysts over the COVID-19 outbreak and an easing of the lockdown. However, the markets fundamentals do not catch up. This week, more results from the real sector are due out. They comprise SCC, PTTEP, HMPRO, and DELTA, and they will better reflect the impacts of COVID-19 than banks. At the current level, the SET trades on 2020 PER of 16.8x, which is rather high. Given that, we recommend that investors only do trading in the short term. In the medium to long run, wait for the market to retreat. It will serve as an opportunity for a new round of accumulations.
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24
April
2020
Daily Focus : 24 April 2020,Trade//Accumulate and do DCA on Dip
(views 602)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,260-1,280 points. In this regard, we expect energy to continue to support the market thanks to the increased oil prices. However, we continue to view that the SETs upside is limited after the U.S. weekly jobless claims increased by 4.4mn, totaling 26.5mn in five weeks. Besides, WHO reported that Gileads clinical experiment of
Remdesivir in China did not help accelerate the recovery of COVID-19 patients. Looking ahead, investors should keep an eye on one factor. It is the number of infections after several countries have eased their lockdown. We view that thebSETs rallies of about 30% from its trough in the past month or so have reflected most of the optimism and catalysts, while the markets fundamentals and corporate earnings do not catch up. Next week, more of the real sector is due to release their 1Q20 results. They will better reflect the impact of COVID-19.
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23
April
2020
Daily Focus : 23 April 2020,Trade or Accumulate and do DCA on Dip
(views 550)
We expect the SET to move sideways up. In particular, the Thai main index may rise to test its previous high at 1,270-1,273 points. The rally will be supported by oil prices, which begin to steady. However, one factor needs monitoring tonight. It is the U.S. weekly jobless claims, which the market expects to increase by 4.3mn. Also, investors should keep an eye on the COVID-19 outbreak situation whether it will worsen or not after several countries have started to ease their lockdown. In Thailand, the SET had rallied by over 20% in the past month to factor in most of the optimism, while the fundamentals and corporate earnings did not catch up. In this regard, look at the real sectors 1Q20 earnings results, which will be out next week. At the current price, it implies 2020 PER of 16.7x, which is rather demanding. Given that,we see the indexs upside as limited. In the near term, we recommend that investors do trading. In the medium to long run, wait for the index to decrease. It will serve as an
opportunity for a new round of accumulation.
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22
April
2020
Daily Focus : 22 April 2020,Trade//Accumulate and DCA on Dip
(views 620)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways down within 1,220-1,260 points due to negative market sentiment after oil prices continued to tumble due to weak demand. Also, the SET has rallied by over 20% in the past month to reflect the optimism over the COVID-19 situation. To elaborate, the number of infections decelerated. Moreover, several countries have eased their lockdown.However, the markets fundamentals and corporate earnings do not catch up. According to the Bloomberg Consensus, the SETs EPS now stands at Bt75.7 (-11.3% Y-Y). At the current share price, the index trades on a PER of 16.5x, which is demanding. Besides,investors still need to monitor if the number of confirmed cases will turn to increase after the easing of the lockdown and a second wave will occur. In terms of earnings, although banks results are generally not bad, it was yet to reflect the actual impact of the new accounting standards. Also, they were yet to see the full impact of COVID-19.
In this regard, investors should keep an eye on the real sector, where the impact would be more pronounced. We still view that the SET will retreat in the near term, which will serve as an opportunity to accumulate or speculate.
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21
April
2020
Daily Focus : 21 April 2020,Trade or Accumulate and do DCA on Dip
(views 559)
We expect the SET to move sideways down within 1,240-1,270 points after the index rallied sharply in the past two days. To elaborate, we expect energy to weigh on the market. Since oil prices were volatile and tumbled, we expect them to see profit-taking. Also, their gain is among the top in the past month. By contrast, the main support will be the decelerating number of
confirmed COVID-19 cases. As a result, several countries have started to ease their lockdown and reopen their economy. However, investors still need to continue to monitor if the easing will make the number of infections turn to increase or result in a second wave or not. In general, banks 1Q20 earnings results are not as bad as the market has anticipated due to the impact of the new accounting standards. Besides, they were yet to see the full impact of COVID-19. However, since we believe the real sector that will announce their results afterward will see a more pronounced impact, we expect the SET to retreat in the
near term, which will serve as an opportunity to accumulate or speculate.
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20
April
2020
Daily Focus : 20 April 2020,Accumulate and DCA on Dip
(views 573)
decelerating number of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases. As a result, several countries have started to ease their lockdown and reopened their economy. In the U.S., Congress is close to concluding an additional relief package for SME. In Thailand, the Government Gazette has published the decrees for emergency borrowing of Bt1.9tn, which is sooner than expected. However, we
believe the indexs strong rallies last week have somewhat factored in the said factor. Hence, we continue to view that the index has limited upside in the near term. Also, we still need to monitor if the number of infections will turn toaccelerate after the l ockdown eases or not. This week, keep an eye on banks 1Q20 earnings results. If they come in weaker than expected, the market may retreat. Given that, we recommend our investors to wait to accumulate when the market decreases.
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17
April
2020
Daily Focus : 17 April 2020,Accumulate and DCA on Dip
(views 553)
We expect the SET to see a technical rebound in the near term. To elaborate, the index will move within 1,180-1,230 today due to theืmarket sentiment, which is more positive. Although the U.S. weekly jobless claims were higher than expected, there was a news report that Gileads Remdesivir was proved to be effective in the treatment of COVID19. Also, several countries have eased their lockdown. Nonetheless, investors should continue to monitor if the number of infections turns to accelerate after they have reopened. Also, what are the economic impacts of COVID-19 and its effect on 1Q20 corporate earnings? This morning, China will release its 1Q20 GDP. In this regard, the market expects it to decrease by 6.5% Y-Y. We recommend our investors wait to accumulate stocks when the index decreases. Initially, we expect the first support at 1,150-1,170 points (+/-).
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16
April
2020
Daily Focus : 16 April 2020,Take Profit into Strength //Accumulate and DCA on Dip
(views 558)
We expect the SET to move sideways down within 1,200-1,250 points. According to the latest information, the number of confirmed cases began to rise again. Also, the market starts to turn to pay attention to the economic impact of COVID-19, which affects the worlds GDP and puts pressure on corporate profit. Specifically, we expect listed companies profit to be lackluster in 1Q20 and deteriorate in 2Q20. In the U.S., several economic data came in weaker than expected. In this regard, U.S. weekly jobless claims are due out tonight, and the market expects it to increase by 5.1mn. Also, the SET begins to be expensive. Currently, it trades on 2020 PER of 16.1x after the Bloomberg Consensus cut its EPS forecast to Bt76.8 (-10.1% Y-Y). Given that, we view the markets upside as limited. Also, the index may retreat, which will serve as an opportunity to accumulate.
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15
April
2020
Daily Focus : 15 April 2020,Take Profit into Strength //Accumulate Back and DCA on Dip
(views 559)
We expect the SET to move within 1,230-1,270 points. In this regard, we expect energy to weigh on the market after crude prices plunged by 10%. Also, the IMF has cut its 2020 world GDP growth forecast to -3%, which is its worst since 1930. Under this assumption, the Thai GDP will decrease by 6.7%.
Although the market will pay attention to the COVID-19 situation, which gradually improves, we view that the index has reflected most of the positive news. In the future, investors will turn to focus on the 1Q20 earnings season, which will gradually be out from late this week whether it will come in lower or higher than expected to make a better full-year profit forecast. Currently, we believe the market has a limited upside. Also, the index trades on 2020 PER of 16.3x after the latest Bloomberg Consensus cut its EPS forecast to Bt77.1 (-9.8% Y-Y). Given that, we expect the SET to retreat shortly.
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14
April
2020
Daily Focus : 14 April 2020,Short-Term Profit Taking at around 1,250//Accumulate Back and DCA on Dip
(views 499)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways within 1,200-1,250 points. In particular, we believe the market has factored in most of the optimism over the number of infections around the world, which starts to decelerate. In the future, the market will shift its focus to the 1Q20 earnings season whether it will come in lower or higher than expected so that investors could have a better clearer full-year picture. In this regard,we continue to view that the markets upside limits to 1,250 points. At the said level, it is equal to 2020 PER of 16x, assuming the latest BloombergConsensuss EPS of Bt77.9 (-8.8% Y-Y). When the index gets there, we view it as an opportunity to sell to lock in short-term profit. After that, we recommend our investors wait for the market to retreat to buy back for medium- to long-term investments.
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13
April
2020
Daily Focus : 13 April 2020,Short-Term Profit Taking at around 1,240-1,250//Accumulate Back and DCA on Dip
(views 536)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways. To elaborate, we expect it to move within a wide range of 1,200-1,250 points. In this regard, we do
not expect power generation to benefit much after the OPEC+ reached a deal to cut oil output by 9.7mn barrels per day at their emergency meeting last night because it is even lower than the cut of 10mn barrels per day agreed earlier. Meanwhile, the COVID- 19 pandemic begins to resolve after the number of infections around the world,including Thailand, decelerates. However, equity markets around the globe, as well as the SET, have rallied by over 20% from the bottom of this round to reflect most of the optimism. Besides, one crucial factor remains and needs monitoring. It is the 1Q20
earnings season, which we expect to begin to feel the impact of COVID-19. Once it is released, we will be able to make a better full-year estimate. In terms of valuation, the SET currently trades on a higher 2020 PER of 15.7x, which is not cheap. Moreover, we expect the market to gradually lower its EPS forecast. According to the latest Bloomberg Consensus, it decreases to Bt78.3 (-8.4% Y-Y). Given that, we expect the SETs upside to limit to 1,250 points. At the said level, it will serve as an opportunity to take short-term profit. After that, wait for the market to retreat to buy back fundamental stocks for medium- to long-term investment.
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10
April
2020
Daily Focus : 10 April 2020,Short-Term Profit Taking at around 1,240-1,250//Accumulate Back and DCA on Dip
(views 579)
We expect the SET to move sideways down within 1,180-1,240 points. In particular, we expect the energy sector to continue to see pressure from selling after crude tumbled. Although the OPEC+ managed to agree on coordinated acts to cut oil output by 10mn barrels per day, the market viewed
that it was not enough to fight the impact of COVID-19. Nevertheless, the market still has a catalyst. In its latest move, the Fed announced an additional economic stimulus of US$2.3tn to help SMEs. Meanwhile, the SET has surged by over 20% from the bottom of this round due to the optimism over the COVID-19 pandemic,which starts to increase at a decelerating rate. However, the strong rally is not in line with the economy and listed companies profit. In terms of valuation, the Thai equity market currently trades on a 2020 PER of 15.4x, which starts to be demanding. Besides, we expect continued downward revisions in the markets EPS forecast. According to the latest Bloomberg Consensus, it decreases to Bt78.9 (-7.7% Y-Y). Given that, we view the markets upside limits to 1,250 points. At the said level, it will serve as an opportunity to sell to lock in short-term profit. After that, wait for the market to retreat to accumulate fundamental stocks for medium- to long-term investments.
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09
April
2020
Daily Focus : 9 April 2020,Short-Term Profit Taking at around 1,240-1,250//Accumulate Back and DCA on Dip
(views 727)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,180-1,240 points.Today, investors need to keep an eye on one crucial factor, i.e. results from OPEC+
meeting, whether they will cooperate and agree on an output cut of 10mn barrels per day, in line with the news earlier or not. Meanwhile, the energy sector has rallied sharply to reflect the said factor. Also, equity markets around the world, including the SET, have surged by over 20% from the bottom of this round to reflect the optimism over the COVID-19 situation after the number of infections around the world increase at a sharply decelerating rate. In terms of valuation, the SET currently trades on a 2020 PER of about 15.2x, which starts to be expensive. Also, we expect downward revisions
in the SETs EPS forecast from the latest Bloomberg Consensus of Bt79.5. Hence, we view that the SETs upside limits to 1,250 points. At the said level, we view it as an opportunity to lock in short-term profit and wait for the market to retreat to accumulate fundamental stocks for medium- to long-term investments.
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08
April
2020
Daily Focus : 8 April 2020,Short-Term Profit Taking at around 1,200-1,250//Accumulate Back and DCA on Dip
(views 652)
We expect the SET to move sideways to sideways down within 1,190-1,240 points after its sharp rally yesterday. To elaborate, energy might see some
profit-taking in the near term after crude tumbled overnight while waiting for results from OPEC+ meeting tomorrow. Although the number of COVID-19 infections around the world starts to increase at a decelerating rate, we still need to closely monitor the situation. Besides, equity markets around the world have rallied to reflect the said optimism. In Thailand, the SET currently trades on a 2020 PER of about 15x, which starts to be demanding. Also, we expect the market to gradually revise down the SETs EPS forecast from the current Bloomberg Consensus of Bt80. Given that, we view the strong rally as an opportunity for short-term profit-taking. After that, wait for the market to retreat to accumulate fundamental stocks for medium- to long-term
investments.
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07
April
2020
Daily Focus : 7 April 2020,Short-Term Profit Taking at around 1,200+-//Accumulate or DCA on Dip
(views 585)
We expect the SET to rise to test 1,170-1,180 points thanks to a more relaxed market sentiment after investors responded positively to the number of new COVID-19 cases, which increased at a decelerating rate. In this regard, we expect energy to continue to lead the market, in line with oil prices, which rallied due to optimism that Saudi Arabia and Russia would work together to cut oil production at a meeting this Thursday. However, we view that the markets upside starts will begin to
limit at the 1,200 (+/-) level due to the impacts of COVID-19 on the economy and listed companies profits. According to the latest Bloomberg Consensus, the SETs EPS stands at Bt80 and looks set to continue to decrease. At 1,200 points, it will be equal to 2020 PER of about 15x. Given that, we see the SETs trading at the said level as an opportunity to sell to lock in short-term profit. Also, we view the markets decreasing to trade close to the 1,000 points (+/-) as a chance to accumulate or do DCA on fundamental stocks for medium- to long-term investments.
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03
April
2020
Daily Focus : 3 April 2020,Short-Term Profit Taking around 1,200+- //Accumulate or DCA on Dip
(views 575)
We expect the SET to continue to move in positive territory. In particular, we expect it to rise to test 1,150-1,170 points, led by the energy sector after crude prices surged by over 20% overnight after President Trump expressed confidence that Saudi Arabia and Russia would be able to strike a deal and cooperate to cut oil production. In Thailand, the economic cabinet will hold an extraordinary meeting today to mull the countrys third virus relief package. Nonetheless, we view that the markets upside will begin to limit at 1,180-1,200 points because the Thai economy and listed companies profits are hit hard this year by the impact of COVID-19.In this regard, we expect the market to gradually decrease the SETs EPS estimate from the current Bloomberg Consensus of Bt83.5. Also, the index may retreat. If this happens, we view the 1,000 level as an opportunity to accumulate or do DCA on fundamental stocks for medium- to long-term investments.
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02
April
2020
(views 528)
We expect the SET to decrease, in line with equity markets around the world. In particular, we expect the index to move within 1,070-1,130 points. Although the U.S. manufacturing ISM came in higher than expected, the market remained concerned over the number of infections and deaths in the U.S., which continued to increase after President Trumps warning. As a result, funds
turned to flee risk assets once again. This is seen from the U.S. bond yield, which decreased. Also, the Dollar Index increased. In Thailand, although the number of confirmed cases did not surge, the risk remains. Besides, the economic impact is massive. In this regard, we begin to see downward revisions on listed companiesprofit estimates. According to Bloomberg Consensus, the current EPS is Bt84.5. It is down from Bt85.7 early this week. Given that, the SET may retreat to trade close to the 1,000 level once more. At the said level, we view it as an opportunity to begin to accumulate or do DCA on fundamental stocks for medium- to longterm investments.
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01
April
2020
Daily Focus : 1 April 2020,Accumulate or DCA on Dip
(views 419)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,100-1,135 points after yesterdays strong rally. In the latest development, President Trump warned that the COVID-19 outbreak in the U.S. could sharply escalate in the next 1-2 weeks. This morning, investors need to closely monitor one crucial factor. It is Chinas Caixin Manufacturing PMI in March whether it will also beat the consensus forecast of 45.5 or not. In Thailand, the COVID-19 epidemic may speed up, which will have a severe impact on the economy. Also, we expect downward revisions of listed companies profit estimate from the current consensus, which calls for an
EPS of Bt85.7. Given that, the SET may retreat to trade close to the 1,000 level once again. At that point, its valuation will be equal to a PER of about 12x and a PBV of roughly 1x, which we view as an opportunity to begin to accumulate and do DCA on fundamental stocks for medium- to long-term investment.
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31
March
2020
Daily Focus : 31 March 2020,Accumulate or DCA on Dip
(views 390)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,050-1,120 points after the market rallied last week to reflect the governments stimulus to mitigate the impacts of COVID-19. At the moment, investors still need to monitor the number of infections, particularly in Thailand after it risks escalating in the next month. Meanwhile, crude continued to tumble. Specifically, it touched US$20 a barrel. This will continue to put pressure on the energy sector. Since the aforementioned factors have significant impacts on the Thai economy, we expect downward revisions on listed companies profit estimates in the future from the current consensus EPS of Bt85.7. As a result, the SET may decrease to test a level close to 1,000 points. At that point, its valuation will be equal to a PER of about 12x and a PBV of roughly 1x, which we view as an opportunity to begin to accumulate and do DCA against fundamental stocks for medium- to long-term investment.
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30
March
2020
Daily Focus : 30 March 2020,Accumulate or DCA on Dip
(views 397)
We expect the SET to move in negative territory. Specifically, we expect it to trade within 1,050-1,100 points after both U.S. and
European equity markets tumbled last Friday as the number of confirmed casesand deaths from COVID-19 continued to jump, particularly in the U.S. and Europe. In Thailand, there is still a risk that the figures will surge. As a result, concerns persist that it will hurt the economy, making it weaken around the world. Meanwhile, crude has decreased to touch US$20 a barrel. It will put pressure on the energy sector, which rallied strongly last week. Given that, we continue to view that the SET will be volatile. Also, there is a chance the index will decrease to test a level close to 1,000 points. At that point, its valuation will be equal to a
PER of about 12x and a PBV of roughly 1x, which we view as an opportunity to begin to accumulate and do DCA against fundamental stocks for medium- to longterm investment.
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27
March
2020
Daily Focus : 27 March 2020,Accumulate or DCA on Dip
(views 486)
We expect the SET to continue to move in the positive territory. Specifically, it will trade within 1,070-1,130 points due to calm market sentiment. Also, the market fear decreased after the U.S. had passed a US$2bn virus aid package. As a result, more funds flowed into risk assets. Nonetheless, investors still need to continue to monitor the outbreak situation in Thailand. Also, there could be additional measures under the emergency decree, which willhave a significant impact on the economy. Given the epidemic, the market expects the Thai GDP to record the sharpest loss since the Tom Yum Kung crisis. In particular, the BoT forecasts that the economy will contract by 5.3%. As a result, the SET may continue to be volatile and decrease to test a level close to 1,000 points. At the said level, it will be equal to a PER of 12x and a PBV of 1x. At that point, we view it as an opportunity to begin to accumulate or do DCA on fundamental stocks for medium- to long-term investments.
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26
March
2020
Daily Focus : 26 March 2020,Hold Cash and Accumulate or DCA on Dip!!!
(views 430)
We expect the SET to move sideways within a wide range of 1,050-1,100 points. In the near term, the index could continue to rally due to market sentiment, which is more relaxed, and liquidity that floods the market after central banks around the world inject massive cash into the system.However, investors still need to closely monitor the COVID-19 outbreak in
Thailand, which still risks surging. Also, it currently has profound impacts on the economy. In particular, the BoT expects 2020 GDP to contract by 5.3%, the lowest since the Tom Yum Kung crisis. Given that, we expect the SET to remain volatile. Also, the index may decrease to test 1,000 points or lower once again. In terms of valuation, that will be equal to a PER of about 12x and a PBV of roughly 1x. At that point, we view it serves as an opportunity to accumulate or make a DCA on fundamental stocks for medium- to long-term investments.
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25
March
2020
Daily Focus : 25 March 2020,Hold Cash and Accumulate or DCA on Dip!!!
(views 380)
We expect the SET to move up after investment sentiment eases.Specifically, we expect the index to move within a wide range of 1,000-1,100 points. In the near term, the SET sees support from stimulus packages and liquidity boost by central banks around the world. As a result, international funds may flow out at a slower pace in the near term or they may even turn to stream into Thailand after over Bt100bn have fled the country this year. Besides, the cabinet has announced additionalmeasures to help those affected by COVID-19. Nonetheless, investors still need to closely monitor the number of infections in Thailand, which looks set to continue to surge, and the details of the emergency decree, which will become effective on March 26. Given all that, we maintain our view that a SET index of 950-1,000 points, which is equal to a PER of about 12x and a PBV of 1x serves as an opportunity to accumulate and adopt the dollar-cost-average (DCA) strategy on fundamental stocks for long-term investment.
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24
March
2020
Daily Focus : 24 March 2020,Hold Cash and Accumulate on Dip!!!
(views 402)
We expect the SET to continue to be volatile. In particular,we expect the index to move within 970-1,070 points. In the near term, the SET may bounce back due to the stimulus measures. Among the latest developments,the Fed announced limited QE and cut its REPO rate to ward off a credit crunch.However, investors need to keep an eye on the cabinet meeting in Thailand today whether there will be additional packages to help those affected by the temporary closure and measures to contain the Covid-19 outbreak or not after the number of confirmed cases in the country continues to surge. Besides, there begin to be risks that our healthcare system will fall in the future. Given that, we maintain our view that a SET of 950-1,000 points, which is equal to a PER of about 12x and a PBV of roughly 1x will serve as an opportunity to accumulate fundamental stocks for long-term investment.
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23
March
2020
Daily Focus : 23 March 2020,Hold Cash and Accumulate on Dip!!!
(views 452)
We expect the SET to tumble this morning, in line with both U.S. and Asian equity markets after the number of infections and deaths around the world from COVID-19 continued to surge. Also, the situation in Thailand begins to become a concern. Meanwhile, crude plunged, putting pressure on the energy sector. Last Friday, the MPC held a special meeting and announced an emergency rate cut of 0.25% even though they will meet on Wednesday, March 25. Besides, the BoT announced measures to shore up liquidity in the bond market. Together they reiterate that the Thai economy is hit hard and demands urgent measures. Given that, we expect the SET to move within 1050-1,100 points today. Besides, we view that the index will begin to be attractive for accumulation at the 1,000 level or lower. It will be equal to a PER of 12x and a PBV of about 1x, which starts to be undemanding.
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20
March
2020
Daily Focus : 20 March 2020,Hold Cash and Accumulate on Dip!!!
(views 538)
We expect the SET to continue to be volatile. In particular, we expect it to move within the 1010-1,070 range as the market continues to closely monitor the Covid-19 outbreak. The epidemic remains gravely concerned because the number of confirmed cases and death toll continue to surge 12% D-D and 12.1% D-D, respectively. However, there could
be supporting factors in the near term after crude prices recover. Also, central banks around the world are aggressively injecting liquidity to support the economy. We maintain our view that the SET will start to see buyback momentum at the 950-1,000 level. At that point, the index will trade on a PER of 11.5-12x and a PBV of about 1x, which begins to be inexpensive.Given that, we recommend our investors keep cash and start to accumulate fundamental stocks when the market tumbles to trade close to the said level after the partial profit-taking at 1,400 points.
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19
March
2020
Daily Focus : 19 March 2020,Hold Cash and Accumulate on Dip!!!
(views 492)
We expect the SET to continue to be volatile. To elaborate, we expect the index to move within 990-1,070 points as the Covid-19 outbreak remains gravely concerned. In particular, the number of confirmed cases and death toll around the world surged 10.4% D-D and 12.1% D-D, respectively. Besides, crude prices tumbled due to global recession fear, which will put tremendous pressure on energy stocks. Nonetheless, the market is somewhat supported by stimulus packages, including both monetary and fiscal measures from central banks around the world. In the latest development, ECB has announced emergency asset purchases of 750bn euros to cope with liquidity risk. Also, it will be positive for long-term economic recovery. Given that,we maintain our call that there will begin to be buyback at the 950-1,000 level. At that point, the SET will trade on a PER of 11.5-12x and a PBV of about 1x, which starts to be undemanding. Also, we recommend our investors keep the cash and start to accumulate fundamental stocks when the market tumbles to trade close to the said level after the partial profit-taking at the 1,400 level.
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18
March
2020
Daily Focus : 18 March 2020,Hold Cash and Accumulate on Dip!!!
(views 386)
We expect the SET to continue to be volatile. In particular, we expect the benchmark index to move within 1,000-1,060 points as the market continues to monitor the Covid-19 outbreak situation after the rising number of confirmed cases in Thailand. Moreover, crude tumbled. It serves as another factor that puts pressure on energy stocks, making them weigh on the market. However, we view that buyback will begin at 950-1,000 points. At the said level, the index will trade on a PER of 11.5-12x and a PBV of about 1x, which starts to be inexpensive. Besides, we expect support from stimuli, including central banks monetary policy and additional fiscal measures. In this regard, we recommend that investors keep the cash after the partial profit-taking at the 1,400 level and begin to accumulate fundamental stocks when the market decreases to trade close to the aforementioned level.
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17
March
2020
Daily Focus : 17 March 2020,Hold Cash and Wait to Accumulate!!!
(views 401)
We expect the SET to swing wildly. Also, the index may continue to retreat due to the persistently high concern over the Covid-19 outbreak situation. In Thailand, the number of infections continues to surge, eventhough the government is yet to declare that the country has entered Stage 3. Meanwhile, crude prices plunge due to the lockdown of several countries. This puts pressure on demand, while there is too much supply after oil-producing countries talks do not progress. However, we view that there will be buyback at
the 950-1,000 level. At that point, the SET will trade at a PER of 11.5-12x and a PBV of about 1x, which starts to be inexpensive. In this regard, we recommend that investors keep cash and begin to gradually accumulate at the said level after the partial profit-taking at the 1,400 level
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16
March
2020
Daily Focus : 16 March 2020,Hold Cash and Wait to Accumulate!!!
(views 402)
We expect the SET to continue to swing wildly from last week as it continues to see pressure from the COVID-19 outbreak. According to the latest data, the number of confirmed cases in Thailand begins to surge. This confirms our view that the epidemic is close to entering Phase 3. Internationally, the Fed held an emergency meeting last night and announced another surprise rate cut of 0.75% to 0-0.25%. Also,the U.S. central bank will launch a massive US$700bn quantitative easing program to stir its economy. Although this is positive over the long run, we expect the market to respond negatively in the short term as long as the COVID-19 outbreak does not show signs of easing. Given that, we maintain our call for investors to keep cash after the partial profit-taking at the 1,400 level. Also, investors should closely monitor the situation. Nonetheless, if the SET retreats to its lower band at the 950-1,000 level, we view that it serves as an opportunity to begin to gradually buy.
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13
March
2020
Daily Focus : 13 March 2020,Hold Cash!!!
(views 434)
We expect the SET to continue to fall due to negative market sentiment. In particular, the Thai main index may retreat to test the 950 level due to the COVID-19 situation, which is deeply concerned at the moment. In Thailand, it is imminent that the country will enter Stage 3. Given that, many expect a global recession in 2020. At this juncture, we maintain our call for investors to hold cash after the partial profit-taking at the 1,400 level last week and closely monitor the situation. Currently, it is difficult to gauge the indexs downside because the impacts of COVID-19 are still unfathomable. However, if and when the SET decreases to trade close to the lower band of our estimate, we view it as an opportunity to begin to accumulate.
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12
March
2020
Daily Focus : 12 March 2020,Hold Cash//Stay in Defensive and Dividend Play
(views 395)
We expect the SET to fall to test the 1,200-1,220 level due to negative market sentiment after the COVID-19 outbreak concern increases. According to the latest information, WHO has declared the epidemic a pandemic.In Thailand, the number of infections increases and the outbreak may enter its Phase 3 shortly. Although the whole world has poured in stimulus packages,including both monetary and fiscal measures, if coronavirus continues to spread widely, we expect the global economy to shrink this year. Meanwhile, crude remains volatile and may continue to fall. In this regard, see if OPEC+ can turn to cooperate to create balance in the crude market or not. Given that, we maintain our call for investors to hold cash and closely monitor the situation after the partial profit-taking at the 1,400 level last week. For ones main portfolio, stick to defensive and dividend play.
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11
March
2020
Daily Focus : 11 March 2020,Stay in Defensive and Dividend Play //Hold Cash
(views 370)
We expect the SET to continue to be volatile, moving within1,250-1,290 points. In the near term, although the index sees support from a technical rebound and the governments stimulus package that includes both monetary and fiscal measures, there is a pressing factor that needs monitoring. It is the coronavirus outbreak, which continues to escalate, particularly in Europe and the U.S. In Thailand,the epidemic still risks going to Phase 3. Meanwhile, we expect crude prices to continue to swing wildly. In this regard, investors need to keep an eye on OPEC+ whether they will be able to turn to cooperate and balance the crude market or not. Given that, we maintain our call for investors to hold cash and closely monitor the situation after some profit-taking at the 1,400 level last week. For ones main portfolio, hold defensive and dividend play because we expect them to continue to outperform the market.
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10
March
2020
Daily Focus : 10 March 2020,Stay in Defensive and Dividend Play //Hold Cash
(views 483)
We expect the SET to swing wildly. In particular, the energy sector will continue to weigh on the market due to crude, which is still set to fall.In this regard, we expect the index to move within a wide range of 1,220-1,270 points as the global economy is pressured by COVID-19, which spreads globally. Besides, OPEC and non-OPEC members cannot agree on a production cut. In the near term, the market may see a technical rebound after its quick steep fall.Also, countries around the world have introduced relief packages, including both
monetary and fiscal measures. Nonetheless, we continue to recommend our investors hold cash and closely monitor the situation after some profit-taking at the 1,400 level last week. For ones main portfolio, hold defensive and dividend play because they outperform the market.
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09
March
2020
Daily Focus : 9 March 2020,Stay in Defensive and Dividend Play //Hold Cash
(views 508)
We expect the SET to decrease to test the 1,300-1,320 level once again due to sharply negative market sentiment after the COVID-19 outbreak remains a global threat. Also, crude tumbled by over 30% after OPEC and non- OPEC were unable to agree on a production cut. As a result, investors continued to sell risk assets. In particular, we expect the energy sector to see pressure and weigh heavily on the market. Given that, we recommend our investors hold cash after the short-term profit-taking at the 1,400 level last week. For ones main
portfolio, hold defensive and dividend plays.
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06
March
2020
Daily Focus : 6 March 2020,Accumulate on Dip//Selective Play
(views 376)
We expect the SET to decrease to trade within 1,360-1,380 after the index rallied to test the 1,400 level, as expected. In general, the market sentiment is bearish after U.S. equity markets turned to dive, pressured by the COVID-19 outbreak outside China, where the number of infections continued to surge. Since it is expected to have significant impacts on the global economy,central banks around the globe trimmed their policy rate to support the economy.This will also include the MPC, which we expect to lower its benchmark rate late this month. In Thailand, we still need to monitor if the epidemic enters Stage 3 or not. Given that, we recommend our investors wait to accumulate stocks back, particularly when the SET decreases to trade close to 1,320-1,300 after our call for short-term profit-taking at the 1,400 level yesterday. For ones main portfolio, continue to hold defensive and dividend play.
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05
March
2020
Daily Focus : 5 March 2020,Take Short-Term Profit at 1,400 //Selective Play
(views 453)
We expect the SET to move up to test the 1,390-1,400 level thanks to market sentiment, which is relaxed after Wall Street surged because Joe Biden won across Super Tuesday primary states. Also, the market is optimistic about the stimulus package of central banks around the globe. According to the latest data, the IMF prepares US$50bn in credit facilities to combat the COVID-19 crisis. However, we expect the market to remain volatile. Moreover, we will continue to keep an eye on the COIVD-19 outbreak, which has substantial impacts on the economy, whether it will enter Stage 3 or not. Given that, we believe the SETs gain will be just a short-term rebound and recommend our investors sell to lock in short-term profit at the 1,400 level (+/-). After that, wait to buy them back when the market decreases to trade close to 1,320-1,300 points. For ones main portfolio, focus on holding defensive and dividend plays.
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04
March
2020
Daily Focus : 4 March 2020,Stay in Defensive and Dividend Plays//Short-Term Profit Taking at 1,400
(views 478)
We expect the SET to continue to be volatile. In particular, we expect the index to move within 1,350-1,400 points after the Fed made an emergency rate cut of 0.5% before a planned meeting in the middle of this month. As a result, the market may feel concerned that the COIVD-19 outbreak can have wider-than-expected impacts of the economy. Besides, we believe that other central banks, i.e., ECB, BoJ, and BoT, will also trim their policy rate or further ease their monetary policy. Nonetheless, Thailand is risking to enter Stage 3. Hence, we recommend that our investors take short-term profit if the SET increases to test the 1,400 level and wait to buy them back when it retreats to 1,320-1,300. For ones main portfolio, continue to hold defensive and dividend play.
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03
March
2020
Daily Focus : 3 March 2020,Stay in Defensive and Dividend Plays //Expect Short-Term Rebound
(views 405)
We expect the SET to see a technical rebound after the index continued to decrease in the past two weeks by over 10%. Today, the SET may rise to test the 1,360 level thanks to market sentiment, which is more relaxed after Wall Street surged, propelled by the expectation that the Fed will trim its policy rate at a meeting this month because a cut will be positive for risk assets. However, investors still need to closely monitor the COVID-19 situation as the outbreak of the deadly virus risks entering Stage 3 in Thailand. In the near term, we recommend our investors bet on a rebound. However, we continue to recommend that investors hold defensive and dividend plays in their main portfolio. In this regard, we view a retreat to the 1,300 level as an opportunity to begin to accumulate fundamental stocks.
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02
March
2020
Daily Focus : 2 March 2020,Stay in Defensive and Dividend Plays
(views 388)
We expect the SET to continue to trade down to test its crucial support of 1,300 points due to market sentiment, which remains gravely negative. Equity markets around the globe continued to dive due to concerns over the COVID-19 outbreak, which had spread all regions outside China. Moreover, the number of infections continued to escalate. In Thailand, the risk is high that the country will enter Stage 3, and this situation needs close monitoring. However, the SET has dropped by over 15% YTD. Also, several indicators show a strong
oversold signal. Given that, we continue to expect buyback at the 1,300 level, which will serve as an opportunity to bet on a short-term recovery. For ones main portfolio, we continue to recommend that investors hold defensive and dividend plays.
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28
February
2020
Daily Focus : 28 February 2020,Stay in Defensive and Dividend Plays
(views 365)
We expect the SET to move down to test the 1,350 level once again due to sharply negative market sentiment after equity markets around the world tumbled due to fears over the COVID-19 outbreak, which has spread globally. Also, its impacts on the economy increase. In Thailand, the risk remains high that the outbreak will enter Stage 3. However, the market has tumbled by over 10% YTD to reflect the downside risks. Hence, we view the SET should not trade below 1,300 points in a worst-case scenario. At the said level, we view it as an opportunity to buy to bet on a V-shape recovery after the COVID-19 outbreak eases in 2H20.
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27
February
2020
Daily Focus : 27 February 2020,Stay in Defensive and Dividend Plays//Expect Short-Term Rebounds
(views 411)
We expect the SET to ease to test 1,350 points due to negative market sentiment after COVID-19 begins to spread around the globe. In Thailand, the risk that the country will enter Stage 3 increases,which will have significant impacts on the economy in 1H20. However, the SET dropped 10% MTD and 13.5% YTD. They have reflected most of the downside risks in a very short time. Hence, we expect a technical rebound in the near term. In a worst-case scenario where the SET plunges to hit 1,300 points, we view it as an opportunity to buy to bet on a V-Shape recovery after the COVID-19 outbreak eases in 2H20.
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26
February
2020
Daily Focus : 26 February 2020,Stay in Defensive and Dividend Plays //Bet on Rebounds at around 1,400-1,420
(views 350)
We expect the SET to decrease to test its support of 1,400-1,420 once again due to negative market sentiment. To elaborate, the concern over the COVID-19 outbreak increases after several countries find their first confirmed case and the virus begins to spread globally. In Thailand, the plague risks going to Stage 3, which will have significant impacts on the countrys economy in 1H20. However, the SET has dropped by over 100 points in the past week, which is rather quick. Besides, the index starts to enter oversold territory. Hence, there is a chance that the index will see a short-term technical rebound after its sharp falls. In this regard, we continue to believe that defensive and dividend plays, e.g., ICT, healthcare, and PF&REIT will outperform the market.
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25
February
2020
Daily Focus : 25 February 2020,Park cash in Defensive and Dividend Play//Bet on Rebound at around 1,400-1,420
(views 379)
We expect the SET to continue to retreat due to market sentiment, which remains bearish due to COVID-19. However, we expect a technical rebound in the short term after the index took a dive of over 100 points in the past week and starts to enter oversold territory. Given that, we expect the SET to move within 1,415-1,440. Nonetheless, the market still risks a chance that Thailand will enter Stage 3 of the outbreak, which will have negative impacts on the economic outlook and corporate earnings in 1H20. In this regard, we view that
defensive and dividend plays, e.g. ICT, healthcare, and PF&REIT will outperform the market.
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24
February
2020
Daily Focus : 24 February 2020,Accumulate on dip//Hold defensive and dividend plays
(views 657)
We expect the SET to move in negative territory or within 1,480-1,500 points as the COVID-19 outbreak turns to put pressure on the market after the number of new infections outside China continued to increase,particularly in South Korea and Japan. In Thailand, the plague continues to risk getting into Stage 3. As a result, we expect the economy and corporate earnings in 1H20 to be dull. This week, investors need to keep an eye on the no-confidence debate. Given that, we continue to believe that defensive and dividend plays, e.g. the ICT sector, healthcare shares, and PF&REIT will outperform the market.
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21
February
2020
Daily Focus : 21 February 2020,Accumulate on Dip//Selective Play
(views 393)
We expect the SET to move sideways and may see a shortterm technical rebound at its support 1,480 points. However, the surge is limited by weak domestic economy due to several factors including the COVID-19 impact, especially in 1Q20. Given that, we view that defensive and dividend plays such as telecom, healthcare, upstream energy sectors and PF&REIT should outperform the market during this difficult time. For longer-term investors, we view it as an opportunity to accumulate fundamental stocks during 1Q20-2Q20 waiting for the
economy to resume its growth.
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20
February
2020
Daily Focus : 20 February 2020, Accumulate on at 1,550 or Below//Selective Play
(views 557)
We expect the SET to continue to retreat. In this regard, the indexs crucial support is at 1,495-1,500. At the said level, the SET may see a short-term technical rebound due to the energy sector. In particular, we expect it to provide support after crude price surges. Meanwhile, the factor that puts a cap on the market at this time is the concern over the economic impact of COVID-19, which has made many to revise down their 2020 GDP forecast to below 2%. Also, the Constitutional Court will rule on the ECs petition to dissolve the Future Forward Party tomorrow. If the outcome is negative, it could put pressure on politics. Given that, when the market decreases to trade close to the 1,500 level or lower, we view it as an opportunity to accumulate fundamental stocks and place short-term bets to speculate on rebounds.
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18
February
2020
Daily Focus : 18 February 2020,Take Short-Term Profit at 1,550+- //Selective Play
(views 426)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways within 1,520-1535. In general, the market continues to lack any fresh catalyst. Also, it needs to continue to monitor the coronavirus outbreak, particularly after the Ministry of Public Health has issued a recommendation for travelers to avoid traveling to Japan and Singapore. Meanwhile, the Thai GDP and 4Q19 corporate earnings outlook are weak. Besides, they look set to deteriorate in 2020 due to several downside risks, both internal and external. Given that, we expect the SETs upside to limit to the 1,550 level, at which it will serve as an opportunity to lock in short-term profit. By contrast, it will be attractive to accumulate at the 1,500 points or lower.
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17
February
2020
Daily Focus : 17 February 2020,Short-Term Profit at 1,550+- //Selective Play
(views 412)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways within 1,520-1535 points. In this regard, we expect upstream energy shares to provide support for the market thanks to increased crude prices. Moreover, we expect the mobile operator sector, particularly ADVANC to increase after the concern over the 5G spectrum auction has eased. Today, keep an eye on the Thai GDP in 4Q19, which the market expects to increase by 2%. Also, monitor NESDBs new economic forecast that includes downside risks, including drought, the delay in the government budget, and the coronavirus outbreak. They are negative for the economy, particularly in the first quarter. Given that, we expect the SETs upside to limit to 1,550. At the said level, it will serve as an opportunity to take short-term profit. By contrast, it will be attractive to accumulate at the 1,500 points or lower.
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14
February
2020
Daily Focus : 14 February 2020,Take Short-Term Profit at 1,550+- //Selective Play
(views 437)
We expect the SET to move sideways in a range 1,525-1,540.Concerns over the ongoing coronavirus outbreak continue to weigh on investor sentiment. Good news was that house passed the 2020 budget bill. This is a clear catalyst for contractors, the building material, IT contractors, bank sectors. We, however, have a negative view on 1H20 domestic economy, so we continue to believe that the SETs gain begins to limit at around 1,550. We recommend our investors take short-term profit. The 1,500 level will serve as an attractive level to place new bets.
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12
February
2020
Daily Focus : 12 February 2020,Take Short-Term Profit at 1,540-1,550 (+/-)//Selective Play
(views 400)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,515-1530 after the Fed Chair continued to have a bullish view on the U.S. economy. However, investors still need to keep an eye on the impacts of the coronavirus outbreak. In Thailand, the re-vote of the second and third readings of the draft 2020 budget bill is scheduled tomorrow. Given that, we expect the SETs gain to limit to 1,550.At the said level, it will serve as an opportunity to take short-term profit on the back of the weak economic backdrop in 4Q19-1Q20. Also, we expect 4Q19 corporate earnings that will come in the next two weeks to be lackluster. We view 1,500 as an attractive level to invest.
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11
February
2020
Daily Focus : 11 February 2020,Take Short-Term Profit at 1,540-1,550 (+/-)//Selective Play
(views 423)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways after the index increased quite considerably last week and after the Constitutional Courts ruling that the Parliament re-votes the second and third readings of the draft 2020 budget bill. Given that, the market will turn its focus on the coronavirus outbreak. Although the number of confirmed cases starts to increase at a lower rate, we still need to monitor if the virus develops or mutates. In Thailand, we expect the local economy and 4Q19 corporate earnings that are due out extensively in the next 2-3 weeks to be weak. As a result, we expect the SETs upside to limit to 1,550 (+/-) and recommend our investors sell into strength to lock in short-term profit.
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07
February
2020
Daily Focus : 7 February 2020,Take Short-Term Profit at 1,540- 1,550 (+/-)//Bet on Investment-Related Play
(views 410)
We expect the SET to move sideways down after its strong rallies during the week. In the future, we will continue to monitor the coronavirus outbreak,which continues to spread. Today, the crucial factor will be the Constitutional Courts ruling if the draft 2020 budget bill is valid or not. If the outcome is positive, it will benefit investment-related sectors, i.e. contractors, banks, and IE. Nonetheless, the current economic outlook is dull. Also, we expect 4Q19 corporate earnings, which will come in mostly in the next 2-3 weeks to be weak. Since we expect the SETs upside to limit to 1,550 (+/-), we recommend that our investors sell to lock in short-term profit when the market increases.
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06
February
2020
Daily Focus : 6 February 2020,Take Short-Term Profit at 1,540- 1,550+-//Bet on Energy Play
(views 401)
We expect the SET to continue to move in positive territory,in line with equity markets around the globe, where funds continued to stream into risk assets lately after there were news reports that researchers had found a cure for the coronavirus. In this regard, we expect the SET to rise to test the 1,540-1,550 level. However, two domestic factors need monitoring at the moment. To elaborate, the Constitutional Court will deliver its ruling on the draft 2020 budget bill tomorrow. Also, the court will decide if it will dissolve the Future Forward Party on illegal loans or not on February 21. Given that, we expect the SETs upside will begin to limit at the 1,550 level (+/-). Since the Thai economy remains fragile in 1H20, we recommend our investors sell to take short-termb profit when the market increases.
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05
February
2020
Daily Focus : 5 February 2020,Wait to Take Profit after Bet at 1,500 (+/-)//Speculate on Refinery and Petrochem
(views 374)
We expect the SET to continue to rebound thanks to market sentiment,which continues to be relaxed after U.S. equity markets surged. Specifically, we expect the Thai main index to rise to test 1,530-1,540 points.However, we see it as a near-term rebound as the market continues to closely monitor the coronavirus outbreak. Also, the 4Q19 earnings season outlook is lackluster. Today, we expect the MPC to trim its policy rate by 0.25%. Following our call to accumulate at the 1,500 level, we now recommend our investors to hold, waiting to lock in near-term profit. Finally, refineries and petrochemical stocks may outperform the market at this time.
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04
February
2020
Daily Focus : 4 February 2020,Bet on Rebound at 1,480-1,500 //Maintain Defensive and Dividend Play
(views 371)
We expect the SET to ease in the near term after the index fell below its crucial support of 1,500. However, the SET may also see a technical rebound since the downside is limited after the index has dropped by over 100 points in the past half month to factor in the coronavirus outbreak. Given that, the RSI is now in oversold territory. Meanwhile, the MPC may trim its policy rate by 0.25% at a meeting tomorrow. It could somewhat provide support on market sentiment and help stimulate the broad economy, which remains weak. We
continue to view that the SETs trading at 1480-1,500 range serves as an opportunity to buy to bet on a near-term rebound after investors have cashed in some at the 1,600 level. For the main portfolio, hold fundamental stocks that have recurring income, defensive business, and high dividend yield.
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03
February
2020
Daily Focus : 3 February 2020,Maintain Defensive and Dividend Play//Bet on Rebound at 1480-1,500
(views 401)
We expect the SET to retreat, in line with regional equity markets. Also, the index may fall below the 1,500 level int he near term. Pressure continues to come from the coronavirus outbreak, which affects the economy in 1Q20 at the least. Meanwhile, the Thai economy is still fragile. Besides the deadly virus, the country faces drought, which has an impact on purchasing power.Finally, we expect the 4Q19 earnings season to be lackluster. However, the SET has dropped by about 100 points in the past half a month to reflect the negative
factors. Hence, we believe the indexs downside to begin to limit. Specifically, we expect it at 1480-1,500. Given that, we view it as an opportunity to buy to bet on near-term rebounds after our call for investors to cash in some at 1,600 points. On the main portfolio, continue to hold fundamental stocks that have recurring income, defensive business, and high dividend yield.
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31
January
2020
Daily Focus : 31 January 2020,Maintain Defensive and Dividend Play //Bet on Rebound at 1,500-1,520
(views 435)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways since there has not been any fresh catalyst to provide support. The market will continue to keep an eye on the coronavirus outbreak since both the confirmed cases and the death toll continue to rise. According to the latest information, WHO has declared the outbreak a global health emergency. In Thailand, the economy remains fragile due to the outbreak and drought.Also, the 4Q19 corporate earnings outlook is dull. However, the SETs fall of nearly 100 points in the past half of a month has reflected most of the downside risks. Hence, we believe the downside will begin to limit. Specifically, we expect it at the 1,500 level and view this is an opportunity to trade equity to bet on a near-term rebound after our call for investors to lock in profit at the 1,600 level. On the main portfolio, continue to keep fundamental stocks that have recurring income, defensive business, and high dividend yield.
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30
January
2020
Daily Focus : 30 January 2020,Maintain Defensive and Dividend Play //Bet on Rebound at 1,500 (+/-)
(views 397)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,510-1,530 as the market continues to keep a close watch on the coronavirus outbreak. In particular,investors would like to know the severity and how far the virus will spread in the next month since it will affect the global economy in the near term. Meanwhile, the FED maintained its policy rate at 1.50-1.75%, as expected. In Thailand, keep an eye on a ruling in the proxy voting case related to the draft 2020 budget bill after the Constitutional Court has accepted to hear it yesterday. Besides, it is the 4Q19 earnings season, and we do not expect it to be very bright. However, the SET has sharply decreased to factor in most of the downside risks. Hence, we expect the SETs downside to limit to 1,500 points. At the level, we see it as an opportunity to trade to bet on a near-term rebound. For the main portfolio, continue to hold fundamental stocks that
have recurring income, defensive business, and high dividend yield.
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29
January
2020
Daily Focus : 29 January 2020,Maintain Defensive and Dividend Play //Bet on Rebound at 1,500+-
(views 364)
We expect the SET to move sideways in the near term after its sharp fall in the past two days. In particular, we expect the index to move within 1,500-1,530. Nonetheless, broad market sentiment remains dull since there is no fresh catalyst. Also, we expect the coronavirus outbreak to put pressure on the market in the next month at the least. It will have an impact on the global economy in the near term.In Thailand, eye at the Constitutional Court today whether it will accept to rule on the draft 2020 budget bill over proxy voting or not. Finally, the 4Q19 corporate earnings outlook is weak. Given that, we see the SETs movement at the 1,500 level as an opportunity to place short-term bets after our call for investors to lock in profit at the 1,600 level. For the main portfolio, we continue to recommend our investors keep fundamental stocks that have recurring income, defensive business, and high dividend yield.
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28
January
2020
Daily Focus : 28 January 2020,Maintain Defensive and Dividend Play//Bet on Rebound at 1,500
(views 409)
We expect the SET to continue to move in negative territory.Specifically, the index may decrease to test the 1,500-1,520 level, which is its crucial support. The market continues to be pressured by market sentiment, which is negative as the coronavirus outbreak continues to spread. In this regard, it could affect the global economy in the near term. In Thailand, there are specific downside risks. They include the delay in the 2020 budget bill, which affects government disbursement. Also, we expect corporate earnings to be weak in 4Q19. Given that, we recommend our investors keep cash and wait for buying momentum at the 1,500 level after our call for investors to cash in short-term profit at the 1,600 level. At the 1,500 level, investors could place bets for short-term investment. Also, we recommend that investors hold fundamental stocks that have recurring income, defensive business, and high dividend yield in their main portfolio.
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27
January
2020
Daily Focus : 27 January 2020,Maintain Recurring, Defensive, and Dividend Play
(views 386)
We expect the SET to continue to move down to trade within 1,555-1565 as market sentiment remains negative. The coronavirus continues to spread and the outbreak escalates. The Chinese government has put a temporary ban on group tours, affecting Thai tourism in 1H20. In Thailand, it remains uncertain if the draft 2020 budget bill is voided or not after the proxy voting case. It results in a delay in government disbursement. Meanwhile, the 4Q19 corporate earnings outlook is not bright. Given that, we maintain our call for investors to
keep cash and wait for the market to decrease after we have recommended our investors to lock in short-term profit at 1,600 points. Also, hold fundamental stocks that have recurring income, defensive business, and high dividend yield.
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24
January
2020
Daily Focus : 24 January 2020,Maintain Recurring, Defensive, and Dividend Play
(views 390)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways down within 1,560-1580 as the market continues to be concerned by and monitor the coronavirus outbreaks whether it will escalate and become widespread. Although the ECB maintained its policy rate at a meeting yesterday, the central bank gave a more dovish signal. The decision reflects the ECBs concerns that the eurozone economy remains weak. In Thailand, continue to keep an eye on the draft 2020 budget bill whether it will be void or not. Meanwhile, the 4Q19 corporate earnings
outlook is not bright. In the big picture, there is no catalyst to support the market at the moment. Hence, we now recommend that our investors keep cash and wait for the market to decrease following our call for investors to lock in short-term profit at 1,600 points. Also, hold fundamental stocks that have recurring income,defensive business, and high dividend yield in the main portfolio.
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23
January
2020
Daily Focus : 23 January 2020,Maintain Recurring, Defensive and Dividend Play
(views 419)
We expect the SET to move sideways down within 1,565-1580 since the market continues to lack fresh catalysts to provide support. Also, we expect the real sector to report weak earnings results. Looking ahead, investors should keep a close eye on coronavirus outbreaks. It will put pressure on the market as the number of infection climbs. According to the latest data, the number of infections has hit 571 and there have been 17 confirmed deaths. Besides, the Lunar New Year is coming and people are traveling in huge numbers. In this regard, China has restricted travel to and from Wuhan. If the outbreak spreads, it will serve as a near-term risk for the economy. Given that, we maintain our call for investors to hold fundamental stocks that have recurring income, defensive business, and high dividend yield. If investors have locked in short-term profit, keep the cash and wait for the index to decrease.
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22
January
2020
Daily Focus : 22 January 2020,Maintain Recurring, Defensive and Dividend Play
(views 433)
We expect the SET to move sideways down within 1,565-1580 as we do not expect 4Q19 corporate earnings to be very bright. Also, coronavirus outbreaks put pressure on the market. It starts to spread and is found in several more countries. According to the latest information, the U.S. has confirmed its first infection. Looking ahead, investors should pay attention to the severity of the outbreaks after the Chinese New Year because it will serve as a risk that will affect economic growth in the near term. In this regard, we maintain our call for investors to hold fundamental stocks that have recurring income, defensive business, and high dividend yield. If investors had locked in short-term profit as we earlier recommended, keep the cash and wait for the index to decrease.
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21
January
2020
Daily Focus : 21 January 2020,Maintain Recurring and Dividend Play
(views 417)
We expect the SET to move sideways to sideways down within 1,583-1595, capped at this time by the 4Q19 earnings season. To elaborate, we expect it to be dull, in line with the GDP, which continued to grow slow. Note we expect the GDP to increase by 2.5% Y-Y. According to the latest data, most of the banks results were lower than expected and this could be the case with the real sector too. Today, we recommend our investors keep a close eye on the Constitutional Courts ruling on the request to dissolve the Future Forward Party on sedition. Given that, we maintain our call for investors to hold fundamental stocks that have recurring business and high dividend yield. If investors have taken short-term profit as we earlier recommend, keep the cash and wait for the market to decrease.
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20
January
2020
Daily Focus : 20 January 2020,Profit Taking at around 1,600-1620 //Maintain Recurring and Dividend Play
(views 424)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,595-1605. To elaborate, we still expect the markets upside to limit to 1,610-1,620 due mainly to 4Q19 earnings results, which we do not expect to be very bright, in line with the low GDP growth outlook. Specifically, we expect it to increase by 2.5% Y-Y. Since SCB reported a disappointing profit, banks could weigh on the market. In this regard, we view an indexs gain as an opportunity to take short-term profit. In particular, sell the stocks that jumped earlier. For mid- to long-term investment, hold fundamental stocks that have recurring income and high dividend yield.
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17
January
2020
Daily Focus : 17 January 2020,Profit Taking at around 1,600-1620 //Maintain Recurring and Dividend Play
(views 462)
We expect the SET to continue to move in the positive territory thanks to easing sentiment. Also, the index may rise to trade above the 1,600 level.This morning, eye at Chinas 4Q19 GDP. In this regard, the market expects it to increase by 6%. However, there is no additional domestic catalyst, besides the governments budget disbursement. Also, the 4Q19 earnings season has started and we do not expect it to be bright. The lackluster outlook is in line with the countrys GDP, which looks set to grow at a modest rate. Specifically, the market expects it to increase by 2.5% Y-Y. Given that, we continue to believe that the indexs gain will limit to 1,620. Also, we continue to recommend that investors sell to lock in short-term profit when the market increases.
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16
January
2020
Daily Focus : 16 January 2020,Profit Taking at around 1,600//Maintain Recurring and Dividend Play
(views 368)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways within 1,575-1590. In particular, we expect the index to see modest benefits from the signing of phase one of the U.S. - China trade pacts last night. However, the market has factored in most of the catalyst. Hence, there could be a sell-on-fact in the near term. Also, the 4Q19 earnings season has started. In general, we expect Thai corporate earnings to be lackluster, in line with its GDP, which continued to record a low growth rate. In this regard, we expect the Thai economy to grow by 2.5% Y-Y in 4Q19. Since we expect the SETs gain to limit to the 1,600 level, we maintain our call for investors to take short-term profit when the market increases.
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15
January
2020
Daily Focus : 15 January 2020,Short-Term Profit-Taking at 1,600+- //Maintain Recurring and Dividend Play
(views 495)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways within 1,580-1595 as the market eye on the signing of phase one of the U.S. - China trade pacts, which it expects to take place today. In this regard, there could be a sell-on-fact in the near term. Also, the 4Q19 earnings season has started. In ืgeneral, we view it is not very bright. Hence, we expect the markets gain to limit at 1,600-1,610 at this time. Finally, we maintain our call for investors to focus on stocks that have recurring income, consistent performance, and specific catalysts. They include the healthcare sector and high-yield stocks.
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14
January
2020
Daily Focus : 14 January 2020,Short-Term Profit-Taking at 1,600+- //Maintain Recurring and Dividend Play
(views 368)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways up.Specifically, we expect it to move within 1,580-1595 due to optimism over the signing of phase one of the U.S. - China trade pacts, which is due to take place tomorrow. Although we expect the domestic investment-related play to continue to see support from positive sentiment, we expect the markets gain to limit to
1,600-1,610 points. Since the 4Q19 earnings season is about to start and we do not expect it to be bright, the market could face near-term profit-taking.
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13
January
2020
Daily Focus : 13 January 2020,Maintain Recurring and Dividend Play
(views 370)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,575-1590. This week, keep a close watch on the signing of phase one of the U.S. - China trade pacts after China plans a visit to the U.S. during January 13-15. In Thailand, the sentiment improves after the parliament has passed the second and the third readings of the draft 2020 budget bill. As a result, we expect the domestic play,particularly those investment- and consumption-related stocks, to see supports and outperform the market.
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10
January
2020
Daily Focus : 10 January 2020,Bet on Global Play//Hold Recurring and Dividend Play
(views 400)
We expect the SET to continue to rally. Specifically, we expect the index to trade within 1,570-1585 thanks to market sentiment, which improves after the cooling U.S.-Iran tension and the U.S. House of Representatives resolution to limit President Trumps war power on Iran. Besides, the market sees support from the signing of phase one of the U.S. - China trade
pacts, which will take place next week. In Thailand, we expect the parliament to pass the second and the third readings of the draft 2020 budget bill this week. Since the picture is positive, we recommend that our investors continue to hold fundamental stocks.
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09
January
2020
Daily Focus : 9 January 2020,Bet on petrochemical shares//Hold defensive and dividend play
(views 396)
We expect the SET to bounce back, in line with the equity markets around the globe. Specifically, we expect the index to move within 1,570-1585 thanks to market sentiment, which is more relaxed after President Trumps relatively soft stance. To elaborate, he did not mention about any military action as his counter-attack against Iran. The U.S. will impose economic sanctions and has signaled a negotiation to settle the disputes. As a result, funds flowed out of safe-haven assets, e.g., gold and crude, which suffered a large loss. In this regard, we expect upstream energy shares to see selling, in line with our earlier call for investors to sell them into strength. Meanwhile, the petrochemical sector will benefit. In Thailand, investors should continue to keep an eye on the second and the third readings of the draft 2020 budget bill, which the parliament will pass in the end. We continue to recommend that investors hold stocks that have recurring income and offer a high dividend yield in the main portfolio.
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08
January
2020
Daily Focus : 8 January 2020,Stay in Defensive and Dividend Plays
(views 420)
We expect the SET to decrease to trade within 1,660-1670 due to rising tension after Iran launched missiles on U.S. airbase in Iraq. As a result, funds will continue to flow out of risk assets to a safehaven,e.g., gold and crude. In Thailand, keep an eye on the parliamentary session for the second and the third readings of the draft 2020 budget bill today. In this regard, we expect upstream energy stocks to continue to move in the positive territory thanks to the increased oil price, while defensive and dividend play, e.g., ICT, healthcare, power generation, and mass transit will outperform the market and will serve as a place to park cash.
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07
January
2020
Daily Focus : 7 January 2020,Park cash in defensive and dividend plays//Sell oil into strength
(views 425)
We expect the SET to move sideways within a wide range of 1,560-1,580 amid volatile trading. In the near term, there might be a technical rebound, in line with regional equity markets after its substantial decrease earlier. However, we expect the U.S. - Iran tension to continue to put a cap on risk assets. In Thailand, we still need to monitor one crucial
factor this week, i.e., the second and the third readings of the 2020 draft budget bill. Given that, we recommend our investors to sell energy stocks to lock in short-term profit after they have sharply increased and crude upside starts to limit. Also, investors should continue to park cash in defensive and dividend plays.
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06
January
2020
Daily Focus : 6 January 2020, Defensive and Dividend Play
(views 426)
We expect the SET to move down to trade within 1,580-1,590 after the index continuously increased in the past two weeks to where it starts to imply a limited upside. Also, market sentiment is negative due to concerns over the U.S. - Iran tension. It made investors sell risk assets and turn toward safe-haven ones. Nonetheless, since the tension also results in a sharp increase in crude prices, the energy sector will somewhat provide support for the SET. In this regard, we expect defensive and dividend plays to outperform the market at this time.
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03
January
2020
Daily Focus : 3 January 2020, Selective and Dividend Play
(views 415)
We expect the SET to move in positive territory. Moreover, the index may break the 1,600 level thanks to bullish market sentiment after the optimism over the signing of phase one of the U.S. - China trade pacts, which will take place in the middle of this month. Given that, the global play will continue to outperform and lead the market in the near term. However, we expect the gain to start to limit at 1,610-1,620 at this time because there are crucial factors to monitor throughout this month. They include Brexit and domestic politics.
Given that, we continue to recommend our investors to be selective. Invest in stocks that have specific catalysts and suffer large losses in the past 1-2 months,
particularly ones with a high dividend yield.
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02
January
2020
Daily Focus : 2 January 2020,Selective and Dividend Play
(views 428)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways to sideways up within 1,570-1,590. Support will come from the signing of phase one of the U.S. - China trade pacts, which the market expects to take place on January 15. Also, the PBOC has trimmed its RRR by 0.5%. However, several crucial factors still need monitoring. They comprise Brexit and domestic politics. Given that, we continue to recommend our investors to be selective. Invest in stocks that have specific catalysts and suffer sharp losses in the past 1-2 months. In particular, pick ones with a high dividend yield.
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30
December
2019
Daily Focus : 30 December 2019,Selective and Dividend Play
(views 485)
We expect trading volume to be thin because it is close to the New Year holiday. However, the SET will move sideways up within 1,575-1,585 thanks to window dressing. After the New Year, investors should monitor the U.S. - China trade negotiation and the PMI of key global economies, which we expect to improve. In this regard, we recommend our investors hold hospitals, food, commerce, and high-dividend shares into 2020.
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27
December
2019
Daily Focus : 27 December 2019,Selective and Dividend Plays
(views 411)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways to sideways up within 1,570-1,585 amid thin trading volume, which will continue as the market is close to its New Year holiday. Also, several crucial domestic and international factors need monitoring in January 2020. Nonetheless, year-end LTF/RMF and window dressing will continue to provide support. In this regard, we recommend our investors place selective bets. Pick ones that have specific catalysts, suffer a large loss in the past 1-2 months, and offer a high dividend yield.
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26
December
2019
Daily Focus : 26 December 2019,Selective and Dividend Play
(views 358)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways within 1,565-1,580 amid thin trading volume, which will continue during Christmas and the New Year since most international markets are closed. Also, there is no new factor to affect the market at this time. However, LTF/RMF and window dressing could provide slight support for the market. In this regard, we recommend our investors to be selective. Pick ones that have specific catalysts, suffer a large loss in the past 1-2 months, and offer a high dividend yield.
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25
December
2019
Daily Focus : 25 December 2019,Selective and Dividend Play
(views 386)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways within 1,560-1,575 amid thin trading volume. Since it is the Christmas holiday, most international markets are closed. Moreover, the market continues to lack support from a fresh catalyst. Domestically, we expect the weak economic outlook to continue to put pressure on the market and to put a cap on the
SETs gain. This leaves only support from year-end LTF/RMF and window dressing. Given that, we recommend our investors to be selective. Pick ones that have specific catalysts, suffer a large loss in the past 1-2 months, and offer a high dividend yield.
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24
December
2019
Daily Focus : 24 December 2019,Selective and Dividend Play
(views 401)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways within 1,565-1,580. In general, market sentiment remains calm. On the U.S. - China trade negotiation, China says it will cut the tariffs on over 850 products on January 1. However, the domestic economy expanded at a low rate. It continues to put pressure on the Thai equity market, making it weaker than its regional
peers. Also, investors should continue to monitor politics. In particular, pay attention to the 2020 budget next month and the petition to dissolve the Future Forward Party. Nonetheless, we expect continued support from LTF/RMF and year-end window dressing. In this regard, we maintain our call for investors to buy stocks that have specific catalysts, suffer large losses lately, and offer a high dividend yield.
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23
December
2019
Daily Focus : 23 December 2019,Selective and Dividend Play
(views 383)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways within 1,565-1,580. In general, the market sentiment remains calm over the U.S. - China trade negotiation thanks to the talks between President Trump and President Xi. In this regard, the market expects them to fix a date to sign phase one of their trade pacts shortly. In Thailand, keep an eye on
November exports, which is due out today. On this matter, the market expects it to decrease by 4% Y-Y. Also, we recommend our investors continue to monitor Thai politics. However, we expect continued support from LTF/RMF. Given that, we maintain our call for our investors to invest in stocks that have specific catalysts and suffer a large loss lately. In particular, look for stocks with a high dividend yield.
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20
December
2019
Daily Focus : 20 December 2019,Dividend and Selective Play
(views 390)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,565-1,580.In particular, we expect the indexs gain to begin to limit after it rallied for two days in a row by about 25 points. In general, there is no new factor that has an impact on the market. Although the U.S. House of Representatives voted to impeach President Trump, we expect him to escape it at the Senate
level. Meanwhile, the market also lacks any fresh catalyst. To elaborate, the market still waits for the signing of phase one of the U.S. - China trade pacts in January and negotiation on its phase two. In Thailand, the market will continue to keep an eye on politics. Nonetheless, we expect continued support from LTF/RMF. In this regard, we continue to recommend our
investors invest in stocks with specific catalysts and those that tumbled lately. In particular, focus on ones with a high dividend yield.
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19
December
2019
Daily Focus : 19 December 2019,Dividend and Selective Play
(views 398)
We expect the SET to continue to rebound to test 1,570-1,575 thanks to international funds, which starts to flow into the country. In particular, foreign investors registered a large net buy and long positions both in the equity market and on the Index Futures. Also, we expect local institutions to continue to buy equity thanks to funds from LTF/RMF, which are now in its final phase. However, we do not expect the SETs increase to be large. Also, it will be brief because the Thai economic fundamental remains weak. Furthermore, domestic politics has more risks. In this regard,we maintain our call for investors to invest in stocks with specific catalysts and recording a large loss lately. In particular, focus on ones with a high dividend yield.
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18
December
2019
Daily Focus : 18 December 2019,Dividend and Selective Play
(views 406)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways. In this regard, there is a crucial support at 1,545. The market continues to lack any fresh catalyst after the U.S. and China have reached phase one of their trade pacts. In Thailand, we expect politics to serve as a crucial factor and market indicator at this time. To elaborate, political risks increase after there were signs of protests and party dissolution. Given that, we expect defensive stocks with a high dividend yield to outperform the market. Also, the energy sector will be stronger than peers thanks to benefits from the increased crude price.
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17
December
2019
Daily Focus : 17 December 2019,Dividend and Defensive Play
(views 373)
We expect the SET to move sideways. In this regard, the indexs crucial support is at 1,545-1,550. Although market sentiment eases after the U.S. and China have successfully reached a deal, the concern over domestic politics puts pressure on the Thai equity market to underperform its peers. To elaborate, there was a flash mob and there are signals of street protests next month. Also, the Future Forward Party prepares to file a complaint against the Election Commission on corruption and misconduct charges. Since we expect foreign investors to continue to sell Thai equity, we recommend our investors park cash in defensive stocks with a high dividend yield because we believe they will outperform the market.
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16
December
2019
Daily Focus : 16 December 2019,Global Play//Hold & Let Profit run
(views 405)
We expect the SET to move sideways to sideways up within 1,565-1,580 after the U.S. and China have reached phase one of their trade pacts.However, we do not expect the gain to be large because the development of the talks seems to be less than what the market has anticipated. In Thailand,investors should pay more attention to politics after the flash mob and the prospect of a street protest next month. In general, we view that the market is recovering after the SET tested its crucial support near 1,550. Also, we expect the global play to turn to outperform the market.
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13
December
2019
Daily Focus : 13 December 2019,Risk-On//Global Play
(views 379)
We expect the SET to rise to test 1,580-1,585. The market sentiment is bright after there are news reports that the U.S. and China have reached in principle phase one of their trade pacts. To elaborate,the U.S. will roll back 50% of the tariffs that it has imposed and cancel the planned tariffs set to become effective on December 15 in exchange for an increase in Chinas imports of U.S. agricultural products. In the U.K., exit polls suggest the Conservative Party will win a majority in the general election. Whats more, their number of seats will increase, which is positive for Brexit in the future. In general, the picture puts investors back in risk-on mode. In this regard, we expect global and commodity plays to perform well
today.
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12
December
2019
Daily Focus : 12 December 2019,Selective and Dividend Plays, Main Support at 1,550 (+/-)
(views 448)
We expect the SET to move sideways to sideways up after the index tested its support of 1,545-1,550. In particular, the Thai main index will benefit from the Feds signal that it will keep its policy rate unchanged until next year. Moreover, S&P upgraded Thailands credit rating to positive from stable. However, several factors need monitoring since they will determine the SETs future outlook. They include the U.S. - China trade talks (whether the two countries will reach a deal and delay the new planned tariffs on December 15 or
not). In the U.K., we expect the Conservative Party to win the highest seats of 43% in todays general election. We believe that the SETs weakness will begin to limit because the index sharply lags behind its regional and global peers. Also, its valuation is undemanding. On this theme, we expect defensive and dividend plays to outperform the market at this time.
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11
December
2019
Daily Focus : 11 December 2019,Selective and Dividend Play, Main Support at 1,550 (+/-)
(views 413)
We expect the SET to move sideways with a strong support at 1,550 points +/-. The market this week is expected to fluctuate ahead of a closely watched date of December 15, when additional tariffs on Chinese imports start to impose. In addition, investors await the Fed’s and ECB’s final interest rate decision for the year which we believe they will keep the rates unchanged. Despite no short-term positive catalysts, we view that the downside of Thai stock market is limited as it is laggard the regional and global markets and its valuation is relatively cheap. We believe defensive and dividend plays will outperform the market at this time.
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09
December
2019
Daily Focus : 9 December 2019,Selective and Dividend Play, Main Support at 1,550 (+/-)
(views 374)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,550-1,570 amid thinner trading volume as the holiday mood lingers. Meanwhile, the market will continue to fluctuate ahead of a closely watched date of December 15, when additional tariffs on Chinese imports start to impose. In addition, the US’s jobs data topped analyst expectations whereas China’s exports declined in November for the fourth consecutive month. In this regard, we view that the downside of Thai stock market is limited as it is laggard the regional and global markets. We expect the SET to begin to see buyback at its crucial support of 1,550 (+/-). Also, defensive and dividend plays will outperform the market at this time.
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06
December
2019
Daily Focus : 6 December 2019,Selective and Dividend Play, Main Support at 1,550 (+/-)
(views 425)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,560-1,570 amid thinner trading volume as the holiday mood lingers. Meanwhile, the market will continue to monitor the U.S. - China trade negotiation and the signing of phase one of their trade pact after each day came with both positive and negative news. At the OPEC+ meeting, there is a possibility that the oil cut will increase to 1.7mn barrels per day, which is more than the market forecast. In this regard, we view that the market will be volatile in the next week. However, we believe that the SETs fall will start to limit because the market lags behind both its regional and global peers. In particular, we expect the SET to begin to see buyback at its crucial support
of 1,550 (+/-). Also, defensive and dividend plays will outperform the market at this time.
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04
December
2019
Daily Focus : 4 December 2019,Selective and Dividend Play, Next Support at 1,550 (+/-)
(views 422)
We expect the SET to decrease to 1,550-1,560, in line with equity markets around the globe, which tumbled after President Trump said that it could take until the Presidential Election next year before the U.S. and China strike a deal. That statement disappointed the market and triggered sell-off in risk assets to take comfort in safe-haven instead. Given that, we expect the market movement to be volatile in the next 1-2 weeks. Nonetheless, we believe the SETs fall will start to limit because the market lags behind its regional and global peers. In particular, we expect buyback to begin at the SETs crucial support of 1,550 (+/-). Also, high-dividend stocks will outperform the market at this time.
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03
December
2019
Daily Focus : 3 December 2019,Selective and Dividend Play, Next Support at 1,550 (+/-)
(views 390)
We expect the SET to continue to decrease to trade within 1,550-1,560 due to negative market sentiment after U.S. manufacturing ISM in November came in lower than expected. Also, the market is concerned about the U.S. - China trade talks because it is now close to December 15, the day that the U.S. plans for a new round of tariff hikes on Chinese goods. Besides China, President Trump declared a new round of trade wars. To elaborate, the U.S. will restore tariffs on steel and aluminum produced in Brazil and Argentina. Whats
more, Washington will impose tariffs on French products, e.g. Champagne,cheese, and handbags. Since foreign investors short positions increase, we view that the market will be volatile in the next 1-2 weeks. However, we expect buyback to begin at the SETs support of 1,550 (+/-). In this regard, we expect stocks with a high dividend to outperform the market at this time.
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02
December
2019
Daily Focus : 2 December 2019,Selective Buy, Accumulate on Dip and Hold
(views 373)
We expect the SET to see a technical rebound after the index began to see buyback at its crucial support of 1,580. However, we expect the gain to limit to about 1,600 (+/-). Although November PMI came in higher than expected, the main factor remains whether the signing of phase one of the U.S. -China trade pact will take place this month or not. According to the latest information, Beijing reiterates Washingtons tariff rollback as one of its conditions in the agreement. Although trading remains broadly volatile, we recommend our investors hold fundamental stocks after the accumulation within 1,580-1,600 because we expect the Thai economy to slowly recover from 4Q19 to 2020.
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29
November
2019
Daily Focus : 29 November 2019,Selective Buy, Accumulate on Dip and Hold
(views 416)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways to build its base at about 1,600 (+/-) as the market continues to monitor the U.S. - China trade negotiation whether the signing of phase one of their trade pact will take place in time for December 15, when the U.S. plans to further raise its tariffs or not. This is after President Trump has passed Hong Kong Democracy bill, which triggered more tension with his Chinese counterpart. Nonetheless, we continue to view that a retreat to 1,580-1,600 will serve as an opportunity to accumulate
fundamental names for mid- to long-term investments. In particular, we expect the Thai economy to slowly recover from 4Q19 to 2020 thanks to government stimulus, including both fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate investment.
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28
November
2019
Daily Focus : 28 November 2019,Selective Buy, Accumulate on Dip and Hold
(views 393)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,600-1615 as the market continues to monitor the development of the U.S. - China trade talks after there was news that the deal was in its final throes. Nonetheless, there might be some pressure after President Trump signed Hong Kong democracy legislation, a matter that China sees an intervention and will affect their international relations. Having said that, we continue to view the SETs retreat to 1,580-1,600 as an opportunity to accumulate fundamental stocks. In particular, we remain optimistic about the Thai economic outlook that it will slowly recover from 4Q19 to 2020 thanks to government stimulus, including both fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate investment.
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27
November
2019
Daily Focus : 27 November 2019,Selective Buy // Let profit run
(views 444)
We expect the SET to move sideways to sideways up in a range of 1,605-1,620 points amid hopes that the US and China are close to a trade deal. Flows are expected to continue move to risk assets. In Thailand,the equity market should be boosted by economic stimulus measures approved by Cabinet yesterday. We recommend investors to let profit run after accumulating fundamental stocks at 1,580-1,600 as we believe that the Thai economy has passed its trough and will gradually recover.
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26
November
2019
Daily Focus : 26 November 2019,Selective Buy // Let profit run
(views 446)
We expect the SET to move sideways up in a range of 1,610-1,630 points amid rising expectations that a phase one trade deal could happen before the end of year. Flows are expected to continue pour in risk assets. In Thailand, Finance Minister will propose additional stimulus measures at Cabinet’s meeting today to boost domestic economy. We recommend investors to let profit run after accumulating fundamental stocks at 1,580-1,600 as we believe that the Thai economy has passed its trough and will gradually recover.
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25
November
2019
Daily Focus : 25 November 2019,Selective Buy, Accumulate at around 1,580-1,600
(views 429)
We expect the SET to move sideways up in a range of 1,590-1,610 points on hope for trade deal from both sides. In Thailand, LTFs replacement is scheduled to discuss today. MSCI index rebalance which will be effective at tomorrow’s close price will impact only stocks being added or deleted from the index. We still see the market retreats as an opportunity to
accumulate fundamental stocks for mid- to long-term investments as we believe that the Thai economy has passed its trough and will gradually recover.
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22
November
2019
Daily Focus : 22 November 2019,Selective Buy, Accumulate at around 1,580-1,600
(views 559)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways to build up its base within 1,580-1,600 as the market waits for clarity over the U.S. - China trade talks. According to the latest development, there were news reports that Chinese delegates had invited their U.S. counterparts to a meeting in Beijing. However, they have not fixed exact dates. In Thailand, although exports in October missed estimates, we expect the state to introduce additional measures to stimulate consumption and tourism. In this regard, we view that the Thai economy has passed its trough and will gradually recover. Hence, market retreats will serve as an opportunity to accumulate fundamental stocks for mid- to long-term investments.
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21
November
2019
Daily Focus : 21 November 2019,Selective Buy, Accumulate at around 1,580-1,600
(views 431)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways to build up its base within 1,580-1,600 as the market remains under pressure from the uncertainty looming the signing of phase one of the U.S. - China trade pact. In particular, it might delay to next year from in December. In Thailand, investors must keep an eye on the EC if it will file a criminal charge and move to dissolve the Future Forward Party or not since this might affect political stability. However, we expect the Thai economy to gradually recover in 4Q19 and expect the government to continue to introduce stimulus measures. Hence, we continue to view market retreats as an opportunity to accumulate fundamental stocks for mid- to long-term investments.
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20
November
2019
Daily Focus : 20 November 2019,Selective Buy, Accumulate at around 1,580-1,600
(views 401)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways down to build up its base at about 1,600 (+/-) as the U.S. - China trade talks remain uncertain. As a result, commodity prices, particularly crude tumbled.In this regard, we expect it to put pressure on the energy sector today. In Thailand, we will continue to keep an eye on politics as the Constitutional Court is due to deliver its ruling on Mr. Thanathorns media shareholding case. Given that, we continue to view market retreats as an opportunity to accumulate fundamental stocks for mid- to long-term investments because we believe the Thai economy has bottomed in 2Q19-3Q19 and will slowly recover from 4Q19 to 2020 thanks to stimulus from both monetary and fiscal
policies.
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19
November
2019
Daily Focus : 19 November 2019,Selective Buy, Accumulate at around 1,580-1,600
(views 399)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways to build up its base at about 1,600. In this regard, we expect the index to move within 1,600-1,615 today as the market continues to lack fresh catalysts to provide support. Also, it continues to wait for clarity from the U.S. - China trade talks. According to the latest information, China remains concerned over President Trumps statement that he does not agree with tariffs rollback, a crucial condition proposed by Beijing. In Thailand, keep an eye on a political factor tomorrow when the Constitutional Court will rule Mr.Thanathorns media shareholding case. On the economic front, we view that the Thai economy has seen its worst in 2Q19-3Q19 and will slowly recover
from 4Q19 to 2020 thanks to stimulus from both monetary and fiscal policies.Given that, we view market retreats as an opportunity to accumulate fundamental stocks for mid- to long-term investments.
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18
November
2019
Daily Focus : 18 November 2019,Selective Buy, Accumulate at around 1,580-1,600
(views 430)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1590-1,610.Although there are catalysts from the White Houses news that the U.S. -China trade talks progress and they are about to strike a deal shortly, what matters now is Thailands 3Q19 GDP that is due out this morning. In this regard, the market expects it to increase by 2.7% Y-Y. If it comes in lower than expected, there is a chance the SET will continue to retreat. However, we believe the Thai economy has seen its worst in 2Q19-3Q19 and will gradually recover in 4Q19 to 2020 thanks to stimulus from both monetary and fiscal policies. Given that, we view market retreats as an opportunity to accumulate fundamental stocks for mid- to long-term investments.
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15
November
2019
Daily Focus : 15 November 2019,Selective Buy, Accumulate at around 1,600 (+/-)
(views 416)
We expect the SET to move sideways down within 1,600 - 1,620 today. In this regard, the indexs crucial support remains at 1,580-1,600 for this round. The market continues to lack fresh catalysts to provide support. Also, we have to keep an eye on the development of the U.S. -
China trade talks whether they will sign phase one of their trade pact next month before a tariff hike on December 15 or not. In Thailand, 3Q19
earnings results were mostly lower than expected. Hence, the SETs gain will limit. However, we maintain our view that the Thai economy has seen its worst and will gradually recover from 4Q19 to 2020 thanks to supports from both monetary and fiscal policies. Given all that, we continue to recommend our investors to be selective. When the market decreases, it will serve as an opportunity to accumulate fundamental stocks for mid- to long-term investments.
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14
November
2019
Daily Focus : 14 November 2019,Selective Buy, Accumulate at around 1,600 (+/-)
(views 496)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,610-1,620.There is crucial support at 1,580-1,600 as the market continues to lack a fresh catalyst to provide support. In this regard, keep an eye on the signing of phase one of the U.S. - China trade pact, which remains uncertain after there were news reports that both parties were unable to agree on several details.Meanwhile, the Fed Chair said that the central bank would maintain its policy rate at the current level if the U.S. economy continues to expand. In Thailand, 3Q19 results are mostly in line or below estimates. Hence, it will not help support the index much at this time. However, we believe the worst is over and it will gradually recover from 4Q19 to 2020. Hence, we maintain our call for investors to make selective bets. In this regard, we view that when the market decreases to
the aforementioned support, it will serve as an opportunity to accumulate fundamental stocks for mid- to long-term investments.
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13
November
2019
Daily Focus : 13 November 2019,Selective Buy, Accumulate at around 1,600 (+/-)
(views 398)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways within 1,620-1,630 as President Trump continued to attack China. Specifically, he said Beijing cheated America on trade during his speech at the Economic Club of New York. However, he also said that the two countries were close to reaching a deal on phase one of their trade pacts. Tonight, keep an eye on the Fed Chairs testimony before Congress. In Thailand, 3Q19 earnings results were mostly below estimates or in line. However, we believe the worst is over and expect a slow recovery in 4Q19 to 2020. Hence, we continue to recommend that our investors place selective bets and accumulate fundamental stocks when the market decreases.
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12
November
2019
Daily Focus : 12 November 2019,Selective Buy, Accumulate on Dip
(views 382)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,590-1,610 as we continue to monitor progress on the signing of phase one of the U.S. - China trade pact. In the U.S., the employment data in October will be out tonight. In Thailand, our main focus remains the real sectors 3Q19 earnings results. Also, the MPC will meet next week. In this regard, we expect one
policy rate cut from the last two meetings of this year. Since there is yet a fresh catalyst to support the market, we continue to recommend our investors do Selective Buy. In particular, focus on stocks with a healthy profit outlook and specific catalysts.
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11
November
2019
Daily Focus : 11 November 2019,Selective and Earnings Plays
(views 420)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,630-1,642 after the index increased sharply last week. In particular, we expect the market to keep an eye on clarity over the U.S. - China trade talks because uncertainty increases after President Trump said that he did not agree upon a full tariff rollback to strike phase one of the deal. Meanwhile, the market still needs to monitor President Trumps speech to the Economic Club of New York and the Feds testimony before Congress whether they offer progress on trade talks and monetary policy. In Thailand, it is nearly the end of 3Q19 earnings results. Given that, we continue to recommend our investors to be selective.
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08
November
2019
Daily Focus : 8 November 2019,Global and Earnings Plays
(views 423)
We expect the SET to continue to move in positive territory. Also, there is a chance the index will rise to test the 1,650 level thanks to market sentiment, which is positive. To elaborate, the sentiment benefits from the possibility that the U.S. and China will remove import tariffs on each other in the phase one of their trade pact that the market expects signing to take place in December. As a result, funds flowed out of safe-haven to risk assets. In Thailand,the real sector will continue to report more 3Q19 results. If they do not come in lower than expected, we expect the market to respond positively to the likelihood that the profit and economy have bottomed and will slowly recover from 4Q19 to 2020 thanks to the governments stimulus packages, both fiscal and monetary. In this regard, we expect the global play to continue to outperform the market.
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07
November
2019
Daily Focus : 7 November 2019,Selective Buy
(views 419)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,615-1,630 as the market continues to monitor development on the signing of phase one of the U.S. – China trade pact. According to the latest information, it might delay to December. Meanwhile, crude started to turn to decrease after it earlier increased for three days in a row. As a result, the energy sector might see short-term profit-taking. In Thailand, the real sector will gradually report their earnings results. If they do not come in sharply lower than expected, we believe the economy and corporate earnings will slowly recover in 4Q19 to 2020 thanks to the government’s stimulus measures, both fiscal and monetary. In this regard, we continue to recommend our investors do Selective BUY and focus on stocks with specific catalysts.
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06
November
2019
Daily Focus : 6 November 2019,Selective Buy, Short-term Speculate Global Play
(views 402)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,620-1,630 as the speculation that the U.S. and China are close to signing phase one of their trade pacts this month continues to support the market. Today, we will keep an eye on an MPC meeting whether there will be a 0.25% rate cut as the market anticipates or not. As the real sector will unveil more 3Q19 earnings results, we will see if they come in close to our forecast. Given all that, we expect big-cap stocks, particularly the global play to continue to outperform the market in the near term.
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05
November
2019
Daily Focus : 5 November 2019,Selective Buy, Short-term Speculate Global Play
(views 412)
We expect the SET to continue to move in the positive territory thanks to market sentiment, which is bright. To elaborate, the index continues to see support from the optimism that the signing of phase one of the U.S. - China trade pact will take place this month. However, the SET might continue to be capped in the near-term by its resistance of 1,630-1,640, where we expect pressure from short-term selling. Besides, the market still needs to keep an eye on the real sectors 3Q19 earnings results in the next two weeks,which we do not believe to be healthy, in general. Also, investors have to wait for MPC meeting results whether there will be a rate cut or not. In this regard, we expect large-cap stocks, particularly the global play to continue to outperform the market for now.
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04
November
2019
Daily Focus : 4 November 2019,Selective Buy, Bet on Global Play in the near term
(views 373)
We expect the SET to see a technical rebound to test the 1,600-1,610 level once again after market sentiment is more positive. Specifically, the chance that the signing of phase one of the U.S. - China trade pact will take place this month increases. Also, crude surges. Nonetheless, the 3Q19 earnings season remains a crucial factor that has an impact on the SET.
Since more results from the real sector will come in, and the MPC will meet this Wednesday (when we expect a rate cut), there is a chance that the global play will outperform the market thanks to near-term speculation. Finally, we continue to recommend our investors do selective buy. In particular, focus on stocks with a healthy profit outlook and specific catalysts.
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01
November
2019
Daily Focus : 1 November 2019,Selective Buy, Accumulate on Dip
(views 380)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,590-1,610 as we continue to monitor progress on the signing of phase one of the U.S. China trade pact. In the U.S., the employment data in October will be out tonight. In Thailand, our main focus remains the real sectors 3Q19 earnings results. Also, the MPC will meet next week. In this regard, we expect one policy rate cut from the last two meetings of this year. Since there is yet a fresh catalyst to support the market, we continue to recommend our investors do Selective Buy. In particular, focus on stocks with a healthy profit outlook and specific catalysts.
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31
October
2019
Daily Focus : 31 October 2019,Selective Buy, Accumulate on Dip
(views 381)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,590-1,610 after the index can rise to hover above the 1,600 level. Moreover, market sentiment is fairly relaxed after the Fed trimmed its policy rate by another 0.25%, as expected. Also, there is a chance the MPC will also revise down its benchmark rate at a meeting next week, which will be positive for risk assets and will help stimulate the economy. Looking ahead, we will continue to monitor the signing of phase one of the U.S. - China trade pact to see when it is going to happen. In Thailand, the earnings results of the real sector that will be released will not be very bright, in general. Given that, we continue to recommend our investors do Selective Buy. In particular, focus on stocks with a healthy profit outlook and specific catalysts.
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30
October
2019
Daily Focus : 30 October 2019,Selective Buy, Focus on defensive and dividend plays
(views 352)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,580-1,600 after the index failed to hover above the 1,600 level yesterday. In particular, we expect the market to wait for Fed meeting results tonight when the FOMC isexpected to trim its policy rate by 0.25%. Also, the market will monitor development from the U.S. - China trade pact and Brexit. According to the latest information, the U.K.s House of Commons has voted to hold a general election on December 12. However, since the outlook for listed companies earnings results and the economy in 3Q19 are not very bright, we continue to recommend our investors to do Selective Buy. Focus on stocks with specific catalysts as well as defensive and dividend plays because we expect them to outperform the market.
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29
October
2019
Daily Focus : 29 October 2019,Bet on Rebound, Selective Buy
(views 391)
We expect the SET to continue to see a technical rebound in the near term after the index performed quite well yesterday. In particular, there is a chance the Thai main index will rise to trade above 1,600 once again. Market sentiment is fairly positive thanks to optimism over the signing of phase one of the U.S. - China trade pact. Moreover, the EU has postponed the Brexit deadline to January 31, 2020. Finally, if the Fed trims its policy rate by another 0.25% this week as expected, we expect it to help support international funds to flow into risk assets and emerging markets. However, we reiterate our Selective Buy strategy. Specifically, bet on stocks with specific catalysts and a health 3Q19 profit outlook amid the currently fragile economy.
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25
October
2019
Daily Focus : 25 October 2019,Selective and Earnings Plays
(views 431)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,610-1,630 as the market continues to lack a fresh catalyst to provide support. In this regard, we will continue to keep an eye on the EU if they will extend the Brexit deadline from October 31 or not. Meanwhile, the signing of the U.S. - China trade pact does not progress. In Thailand, we expect the real sectors
earnings results that will start to roll out next week to be lackluster, in general. Since we expect a market rally to be limited at this time, we maintain our Selective Buy call. In particular, focus on stocks with specific catalysts or a healthy 3Q19 profit outlook.
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24
October
2019
Daily Focus : 24 October 2019,Selective and Earnings Plays
(views 420)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,625-1,640.In this regard, we expect the energy sector to provide support for the market after crude surged by 2.7%. Nonetheless, we expect the gain to be narrow since markets wait for clarity over Brexit, which there is a great deal of risk that it will not be in time for the deadline on October 31 and might need to extend. Also, we expect the U.S. - China to sign their trade agreement at an APEC meeting next month. In Thailand, the real sector will start to report their earnings results next week. Since we expect them to be lackluster, we continue to recommend our investors to be selective. Buy stocks with specific catalysts and a healthy 3Q19 profit outlook.
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22
October
2019
Daily Focus : 22 October 2019,Selective and Earnings Plays
(views 479)
We expect the SET to move sideways down because there is no fresh catalyst to provide support. Also, the market continues to wait for development from the U.S. - China trade talks and Brexit whether the House of Commons will approve a deal in time for the deadline on October 31 or not. In Thailand, we do not expect any sector to report exceptionally strong performance. Given that, we continue to recommend our investors to do selective buy. In particular, focus on stocks with specific catalysts and a healthy 3Q19 profit outlook.
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21
October
2019
Daily Focus : 21 October 2019,Selective and Earnings Plays
(views 361)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways within 1,625-1,640 as the market continues to monitor Brexit, which remains largely uncertain after the U.K. parliament voted to delay a Brexit deal approval. As a result, it remains risky if it will be in time for the deadline on October 31 or not. In this regard, we expect the domestic play to outperform the market after the draft 2020 fiscal budget bill passed its first reading. Since no catalyst will make the market rally in the near term, we continue to recommend our investors to selectively buy, particularly those with a healthy 3Q19 profit outlook.
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18
October
2019
Daily Focus : 18 October 2019,Selective and Earnings Plays
(views 468)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1625-1640.Although there is a positive development in terms of Brexit after the U.K. and the EU can strike a deal. It still needs ratification by the U.K. Lower House this weekend. Besides, there is still uncertainty over phase one of the U.S. - China trade pact and the market still has to monitor the 2020 fiscal budget bill debate. Given that, we continue to recommend our investors to selectively buy. In particular, focus on stocks with a healthy 3Q19 profit outlook.
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17
October
2019
Daily Focus : 17 October 2019,Selective and Earnings Plays
(views 414)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,625-1,640 after the index increased in the last three days. However, several factors need monitoring. They include the signing of phase one of the U.S. - China trade pact,which remains uncertain after the U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill that supports the protests in Hong Kong. Also, there is a Brexit deal, which is close to its deadline at the end of this month. In Thailand, investors need to keep an eye on fiscal 2020 budget bill debates and banks 3Q19 earnings results. In this regard, we expect the market to move within a limited range. Also, we maintain our call for investors to selectively buy. In particular, focus on stocks with a healthy 3Q19 profit outlook.
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16
October
2019
Daily Focus : 16 October 2019,Selective and Earnings Plays
(views 402)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,620-1,635 as the market is more hopeful that a Brexit deal will take place. However,we believe the gain to be limited because investors will wait for clarity over the signing of the U.S. - China trade agreement whether it will happen or not after Beijing would like another round of talks. As a result, there is still uncertainty in the market. Meanwhile, we are entering the 3Q19 earnings season, starting with banks this week. Since we expect their earnings to be weak, in general, we recommend our investors to selectively buy. In particular, bet on stocks with a strong 3Q19 profit outlook.
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15
October
2019
Daily Focus : 15 October 2019,Bet on Global Plays
(views 1,922)
We expect the SET to continue to move up to test the 1,630-1,640 level thanks to bright market sentiment after the U.S. and China have reached the first phase of their trade pact at the trade talks last week.However, China would like another round of discussion late this month and a wrap-up before it signs the agreement. As a result, there is still a degree of
uncertainty. Having said that, we believe global plays will continue to see speculation which will provide support and lead the market. In Thailand, we begin to enter our 3Q19 earnings season, starting with banks, which are lackluster, in general. In this regard, we continue to recommend our investors to selectively buy.
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11
October
2019
Daily Focus : 11 October 2019,Accumulate at 1,600+-//Stay in Defensive and Defensive Plays
(views 436)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways within 1,600-1,620. To elaborate, we expect the index to recover today after President Trump said that the first day of the U.S. - China trade talks went well and he would meeting Chinese Vice Premier today to further discuss the matter. As a result, the market is more optimistic that they will strike a deal or delay their planned tax hike. Meanwhile, crude increased after OPEC was ready for a rebalance. As a result, there is a chance that global play will recover today. However, we continue to view that the trade talks remain uncertain. Hence, we recommend our investors selectively buy. In particular, accumulate defensive and dividend stocks with solid fundamentals at the SETs crucial support of 1,600.
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10
October
2019
Daily Focus : 10 October 2019,Accumulate at 1,600//Stay in Defensive and Defensive Plays
(views 445)
We expect the SET to continue to move within 1,600-1,620 after the news reports from the U.S. - China trade talks were mixed. However, we will continue to monitor ministerial meetings tonight and tomorrows night whether in the end there will be positive developments as the market has anticipated or not. Also, the uncertainty over Brexit remains. In Thailand, the 3Q19 earnings season will start next week. Since we view that, in general, it is not very bright, we recommend our investors to selectively buy. In particular, take the SETs crucial support of 1,600 as a level to accumulate fundamental stocks, and pick from defensive and dividend plays.
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09
October
2019
Daily Focus : 9 October 2019,Accumulate at 1,600//Stay in Defensive and Defensive Plays
(views 405)
We expect the SET to decrease to test its support of 1,600 once again due to dull market sentiment after the U.S. expanded its blacklist to cover 28 Chinese entities. The move crushes any optimism on the high-level meeting scheduled late this week. In the U.K., Brexit remains an uncertainty. In Thailand, listed companies will begin to report their 3Q19 earnings results next week. Since it is weak in general, the market will lack short-term catalysts. In this regard, we continue to view the SETs crucial support of 1,600 as a level to accumulate. Also, our focus remains to park cash in defensive and dividend plays.
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08
October
2019
Daily Focus : 8 October 2019,Accumulate at 1,600//Focus on Domestic, Defensive, and Defensive Plays
(views 499)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways to build up its base within 1,600-1,620 as investors wait for progress from the U.S. China trade talks on October 10-11. Also, they would like to see the EU stance on the U.K.s Brexit proposal. In Thailand, the 3Q19 earnings season will begin next week. In general, we do not expect it to be very bright. In this regard, we believe there is a chance the government will introduce an additional stimulus package in the remaining period of this year. Also, we continue to view the SETs crucial support of 1,600 as an opportunity to accumulate domestic, defensive, and dividend plays.
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07
October
2019
Daily Focus : 7 October 2019,Bet at 1,600//Stay in Defensive and Defensive Plays
(views 405)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways within 1,600-1,620 as U.S. employment data in September came in mixed. However, they broadly do not trigger concern over the economic slowdown. This week, crucial factors are the U.S. - China trade talks on October 10-11 whether there will be positive development or not, which will determine the future market outlook. In Thailand, we expect a chance that the government will introduce additional stimulus packages in the remaining period of this year. In this regard, we continue to view that the SETs crucial support of 1,600 serves as a level to accumulate defensive and dividend plays.
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04
October
2019
Daily Focus : 4 October 2019,Bet at 1,600//Stay in Defensive and Defensive Plays
(views 394)
We expect the SET to move sideways to build up its base within 1,600-1,620 after the index decreased for three days in a row. Tonight, investors should keep an eye on U.S. employment data in September, which we expect to affect the Feds decision in the remaining of this year whether the central bank will trim its policy rate or not. Next week, we recommend our investors to monitor the U.S. - China trade talks whether they will show positive development or not. In Thailand, there is a chance that the government will introduce additional stimulus packages in the remaining period of this year. As a result, we continue to view that the SETs crucial support of 1,600 serves as a level to accumulate defensive and dividend plays.
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03
October
2019
Daily Focus : 3 October 2019,Bet at 1,600//Stay in Defensive and Defensive Plays
(views 408)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways down.In this regard, there is a chance the index will test its crucial support of 1,590-1,600 as market sentiment remains bearish. To elaborate, the market continued to see heavy selling in risk assets around the globe due to concerns over the global economic slowdown after economic data in several countries came in weak, hitting their 10-year low. Meanwhile, the U.S.prepares to impose tariffs on European aircraft and agricultural products after the WTO Airbus ruling. Besides, the market needs to monitor the U.S. -China trade negotiation next week as well as Brexit. According to the latest information, Boris Johnson has made a new proposal to the EU (but the market expects Brussels to reject the offer). As a result, we continue to recommend our investors park cash in defensive and dividend plays in the main portfolio and bet on rebounds at the SETs support.
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02
October
2019
Daily Focus : 2 October 2019,Accumulate at around 1,600- 1,620//Stay in Defensive and Dividend Plays
(views 509)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways down.In particular, we expect it to decrease to test its crucial support of 1,600-1,620 once again after market sentiment is negative. Pressure will come from anxieties over the global economic slowdown after economic data of key economies around the globe came in weak. Moreover, investors have to keep an eye on important factors, i.e. the U.S. - China trade talk and Brexit.Nonetheless, we continue to view that at the said support, stock valuations are attractive. Specifically, it trades at 2020 PER of about 14.5-14.7x. Finally, we expect support from the buying in LTF and RMF. In this regard, we focus more on defensive and dividend plays in the near term.
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01
October
2019
Daily Focus : 1 October 2019,Accumulate at around 1,600- 1,620//Stay in Domestic Defensive and Defensive Plays
(views 415)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways and sideways down within 1,630-1,645 because we believe the energy sector will continue to weigh after crude tumbled. Meanwhile, investors will continue to keep an eye on the development of the U.S. - China trade talks and Brexit this month. In Thailand, the local economy will remain slow. However, we expect it to slowly pick up from 4Q19 onward and there is a chance for additional stimulus measures from both monetary and fiscal policies late this year. In this regard, we view market retreats to 1,600-1,620 as an attractive level to accumulate fundamental stocks. In this regard, we continue to focus on domestic, defensive and dividend plays.
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30
September
2019
Daily Focus : 30 September 2019,Accumulate at around 1,600- 1,620//Maintain Domestic, Defensive, and Dividend Plays
(views 375)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways to sideways down due to market sentiment which is slightly negative after there was a news report that the U.S. was preparing to limit investment in China and might delist Chinese companies from U.S. equity markets. In the future, several factors need monitoring. They comprise the U.S. - China trade talks on October 10-11 and Brexit which is close to its deadline at the end of next month. In the near term, there might be selling after the index somewhat rebounded last week. Nonetheless, we continue to see that market retreat to its support of 1,600-1,620 will serve as an attractive opportunity to accumulate fundamental stocks after the market valuation starts to be undemanding. Specifically, the SET is trading at 2020 PER of about 14.5-14.7x. In this regard, we continue to focus on domestic, defensive, and dividend plays.
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27
September
2019
Daily Focus : 27 September 2019,Accumulate at around 1,600- 1,620//Maintain Domestic, Defensive, and Dividend Plays
(views 409)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways after there is no fresh catalyst to provide support. To elaborate, the market continues to keep an eye on the U.S. - China trade negotiation, which is scheduled to take place during October 10-11, according to the latest information. Brexit will begin to have more weight, particularly in October. In this regard, we view the SETs fall to trade its support of 1,600-1,620 as an attractive level to accumulate fundamental stocks because valuation-wise the index starts to be inexpensive. Specifically, the SET is trading at 2020 PER of about 14.5-14.7x. Also, there is support from buying in LTF and RMF. In this regard, we continue to focus on domestic, defensive, and dividend plays.
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26
September
2019
Daily Focus : 26 September 2019,Accumulate at around 1,600- 1,620//Maintain Domestic, Defensive, and Dividend Plays
(views 412)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways. In this regard, we continue to see the indexs first support at 1,620. Also, there is a chance the SET will recover in the near term thanks to positive sentiment after President Trump said that the U.S. might strike a trade deal with China sooner than expected. However, we still need to keep an eye on their highlevel meetings next month. In Thailand, the MPC unanimously voted to keep its policy rate on hold at 1.5%, as expected. Although the committee cut its GDP growth forecast, we expect it to slowly recover in the future, particularly in consumption and investment. In this regard, we maintain our call that the SETs support of 1,600-1,620 is attractive and recommend our investors accumulate fundamental stocks after their valuations start to be undemanding. Specifically, they are now trading at 2020 PER of about 14.5-14.7x. Besides, there is support from buying in LTF and RMF. In this regard, we continue to focus on domestic, defensive, and dividend plays.
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25
September
2019
Daily Focus : 25 September 2019,Accumulate at around 1,600- 1,620//Maintain Domestic, Defensive, and Dividend Plays
(views 443)
We expect the SET to move sideways to sideways down.Also, there is a chance the Thai main index will decrease to test its first support of 1,620 as external factors continue to put pressure. They include the U.S. - China trade talks after President Trump attacked China at the U.N. General Assembly. Also, the U.S. House of Representatives began its investigation to remove President Trump from office over alleged abuse of power. Since crude tumbled, as a result of that, we expect it to put pressure on the energy sector. In Thailand, we expect the MPC to maintain its policy rate at 1.50% today. However, we see the SETs support of 1,600-1,620 as an attractive level to accumulate fundamental stocks after the indexs valuation begins to be undemanding. Specifically, it is trading at 2020 PER of about 14.5-14.7x. Whats more, there is support from buying in LTF and RMF. In this
regard, we continue to focus on domestic, defensive, and dividend plays.
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24
September
2019
Daily Focus : 24 September 2019,Accumulate at around 1,600- 1,620//Maintain Domestic, Defensive, and Dividend Plays
(views 405)
We expect the SET to continue to retreat as the market remains concerned over the global economic slowdown brought on by the negative impacts of the trade wars. Also, investors will keep an eye on high-level meetings between the U.S. and China next month. However, we expect buyback to start at the SETs support of 1,600-1,620 after the index quickly
decreased. Besides, the SETs valuation is attractive. Specifically, it is trading at 2020 PER of about 14.7x. Moreover, we expect the buying of LTF and RMF to provide support. In this regard, we view market retreats as a chance to accumulate domestic, defensive, and dividend plays.
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23
September
2019
Daily Focus : 23 September 2019,Selective Buy on Dip//Maintain Domestic, Defensive, and Dividend Plays
(views 426)
We expect the SET to move sideways after the Thai main index has decreased for three straight days. Moreover, the market continues to lack a fresh catalyst. In the future, several crucial factors need monitoring. They include the U.S. - China trade talks, particularly the ones that will take place next month. In Thailand, keep an eye on an MPC meeting
this week. At this meeting, we expect the committee to maintain its policy rate at 1.50% after the cut last month. In this regard, we continue to view a retreat to 1,600-1,620 serves as an opportunity to accumulate domestic, defensive, and dividend plays, particularly those benefiting from the lowinterest- rate environment.
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20
September
2019
Daily Focus : 20 September 2019,Maintain domestic, defensive, and dividend plays//Selective Buy on Dip
(views 492)
We expect the SET to move sideways supported by energy stocks along with rising crude oil prices after heavy sell-off in the past two days. However, the rebound of the SET is expected to be in a tight range. Market eyes on August goods export today (consensus expects -2% Y-Y) amid US-China trade truce concerns. In this regard, we maintain our call for investors to invest in domestic, defensive, and dividend plays, especially those benefiting from the low-interest-rate environment.
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19
September
2019
Daily Focus : 19 September 2019,Continue to invest in domestic, defensive, and dividend plays
(views 434)
We expect the SET to move sideways up within 1,650-1,665, supported by the FOMCs decision to trim its policy rate by 0.25%, as expected. However, we expect the market gain to be modest since the latest Dot Plot implies rather diverse opinions. Meanwhile, we expect the oil sector to continue to put a cap on the market after crude continued to decrease. Besides, the market continues to monitor one crucial factor, i.e.,the U.S. - China trade talks next month. In this regard, we maintain our call for investors to invest in domestic, defensive, and dividend plays, especially those benefiting from the low-interest-rate environment.
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18
September
2019
Daily Focus : 18 September 2019,Continue to hold domestic, defensive, and dividend plays, Take profit on the energy play
(views 395)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,655-1,670. In this regard, we expect the oil sector to see short-term profit-taking because crude tumbled by 5.7% after Saudi Arabia expressed confidence that it would resume most of its oil output within this month. Meanwhile, investors are in the wait & see mode as they wait for Fed meeting results tonight. In this regard, the probability that the meeting will trim its policy rate decreases to just 52% from over 90% last week. If there is no rate cut, we expect to see selling in risk assets.
In Thailand, the Constitutional Court will rule on the Prime Ministers status as a state official today. Given that, we continue to focus on investment in domestic, defensive, and dividend plays.
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17
September
2019
Daily Focus : 17 September 2019,Trade energy play, Continue to hold defensive and dividend plays
(views 400)
We expect the SET to move sideways down within 1,655-1,665. Although we expect upstream energy stocks to continue to provide support after crude continued to increase due to the tension in the Middle East and Houthi rebels continued attacks, the factors are negative for market sentiment and the global economy. This week, investors need to keep an eye on FED meetings (where the market expects a 0.25% rate cut) and the Constitutional Courts ruling on Prime Ministers qualification as a state official. Given that, investors may trade the oil sector in the near term, in line with crude. However, investors should continue to park cash in defensive and dividend plays in their main portfolio to reduce risk.
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16
September
2019
Daily Focus : 16 September 2019,Trade global while continuing to maintain domestic, defensive, and dividend plays
(views 426)
We expect the SET to move in positive territory to test 1,670-1,680 once again. The gain will be led by the energy sector after crude surged after the attacks on Saudi Aramco refineries. Moreover, the U.S. - China trade tensions ease after Beijing dropped its planned tariffs on some U.S. agricultural produces. However, several factors need monitoring this week. They include a Fed meeting (where the market expects a 0.25% rate cut) and a decline in crude after Saudi prepares to resume some of its refineries today. Also, President Trump ordered a release of the U.S. oil stockpiles to maintain supply in the market. In this regard, investors may bet on the global play in the near term to cash in at 1,680-1,700 while maintaining the domestic and dividend plays in the main portfolio.
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13
September
2019
Daily Focus : 13 September 2019,Continue to bet on domestic, defensive, and dividend plays
(views 374)
We expect the SET to move sideways to sideways up thanks to benefits from in-line ECBs policy easing, including a rate cut and QE resumption. However, several factors still need monitoring. They comprise a FED meeting next week, the U.S. - China trade talks, and Brexit in October. Since the global play has rallied earlier to factor in optimism, we expect the SETs increase to limit. Hence, we continue to recommend our investors to hold domestic, defensive, and dividend plays, particularly those that benefit from the declining interest rate outlook in the main portfolio.
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12
September
2019
Daily Focus : 12 September 2019,Trade big-cap and global play
(views 394)
We expect the SET to move in positive territory and cross its resistance of 1,680 thanks to positive market sentiment from the easing trade tension. In his latest move, President Trump delayed the planned tariff on US$250bn worth of Chinese imports that is due on October 1 by another two weeks. In Thailand, domestic politics eases after the Constitutional
Court dismissed the complaint against General Prayuths incomplete oath. Since the broad market looks better than expected, we expect large-cap stocks and the global play that have high exposure on trades and the global economy to rally today. This will serve as an opportunity to speculate. In this regard, the SET has key resistance at 1,700. Today, investors have to monitor one crucial factor, i.e. the ECB meeting.
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11
September
2019
Daily Focus : 11 September 2019,Continue to hold domestic, defensive, and dividend plays
(views 417)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways to test its resistance of 1,680 as the market continues to wait for ECB and FED meetings in the next 1-2 weeks, Brexit development, and the U.S. - China trade talks. As the SETs movement begins to limit, we start to see sector rotation from outperformers, i.e. the ICT and food sectors to laggard stocks. For example, they are those that have undemanding valuations (i.e., banks) or ones that hinge on future economic recovery. In this regard, there is a chance they will move better than average at this time. We continue to recommend that our investors hold domestic play in the main portfolio. If the market increases, we view it as an opportunity to take short-term profit on the global play.
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10
September
2019
Daily Focus : 10 September 2019,Continue to hold domestic, defensive, and dividend plays
(views 367)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways to sideways up to test its near-term resistance of about 1,680. The energy sector might somewhat provide support after crude surged by 2.4% after Saudi Arabia Energy Minister reiterated its output cut. Also, the market concern over no-deal Brexit continued to ease after the U.K. parliament voted against a snap election for the second time. However, several crucial factors still need monitoring. In particular, the ECB will meet late this week and the Fed next week. In this regard, we
continue to recommend our investors hold domestic, defensive, and dividend plays in the main portfolio. If the market increases, it will serve as an opportunity to take short-term profit on the global play.
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09
September
2019
Daily Focus : 9 September 2019,Continue to hold domestic, defensive, and dividend plays
(views 454)
We expect the SET to move sideways to test its nearterm resistance of 1,680 after the Thai main index has increased considerably in the past week or so. In this regard, we expect the market to continue to keep an eye on the development of news. They include the U.S.- China trade negotiation next month and Brexit. Also, we expect investors to give more weight to several central banks meeting. In particular, the ECB will meet this week and the Fed next week when the market expects the FOMC to cut its policy rate by 0.25% after the U.S. non-farm payrolls in August came in lower than expected. Given that, we maintain our call for investors to continue to hold domestic, defensive, and dividend plays in the main portfolio. If the market increases, it will serve as an opportunity to cash in short-term profit on the global play.
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06
September
2019
Daily Focus : 6 September 2019,Continue to hold domestic, defensive, and dividend plays
(views 430)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways to sideways up to test its resistance of 1,680. Market sentiment remains relaxed after the U.S. and China prepare to meet in Washington in October,which gives the market a reason to be optimistic. However, their meetings in the past tell us that a deal will not be easy. Hence, investors should remain cautious. Also, other crucial factors need monitoring. They comprise Brexit (which the U.K. prime minister is adamant to keep the deadline) and a Fed meeting in the middle of this month. Given that, we expect the global play to outperform the market in the near term and recommend our investors to bet on it. For the main portfolio, we maintain our call for investors to keep domestic, defensive, and dividend plays. Today, keep an eye on Thailands economic cabinet meeting, where we expect additional stimulus measures.
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05
September
2019
(views 425)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways to sideways up to test 1,665-1,670 after its sharp rally yesterday. The movement will be supported by market sentiment which is more relaxed after the situation in Hong Kong positively develops. Moreover, the U.K. House of Commons approved a draft bill that will prevent a no-deal Brexit. Given that, the U.S. 10Y-2Y bond yield turned positive again. In the near term, we expect speculation in global play. However, there continue to be crucial factors that need monitoring. They comprise the U.S. - China trade negotiation and a Fed meeting. As a result, we continue to recommend our investors hold domestic, defensive, and dividend plays because in the near term we expect them to see support from an economic cabinet meeting this Friday.
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04
September
2019
Daily Focus : 4 September 2019,Continue to park cash in domestic, defensive, and dividend plays, Accumulate at 1600+-
(views 462)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways to sideways down as uncertainties remain high. To elaborate, the U.S. and China are still at war in terms of trades. The chance for no-deal Brexit increases, and the U.S. inverted yield curve clouds the Feds decision over a rate cut at a meeting on September 17-18 (when the market expects a 0.25% rate decrease). Given that, we continue to recommend our investors park cash in domestic, defensive, and dividend plays. In the near term, we expect support from an economic cabinet meeting this Friday when we expect additional stimulus measures. If the market decreases to trade close to 1,600, we view it as an opportunity to accumulate.
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03
September
2019
Daily Focus : 3 September 2019,Continue to park cash in domestic, defensive, and dividend plays
(views 429)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways as it continues to lack fresh catalyst to stimulate. Also, the market continues to keep an eye on the development of the U.S. - China trade war, i.e. whether and when their negotiation will take place. Besides the U.S. inverted yield curve pressures the Feds monetary policy decision, i.e. whether the central bank will trim its policy rate at a meeting on September 17-18 or not. In this regard, the market currently expects the Fed to trim its policy rate by 0.25%. In Thailand, investors should continue to monitor the Constitutional Courts ruling on General Prayuths incomplete oath and his status as a state official. Given that, we continue to recommend that investors park cash in domestic, defensive, and dividend plays. Besides, wait for the market to decrease to trade close to 1,600 to accumulate.
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02
September
2019
Daily Focus : 2 September 2019,Park cash in domestic, defensive, and dividend plays
(views 426)
We expect the SET to move sideways to sideways down after the U.S. and China implemented their planned tariff hikes yesterday. Moreover, crude began to decrease once again. Hence, we expect the energy sector to see pressure from selling after it sharply rallied in the last two trading days. We view that market volatility will remain high as the markets monitor the U.S. - China trade negotiation in this month. Also, the U.S. inverted yield curve somewhat pressures the Fed to trim its policy rate at a meeting on September 17-18. In this regard, the market expects a rate cut of 0.25%. In Thailand, investors need to continue to monitor the Constitutional Courts ruling on General Prayuths incomplete oath and his status as a state official. Given that, we continue to recommend our investors park cash in domestic and defensive plays. Accumulate when the market decreases to trade close to 1,600.
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30
August
2019
Daily Focus : 30 August 2019,Continue to park cash in domestic, defensive, and dividend plays
(views 487)
Market sentiment improves, supported by optimism over the trade talks after China signaled a more compromised gesture. In this regard, we expect the SET to move up to test 1647-1648 points. However, since foreign investors continue to sell in the equity market, we believe the recovery will be temporary because several factors still need monitoring in September. They include the U.S. - China tariff hikes, central banks meetings, especially the Fed, and the Constitutional Courts ruling on General Prayuths incomplete oath and his
status as a state official. Given that, we continue to recommend our investors to park cash in domestic and defensive plays because they are safe from the said factors. They comprise the ICT, IE, health care, and power generation sectors. Meanwhile, investors with high-risk appetite may bet on rebounds if the SET falls sharply to 1,590-1,600.
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29
August
2019
Daily Focus : 29 August 2019,Continue to park cash in domestic, defensive, and dividend plays
(views 447)
We expect the SET to move sideways within a wide range of 1,610-1,625. Although the energy sector might somewhat recover after crude increased, the U.S. - China trade wars and the U.S. inverted yield curve will continue to put a cap. As a result, we expect the SET to continue to be volatile. Besides, several factors need monitoring in September. They include the U.S. and Chinas planned tariff hike, central banks meetings, the Fed in particular, and the Constitutional Courts ruling on General Prayuths incomplete oath and his status as a state official. Given that, we continue to recommend our investors park cash in domestic and defensive plays because they are safe from the said factors. They comprise the ICT, IE, health care, and power generation sectors. Meanwhile, investors with high-risk appetite may bet on rebounds if the index decreases to 1,590-1,600.
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28
August
2019
Daily Focus : 28 August 2019,Continue to bet on domestic, defensive, and dividend plays
(views 476)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,610-1,620 as the market continues to be highly volatile due to the trade war tension. Moreover, the U.S. inverted yield curve pressures and triggers concerns over the global economic outlook which might turn to a recession in the future. In Thailand, politics starts to be more uncertain as the Constitutional Court will rule on two crucial cases, including General Prayuths incomplete oath and his previous position as a state official. Given that, we continue to recommend our investors park cash in domestic and defensive plays because they are safe from the said issues. They include the ICT, IT, health care, and power generation sectors. Meanwhile, investors with high-risk appetite may bet on a rebound if the index decreases to 1,590-1,600.
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27
August
2019
Daily Focus : 27 August 2019,Continue to park cash in domestic, defensive, and dividend plays
(views 568)
We expect the SET to see a technical rebound to test 1,630-1,635 thanks to the optimism that the U.S. - China will resume their talks. However, investors should continue to monitor their development which can change any minute. Since market volatility will remain high in the next couple of weeks, we continue to recommend that investors park cash in domestic, and defensive plays because they are safe from trade wars. They include the ICT, IE, health care, and power generation sectors. However, investors with high-risk appetite may bet on a market rebound if the index decreases to trade close to 1,600.
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26
August
2019
Daily Focus : 26 August 2019,Domestic, Defensive, and Dividend Plays
(views 458)
We expect the SET to tumble to test 1,610-1,620 due to negative sentiment after the U.S. - China trade hostility escalates. To elaborate, they plan to raise tariffs on each other. Meanwhile, the Fed chairs talk at the annual symposium at Jackson Hole last Friday did not signal additional rate cut (and the next meeting will be during September 17-18). Since we expect the market to be highly volatile in the next 2-3 weeks, we continue to recommend investors park cash in domestic and defensive plays in the ICT, IE, and healthcare sectors that are safe from trade wars.
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23
August
2019
Daily Focus : 23 August 2019,Domestic, Defensive, and Dividend Plays
(views 496)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,620-1,645 as the concerns over trade wars and a recession brought on by the U.S. inverted yield curve continue to put pressure on the market. As a result,investors have their eyes fixed on the Fed chairs speech at the annual symposium at Jackson Hole tonight whether the Fed will further ease its monetary policy or not. Since we view that market volatility will remain high in the next 1-2 months, we continue to recommend our investors park cash in domestic, defensive, and dividend plays because we expect them to benefit from the governments stimulus package, which will support economic growth in the rest of this year.
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22
August
2019
Daily Focus : 22 August 2019,Domestic, Defensive, and Dividend Plays
(views 415)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,625-1,650 as market volatility remains high. In his latest tweet, President Trump continued to pressure the Fed to trim its policy rate. As a result, investors need to continue to monitor one crucial factor, i.e., the Fed chairs speech at the annual symposium at Jackson Hole tomorrow on where the Fed stands in terms of monetary policy. According to the latest report, the Fed did not signal any additional rate decrease in the rest of this year. In this regard, we continue to recommend our investors to park cash in domestic, defensive, and dividend plays because we expect them to outperform the market due to the governments stimulus measures, which we expect to help support economic growth for the rest of this year.
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21
August
2019
Daily Focus : 21 August 2019,Domestic, Defensive, and Dividend Plays
(views 448)
We expect the SET to move sideways down to test 1,610-1,620 after sentiment began to turn negative. Pressure continues to come from international factors. Specifically, there are concerns that the global economy might enter a recession due to trade wars. Moreover, there are uncertainties in Europe, including Italian politics and Brexit which does not have any progress as it moves closer to its deadline on October 31. Given that, we continue to recommend our investors to park cash in domestic, defensive, and dividend plays as market volatility remains high. However, we expect the governments stimulus package to help support the economy to turn to grow at a higher rate in the rest of this year.
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20
August
2019
Daily Focus : 20 August 2019,Domestic Defensive and Dividend Plays//Short-Term Profit Taking after Bet at 1,590-1,600
(views 451)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways up.Moreover, there is a chance the Thai main index will rise to test 1,645-1650 because broad sentiment has eased after the U.S. delayed its ban on Huawei by another 90 days. Today, investors should keep an eye on the cabinets meeting if it will approve Bt316bn worth of stimulus measures or not. Since we view that market volatility remains high, w continue to recommend our investors to invest domestic, defensive, and dividend plays. Also, we view market rebound as an opportunity to take short-term profit on the bet placed at 1,590-1,600.
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19
August
2019
Daily Focus : 19 August 2019,Domestic Defensive and Dividend Plays, Sell Bets placed at 1,590-1,600 when market increases
(views 395)
We expect the SET to continue to move in positive territory to test 1,640-1645 due to the sentiment which eases after the U.S. 10-year bond yield starts to be higher than that of five-year one. Furthermore, the market remains optimism over the U.S. - China trade after their recent talks signaled improved signals. Nonetheless, investors should continue to monitor several domestic factors. First, it is 2Q19 GDP this morning, which we expect to hit the bottom of this year. Second, it is the Thai cabinets meeting tomorrow if they will approve the planned stimulus measures of Bt316bn or not. Since we continue to view that market volatility remains high, we continue to recommend that investors place their bets on domestic, defensive, and dividend plays. Also, when the market bounces back to 1,640-1,650, it will serve as an opportunity to take profit and trim that short-term portfolio acquired at 1,590-1,600.
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16
August
2019
Daily Focus : 16 August 2019,Continue to buy defensive and dividend plays, Bet on rebounds at 1,590-1,600
(views 459)
We expect the SET to continue to be volatile, moving within a wide range of 1,590-1,620 as the market continues to see pressure from concerns over a recession in the future after the U.S. inverted yield curve. Moreover, 2Q19 earnings results miss estimates, in general. However,we remain hopeful that the government will introduce aggressive stimulus measures in the rest of this year, which will help support 4Q19 economy to recover. In this regard, the economic cabinet will meet today. Nonetheless,since risks remain high, we continue to recommend our investors park cash in defensive and dividend plays. Whats more, a market rebound continues to serve as an opportunity to trim short-term portfolio acquired at 1,590-1,600.
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15
August
2019
Daily Focus : 15 August 2019,Stay in Defensive and Dividend Plays, Bet on Rebound at around 1,590-1,600
(views 598)
We expect the SET to decrease to test the 1,590-1,600 level, in line with the sharp fall in equity markets around the globe after the U.S. inverted yield curve signaled a recession. Moreover, 2Q19 corporate earnings results miss estimates. Nonetheless, if the SET opens substantially lower, we view it as an opportunity to buy to bet on a technical rebound in
the near term. After which, investors should trim their portfolio. For longerterm investments, we continue to recommend that investors park cash in defensive and dividend plays.
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14
August
2019
Daily Focus : 14 August 2019,Domestic, Defensive, and Dividend Plays, Accumulate on Dip
(views 452)
We expect the SET to see a technical rebound at its support of 1,620 thanks to optimism over the U.S. - China trade talks after President Trumps move to delay the planned tariffs on some Chinese imports to December 15 from September 1 somewhat eases market concern. However, investors still need to continue to keep an eye on this development. Meanwhile, the SET Indexs valuation begins to be inexpensive.In particular, the current earning yield gap stands at about 5%, a rate that usually sees a reversal. In this regard, we see a limited downside and continue to view retreats as an opportunity to accumulate fundamental stocks. Toward this end, we focus on domestic play.
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13
August
2019
Daily Focus : 13 August 2019,Domestic, Defensive and Dividend Plays, Accumulate on Dip
(views 436)
We expect the SET to continue to be volatile and move within a wide range as it continues to be pressured by the global economic slowdown brought on by the U.S. - China trade wars. According to the latest information, U.S. 10Y-2Y bond yield begins to turn to decrease. This makes the concerns over a recession turn to put a cap on equity markets around the globe.Nonetheless, we continue to view that the SETs downside is limited as its valuation starts to be attractive. To elaborate, the current earning yield gap stands at about 4.8%. Since it is close to the upper band of 5%, there is usually a reversal. In this regard, we view the SETs retreats as an opportunity to accumulate fundamental stocks for medium to long-term investments. Our focus is still on domestic play because we expect the government to introduce stimulus measures in the future.
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09
August
2019
Daily Focus : 9 August 2019,Domestic, Defensive and Dividend Plays, Accumulate on Dip
(views 412)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways within a wide range. In the near term, there is a chance the index will see a technical rebound to test 1,670-1,675, in line with equity markets around the globe. To elaborate, they begin to recover after U.S. bond yield improves, helping soothe investor concern over a recession. However, we continue to believe that the SET will not gain much at this time because there continue to be downside risks. Specifically, the U.S. - China trade war still lingers. In this regard, both parties will return to the negotiation table next month. In Thailand, listed companies 2Q19 earnings results are weak. Given that, we continue to recommend our investors to be selective. Wait for the index to decrease to its support of 1,650 to accumulate the domestic play for medium- to long-term investments.
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08
August
2019
Daily Focus : 8 August 2019,Domestic, Defensive, and Dividend Plays, Accumulate on Dip
(views 431)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways within a wide range of 1,670-1,780. Moreover, the market will be highly volatile due to the tension over trade wars, which put pressure on market sentiment and begin to affect the global economy to the point that several central banks, including the BoT, had to trim their policy rate; some of which
surprised the market. Meanwhile, President Trump continued to pressure the Fed to slash interest rates. given that the global play remains unattractive. On the local front, we remain hopeful that the government will introduce a new large round of stimuli this year. In this regard, we view the indexs retreats to its support of 1,650 as an opportunity to accumulate fundamental stocks for medium- to long-term investments, and our focus is on the domestic play.
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07
August
2019
Daily Focus : 7 August 2019,Domestic, Defensive and Dividend Plays, Accumulate on Dip
(views 397)
We expect the SET to move sideways within a wide range of 1,670-1,780 amid volatile trading. Although U.S. equity markets rebounded quite strong, the U.S. - China trade wars continue to pressure,and we do not expect it to end shortly. In this regard, we continue to recommend our investors park cash in domestic, defensive, and dividend plays. Although the profit outlook of Thai listed companies and Thailands 2Q19 GDP are not bright, we expect positive development in 2H19 after the new government is in place. If the SET tumbles to 1,650, we continue to view it as an opportunity to accumulate fundamental stocks for mid- to longterm investments.
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06
August
2019
Daily Focus : 6 August 2019,Domestic, Defensive, and Dividend Plays, Accumulate on Dip
(views 459)
We expect the SET to decrease to test 1,640-1,650 after the negative sentiment increases due to the U.S. - China trade tension. In its latest move, China imposed its retaliation measures on the U.S. by suspending its purchases of U.S. agricultural products. Moreover, Beijing allowed the yuan to fall below 7 yuan a dollar. Given that, we expect international funds to continue to flow out of risk assets. This will make domestic, defensive, and dividend plays outperform the market and serve as a place to park cash at this time. Moreover, we see a window of opportunities to accumulate stocks for mid- to long-term investments again at about 1,650.
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05
August
2019
Daily Focus : 5 August 2019,Earnings and Defensive Plays, Accumulate on Dip
(views 415)
We expect the SET to continue to decrease due to persistently negative market sentiment. In particular, the U.S. - China trade tension increases after the U.S. is preparing to collect more import duty from Chinese imports, and China is getting ready to fire back its retaliation measures. Moreover, we do not expect 2Q19 earnings results, which will arrive in the next two weeks, to be exciting. In this regard, the market rebound will be limited. Having said that, this round of retreats will serve as an opportunity to accumulate after our call for investors to sell some to lock in profit.
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02
August
2019
Daily Focus : 2 August 2019,Earnings and Defensive Plays, Accumulate on Dip
(views 600)
We expect the SET to move down to test its support of 1,680 due to negative sentiment around the globe after President Trump tweeted that he was preparing to impose a 10% tariff on US$300bn worth of Chinese imports, which surprises the market. Moreover, the dull outlook for earnings and 2Q19 GDP will put a cap on the market. Since the market retreats are in line with our call for our investors to cash in at 1,720-1,750, we view this as an opportunity for a new round of accumulations. However, we have adopted a more cautious view that investors buy at 1,650-1,680.
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01
August
2019
Daily Focus : 1 August 2019,Earnings and Selective Plays, Accumulate on Dip
(views 447)
We expect the SET to move sideways down after the FOMC trimmed its policy rate by 0.25%, as expected. However, the meeting did not signal that they would cut their policy rate one more time this year,which disappoints the market. Although the U.S. - China trade negotiation did not show any significant progress, it was in tandem with our view that
the market had reflected most of the said catalyst. and there is a chance it will retreat in the near term. Although we expect 2Q19 earnings season and GDP to be dull, we believe they will slowly recover after the new government introduces stimulus measures. In this regard, we view market retreat to 1,680-1,700 as an opportunity to accumulate fundamental stocks.
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31
July
2019
Daily Focus : 31 July 2019,Earnings and Selective Play, Accumulate on Dip
(views 472)
We expect the SET to move sideways down after the index decreased to trade below its short-term support of 1,715. Since the overall outlook for Thailands 2Q19 GDP and earnings season is not bright,the market lacks short-term catalysts. Besides, the market continues to wait to see if the FOMC will trim its policy rate by 0.25% or not at a meeting tonight, while the U.S. - China trade talks will take a while longer. However,since we recommended our investors to cash in when the market increased to test 1,750, this round of retreats will serve as an opportunity to buy stocks with solid fundamentals. In this regard, we recommend our investors to accumulate at 1,680-1,700.
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26
July
2019
Daily Focus : 26 July 2019,Earnings Play//Range Trading
(views 538)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways, pressured by the ECBs move to maintain its policy rate, which slightly disappoints the market. Moreover, it makes next weeks FOMC meeting a more critical factor whether the U.S. central bank will further ease its monetary policy or not. Having said that, there is one specific catalyst lately after Moody’s has upgraded Thailands outlook to Positive from Stable (while maintaining the rate at Baa). In this regard, there is a chance the SET will outperform its regional peers. We continue to recommend our investors to be selective and wait to accumulate on weakness since we expect the SET to move within 1,715-1,750 in this round.
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25
July
2019
Daily Focus : 25 July 2019,Earnings Play & Range Trading
(views 446)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways as the market waits for the real sectors 2Q19 earnings results and an FOMC meeting at the end of this month. Today, keep an eye on the Governments announcement of its policy statement before the Parliament. In this regard,we expect it to help the domestic play see speculations. Moreover, pay attention to an ECB meeting where we expect to see a new round of stimulus measures. Next week, the U.S. and China will resume their trade discussion.Given that, we continue to recommend our investors to be selective and wait for the market to retreat to accumulate. We expect the SET to move within 1,715-1,750 in this round.
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24
July
2019
Daily Focus : 24 July 2019,Earnings Play & Range Trading
(views 421)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways as the market continues to eye at crucial factors, including the real sectors 2Q19 earnings results and an FOMC meeting at the end of this month whether there will be a rate cut as most have anticipated or not. However, the market is supported by the domestic play, which we expect to see support from the governments announcement of its policy statement before the Parliament this week. On top of that, the U.S. and China will resume their trade talks next week. In this regard,
we continue to recommend our investors to be selective. Wait for the market to retreat before making a new round of accumulations. We expect the SET to move within 1,715-1,750 in this round.
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23
July
2019
Daily Focus : 23 July 2019,Earnings Play & Range Trading
(views 550)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways. Since there is no fresh catalyst to provide support the near term, the crucial factors remain the real sectors 2Q19 earnings results and an FOMC meeting at the end of this month whether there will be a rate cut or not. Since we expect the domestic play to see support from the governments announcement of its policy statement to the Parliament this week, we continue to recommend our investors to be selective and accumulate when the market decreases. In this regard, we expect the SET to move within 1,715-1,750 at this time.
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22
July
2019
Daily Focus : 22 July 2019,Bet on Earnings Play
(views 465)
We expect the SET to move sideways after it bounced back quite sharply late last week. However, we continue to view that the SETs upside will limit at 1,750-1,760 at this time after the market has factored in most of the optimism over a Fed rate cut at the end of this month. In Thailand, we will continue to monitor the real sectors 2Q19 earnings results and the governments announcement of its policy statement to the Parliament this week. In this regard, we recommend our investors to be selective and wait to accumulate when the market decreases to 1,720-1,700.
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19
July
2019
(views 541)
The SET is likely to move sideways and we recommend our investors to be selective. However, banks will continue to put a cap on the market after their profit does not see any positive surprise because their loan loss provision does not decrease as in TISCOs case. Finally, crude continues to fall, putting pressure on the energy and refinery sector.
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18
July
2019
Daily Focus : 18 July 2019,Selective / Short-Term Sell into Strength
(views 422)
The SET looks likely to continue to decrease due to renewed concerns over trade wars. Last night, the Feds Beige Book showed that the economy saw modest expansion, and the business sector was concerned over trade disputes. Meanwhile, the energy sector continues to be capped by crude which tumbled by another 1% after U.S. oil stockpiles decreased less than expected. The petrochemical sector is pressured by the trade war issue and its persistently weak 2Q19 profit. During these two days, keep an eye on banks after there is a chance that their profit will come in higher than expected due to a decline in provision because it will somewhat help support market sentiment.
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17
July
2019
Daily Focus : 17 July 2019,Be Selective, Sell into Strength to lock in short-term profit
(views 519)
The SET is likely to continue to decrease after the trade wars issue is back. In particular, President Trump said that the trade negotiations with China did not progress and threatened to impose tariffs on the remaining imports from China, which are worth US$300bn. Moreover, the energy sector will see pressure from crude which tumbled by over 3% after Iran signaled its readiness to talk to the U.S. if sanctions are lifted. Tonight, investors should keep an eye on the Feds Beige Book to look for clues over the Feds interest rate outlook. In this regard, the market will continue to be very selective as it starts to get into earnings season.
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15
July
2019
Daily Focus : 15 July 2019,Selective //Short-Term Sell into Strength
(views 582)
We expect the SET to decrease due to the BoTs interventions to tackle foreign fund inflow to speculate on the Baht because if not successful, there might be additional measures. As a result, exercise caution when speculating on the electronics sector because their profit was weak. Moreover, eye at Chinas 2Q19 GDP which is due out this morning whether it will come in lower than the consensus forecast of 6.2% or not after the U.S. raised its tariffs on Chinese imports from 10% to 25% on May 10. Today, DTAC will announce its earnings results and banks will report theirs late this week. Meanwhile, the refinery sector might decrease in line with Hurricane Barry which is weakening. In this regard, the market will be selective while switching from sector to another.
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12
July
2019
Daily Focus : 12 July 2019,Selective and Laggard Plays
(views 413)
We expect the SET to move sideways to sideways up after Mr. Powell continued to signal a rate cut, which made the market believe that the Fed will trim its policy rate by 0.5% at a meeting on July 30-31. Moreover, Asian equity markets benefit from foreign fund inflows. However, the concerns over trade talks and 2Q19 earnings season which will begin next week will limit the indexs rally to 1,760. Given that, we expect the market to be selective and switch from one sector to another.
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11
July
2019
Daily Focus : 11 July 2019,Selective and Laggard Plays
(views 458)
We expect the SET to move sideways to sideways up after yesterdays strong rally to reflect on the new cabinet. Moreover, the first day of the Fed presidents testimony before Congress and minutes of the FOMC meeting in June reflect a dovish view and give way to a rate cut to be in line and supportive to economic growth. In this regard, we expect Asian equity markets to benefit from foreign fund inflow in the near term. Nonetheless, we continue to view that the SETs upside limits to 1,760 (+/-) since the markets valuation is rather high. Whats more, listed companies 2Q19 earnings results and the economy remain lackluster. Hence, we recommend investors wait for the market to retreat to make a new round of accumulations.
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10
July
2019
Daily Focus : 10 July 2019,Selective and Laggard Plays
(views 546)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways. There is a crucial factor that investors need to keep a close eye during these two days. Specifically, the Fed president will make a testimony before Congress.This will signal the U.S. central banks monetary policy and the prospect of a rate cut at a meeting late this month. Nonetheless, since we view that the
market has factored in the optimism over a rate decrease, there is a chance the market will see sell-on-fact (and the selling will accelerate if the Fed does not trim its policy rate). Whats more, we expect listed companies 2Q19 earnings to be mediocre, while the SET is currently trading at a demanding level. In this regard, we recommend our investors to be selective and wait for market retreats before a new round of accumulations.
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09
July
2019
Daily Focus : 9 July 2019,Selective and Laggard Plays
(views 415)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways down after the indexs strong rallies in the previous month or so. This week, crucial factors that need monitoring include the Fed presidents testimony before Congress, which will reflect the U.S. central banks monetary policy and will signal the prospect of a rate cut at a meeting at the end of this month.
However, we view that markets have factored in much of the said optimism.The SET is currently demanding, valuation-wise and the market has entered 2Q19 earnings season, which is expected to be lackluster, in general. In this regard, investors need to remain cautious on market falls and be very selective.
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08
July
2019
Daily Focus : 8 July 2019,Selective and Laggard Plays
(views 464)
We expect the SET to move sideways to sideways down after the stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls might lower the prospect that the Fed will trim its policy rate at a meeting late this month. Whats more, equity markets around the globe, as well as the SET, have rallied to reflect on the said optimism since June. At the current level, the
SET is rather demanding and it begins to enter 2Q19 earnings season, which we expect to be mediocre. In this regard, there is a risk that the market will retreat in the near term.
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05
July
2019
Daily Focus : 5 July 2019,Selective and Laggard Plays, Short- Term Sell into Strength
(views 478)
We expect the SET to move sideways since there is no fresh catalyst to provide support. Furthermore, investors are waiting for U.S. non-farm payrolls in June, which is due out tonight because it will have an impact on the Feds decision whether to trim its policy rate at a meeting at the end of this month or not. In this regard, markets see a 70% probability that the Fed will do so. However, we believe that the market has rallied to factor in the said optimism. Whats more, we expect listed companies 2Q19 profit to be mediocre, while the markets valuation is on the high side. Hence, there is a chance that the SET will retreat in the near term.
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04
July
2019
Daily Focus : 4 July 2019,Selective and Laggard Play
(views 438)
We expect the SET to move sideways to sideways up thanks to optimism that the Fed will trim its policy rate at a meeting late this month. However, we believe the market has rallied to reflect most of the said factor because the index has increased since last month. Hence, we expect market upside to be limited. For 2Q19, we expect listed companies earnings to remain weak due to a political vacuum. Moreover, the is demanding, valuation-wise. In this regard, we continue to recommend our investors wait for market retreats before making a round of investments. In the short run, it is advisable that investors are selective.
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03
July
2019
Daily Focus : 3 July 2019,Bet on Selective and Laggard Plays
(views 411)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways down.In particular, we expect the energy sector to decrease because crude tumbled by nearly 5% due to sell-on-fact after OPEC and its allies extended their output cut by nine months, as expected. On the international front, we expect the U.S. - China trade talks to take a while. Moreover, there is additional pressure after the U.S. prepares to further hike its tariffs on US$4bn worth of imports from the EU. In Thailand, we expect Thai economic growth and listed companies earnings to remain dull. Since the Thai equity markets valuation is demanding, we recommend our investors wait for market retreats to consider a new round of investments. Besides, we recommend our investors to be more selective.
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02
July
2019
Daily Focus : 2 July 2019,Bet on Energy and Laggard Plays
(views 424)
We expect the SET to move sideways after upside limits because the index has rallied to factor in most of the positive developments, including the U.S. - China trade truce and increased crude price after there was speculation that OPEC and its allies would extend output cut by another 6-9 months. Meanwhile, Thai economic fundamentals, as well as listed
companies 2Q19 earnings outlook are not very bright after there is yet a new government. It resulted in a vacuum in terms of the execution of policies and stimulus. Valuation-wise, Thai equities are demanding. Currently, it trades on a 2019 PER of 16.6x. Hence, investors need to remain cautious over near-term selling.
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01
July
2019
Daily Focus : 1 July 2019,Bet on Energy and Laggard Plays
(views 436)
We expect the SET to move sideways to sideways up after the results from the U.S. - China trade talk last Saturday were in line.To elaborate, both parties agreed not to make further hikes in their tariffs and would return to a negotiation table. Meanwhile, we expect the energy sector to continue to lead the market after Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to extend their output cut by another 6-9 months. In this regard, OPEC and its allies will meet this week. Nonetheless, the SET has substantially increased in the past month or so to factor in most of the catalysts. Since the index is not trading in tandem with the Thai economy and listed companies earnings, we recommend our investors remain cautious on near term retreats.
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28
June
2019
Daily Focus : 28 June 2019,Bet on Laggard Play
(views 448)
We expect the SET to move sideways as the market waits for results the G-20 meetings and the U.S. - China trade talks this Saturday whether it will yield positive development or not. In this regard, markets do not expect the two parties to instantly strike a deal but to pave way for future conclusions. However, the SET has sharply rallied in the past month or so to reflect most of the catalysts. Since the increase does not reflect the domestic economy and listed companies earnings, we recommend our investors exercise caution on near-term retreats.
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27
June
2019
Daily Focus : 27 June 2019,Bet on Energy and Laggard Plays
(views 460)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways.Moreover, there is a chance the Thai main index will retreat in the near term after it sharply rallied earlier to reflect most of the catalysts. Looking ahead, investors should continue to keep an eye on one crucial factor, i.e. meetings of the G-20 where the U.S. - Chinese presidents will meet whether there will be any positive development in terms of trades or not. According to the latest information, the U.S. secretary of the Treasury said that the two countries were 90% in agreement. Meanwhile, we expect the energy sector to remain strong after crude surged by nearly 3% due to the persistent tension in the U.S. and Iran conflicts.
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26
June
2019
Daily Focus : 26 June 2019,Bet on Laggard Play
(views 440)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways.Moreover, the index is likely to retreat in the near term after it surged in the past week and month to reflect optimism over several factors, leaving limited upside. Meanwhile, the Fed presidents statement yesterday did not signal a rate cut and reiterated the central banks independence in its monetary policy. Looking ahead, there is one crucial factor that needs monitoring, i.e. a meeting between the U.S. and Chinese presidents at the G-20 if there will be positive development or not. Finally, we expect todays MPC meeting to revise down its economic forecasts, particularly exports. In this regard, we view that laggard stocks will move strongly and become a target for speculation.
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25
June
2019
Daily Focus : 25 June 2019,Bet on Energy and Laggard Plays
(views 439)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways down within a narrow range after it jumped in the past week and month, leaving limited upside in the near term. Looking ahead, investors should continue to keep an eye on a meeting between the U.S. and China presidents at the G-20 to see if there is any positive development in terms of trades or not.
Tomorrow, although we expect the MPC to continue to maintain its policy rate, there should be a downward revision in their economic forecast. In this regard, we expect the energy sector to outperform the market in the near term because we expect crude to remain high due to increased tension between the U.S. and Iran after more sanctions were imposed. Whats more,we expect laggard stocks to begin to be a target for speculation.
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24
June
2019
Daily Focus : 24 June 2019,Bet on Energy and Laggard Plays
(views 465)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways after it substantially increased in the past week. This week, there are several factors that need monitoring. In particular, we have to see if the U.S. - China presidents meet at G20 and how positive the meeting is in terms of trade relation. In this regard, we view the SETs upside as limited. However, crude continued to increase due to the U.S. - Iran conflicts. Hence, we expect it to continue to provide support for the energy sector. Besides, we expect laggard stocks to outperform the market at this time.
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21
June
2019
Daily Focus : 21 June 2019,Bet on Laggard Play, Short-Term Sell into Strength
(views 432)
We expect the SET to move sideways. Although the energy sector continues to benefit from the rise in crude, we view that the market has sharply rallied to factor in most of the catalysts, including a Fed rate cut and a meeting between the U.S. and Chinese presidents at the G20 late this month. In this regard, investors need to continue to monitor progress on the U.S. - China trade talks to see if they are able to strike a deal in the future or not. Given all that said, we view the SETs upside is limited. Whats more, there is a chance the index will retreat in the near term. Looking ahead, we believe that laggard stocks will outperform the SET and the securities that will be added into the FTSE index, which will become effective today.
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20
June
2019
Daily Focus : 20 June 2019,Short-Term Sell into Strength
(views 611)
We expect the SET to move sideways to sideways up after the FOMC meeting results come in as expected. To elaborate, the Fed continued to maintain its policy rate at 2.25-2.50%, while the Dot Plot reflected an outlook for two rate cuts within 2020, in tandem with the consensus forecasts. In the future, the market will continue to focus on a meeting between President Trump and President Xi at the G20 late this month, where the market expects both parties to pave way for extended trade negotiation. Nonetheless, the SET jumped yesterday. Whats more, the index has rallied by over 5% in the past month. Technically, the SET begins to signal an overbought. In this regard, we view that the indexs gain start to
limit and there is a chance for retreats in the near term.
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19
June
2019
Daily Focus : 19 June 2019,Bet on Global Play
(views 444)
We expect the SET to increase to test its key psychological resistance of 1,690-1,700 thanks to investment sentiment which is bright after President Trump confirmed that he would meet Chinese president late this month to resume trade talks, something the market wants and would like to see. Tonight, keep an eye on FED meeting results in terms of Dot Plot after ECB president signaled in advance that policy easing remains necessary. On Thai politics, we expect new cabinet lineup to be submitted to the King late this month. Given the catalysts, we expect them to help support more funds to flow into risk assets. In this regard, we expect the global play to turn to outperform the market in the near term at this time.
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18
June
2019
Daily Focus : 18 June 2019,Short-Term Sell into Strength, Stay in Domestic Play
(views 422)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways while the market waits for results from FED meetings. In this regard, markets expect the policy rate to be maintained, particularly after the Dot Plot showed the future interest rate outlook. Moreover, the market will continue to keep an eye on the U.S. - China trade wars. According to the latest information, the U.S. Commerce Secretary said President Trump was ready to impose tariffs on the remaining US$300bn worth of Chinese goods if they could not strike a deal. In this regard, we view that the domestic play will continue to outperform the market.
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17
June
2019
Daily Focus : 17 June 2019,Sell short-term bets into strength
(views 397)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways after it has quickly rallied earlier to factor in most of the positive factors, and there is no fresh catalyst to provide support. This week, there is a factor that needs monitoring, i.e. a Fed meeting where the market expects it to maintain policy rate. In late June, G20 will meet. In this regard, investors should see if there is a meeting between the U.S. and China because it might have an impact on a decision to hike tariffs on the remaining US$300bn worth of Chinese goods. Given that, we continue to recommend our investors focus on the domestic play because we expect it to outperform the market.
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14
June
2019
Daily Focus : 14 June 2019,Short-Term Sell into Strengt
(views 471)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways down after the market has earlier reflected most of the positive factors, while there is no fresh catalyst to provide support. Next week, there is a crucial factor that needs monitoring, i.e. FOMC meetings (where the market expects the Fed to maintain its rates). However, the highlight will be at G20 meetings late this month, where the market continues to expect positive development in terms of trade negotiation, even though it remains unclear if President Trump and President Xi will meet. In this regard, we view that domestic play will outperform the market in the near term because we expect a new Cabinet to be ready shortly, which will help drive the economy in the second half of this year.
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13
June
2019
Daily Focus : 13 June 2019,Short-Term Sell into Strength
(views 402)
We expect the SET to move sideways to sideways down after the index has earlier rallied to reflect most of the catalysts. In this regard, we expect the energy sector to weigh on the market after crude tumbled by over 4% after U.S. oil stockpiles surged, reflecting negative impacts and concerns from trade wars. Looking ahead, investors still need to continue to monitor a crucial factor, G20 meetings. According to the latest information, it is unclear if President Trump and President Xi will meet or not. In Thailand, we believe there will be a new Cabinet shortly. Hence, we expect domestic play to outperform the market at this time.
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12
June
2019
Daily Focus : 12 June 2019,Short-Term Sell into Strength
(views 430)
We expect the SET to move sideways. In this regard, we continue to view that upside will be more limited after the index has rallied to factor in most of the positive factors, particularly a Fed rate cut this year.In the future, there is a crucial factor that needs monitoring, i.e. G20 meetings. In particular, if there is no positive development in the U.S. - China trade negotiation, President Trump might impose tariffs on the remaining US$300bn worth of Chinese goods, which will renew market concern in this matter. Nonetheless, we expect domestic factor to continue to support the domestic play because we expect a new cabinet to be in place shortly
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11
June
2019
Daily Focus : 11 June 2019,Take short-term profit when market increases
(views 415)
We expect the SET to move sideways after the Thai main index has rallied considerably to factor in positive factors, i.e. the prospect that the Fed will trim its policy rate in the future and the U.S. - Mexican trade deal. In the future, investors have to keep an eye on a crucial factor, i.e. G20 meetings which will take place late this month. In this regard, President Trump said that he is ready to impose tariffs on the remaining US$300bn worth of Chinese good if both parties are unable to come to a trade deal. Given that, the risk of a market retreat remains. On domestic politics, we expect a cabinet within this month. In this regard, we expect the domestic play to benefit from economic stimulus in the second half of this year.
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10
June
2019
Daily Focus : 10 June 2019,Bet on global play
(views 408)
We expect the SET to move sideways to sideways up.Investment sentiment is fairly bright after the U.S. and Mexico could reach a deal, warding off all tariffs planned for today. Moreover, U.S. non-farm payrolls were weak, making the markets believe that the Fed will trim its rates sooner. In this regard, we expect the global play to perform well at this time after they have retreated lately. Nonetheless, there are key factors that need monitoring, i.e. G20 meetings late this month where markets expect positive development on the U.S. - China trade negotiation.
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07
June
2019
Daily Focus : 7 June 2019,Bet on global play and hold domestic one
(views 460)
We expect the SET to move sideways to sideways up,supported by the expectations that the U.S. will delay its tariffs on Mexican imports from next Monday in order to pave way for further negotiations.Although the ECB did not clearly mention about a new round of LTRO at yesterdays meeting, the central bank would maintain its negative interest rate until the middle of next year. Besides how Thai ministerial positions are distributed, we recommend our investors to keep an eye on G20 meetings late this month where the market expects positive development in terms of the U.S. - China trade talks. In this regard, the markets upside begins to limit at this time.
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06
June
2019
Daily Focus : 6 June 2019,Place short-term bets on global play
(views 438)
We expect the SET to move sideways up thanks to the sentiment which remains positive after there are speculations that the Fed will trim its rates this year. Besides, this expectation also supports positive sentiment in global play. On domestic politics, the parliament has voted to elect General Prayuth as Thailands Prime Minister. In this regard, we expect the domestic play to continue to sharply increase in the mid to long run thanks to stimulus measures, which will drive the domestic economy. Nonetheless, we view that the SETs upside will begin to limit after the index has rallied to factor in most of the upside risks. Furthermore, the U.S. -China trade wars are yet to show any clear positive development.
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05
June
2019
Daily Focus : 5 June 2019,Place short-term bets on global play
(views 434)
We expect the SET to continue to rally thanks to positive investment sentiment after there are expectations that the Fed will decrease its rates, which will result in an economic recovery. Given that, we expect the global play to turn to recover. In Thailand, politics is clear after the Democrat Party has agreed to join the coalition government. Since the parliaments voting of a new prime minister should go smoothly, we expect it to help support the domestic play to continue to rally.
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04
June
2019
Daily Focus : 4 June 2019,Stay in Domestic and Defensive Play
(views 513)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways within a wide range. Furthermore, there is a chance the Thai main index will decrease. In this regard, the indexs crucial support remains at 1,600. The market continues to keep an eye on trade wars, which are yet to show any concrete positive development. Meanwhile, U.S. ISM manufacturing in May
decreased, missing estimate. In Thailand, politics is at its critical juncture. Today, investors need to closely watch the Democrat Partys resolution if the party will join a coalition government or not since it will have an impact on the election of Thailands Prime Minister tomorrow. If the Palang Pracharat Party succeeds in its forming of a government, we believe that the market will respond positively. In this regard, domestic and defensive plays will outperform the market.
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31
May
2019
Daily Focus : 31 May 2019,Continue to park cash in domestic and defensive plays
(views 400)
We expect the SET to decrease. In this regard, there is a key support at 1,600. The market continues to be pressured by negative factors, i.e. trade wars. In his latest move, President Trump imposed a tariff of 5% on all Mexican products starting June 10 onward. With China, there is yet any positive development in terms of negotiation and trade deal. On domestic politics, the Palang Pracharat Partys forming of government is unsettled and must be followed next week. Given that, we expect defensive and domestic plays to outperform the market at this time.
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30
May
2019
Daily Focus : 30 May 2019,Stay in Domestic and Defensive Play
(views 412)
We expect the SET to continue to move down. In this regard, the indexs crucial support is at 1,600. The market continues to be capped by the negative sentiment from the U.S. - China trade wars, which have an impact on the global economy. Moreover, the tension remains high after China might take rare earth, an essential raw material in the technology industry, as its hostage. On Thai politics, the forming of the Palang Pracharat government is unsettled. Given that, we believe defensive and domestic plays will outperform the market.
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29
May
2019
Daily Focus : 29 May 2019,Domestic Play
(views 384)
We expect the SET to move in negative territory due to the sentiment which is not bright. To elaborate, the trade wars continue to pressure. Moreover, the inverted yield curve has turned to trigger anxiety over future global economic growth, while the market has fully factored in MSCIs increase of Thai equitys weight. On Thai politics, although there is yet
a conclusion over the Democrat Partys joining a coalition government, we believe it is just a near-term noise. Furthermore, we believe that the government will be in place shortly. In this regard, we focus investment in the domestic play, particularly consumption- and investment-related stocks because they will benefit from additional stimulus measures.
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28
May
2019
Daily Focus : 28 May 2019,Continue to bet on domestic play
(views 421)
We expect the SET to move sideways up. Although the U.S. - China trade wars are yet to show clear positive developments, a meeting between President Trump and President Xi at a G20 meeting late next month has triggered optimism. Moreover, Thai politics is clear after the Palang Pracharat Party moves to form a government. To elaborate, we believe it will serve as a key driver for the market because we expect the new government to introduce additional stimulus measures to stimulate the economy. In this regard, we expect domestic play, particularly consumption and investment-related stocks, to outperform the market.
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27
May
2019
Daily Focus : 27 May 2019,Domestic Play
(views 451)
We expect the SET to move up today thanks to sentiment, which is more relaxed after President Trump said that the U.S.-China trade wars would end soon. Moreover, he prepared to discuss it with President Xi at a G20 meeting late next month. In Thailand, we begin to see clarity over the Palang Pracharat Partys forming of a government after House Speaker election result. In this regard, we expect domestic play, particularly consumption- and investment-related stocks to outperform the market.
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24
May
2019
Daily Focus : 24 May 2019,Defensive and Selective Buy
(views 401)
We expect the SET to continue to decrease to test its support of 1,600 once again. Furthermore, there is a chance the index will fall to trade below the said level due to the negative sentiment. Since the U.S. - China trade wars get tenser, crude dropped by 5.7%, putting pressure on the energy sector. In Thailand, although it remains unclear, we believe
the Palang Pracharat Party has the upper hand to form a government. In this regard, we view that the domestic play will continue to outperform the global one. That said, we continue to recommend our investors to be selective.
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23
May
2019
Daily Focus : 23 May 2019,Selective Buy//Short-Term Profit Taking
(views 417)
We expect the SET to move sideways to sideways down as sentiment continued to be capped by the U.S. - China trade wars after they are yet to fix dates for a new round of meetings. Moreover, Thai politics has to wait for clarity over forming of a new government before the Parliament convenes on May 25. Nonetheless, there is a chance that Thai
equity markets will outperform its regional peer thanks to MSCIs increasing of Thai equitys weight next week. In this regard, we continue to focus investment on stocks with specific catalysts. Moreover, we recommend our investors sell to lock in near-term profit after the position entered at 1,600 to bet on rebounds.
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22
May
2019
Daily Focus : 22 May 2019,Selective and Defensive Play//Bet on Rebound around 1,600
(views 558)
We expect the SET to move sideways within a wide range. In this regard, there is still a chance that the index will see a technical rebound from its support of 1,600 after sentiment looks more relaxed when it comes to the U.S. - China trade wars. Moreover, foreign investors began to turn to register a net buy position in Thai equity.However, investors need to continue to keep an eye on Thai politics, i.e., forming of a new government before the Parliament convenes on May 25. In this regard, we continue to focus on selective investment on stocks with specific catalysts to bet on short-term rebounds. Moreover, it is advisable that investors hold more cash.
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21
May
2019
Daily Focus : 21 May 2019, Defensive and Selective Buy. Bet on rebounds at around 1,600.
(views 389)
We expect the SET to continue to be volatile. In particular, we expect the Thai main index to decrease to test its support of 1,600 as sentiment continues to be capped by the U.S. - China trade wars,which remain tense after Google banned Huawei. In Thailand, politics remains unclear. Although the Parliament is about to convene on May 25, we do not know which parties are going to ally with whom. Today, keep an eye on Thailands 1Q19 GDP. In this regard, the market expects it to grow by about 3%, and it is likely that the state will revise down its full-year forecast. Hence, we continue to recommend that our investors park cash in defensive stocks, bet on near-term rebounds, and hold more money.
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15
May
2019
Daily Focus : 15 May 2019,Bet on domestic defensive play
(views 517)
We expect the SET to move sideways amid high volatility. In this regard, we will continue to monitor development over trade wars. Today, keep an eye on domestic politics, particularly the election of a new Democrat Partys leader as well as the Bhumjaithai Partys stance as political parties alliance to form a government will become clear next week. Given that, we continue to recommend that our investors bet on defensive stocks and hold more cash.
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14
May
2019
Daily Focus : 14 May 2019,Continue to bet on defensive play
(views 444)
We expect the SET to continue to be volatile.Furthermore, the index is likely to continue to decrease due to unfavorable investment sentiment after China retaliated the U.S. with a planned tariff hike on US$60bn worth of U.S. imports. Moreover, we still need to keep monitoring if the U.S. will impose import duty on other countries or not. In this regard, it will be the EUs car industry this week. In Thailand, investors have to keep an eye on political parties finding alliances to form a government, particularly after the Democrat Party elects its new leader tomorrow. Given that, we maintain our call for investors to park cash in defensive stocks and recommend that our investors turn to hold more money.
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13
May
2019
Daily Focus : 13 May 2019,Bet on domestic defensive stocks and MSCI play
(views 474)
We expect the SET to continue to be volatile. Moreover,there is a chance the index will decrease due to uncertainty over trade wars,which continue to put pressure after last weeks talks produced no deal. In this regard, we will continue to monitor if there will be an informal meeting between their leaders aside G20 meetings or not. On Thailands politics, we
will keep an eye on forming of a government after the Democrat Party has a new leader. However, there is a catalyst from MSCI which will increase the weight of Thai equity tomorrow. As a result, we expect the stocks that will be included in MSCIs calculation to outperform the market.
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10
May
2019
Daily Focus : 10 May 2019,Bet on domestic defensive play
(views 475)
We expect the SET to move sideways in the morning while waiting for clarity from the U.S. - China trade talks. In this regard, if the two countries can reach a deal or delay the planned tax hike from todays midnight U.S. time to pave ways for more negotiations, we believe that the concern will ease and the market will rebound to 1,670, led by global play. Otherwise, we view that the market will retreat to test 1,620-1,630. Given that, we expect the domestic defensive play to outperform the market as domestic politics continues to go as planned. Nonetheless, we will continue to monitor the lawsuit made against the EC over their calculation of party-list MPs.
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09
May
2019
Daily Focus : 9 May 2019,Defensive and Domestic Play
(views 468)
We expect the SET to continue to be volatile as investors wait on the U.S. - China trade negotiations which remain tensed. In Thailand, the EC has announced names of party-list MPs, covering 26 parties.Since there were many small parties, there is a higher chance that the Palang Pracharath Party will become the government. However, we will continue to keep an eye on lawsuits that will follow because they might serve as a pressing factor. In this regard, we expect funds to continue to park in defensive stocks because they will outperform the market.
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08
May
2019
Daily Focus : 8 May 2019,Bet on domestic defensive play
(views 439)
We expect the SET to continue to decrease to test 1,660-1,665 after investment sentiment around the globe remains negative due to the U.S. - China trade wars. In this regard, we will continue to keep an eye on their trade negotiations in the next two days. In Thailand, the Constitutional Court will rule on how to calculate party-list MPs and the Election Commission will announce their official elections results today.Since more international funds look set to stream into defensive stocks while waiting for clarity, we expect them to outperform the market.
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07
May
2019
Daily Focus : 7 May 2019,Bet on domestic defensive play
(views 447)
We expect the SET to decrease to test its support of 1,660-1,665, in line with equity markets around the globe which moved down yesterday after President Trump tweeted that he prepared to raise import tariff on US$200bn worth of Chinese imports from 10% to 25% this Friday.Nonetheless, the last meeting for this round of trade talks will still take place in the middle of this week. It keeps alive the market optimism that the U.S. and China will reach a deal. In Thailand, two factors need monitoring. They include official elections results and the Constitutional Courts ruling on how to calculate party-list MPs. In this regard, we expect domestic defensive plays to outperform the market in the short term.
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30
April
2019
Daily Focus : 30 April 2019,Earnings and Selective Play
(views 434)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways to build up its base as the market focus remains at the real sectors earnings results,more of which will be released in the next 1-2 weeks. Today, investors should keep an eye on U.S. - China trade talks, which are about to be wrapped up. In this regard, the market continues to expect both parties to
reach a deal in May. Given all that, we maintain our call for investors to continue to place selective bets. Also, there is a chance that the SET will continue to rally in the next two months after official elections results and the MSCIs review.
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29
April
2019
Daily Focus : 29 April 2019,Earnings and Selective Play
(views 469)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways to build up its base. In this regard, the energy sector might somewhat put pressure on the market after crude began to turn to tumble. However, we expect the Thai main index to see support from above-estimate U.S. GDP and lowerthan-expected PCE inflation. Given that, the Fed should continue its policy
easing. Meanwhile, the market focus will remain on the real sectors earnings performance. Furthermore, the market will wait for clarity on domestic politics. In this regard, we continue to recommend our investors to be selective in the near term. After which, we expect the SET to continue to rally in the next two months after official elections results and the MSCIs review.
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26
April
2019
Daily Focus : 26 April 2019,Earnings and Selective Play
(views 449)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways since investment sentiment might be capped the fall in U.S. equity market.However, the market focus, which we believe to have more weight, will be on the real sectors earnings results, more of which will come in next week. Moreover, the market will wait for clarity for domestic politics. In this regard, we continue to bet on earnings results in the near term. However,we believe that the SET will continue to rally in the next two months after official election results and the MSCIs review.
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25
April
2019
Daily Focus : 25 April 2019,Earnings and Selective Play
(views 445)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways to build up its base. Today, domestic politics continues to have a factor that needs monitoring. Specifically, Election Commission will visit Office of the Ombudsman to clarify over election nullification complaint. Other than that,the market will also focus on the real sectors earnings results, more of which will come in shortly. In this regard, we continue to bet on earnings results in the near term. However, we believe that the market will continue to rally in the next two months after official election results and thanks to the MSCIs review.
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23
April
2019
Daily Focus : 23 April 2019,Bet on earnings and energy plays
(views 415)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways to sideways up. In this regard, we expect the energy sector to outperform the market as crude surged after the U.S. moved to stop all nations from buying Iranian oil. Moreover, we expect the energy sector to report strong 1Q19 earnings results. This week, domestic politics will play a more important role. In particular, the EC will consider a case where the Future Forward Party Leader is accused to violate the law by holding a stake in a media company while running for election. In addition, the Constitutional Court will rule on how to calculate party-list MP on April 24. Given that, we believe laggard stocks will move stronger than the market after the SET has rallied by over 3% in the past one month.
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22
April
2019
Daily Focus : 22 April 2019,Bet on laggard earnings play
(views 494)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways after banks 1Q19 earnings results are mostly in line. This morning, investors should monitor March exports. In addition, we expect politics to turn to play an important role once again. In particular, the Constitutional Court will rule on how to calculate party-list MPs on April 24. In this regard, we continue to
focus on stocks with strong 1Q19 profit outlook, particularly laggard ones after the SET has rallied by over 3% in the past month or so.
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19
April
2019
Daily Focus : 19 April 2019,Bet on laggard earnings play
(views 441)
We expect the SET to move sideways. In general, results of the banks that have reported their 1Q19 earnings are mostly in line. Although some miss our estimate, they are still in tandem with the street forecast. Meanwhile, there is a supporting factor, i.e. U.S. retail sales in March, which came in strong and hit its high in over one and a half year.Since we believe the market will focus on earnings season at this time, we continue to recommend that our investors bet on laggard stocks with strong 1Q19 earnings outlook after the SET has rallied by over 3.5% in the past one month.
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18
April
2019
Daily Focus : 18 April 2019,Bet on selective earnings play
(views 401)
We expect the SET to move sideways after it has rallied to test its key resistance of 1,675-1,680. Key factors that will lead the index include listed companies 1Q19 earnings results which will start with banks today. If it does not come in lower than expected, we believe that it will help create confidence for investors. After which, it will be the real sectors turn, which will help support the index to continue to rally. In this regard,we recommend that our investors bet on stocks with strong 1Q19 profit outlook because we expect them to outperform the market.
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17
April
2019
Daily Focus : 17 April 2019, Earnings and Selective Play
(views 435)
We expect the SET to move sideways to sideways up, supported by Chinas additional liquidity injection. Nonetheless, we expect the market to begin to pay more attention to 1Q19 earnings season, which will serve as a leading indicator. It will start tomorrow with the banking sector. In this regard, we expect stocks with strong 1Q19 profit outlook to be
a target for speculation and outperform the market. This morning, there is one key factor that needs monitoring, i.e. Chinas 1Q19 GDP. In this regard, the market expects it to increase by 6.3% Y-Y.
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12
April
2019
Daily Focus : 12 April 2019,Selective and Earnings Play
(views 439)
We expect the SET to move sideways amid weak trading volume before the Songkran holiday. In the next two weeks, there is a factor that needs monitoring, i.e. the U.S. - China trade talks, which the market hopes for an agreement. Looking ahead, we expect the market to pay attention to 1Q19 earnings results after Songkran. In this regard, we expect stocks with specific catalysts and strong 1Q19 profit outlook to outperform the market at this time.
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11
April
2019
Daily Focus : 11 April 2019,Selective Play
(views 430)
We expect the SET to move sideways to sideways up after the EU has agreed to extend Brexit deadline to October 31, 2019.Moreover, both the FED and the ECB signaled that they would maintain their policy rate throughout this year. On the U.S. - China trade talks, there continue to be positive developments. In addition, international funds continued to flow into the region. Hence, its possible that the SET will climb to test its previous high of 1,675 at this time.
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10
April
2019
Daily Focus : 10 April 2019,Selective Play
(views 434)
We expect the SET to move sideways down due to dull investment sentiment after the IMF has revised down its global GDP forecast for 2019 from 3.5% to 3.3% to factor in trade war risk, the Feds tight monetary policy, and Brexit. In this regard, we believe there will be selling in the global play in the near term after their strong rally yesterday. In addition, we view that stocks with specific catalyst and robust 1Q19 profit outlook will outperform the market.
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09
April
2019
Daily Focus : 9 April 2019,Selective buy and bet on energy play
(views 464)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways amid persistently weak trading volume as Thailand is about to have another long holiday. In this regard, we expect the energy sector to lead the market after crude continues to rally. This week, there are important factors that need monitoring. They include an extension to Brexit deadline from April 12. Looking ahead, we believe the markets movement will be limited in the next 1-2 weeks. Moreover, we view that stocks with specific factors and strong 1Q19 profit outlook will outperform the market at this time.
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05
April
2019
(views 532)
We expect the SET to move sideways to sideways up,supported mainly by optimism over the U.S. - China trade talks after President Trump said that he expected a conclusion within the next four weeks. Looking ahead, there is a factor that needs monitoring, i.e. an extension of Brexit deadline from April 12. However, we expect the SETs movement and trading volume to limit at this time as Thailand enters its holiday period. In this regard, we view that stocks with specific catalyst and strong 1Q19 profit outlook will be safe and outperform the market.
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04
April
2019
Daily Focus : 4 April 2019,Selective buy
(views 443)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways,waiting for progress from the U.S. - China trade talks. According to the latest information, the two countries are close to striking a deal. In Europe, Brexit remains highly uncertain. In particular, the U.K. needs to turn to negotiate with the EU one more time to extend the deadline from April 12 after its parliament is unable to find a solution. In Thailand, there is no progress in politics. Specifically, all still have to wait for official election results from the Election Commission. In this regard, we view that stocks with specific catalyst and strong 1Q19 profit outlook will outperform the market at this time.
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03
April
2019
Daily Focus : 3 April 2019,Bet on energy and selective plays
(views 456)
We expect the SET to move sideways to sideways up, led by the energy sector after crude continues to increase. Moreover, the market remains optimistic over a positive development from the U.S. - China trade talks, which will continue on Wednesday. However, investors need to keep an eye on key factors. In particular, Brexit remains highly uncertain. In
Thailand, we still have to wait for official election results from the Election Commission. However, we expect the Thai equity market to see support from international funds which flow into the country due to the rise in Thailands weight in the MSCI EM.
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02
April
2019
Daily Focus : 2 April 2019,Bet on global play
(views 487)
We expect the SET to move sideways up thanks to investment sentiment which continued to ease after both U.S. and China economic data were strong. Moreover, their trade talks positively developed over the weekend. Given that, the market has a more positive view toward the global economy. Whats more, crude continued to increase. In Thailand,
election results and forming of a new government remain largely uncertain.Since we expect them to serve as an overhang, at least for a while, we believe that global play will outperform the market in the near term.Besides the global play, we like the securities that MSCI will increase their weight and remain a laggard
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01
April
2019
Daily Focus : 1 April 2019,Bet on MSCI play
(views 483)
We expect the SET to move in positive territory thanks to the followings. First, investment sentiment gets brighter after there have been positive developments from the latest round of the U.S. - China trade talks. Second, WTI surged to trade above US$60 per barrel. Third, MSCI has agreed to include NVDR into its calculation. As a result, Thailands weight in the MSCI EM will increase from 2.5% to 3%. Moreover, we expect international funds to flow into the country. In this regard, we expect the stocks, that their weight in the MSCI will increase, to outperform the market.
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29
March
2019
Daily Focus : 29 March 2019,Bet on domestic play
(views 441)
Although there is optimism over the U.S. - China trade talks, concerns over global economic slowdown and unstable politics continue to put pressure on the Thai equity market. Nonetheless, we expect the SET to move within a wider range today thanks to window dressing and speculation on the stocks that are anticipated to have their weight increase by MSCI. They comprise INTUCH, DTAC, RATCH, and CENTEL.
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28
March
2019
Daily Focus : 28 March 2019,Continue to park cash in defensive dividend play
(views 455)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways to sideways down with a wide range due to concerns over trade wars and global economic slowdown. Moreover, there are uncertainties, including Brexit after there is yet to be a solution from the U.K. parliament last night. In Thailand, investors need to continue to monitor election results from the Election Commission tomorrow as well as the competition to form a government, which will take more time before there is clarity. In this regard, we continue to view that defensive stocks with a high dividend yield are safe and will outperform the market at this time.
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27
March
2019
Daily Focus : 27 March 2019,to bet on defensive dividend play
(views 464)
We expect the SET to continue to be volatile due to concerns over global economic slowdown. Moreover, there are uncertainties both domestically and internationally. In particular, investors will keep their eye on the U.S. - China trade wars as U.S. delegates visit to China this week.In Europe, Brexit remains directionless since its now uncertain if the U.K.
will leave the EU or stay after the U.K. parliament takes control of the Brexit process. In Thailand, we will closely monitor the competition to form a government, which is not an easy task. In this regard, we view that defensive stocks with a high dividend yield will outperform the market at this time.
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26
March
2019
Daily Focus : 26 March 2019,Continue to park cash in defensive dividend play
(views 545)
We expect the SET to swing wildly due to political uncertainties after both the Pheu Thai and Palangpracharath Parties compete to form a government since it might result in a political deadlock.Internationally, the U.K. parliament voted to seize control of Brexit process from Prime Minister Theresa May. In this regard, there is a chance for a new referendum. Meanwhile, the concerns over global economic slowdown continue to pressure. Given high domestic and international uncertainties, we view that defensive stocks with a high dividend will outperform the market at this time.
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25
March
2019
Daily Focus : 25 March 2019,Domestic and defensive plays
(views 518)
Although sharply fall in inverted yield curve stokes fears of an economic recession, we expect the SET to respond positively after the Palang Pracharath party gained seats more than expected. There is high hope that the Palang Pracharath party will ally with mid- to small-parties including Phoom Jai Thai party to form new government. This case will be good for the continuity of policies. We view that domestic plays is more interesting than global plays.
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22
March
2019
Daily Focus : 22 March 2019,Bet on defensive domestic play
(views 421)
We expect the SET to move sideways up thanks to investment sentiment which looks eased. However, we expect gain to limit to 1,640 as the market waits for clarity over this coming Sundays general elections. Internationally, the EU has lately agreed to extend the Brexit deadline. However, the period of extension will depend on the U.K. parliaments vote on this matter next week. In this regard, we continue to view that the domestic play is attractive, particularly defensive ones.Specifically, we expect it to outperform when the market is waiting for clarity on a number of issues.
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21
March
2019
Daily Focus : 21 March 2019,Accumulate domestic play
(views 462)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways.Although the FOMC signaled no rate hike this year, the Committee trimmed its GDP forecast. This reflects their view that the economy was hit by trade wars. Looking ahead, investors have to keep an eye on Brexit clarity next week. To elaborate, the U.K. parliament will vote on a third Brexit deal.Moreover, we have to see if the EU will approve an extension to the Brexit deadline or not. In this regard, we continue to view that the domestic play remains attractive thanks to post-election governments policies.
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20
March
2019
Daily Focus : 20 March 2019,Selective Buy
(views 444)
We expect the SET to move sideways after it increased quite sharply yesterday. Today, keep an eye on an FOMC meeting, at which we expect the Fed to signal a delay in its rate hike. However, we expect upside to be limited due to Brexit which remains highly uncertain as it is getting closer to its deadline. In Thailand, we still need to wait for clarity from the general elections over the number of seats in each political party. In this regard, we view that the domestic play which decreased lately is attractive for investment and believe the global play will continue to provide strong support in the near term.
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19
March
2019
Daily Focus : 19 March 2019,Bet on Energy Play
(views 491)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways due to lack of fresh catalysts. Throughout this week, there will be several factors that need monitoring. They comprise an FOMC meeting (where the market expects policy rate to be maintained), and Brexit (which is getting closer to its deadline). In Thailand, the countrys general elections are unable to
provide support for the SET as in the past due to political parties policies. In addition, its likely that no party will win a majority. Given that, we expect
the energy sector to outperform the market in the near term after crude continues to increase.
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18
March
2019
Daily Focus : 18 March 2019,Continue to bet on domestic play
(views 532)
We expect the SET to move sideways. Although broad investment sentiment looks relaxed, we believe that foreign investors selling will continue to put a cap on the indexs increase. This week, there are factors that need monitoring. They include Brexit (a third vote and a negotiation with the EU to extend the deadline) and the U.S. - China trade talks, which were reported to be close to an agreement. In this regard, we continue to view that the domestic play will outperform the global play thanks to Thailands general elections which will take place this weekend.
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15
March
2019
Daily Focus : 15 March 2019,Continue to bet on domestic play
(views 537)
We expect the SET to move sideways as the market continues to monitor a number of factors. In particular, they will keep a close eye on the U.S. - China trade negotiations after
President Trump lately said that there would be a conclusion in the next 3-4 weeks. On Brexit, the U.K. will submit a request to extend its deadline to the EU next week after its parliaments approval.Meanwhile, FTSE will increase its weight for Thai equity today. We believe that this will help somewhat support the market. Given that,we recommend our investors to continue to bet on the domestic play.
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14
March
2019
Daily Focus : 14 March 2019,Selective Buy. Continue to hold current positions.
(views 515)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways up thanks to investment sentiment which is more relaxed after the U.K. parliament voted to reject its departure from the EU without a deal. As a result, its anticipated that there will be a vote to extend the deadline of the countrys departure on March 29, in line with Section 50 tonight. Meanwhile, we expect the FTSEs increase of Thai equities exposure, which will become effective on March 15, to support the SET. In this regard, we expect the global play to perform better and the domestic play to remain strong.
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13
March
2019
Daily Focus : 13 March 2019,Continue to bet in domestic play
(views 514)
We expect the SET to move sideways to sideways down thanks to investment sentiment which looks more negative after the U.K. parliament has rejected an improved Brexit deal.
Given that, investors need to continue to monitor on this matter because the U.K. parliament will meet in the next 1-2 days to consider if the country will leave the EU without a deal or delay its departure on March 21. In general, this makes the uncertainty to remain high and might have negative impacts on both the U.K. and eurozone economies, both of which are rather weak. In this regard,we continue to focus our investment in the domestic play thanks to our domestic politics and economy which seem to be more stable.
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12
March
2019
Daily Focus : 12 March 2019,Continue to bet on domestic play. Wait to accumulate at around 1,600.
(views 503)
We expect the SET to move sideways up thanks to investment sentiment which is brighter after the U.K. has secured a legally binding change from the EU, which improves its Brexit deal,particularly on the backstop issue. However, investors still need to monitor the U.K. parliaments vote tonight whether they will take the improved agreement or not. Given that, we expect the global play to perform better and the domestic play to remain strong thanks to Thailands general elections which are closer.
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11
March
2019
Daily Focus : 11 March 2019,Continue to be on domestic plays. Wait to accumulate at around 1,600.
(views 477)
We expect the SET to move sideways because broad investment sentiment continues to be pressured by concerns over global economic slowdown after the latest U.S. employment
data came in sharply lower than expected. Moreover, there will be one key factor that needs monitoring tomorrow, i.e. the U.K. parliaments vote on a Brexit deal. If it does not pass, this will reiterate the eurozones weak economy. In this regard, we view that the domestic will outperform the global play due to Thailands politics and general elections after they have become clearer.
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08
March
2019
Daily Focus : 8 March 2019,Selective buy. Wait to accumulate at around 1,600.
(views 497)
We expect the SET to move sideways down thanks to investment sentiment which is negative after the ECB has cut its economic and inflation forecasts for the eurozone. This results in market concern over a global economic slowdown. Nonetheless, we expect the SET to outperform its regional peers due to domestic politics. In particular, Thai politics has become clearer after the Constitutional Courts ruling yesterday. Moreover, there is a chance that the ECBs LTRO III will support funds to flow into emerging markets in the future.
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07
March
2019
Daily Focus : 7 March 2019,Wait to accumulate at around 1,600
(views 528)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways down as global investment sentiment continues to lack fresh catalyst to provide support. Moreover, the Thai main index has rallied in the past two months to reflect optimism over the U.S. - China trade talks. Today, investors should continue to keep an eye on domestic factor, i.e. the Constitutional Courts ruling on Thai Raksa Chart Partys dissolution case, since it will have an impact on confidence and political sentiment. Meanwhile, international funds continue to stream out. This will pressure the SET to continue to decrease.
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06
March
2019
Daily Focus : 6 March 2019,Accumulate on weakness and hold
(views 493)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways as the market keeps its eye on the U.S. - China trade talks whether both parties are close to strike a deal as the news said they were or not. In Thailand, there are a number of factors that need monitoring, i.e. an investigation into Future Forward Party and the Constitutional Courts ruling on Thai Raksa Chart Partys dissolution case. Both of them will have an impact on political confidence and tension. Meanwhile, international funds continue to stream out. As a result, we expect the SETs gain to limit at this time.
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05
March
2019
(views 608)
We continue to expect the SET to move sideways to sideways down due to international funds which still look set to stream out of Thailand. Nonetheless, we expect market retreat to
be more limited since the energy sector will provide support after crude begins to increase. In addition, there is optimism over the U.S. - China trade talks after there is news that they are close to strike a deal shortly. In this regard, we believe the SET will see a rebound in the near term. However, investors need to continue to keep an eye on the Constitutional Courts ruling on Thai Raksa Chart Partys dissolution case tomorrow, which will have an impact on domestic political sentiment.
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04
March
2019
Daily Focus : 4 March 2019,Accumulate on weakness and hold
(views 438)
We continue to believe that the SET will see a technical rebound in the near term after the index has decreased for two days in a row. In this regard, we see a support at 1,635. This
morning, investment sentiment continues to ease after there was news that the U.S. and China were in their last step to strike a trade deal. Nonetheless, we still need to keep monitoring one domestic factor, i.e. the Constitutional Courts ruling on Thai Raksa Chart Partys dissolution case because it might have an impact and increase political risk.
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01
March
2019
Daily Focus : 1 March 2019,Selective Buy
(views 564)
We expect the SET to see a technical rebound after the U.S. 4Q18 GDP comes in higher than expected. In Thailand,listed companies 4Q18 aggregate earnings (excluding the energy
sector) are not significantly lower than expected. Moreover, we expect the general elections that are due to take place late this month to serve as a key driver and there is optimism that the U.S. and China will strike a deal. Given that, we view recent market retreats as temporary. After which, we believe the market will be able to turn to rally in the future.
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28
February
2019
Daily Focus : 28 February 2019,Selective buy
(views 473)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways to sideways down, pressured by investment sentiment which is not very bright. Specifically, India and Pakistan clashed. Moreover, the U.S. trade representative said that China must do more than purchases of U.S. goods. In this regard, it will take time before they will strike a deal. However, the market still finds some relief and support, including the Feds testimony which reiterated a slow rate hike and possible adjustment to the unwinding of its balance sheet this year. Moreover, crude surged. This helps the energy sector to provide support for the market. In Thailand, investors still need to keep a close eye on Thai Raksa Chart Partys dissolution case on March 7.
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27
February
2019
Daily Focus : 27 February 2019,Selective buy
(views 436)
We expect the SET to move sideways. Today,there are factors that need close monitoring. They include the Constitutional Courts hearing on a dissolution case of Thai Raksa Chart Party and public prosecutors meeting with leaders of Future Forward Party. On the international front, President Trump will meeting North Korea leader Kim Jong Un today, while the U.K.parliament will vote on a draft Brexit deal on March 12. If they are not in favor of the said deal, they will also vote to either extend th deadline of March 29 or leave the EU without a deal. Nonetheless,there is a factor that makes the market feel somewhat relaxed.Specifically, the Fed chief has signaled policy easing and might
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26
February
2019
Daily Focus : 26 February 2019,Bet on earnings play
(views 450)
We expect the SET to move sideways in the near term after the index broke its resistance of 1,670 thanks to the U.S.- China trade talks which showed positive development. However,
we expect the energy sector to weigh on the market after crude tumbled by over 3% overnight. This week, there continues to be factors that need monitoring. To elaborate, there is a U.S. - North Korea summit and the Fed Chairs testimony before Congress. In Thailand, investors should continue to keep an eye on general elections. In particular, the Constitutional Court will hear a dissolution case of Thai Raksa Chart Party, while public prosecutor will meet leaders of Future Forward Party tomorrow. In this regard, we continue to recommend that our investors selectively buy stocks with strong 4Q18 profit outlook.
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25
February
2019
Daily Focus : 25 February 2019,Bet on earnings play
(views 591)
We expect the SET to trade up to test 1,670 thanks to investment sentiment which is quite bright after there were reports that the U.S. - China trade talks significantly progressed. In addition, President Trump confirmed that he would move the deadline to impose tariffs on Chinese imports out from March 1. In Thailand, investors have to keep an eye on the
Constitutional Courts hearing on a dissolution case of Thai Raksa Chart Party. In this regard, we continue to view that the global play will continue to lead the market. In addition, we recommend that investors continue to selectively buy stocks with strong profit outlook.
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22
February
2019
Daily Focus : 22 February 2019,Bet on earnings play
(views 434)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways as the market continues to monitor the U.S. - China trade negotiations. Meanwhile, most of the Thai energy stocks reported
below-estimate earnings due to stock loss. As a result, there might be selling, which will pressure the index. However, the countrys real sector posted mostly in-line results. In this regard, we recommend that our investors make selective bets on stocks with strong profit outlook at this time because they should be able to outperform the market.
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21
February
2019
Daily Focus : 21 February 2019,Bet on earnings play
(views 470)
We expect the SET to move sideways to sideways up. To elaborate, we expect the global play to continue to lead the market in line with crude which increased. Moreover, there is optimism over the U.S. - China trade talks. Although minutes of the FOMC meeting showed that the Fed saw headwind to economic growth, that also prompted the U.S. central bank to be patient in raising rates and to be ready for policy easing. In Thailand, the real sectors earnings (which do not include the energy sector) that have been out are broadly in line with our estimate.
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20
February
2019
Daily Focus : 20 February 2019,Bet on earnings plays. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 458)
We expect the SET to move sideways as the market waits for the U.S. - China trade talks which will continue this week in Washington. In this regard, the index will see support from
the likelihood that President Trump will extend the deadline to hike tariffs on Chinese imports from March 1 if a deal is close to being reached. This week, more earnings will be released. In this regard, we expect speculation in the stocks that are anticipated to report strong earnings. Moreover, we expect the global play to continue to outperform the market.
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18
February
2019
Daily Focus : 18 February 2019,Bet on earnings and laggard plays
(views 560)
We expect the SET to bounce back to test 1,645-1,650 after the index turned to decrease to its support of 1,635 once again. Meanwhile, investment sentiment looks more relaxed after
the U.S. and China will continue their trade talks this week. In addition, there is a chance the planned tariffs hike on Chinese imports on March 1 will be postponed for 60 days, while the U.S. is able to avert its second government shutdown. In Thailand, investors should keep an eye on Thailands 4Q18 GDP, which is due out today. Moreover, more corporate earnings will be released. In this regard, we view that global play will continue to outperform the market at this time.
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15
February
2019
Daily Focus : 15 February 2019,Bet on earnings and laggard plays. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 454)
We expect the SET to move sideways down after the U.S.s retail sales in December 2018 came in substantially lower than expected. Given that, there were concerns over global
economic slowdown. However, we believe the market remains hopeful about the U.S. - China trade talks, which is held today.Moreover, there is a chance that President Trump will extend China tariffs deadline from March 2. In Thailand, investors need to keep an eye on the Constitutional Courts hearing on a dissolution case over Thai Raksa Chart party on February 27. Given that, we view a market retreat as an opportunity to buy stocks back. In the near term, we recommend that investors bet on stocks with strong 4Q18 profit outlook.
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14
February
2019
(views 475)
We expect the SET to trade up to test 1,660-1,665 one more time thanks to market optimism over the U.S. -China trade talks during these two days that they will reach an agreement. This will determine the indexs future direction.Moreover, President Trumps strong stance on his Mexican wall has eased. Specifically, he said that a shutdown would be terrible. In
Thailand, investors still need to keep an eye on a dissolution of Thai Raksa Chart party. In general, we view that global play will continue to outperform the market for now. In addition, we view market retreat as an opportunity to accumulate stocks back after our call for investors to lock in short-term profit last week.
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13
February
2019
Daily Focus : 13 February 2019, Bet on earnings and global plays. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 491)
We maintain our view that the SET will move in positive territory, supported by optimism after Democratic and Republican congressional negotiators have been able to reach a deal
to avert a U.S. government shutdown. However, since the agreement does not "do the trick" that President Trump has promised, it remains uncertain if he will agree to it. Although a U.S. government shutdown remains a risk, President Trump might extend the deadline to impose higher duty on Chinese imports, which is set on March 2. This has relaxed investment sentiment. In this regard, we expect the global play to turn to outperform the market at this time.
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12
February
2019
Daily Focus : 12 February 2019, Bet on laggard and defensive plays. Accumulate back on weakness.
(views 436)
We expect the SET to continue to move lower after the index has considerably rallied since mid-January. Looking ahead, investors need to continue to keep an eye on international
factors, including trade wars and Brexit as its closer to the deadline in March. On the domestic front, political risks begin to increase. Hence, we view that laggard and defensive counters will outperform the market at this time.
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11
February
2019
Daily Focus : 11 February 2019,Bet on laggard and defensive plays
(views 497)
We expect the SET to continue to move lower after the index has considerably rallied since mid-January. Looking ahead, investors need to continue to keep an eye on international factors, including trade wars and Brexit as its closer to the deadline in March. On the domestic front, political risks begin to increase.Hence, we view that laggard and defensive counters will outperform the market at this time.
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08
February
2019
Daily Focus : 8 February 2019,Bet on earnings and domestic plays. Accumulate back on weakness.
(views 521)
We expect the SET to move down due to investment sentiment which is rather negative. To elaborate, the market continues to keep an eye on the U.S. - China trade talks and Brexit whether there can be a conclusion within the deadline in March or not. Moreover, its expected that the energy sector will drag the market after crude decreased. However, we expect the domestic play to outperform the market thanks to the upcoming general elections. In addition, we view that the market will retreat only to turn to increase. Hence, we recommend our investors accumulate fundamental stocks back on weakness after our recommendation to sell some to lock in short-term profit.
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07
February
2019
Daily Focus : 7 February 2019,Bet on earnings and domestic plays. Sell some into strength to lock in short-term profit.
(views 549)
We expect the SET to move sideways. Today,there are key factors that need monitoring, i.e. Brexit talks between the U.K. and the EU. In Thailand, more 4Q18 earnings reports are
due out. However, we view that the SETs upside begins to limit after the index has rallied by over 100 points or about 5% in less than one month. Hence, we expect pressure from selling in the near term. Nonetheless, we continue to have a bullish view in the mid to long term thanks to Thailands general elections and international fund inflows.
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06
February
2019
Daily Focus : 6 February 2019,Bet on earnings and domestic plays. Sell into strength to lock in short-term profit.
(views 466)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways while waiting for President Trumps State of the Union Address this morning. In Europe, the U.K. and the EU will meeting to discuss
Brexit on Thursday. In Thailand, we expect the MPC to maintain policy rate today. Since the SET has increased by more than 5% since mid-January, which is rather fast, we expect pressure from profit taking in the near term. However, we maintain our bullish view in the medium to long term thanks to Thailands general elections and the countrys robust economic outlook.
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05
February
2019
Daily Focus : 5 February 2019,Bet on earnings and domestic plays
(views 555)
The SET should move within a narrow range amid weak trading volume throughout the Lunar New Year. Although investment sentiment remains positive after a large number of candidates registered for the general elections yesterday, the Thai main index has rallied by over 100 points from its trough at the end of last year. As a result, it might somewhat retreat. However, it will continue to be a retreat amid the indexs upward movement. On fund flow, international funds still look set to continue to stream into the region.
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04
February
2019
Daily Focus : 4 February 2019,Bet on earnings and domestic plays
(views 423)
The SET is still on its upward path. However, the index might retreat along the way. The energy sector looks set to turn to lead the market in line with crude which rallied by 2.7%.
Todays investment sentiment is relaxed after U.S. jobs data in January came in stronger than expected. U.S. dollar and bond yield do not change much. In Thailand, the Baht might appreciate at a slower rate until the MPC meets after there have been views that the Thai currency appreciation is too fast. In this regard, we expect international funds to continue to stream into the region.
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01
February
2019
Daily Focus : 1 February 2019,Bet on earnings and domestic plays
(views 499)
The SET is likely to move within range while waiting for new catalysts after more earnings results are out in the middle of this month and for results from the U.S. - China trade talks. However, funds look set to continue to stream into the region,while the Baht, the strongest currency in the region, is still likely to continue to appreciate.
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31
January
2019
Daily Focus : 31 January 2019,Bet on earnings and domestic plays
(views 402)
The SET is likely to continue to rally after the Fed sent more easing signals. Worth mentioning, the FOMC said it would be patient in its rate hikes and would not rush to reduce the
size of its balance sheet. Meanwhile, the rise in crude price will help limit any downside for the energy sector and the market as a whole.In Thailand, there is no fresh catalyst. Since international funds continued to flow into the country, this will help support the SET to slowly increase.
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30
January
2019
Daily Focus : 30 January 2019,Bet on earnings and domestic plays
(views 423)
The SET is likely to continue to move sideways as markets wait for clarity from international factors, including an FOMC meeting, U.S. - China trade talks, and Brexit deal after the
U.K. parliament voted for renegotiation. Meanwhile, the rise in crude will help limit downside to the broad market because the energy sector currently weighs on the SET. In Thailand, SCC and PTTEP will report their earnings results today. If they do not come in lower than expected, this should help support international funds to flow into the country and help the SET to increase. In general, we continue to have a positive view of the SET. However, we believe the index is now in retreats to reduce its earlier heat.
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29
January
2019
(views 528)
The SET is likely to continue to move sideways as international factors turn to come into play. To elaborate, the Fed will meet today, the first for this round. In the U.K., the parliament
will vote on a new Brexit deal tonight. Sine U.S. earnings results came in lower than expected due to negative impacts from trade wars, this has triggered investor concerns. Although U.S. dollar depreciated, crude also decreased due to concerns that demand will be hit due to trade wars. In the U.S., the government has a budget enough to operate only until mid-February. In Thailand, there are not enough earnings results to draw investor attention. In the mid to long run, we continue to have a positive view of the Thai equity market thanks to economic momentum which continues to expand thanks to continued economic expansion and clear general elections.
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28
January
2019
Daily Focus : 28 January 2019,Bet on earnings and domestic plays
(views 505)
The SET looks likely to retreat amid its upward outlook. This week, there are a number of events that make investors cautious in their trading. Although the U.S. government shutdown has ended, its only temporary until February 15. Looking ahead, investors should continue to keep an eye on a Fed meeting on January 29-30 and the Feds statement over the interest rate hike outlook for this year. If the Fed reiterates its stance of a slow rate hike, the global equity sentiment will ease. Other than that, the U.K. parliament will vote on a
new draft Brexit deal on Tuesday, while the U.S. - China trade talks will be held on January 30-31. In Thailand, DTAC will announce its earnings results today, while SCC and PTTEP will deliver theirs on Wednesday.Although its widely anticipated that their earnings are not bright, if they do not come in lower than expected, they should not put pressure on their share price because they have been priced in. We continue to believe that international funds will flow into EMs due to the declining U.S. economic outlook.
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25
January
2019
Daily Focus : 25 January 2019,Bet on earnings and domestic plays
(views 508)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways to sideways up. In particular, we believe the domestic play will continue to serve as a key driver and lead the market thanks to the
clear general elections timeline. On the international front, there are uncertainties on both sides of the Atlantic, including the U.S. government shutdowns (according to the latest information, U.S. Senate continued to reject a draft budget bill), the U.S. - China trade talks, and Brexit. Given that, international funds look set to continue to stream into EMs.
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24
January
2019
Daily Focus : 24 January 2019,Bet on earnings and domestic plays
(views 493)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways to sideways up. In particular, we expect the domestic play to continue to lead the market after its now clear that general elections will be held on March 24. Given that, we will begin to see campaigns running. This will stimulate domestic spending to be more upbeat. On the international front, investors still need to keep an eye on the U.S. - China trade talks, the U.S. government shutdown which has last for over one month, and the U.K. parliaments vote on a draft Brexit deal late this month.
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23
January
2019
Daily Focus : 23 January 2019,Bet on earnings and domestic plays
(views 418)
We expect the SET to move sideways since it might be somewhat capped by investment sentiment which is not very bright. Worth mentioning, we still have to keep an eye on trade
wars whether there will be high-level trade talks between the U.S. and China at the end of this month or not. Moreover, the U.S. said they would like Huawei CFO to be extradited to face charges in the U.S. This puts pressure on international politics. Nonetheless, there is one domestic catalyst, i.e. a general election decree which is anticipated to be published shortly. When this happens, we expect it to help support the domestic play to outperform the market.
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22
January
2019
Daily Focus : 22 January 2019,Bet on earnings play
(views 524)
We expect the SET to move sideways. In the near term, the index continues to lack fresh catalysts to provide support. To elaborate, investors still have to keep an eye on trade
wars if there will be positive developments as anticipated earlier or not. Moreover, we still need to keep monitoring on the Brexit issue. According to the latest information, the U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May has proposed her "Plan B” to the Parliament. It will be considered and voted on January 29. In this regard, Theresa May does not support a no-deal. Moreover, she does not favor an extension to the U.K.s parting from the EU. Despite that, the continued net inflow should make it possible for emerging markets to outperform developed ones.
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21
January
2019
Daily Focus : 21 January 2019,Let profit run
(views 482)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways up. In particular, we expect the energy sector to lead the market after crude sharply rallied by over 3% thanks to a number of catalysts. Worth mentioning is decreased supply after OPECs production cut. Moreover, there were improved signals on trade wars after China proposed to import over US$1tn worth of U.S. products over the next six years and prepared to send a trade delegation to visit the U.S. late this month. In this regard, we expect the easing investment sentiment to help support
international funds to continue to flow into risk assets.
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18
January
2019
Daily Focus : 18 January 2019,Let profit run
(views 612)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways up after there were reports that the U.S. might ease its tariffs on Chinese imports during trade negotiations. Since investors begin to
be optimistic about Chinese delegations visit to the U.S. late this month, international funds continue to stream into risk assets. In this regard, we believe that funds will continue to flow into emerging markets at this time after they turn to be more attractive due to Chinas plan to a major round of economic stimulus.
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17
January
2019
Daily Focus : 17 January 2019,Continue to accumulate on weakness
(views 467)
We expect the SET to move sideways up,supported by the U.K. governments survival of a no-confidence vote by 325-306. Since the survival has provided Theresa May an opportunity to return to negotiate on a Brexit deal with the EU once again, investors are more at ease about this factor. However, there continues to be uncertainty over that issue. Moreover, the U.S. government shutdown continues to drag on, while China prepares a large round of economic stimulus. Given that, we expect international funds to continue to flow into emerging markets at this time.
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16
January
2019
Daily Focus : 16 January 2019,Continue to accumulate on weakness
(views 456)
We expect the SET to move sideways up thanks to the energy sector. Specifically, we expect it to lead the market after crude turned to sharply increase after China planned to introduce a large round of stimulus. Meanwhile, the British parliament voted against a Brexit deal by 432:202. As a result, there continues to be uncertainty over the U.K. politics and the countrys parting from the EU. In the U.S., the government shutdown continues. In this regard, we view that funds will stream into emerging markets at this time.
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15
January
2019
Daily Focus : 15 January 2019,Accumulate on weakness
(views 394)
We expect the SET to move sideways as the market continues to be weighed down by concerns over the global economy which slows due to negative impacts from trade wars. This
is seen from Chinese economic data which are rather poor. Tonight,there will be one key factor, i.e. the U.K. parliaments vote on a draft Brexit bill, which is highly unlikely to pass. In this regard, we expect the domestic play to outperform the global play at this time.
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14
January
2019
Daily Focus : 14 January 2019,Accumulate on Dip
(views 482)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways. In particular, we believe the Thai main index will not cross its key resistance of 1,600-1,610 as crude begins to retreat.This week, investors need to keep an eye on a number of key factors, particularly U.K. parliaments vote on a draft Brexit bill,which remains highly uncertain. In addition, the U.S. government
shutdown continues. This begins to have an impact on the economy.This morning, eye at Chinas trade balance.
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11
January
2019
Daily Focus : 11 January 2019,Accumulate back on weakness
(views 503)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways as the market begins to lack fresh catalysts to provide support. Next week, there will be key factors that need investors attention. To
elaborate, there will be a vote on a draft Brexit deal, which is not very popular. Moreover, the market will need to continue to keep an eye on U.S. - China trade talks and the U.S. government shutdown.Meanwhile, the Fed chair has expressed concerns over persistently high U.S. debts. Hence, we expect a market rally to be limited and there is a chance that the SET will somewhat retreat after it has considerably rallied in the past week.
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10
January
2019
Daily Focus : 10 January 2019,Accumulate back on weakness
(views 423)
We expect the SET to move sideways up thanks to minutes of the FOMC meeting which were more relaxed in terms of rate hikes. Moreover, the U.S. and China made progress in their
trade talks. In this regard, we expect the energy sector to continue to lead the market after crude surged. However, investors still need to keep a close eye on future high-level meetings between the two countries and a vote on a draft Brexit deal next week. As a result, we expect near-term gain to be limited. Moreover, there is a chance that the SET will decrease after the index has considerably rallied last week to factor in positive trade talks.
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09
January
2019
Daily Focus : 9 January 2019,Take short-term profit at 1,600 and hold mid- to long-term bets
(views 438)
We expect the SET to move sideways up thanks to optimism over the U.S. - China trade talks after in his latest move President Trump said that the talks went well. Meanwhile, crude
continued to rally. As a result, energy stocks will continue to lead the market. However, the SET has sharply increased and is now close to its psychological resistance of 1,600. Hence, there might be pressure from selling to lock in near-term profit. Despite that, we believe the index will be able to break the said resistance in the future since the valuation of Thai equities remains inexpensive. Whats more, we believe that a delay in Thailands general elections will have limited impact.
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08
January
2019
Daily Focus : 8 January 2019,Take short-term profit at 1,600 and hold mid- to long-term investments
(views 1,086)
We expect the SET to move sideways up thanks to optimism that there will be positive developments from U.S. - China trade talks after there were reports that both parties were
trying to find common ground. However, the SET has rebounded considerably and is now close to its key psychological level of 1,600.Hence, there might be pressure from selling to lock in near-term profit. Nonetheless, we still believe that the SET will continue to rally in the mid to long run thanks to its inexpensive valuations.
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07
January
2019
Daily Focus : 7 January 2019,Let profit run
(views 808)
We expect the SET to continue to climb in line with equity markets around the globe after the Fed Chairs latest statement signaled the U.S. central was ready for a prolonged policy
easing. This has eased market concern. Looking ahead, we suggest that investors keep an eye on the U.S. - China trade talks due to take place today and tomorrow if there will be any progress as the market has anticipated or not. On the local front, we believe that the delay in Thailands general election has limited impact. Given that, there is a chance the SET will continue to climb because the indexs valuation is inexpensive.
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04
January
2019
Daily Focus : 4 January 2019,Continue to stay in Domestic and Defensive Plays
(views 855)
The SET index is expected to trade lower to test 1,550 points following sharp declines in Wall Street markets overnight. Apple’s sales shortfall are signs that the US-China trade war is hitting US economy, rising fears of the global economic slowdown. Thailand election date will likely be delayed from Feb 24.We view that the impact to the stock market sentiment is limited as the date will be within May 9 deadline. We still recommend our investors to focus on domestic and dividend names.
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03
January
2019
Daily Focus : 3 January 2019,Stay in Domestic and Defensive Plays
(views 1,003)
We expect the SET to move cautiously sideways in a trading range with high volatility. December PMIs for several economies point to further slowdown globally. In additions, investors
are still waiting for the development of China-US trade talk and Brexit. For Thai stock market, although the election would delay but within the timeframe, we view that there should be limited impact to the stock market sentiment.
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02
January
2019
Daily Focus : 2 January 2019,Stay in Domestic and Defensive Plays
(views 538)
We expect the SET to move sideways with some positive signs of the ongoing China-US trade truce. However, market volatility is inevitable on concerns over US government shutdown,
and Brexit talk. Domestic plays with high dividend yields should outperform the market amid the possibility of delay of an election.
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28
December
2018
Daily Focus : 28 December 2018, Stay in Domestic and Defensive Plays
(views 570)
We expect the SET to move cautiously sideways with thin volume for the last trading day. Concerns over US government shutdown and US-China trade talk still pressure the market. Energy sector would come under pressure as oil prices retreat.
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27
December
2018
Daily Focus : 27 December 2018, Stay in Domestic and Defensive Plays
(views 475)
We expect the SET to rebound testing its resistance 1,570-1,575 following an overnight 5% surge in stocks on Wall Street. Energy stocks would lead the market as oil prices surged 8.7%. However, investors should be aware of congress vote over funding for a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border tonight.
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26
December
2018
Daily Focus : 26 December 2018,Stay in Domestic and Defensive Plays
(views 532)
We expect the SET to move sideways with thin volume ahead of holidays. Although several indicators suggest market is oversold, the rebound is, however, limited. Investors are waiting for senate to vote on border wall funding ending shutdown.We maintain focus on the domestic defensive plays with high dividends.
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25
December
2018
Daily Focus : 25 December 2018,Stay in Domestic and Defensive Play
(views 572)
We expect the SET to slip following Wall Street and regional markets responded fears of global economic slowdown,US government shutdown, Trump’s criticism on the Fed and diving
oil prices. However, thin trading volume, LTF/RMF funds, and speculation on window dressing would provide cushion to the SET. We maintain focus on the domestic defensive plays.
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24
December
2018
Daily Focus : 24 December 2018,Stay in Domestic and Defensive Play
(views 555)
We expect the SET to continue to be volatile,pressured by negative investment sentiment from US government shutdown and US-China trade discussions. Trading volume should be
thin ahead of holidays. Nonetheless, we maintain our view that the domestic defensive play will continue to outperform and provide support for the market at this time.
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21
December
2018
Daily Focus : 21 December 2018,Continue to bet on domestic defensive play
(views 535)
We expect the SET to continue to be volatile, pressured by negative investment sentiment. Internationally, there are uncertainties in the U.S. and China relationship which might get more tensed. This will have an impact on their trade talks. Moreover, there is a risk over the U.S. government shutdown after President Trump has threatened that he will not sign a stopgap spending bill if it does not include a budget to fund his Mexican wall. All exist while crude tumbled. Nonetheless, we maintain our view that the domestic defensive play will continue to outperform and provide support for the market at this time.
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20
December
2018
Daily Focus : 20 December 2018,Continue to bet on domestic defensive play
(views 584)
We expect the SET to decrease due to negative investment sentiment after the Fed has revised down its forecast for the U.S. GDP in 2018-2019. Moreover, it began to signal an economic slowdown, while trimming the outlook for an interest rate hike to two times next year (to 2.75-3%). However, we believe that crude which started to recover will provide support for the energy sector. In addition, we expect key domestic sectors, e.g. banks, commerce,ICT, and healthcare, to outperform the market, making it possible for the index to bounce back at this time.
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19
December
2018
Daily Focus : 19 December 2018,Continue to bet on domestic defensive play
(views 553)
We expect the SET to continue to be volatile. In this regard, we expect the energy sector to continue to put pressure on the market after crude sharply decreased by over 7%, while the domestic play is anticipated to outperform and to provide support for the market at this time. In particular, we expect banks to be strong if the MPC raises policy rate today, as expected. Tonight, we recommend our investors to keep a close eye on results from the last FOMC meeting for this year. In particular, investors should look for clues on the outlook for interest rate hikes in 2019 and pay attention to a dot plot. If the outlook eases, it will help support market sentiment.
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18
December
2018
Daily Focus : 18 December 2018,Buy domestic defensive play. Continue to bet on rebound.
(views 570)
We expect the SET to continue to be volatile.Moreover, there is a chance it will fall below the 1,600 level once more after investment sentiment is negative due to concerns over a global economic slowdown. Today, there are key factors that need close monitoring. They include Chinese President Xis speech at the 40th-anniversary celebration of reform, an MPC meeting, and an FOMC meeting in the middle of this week. In this regard, we view that domestic defensive stocks will outperform the market at this time. However, at the 1,585-1,600 level, the SET is undemanding in terms of both valuation and earning yield
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17
December
2018
Daily Focus : 17 December 2018,Bet on rebound at 1,600
(views 493)
We expect the SET to continue to be volatile. To elaborate, we believe the Thai main index will continue to be pressured by concerns over a global economic slowdown after a number of key economic indices in China and Europe hit their low in several years and came in lower than expected late last week.Whats more, its still needed to monitor if the U.S. - China trade wars will positively develop. However, we continue to view that at the 1,600 level the SET is attractive. We recommend a buyback after our call for investors to reduce their near-term portfolio early last week.
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14
December
2018
Daily Focus : 14 December 2018,Accumulate on weakness to 1,600
(views 549)
We expect the SET to continue to retreat to its key support of 1,600 once again as the market continues to eye closely on U.S. - China trade talks. Lately, there began to be more
positive signals that both parties were making efforts to reach a deal. Nonetheless, we expect a technical rebound in the near term after crude starts to increase. In this regard, we view market weakness to 1,600 as an attractive level to buy following our call for investors to reduce near-term portfolio at the beginning of this week.
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13
December
2018
Daily Focus : 13 December 2018,Continue to bet on domestic defensive play. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 567)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways. Moreover, there will be volatility due to uncertainties on foreign factors. However, investment sentiment looks more relaxed after there was news that China prepares a new policy that will replace the current “Made in China 2025” and make it easier for foreign products to enter the Chinese market. Whats more, Mrs.Theresa May survived a confidence vote. However, we continue to believe that it takes time before pressing factors will ease. Hence,we view that domestic counters will continue to outperform the market thanks to supports from domestic factors, particularly a general election.
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11
December
2018
Daily Focus : 11 December 2018,Continue to bet on defensive domestic play
(views 574)
We expect the SET to move sideways down. The energy sector will continue to weigh on the market because crude continues to fall due to concerns over a global economic slowdown.
The U.S. - China trade wars seem to intensify once again, while the U.K.s planned vote on a draft Brexit bill is postponed indefinitely. They all put pressure on global investment sentiment. Nonetheless,Thailands general election timeframe is getting clearer. Hence, we believe it will help support the domestic play to outperform the market.
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07
December
2018
Daily Focus : 7 December 2018,Continue to bet on domestic and defensive plays
(views 619)
We expect the SET to move sideways as the energy sector continues to weigh because crude tumbled after the OPEC was yet to reach a deal with Russia on output cut. In this regard, the meetings will continue today. Nonetheless, its anticipated that the Fed will slow its rate increase. In Thailand, its predicted that the countrys general election will get clearer at a
Cabinet-NCPO joint meeting today. This should help drive the domestic play and provide support for the SET, making it unlikely that the Thai index will fall sharply.
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06
December
2018
Daily Focus : 6 December 2018,Continue to bet on domestic and defensive plays
(views 596)
We expect the SET to decrease to test its support of 1,650-1,660 due to negative investment sentiment. In particular, U.S. yield curve was inverted. Moreover, there will be OPEC meetings tonight, where markets are all ears to hear if there is a deal to cut outputs. In Thailand, there is a key factor, i.e. a joint meeting between the Cabinet and the NCPO this Friday, where there will be clarity over an unlock of political activities. In this regard,we view that domestic and defensive counters will outperform the market at this time.
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04
December
2018
Daily Focus : 4 December 2018,Let profit run
(views 543)
We expect the SET to move sideways. Moreover,there might be selling to lock in near-term profit after the SET has sharply rallied by nearly 2% yesterday. Nonetheless, we believe that the Thai index will continue to move up, supported by domestic factors. They include LTF-RMF buying, the governments shopping stimulus, and most importantly, a joint meeting between the Cabinet, the NCPO, and political parties late this week, at which political activities are likely to be unlocked.
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03
December
2018
Daily Focus : 3 December 2018,Let profit run
(views 551)
We expect the SET to increase and break the 1,650 level thanks to investment sentiment which is bright after the trade talks between the U.S. and Chinese leader showed signs of
positive development. In particular, the U.S. will postpone its planned tariff hike from 10% to 25% from January 1, 2019, by 90 days. This paves way for talks to end their dispute. Given that,investor concerns ease. Moreover, it made crude begin to rise again this morning. Meanwhile, we expect December to see supports from a decline in foreign investors selling, LTF-RMF buying, the governments shopping stimulus, and an unlocking of political activities.
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30
November
2018
Daily Focus : 30 November 2018,Accumulate on dip and hold
(views 527)
We expect the SET to move sideways while waiting for informal talks between President Trump and President Xi at a G20 meeting whether there will be positive developments over
trade wars or not. Nonetheless, Thailands general election slowly progresses. In particular, its expected that political activities will be unlocked in December. This should help support the SET, particularly the domestic play, to continue to move up.
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29
November
2018
Daily Focus : 29 November 2018,Let profit run
(views 602)
We expect the SET to rise to test the 1,650 level thanks to investment sentiment which is bright. To elaborate, investors are more relaxed after the Fed chair has softened the central banks stance when he said that interest rates were currently just below the range Fed officials consider neutral. This differs from his speech made in October. Nonetheless, we continue
to view that trade talks between President Trump and President Xi at a G20 meeting late this week remains a key factor and market indicator. According to the latest information, there is news that President Trump is concerned over the lingering negative impacts of trade wars. Hence, there is a chance for a compromise with China in order to find a common ground.
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23
November
2018
Daily Focus : 23 November 2018,Bet on rebounds
(views 638)
We expect the SET to move sideways due to an absence of indicators after U.S. equity markets were closed.However, we view that the indexs key support of 1,585-1,600 is
strong and there is a chance the SET will rebound in the near term. However, it will not come in a V-Shape pattern. Looking ahead,there are factors that need monitoring. They include a meeting between U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi at the G20 summit scheduled in late November. In addition, there is an EU meeting this week to discuss Brexit.
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22
November
2018
Daily Focus : 22 November 2018,Bet on rebound
(views 569)
We expect the SET to rebound after the index continued to decrease in the last two weeks because its support of 1,595-1,600 is very strong. Meanwhile, crude begins to recover. In
this regard, we expect it to help provide support for the energy sector. However, we do not expect the market to rebound in a V-shape pattern, while the market waits for meetings and trade talks between President Trump and President Xi Jinping at a G20 meeting late this month. In addition, there will be an EU meeting during the weekend to discuss Brexit. According to the latest development, the EC has rejected Italys draft budget proposal once again.
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21
November
2018
Daily Focus : 21 November 2018,Bet on rebounds
(views 667)
We expect the SET to continue to decrease as investment sentiment remains negative. The Dow Jones Industrial Average continued to slide. Moreover, crude plunged by over 6%,
putting pressure on the energy sector and making them weigh on the market. However, we expect buyback momentum at the indexs key support of 1,585-1,600. Moreover, there are buying from LTF and RMF at the end of the year. Hence, there is a chance for a technical rebound in the near term. In this regard, we view that domestic and defensive plays will outperform the market.
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20
November
2018
Daily Focus : 20 November 2018,Accumulate on weakness
(views 678)
International factors continue to put a cap. They comprise U.S. - China trade disputes, Brexit, and Italys budget.However, we believe that the SETs movement will begin to outperform its regional peers. Although Thailands 3Q18 GDP comes in lower than expected due to exports, domestic demand showed continued strong growth momentum in both consumption and private investment. Moreover, crude started to steady, while property development counters began to see undemanding valuation and were about to turn around. In the U.S. and Japan, their sharp fall was attributed to specific factors.
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19
November
2018
Daily Focus : 19 November 2018,Earnings Play
(views 613)
Weak sentiment continues to pull back the SET. Pressures come from fresh political turmoil in the U.K., the ongoing uncertainties over US-China trade talk, and oil market sell-off. The
BOTs new rules to curb mortgage and property risks together with high probability of rate hike will pull back property share prices for a while. Today’s only good news is probably its 3Q18 GDP which consensus expects 4.2% growth, lower than 4.6% in 2Q18. Should the figure better than expected, it might help short term sentiment.
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16
November
2018
Daily Focus : 16 November 2018,Bet on earnings play
(views 576)
The SET is likely to continue to move sideways to build up its base before a new round of rallies. Although we expect the index to bounce back today in line with the bright investment
sentiment and crude which started to recover, it will be volatile,pressured by international factors. They comprise trade wars and Brexit talks. Together will make international funds continue to flee.In Thailand, 3Q18 earnings results are not bright. Nonetheless, we believe LTF/RMF will help support the SET.
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15
November
2018
Daily Focus : 15 November 2018,Bet on earnings play
(views 742)
The SET is likely to continue to move sideways to build its base as it continues to be pressured by foreign investorsselling in both equity and the Index Futures. Moreover, its capped by international factors since the global economy looks set to slow next year. In addition, we do not expect the EC to approve Italys budget proposal, whil fixing our eye on Brexit talks. In Thailand, 3Q18 earnings results are not bright. Furthermore, the MPCs signalfor a rate increase continues to have an impact on the property development sector. Nonetheless, we believe that buying in both LTF/RMF will be able to support the market late this year.
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14
November
2018
Daily Focus : 14 November 2018,Bet on earnings play
(views 630)
The SET is likely to continue to move sideways to build up a base, in line with foreign investors which continued to register a net sell position in equity and a net short position in the
Index Futures. Meanwhile, 3Q18 earnings results are not bright, as the market has anticipated. There are more downward revisions than upward. Whats more, there are factors that need monitoring in both Thailand and abroad. In Thailand, although we do not expect the MPC to increase policy rate at this time, we have to keep an eye on any signal whether the committee will hike policy rate at the next meeting or not. In Europe, Italy has submitted its budget proposal to the EC without any revision. This will be frown upon and,
eventually, rejected. However, there might be speculation on the additions made into the MSCI in this round.
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13
November
2018
Daily Focus : 13 November 2018,Stay on sidelines or bet on laggard play
(views 640)
The SET is likely to continue to decrease today due to pressure from a number of international factors. Besides a continued decline in crude, investors will continue to keep an eye on
Italys budget proposal which is due to be submitted to the EC, while Brexit talks continue. In the meantime, a number of mid- to smallsized consumer companies in both Thailand and abroad posted disappointing results and are being revised down. Although we continue to view that the SET will move up in the medium term, it remains volatile in the short run.
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12
November
2018
Daily Focus : 12 November 2018,Bet on laggard earnings play
(views 678)
We expect the SET to move sideways to sideways down as the fall in crude continues to put a cap on the energy sector and the SET, making it difficult for them to increase. However, we believe crude will rebound shortly. Moreover, there is a chance the SET will rally in the medium term after it moves sideways down.Supports will come mainly from domestic factors, e.g. a general election which is getting clearer after the unlock of political parties.Tomorrows night, we recommend our investors keep an eye on Italys new round of budget proposals to the EC.
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09
November
2018
Daily Focus : 9 November 2018,Bet on laggard earnings play and let profit run
(views 715)
We expect the SET to move sideways after the Fed maintained policy rate, as expected and signaled a rate increase next month. However, the energy sector might continue to put a cap on the market at this time after crude continued to tumble. Looking ahead, we believe crude is close to its bottom and there is a good chance it will rebound in the near term. In this regard, we maintain our bullish view toward the medium-term outlook and believe that the SET will continue to move up thanks to international funds which started to turn to stream into the country lately. Moreover, Thailand’s general election is now clearer. This should help create confidence for investors.
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08
November
2018
Daily Focus : 8 November 2018,Bet on laggard earnings play and let profit run
(views 634)
We expect the SET to increase thanks to investment sentiment which is positive and in line with our prior estimate. As U.S. midterm elections have passed, it reduces uncertainties in the market. Looking ahead, we expect no policy rate increase at this round of FOMC meetings. Moreover,international funds begin to stream into Asian lately. In this regard,we maintain our bullish view toward the SETs outlook in the medium to long run.
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07
November
2018
Daily Focus : 7 November 2018,Bet on laggard earnings play
(views 571)
We expect the SET to move sideways in the beginning as the market waits for official U.S. midterm elections results. Assuming the Democrats do not make a surprise by winning
in both houses, which will result in short-term panic selling, we believe the SET will be able to move up in the future as the market turns to pay more attention to Thailands fundamentals, and foreign funds will turn to stream into the country. In this regard, we continue to recommend that investors bet on laggard stocks with strong 3Q18 profit outlook because they should outperform the market at this time.
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06
November
2018
Daily Focus : 6 November 2018,Bet on laggard earnings play
(views 648)
We expect the SET to bounce thanks to investment sentiment which has eased after the indexs fall yesterday. However, we expect the gain to be limited as markets wait for results from the midterm elections in the U.S., which will become known tomorrows morning. When its clear (whichever way it is), we believe the SET will continue to rally. Till then, we believe laggard stocks with strong 3Q18 profit outlook will outperform the market.
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05
November
2018
Daily Focus : 5 November 2018,Bet on laggard earnings play
(views 638)
We expect the SET to move sideways down in the near term after the index has rallied by over 80 points in a week or so. In addition, we expect the energy sector to remain capped
after crude continued to decrease. This week, there are factors that need monitoring. They include midterm elections in the U.S. and an FOMC meeting (where we expect policy rate to be maintained).Looking ahead, we view that the SET will increase no matter what the U.S. election outcome is, similar to the previous U.S. elections and the Brexit. In this regard, laggard stocks that have a strong 3Q18 profit outlook will outperform the market.
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02
November
2018
Daily Focus : 2 November 2018,Bet on laggard earnings play
(views 670)
We expect the SET to move sideways up to test 1,675-1,680 thanks to investment sentiment which is positive thanks to President Trumps positive comment about trade talks with China which is anticipated to see positive developments at a G20 meeting at the end of this month. Given that, investor concerns decrease.Meanwhile, the Baht began to turn to appreciate. As a result, we expect international funds to stream out at a slower pace or turn to flow into Thailand in the near term. Looking ahead, there are factors that need monitoring, i.e. the real sectors 3Q18 earnings results and U.S. labor data in October which is due out tonight.
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01
November
2018
Daily Focus : 1 November 2018,Bet on laggard earnings play
(views 641)
We expect the SET to move sideways up thanks to positive momentum after the SET crossed its resistance of 1,665 yesterday. Moreover, investment sentiment continues to be relaxed.However, we expect the markets gain to be more limited. Looking ahead, we recommend our investors keep a close eye on the real sectors 3Q18 earnings results which will come in a lot in the next two weeks. If they do not come in weaker than expected, we believe the SET will continue to climb. In the near term, we view that a quick gain will serve as an opportunity to lock in profit.
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31
October
2018
Daily Focus : 31 October 2018,Bet on earnings play
(views 580)
We expect the SET to move sideways to sideways down. Although investment sentiment is positive, Chinas October PMI decreased and was below than the street forecast. Given that,
the concerns over the global economic slowdown after trade wars will continue to put pressure. Moreover, crude continued to decrease, putting a cap on the energy sector. As a result, we continue to believe that the SETs gain will limit to 1,645-1,655.Looking ahead, we view that the real sectors 3Q18 earnings results will have more weight and lead the indexs outlook.
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30
October
2018
Daily Focus : 30 October 2018,Bet on earnings play
(views 523)
We expect the SET to move sideways because there is no fresh catalyst to provide support. Moreover, pressure increases after the U.S. plans to impose tariffs on US$257bn worth of
remaining Chinese products, if the talks between the two countries fails. In this regard, we expect the indexs gain to limit at 1,645-1,655 at this time. Moreover, we believe the market will begin to focus on and give more weight to the real sectors 3Q8 earnings results, which will come in mostly in the next 2-3 weeks.
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29
October
2018
Daily Focus : 29 October 2018,Bet on domestic earnings play
(views 658)
We expect the SET to move sideways up this morning, in line with Asian equity markets, supported by easing pressure over U.S. policy rate hike after core PCE index increased lower than expected. However, we continue to believe that market rebound will limit to 1,655-1,660 at this time. Moreover, there is a chance the Thai main index will decrease after a number of negative factors continue to linger. They include the global economic outlook after the trade wars and Italys deficit budget. Whats more, we believe the market will keep an eye on the real sectors 3Q18 earnings results as more is about to be released.
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26
October
2018
Daily Focus : 26 October 2018,Bet on domestic earnings play
(views 579)
In the big picture, investment sentiment looks better after Wall Street sharply rebounded overnight. As a result, we expect the SET to continue to increase. However, we view that the
gain will be capped at 1,655-1,660 in the near term because we expect the market to remain volatile at this time. This is seen from the VIX index which is yet to return to its normal level. Looking ahead, we recommend investors keep an eye on key economic data in both the U.S. and China since they will reflect global economic growth. In Thailand, the real sector is about to disclose its 3Q18 earnings results.
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25
October
2018
Daily Focus : 25 October 2018,Continue to park cash in defensive dividend play
(views 547)
We expect the SET to fall to test 1,585-1,600 once again because investment sentiment is yet to be bright after Wall Street continued to tumble overnight due to concerns over global economic slowdown. Moreover, investors remain in their riskoff mode. However, the SET has decreased five days in a row by about 4.4%, making its valuation inexpensive. Furthermore, it technically begins to be in an oversold territory. Hence, we believe there will be a technical rebound in the near term.
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24
October
2018
Daily Focus : 24 October 2018,Continue to park cash in domestic defensive play
(views 632)
We expect the SET to open lower to test 1640-1,650 after global equity markets moved sharply lower yesterday,while Thailand was on holiday, pressured by concerns over Chinas
economy which slows due to trade wars. Moreover, there are tensions between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia and the EC has rejected Italys deficit budget of 2.4%. Nonetheless, Wall Street somewhat rebounded last night and clawed back some of its early losses.Whats more, the SET tumbled sharply and quickly in the last four trading days. Hence, there is a chance the Thai main index will recover in the near term. However, since the market is still in its risk-off mode, we continue to view that the domestic defensive play will be safer and outperform the market.
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22
October
2018
Daily Focus : 22 October 2018,Continue to bet on domestic and defensive plays
(views 562)
We expect the SET to continue to be pressured by persistently negative investment sentiment. Moreover, the market lacks fresh catalyst and continues to be pressured by international fund outflow. According to the latest information, the EU has requested that Italy clarifies its deficit budget and debt burden that do not decrease in tandem with the EUs rules within
today. In Thailand, the real sectors 3Q18 earnings results will be out in the next 2-3 weeks. Given that, we continue to believe the domestic and defensive plays will outperform the market.
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19
October
2018
Daily Focus : 19 October 2018,Continue to bet on domestic and defensive plays
(views 613)
We expect the SET to move down to test its key support near 1,665-1,670 once again due to negative investment sentiment after equity markets around the globe tumbled last night,
pressured by the strained U.S.-Saudi relation. In Europe, there was yet any progress over Brexit. In addition, there is a high chance that the EU will reject Italys budget. As a result, international funds flowed into safe-haven assets, i.e. gold and U.S. dollar which continues to appreciate. In this regard, we believe a domestic play will outperform a global one.
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18
October
2018
Daily Focus : 18 October 2018,Accumulate on weakness and hold
(views 696)
We expect the SET to move sideways down because we expect the energy sector to weigh after crude tumbled. Although minutes of the FOMC meeting signaled continued rate
increase, we view that the market has mostly priced in such factor.Moreover, no country manipulated its currency, according to the latest U.S. report which only put China on a watch list. In this regard, the market does not see any additional pressure. Looking ahead, the factor that needs monitoring remains Brexit talks and an EU approval of Italys deficit budget. In this regard, we continue to have a bullish view toward the SET in the mid to long run. In addition, we continue to focus on the domestic play.
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17
October
2018
Daily Focus : 17 October 2018,Let profit run
(views 693)
We expect the SET to increase thanks to investment sentiment which is bright after Wall Street surged to reflect above-estimate earnings results. In Thailand, more banks will also report their earnings today. In this regard, we expect their net profit to grow strong Y-Y. However, there continued to be key factors that need monitoring, particularly international ones. Worth mentioning is an EU summit over Brexit, interest rate hike signals from minutes of the FOMC meeting, and EUs deliberation of Italys draft deficit budget which is maintained at -2.4% of 2019 GDP. In the mid- to long-run, we stand by our bullish view toward the SET thanks to strong domestic factors.
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16
October
2018
Daily Focus : 16 October 2018,Accumulate domestic play and hold.
(views 587)
We expect the SET to move sideways as we begin to give more weight to 3Q18 earnings season. This week, more banks will report their earnings results. In general, we expect them to grow strong Y-Y. Although international factors will continue to put pressure on investment sentiment, while international funds continue to stream out, we view that the market has priced in such factors. Whats more, domestic factors remain strong. Hence, there is a chance that the SET will increase in the next four months before a general election takes place.
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12
October
2018
Daily Focus : 12 October 2018,Accumulate domestic play on weakness and hold.
(views 637)
We expect the SETs downside to begin to be limited. In particular, we see its key support at 1,665-1,670.Investment sentiment is yet to be bright. Although U.S. equity markets continued to fall, we view that its attributed to demanding valuations, which is their specific factor. Although international funds will flow into safe-haven assets in the near term, there is still a chance for a technical rebound. Such a strength will be supported by solid domestic factors. In particular, Thailands economy and politics are strong, while its valuation is
inexpensive.
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11
October
2018
Daily Focus : 11 October 2018,Accumulate domestic play on weakness and hold.
(views 633)
We expect the SET to fall to test the 1,700 level due to investment sentiment which is strongly negative after U.S. equity markets tumbled by over 3% due to pressing concerns over
policy rate hike. As a result, we expect international funds to continue to stream out to safe-haven assets, e.g. bonds. However,we view that the said factor is not new. In addition, the market has priced it in from the Dot Plot made at the Fed meeting last month.Hence, we view a fall will serve as an opportunity to buy fundamental stocks, particularly the domestic play, thanks to domestic factors. In particular, Thailand is stable in both its economy and politics.
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10
October
2018
Daily Focus : 10 October 2018,Bet on domestic and energy plays. Accumulate and hold.
(views 618)
We expect the SET to move sideways to build up base. Moreover, there is a chance the index will rebound because we view that the market has priced in most of the downside risks, e.g.U.S.-China trade wars and Italys deficit budget. Meanwhile, the Baht turned to appreciate, making it likely for international funds to flow out at a lower rate. In addition, crude remains high. In this regard,we expect it to help support stocks in the energy sector. On the domestic front, we view that Thailands stable economy and politics will help support the SET to increase in the medium to long-term.
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09
October
2018
Daily Focus : 9 October 2018,Bet on domestic play. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 678)
We expect the SET to continue to decrease in the near term after it slipped below its key support of 1,700-1,710 amid heavy trading volume. The fall was pressured by Italys deficit
budget and U.S.-China trade wars, which resulted in heavy fund outflow to U.S. dollar. However, we believe the market has priced in such factors. In addition, we expect a rebound in the future. Hence,we continue to recommend that investors bet on the domestic play,particularly those benefiting from investments and general election.
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08
October
2018
Daily Focus : 8 October 2018,Bet on domestic and laggard plays. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 631)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways down as it continues to be pressured by a number of factors. Worth mentioning is Italys deficit budget and U.S. bond yield which
continues to rise and pressure international funds to flow out.Nonetheless, we continue to recommend our investors to invest in the domestic play, particularly laggard ones because we expect them to outperform the market due to strength and stability of the domestic economy and politics. Finally, we believe there is a chance the SET will turn to rise in the future.
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05
October
2018
Daily Focus : 5 October 2018,Bet on domestic and laggard plays. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 622)
We expect the SET to continue to move lower since there is no fresh catalyst to provide support. Moreover, there is still a concern over Italys financial position. Tonight, keep an eye
on U.S. labor data in September. If it comes in higher than expected, there is a chance that the Fed will continue to hike policy rate, which will pressure international funds to remain on its outward path. However, we continue to have confidence in the strength of Thailands domestic factors in terms of both its economy and politics. Hence, its possible that the SET will increase going forward.
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04
October
2018
Daily Focus : 4 October 2018,Bet on domestic and laggard plays. Accumulate on
(views 673)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways to build up base, pressured mainly by international factors.However, we believe that the index will not fall below its key support of 1,730 since there is still support from strong domestic factors, particularly a general election that will take place in February next year and state projects which will accelerate throughout the remaining period of this government. In this regard,we view that market retreats will serve as an opportunity to buy following our recommendation to take near-term profit at about
1,760.
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03
October
2018
Daily Focus : 3 October 2018,Bet on domestic laggard play. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 574)
The SET will move sideways down. Since the U.S., Mexico, and Canada have reached the USMCA trade deal, the U.S. can now fully target China. This has triggered market concerns.
However, we believe market retreats will not be large because the market has mostly reflected the said factor in the past several months. In particular, we believe the SET will not fall below its support of 1,730 thanks to domestic factors, i.e. a clear general election and the governments push for its mega projects in the next 4-5 months.
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02
October
2018
Daily Focus : 2 October 2018,Bet on laggard energy play
(views 631)
The SET will move sideways up. We expect the energy sector to continue to lead after crude increased to its peak in nearly four years thanks to both U.S. sanctions against Iran and the USMCA trade agreements. In Thailand, domestic factors, especially politics continued to serve as key drivers. Although the Dollar Index was up, the Baht also increased. This reflects strengths and the outlook that foreign funds will stream into the region shortly. In this regard, we continue to view that the SET will remain on its upward path until a general election takes place.
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01
October
2018
Daily Focus : 1 October 2018,Continue to bet on domestic laggard play
(views 598)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways, pressured by Chinas Manufacturing PMI in September which came in at 50.0, lower than expected. Moreover, there is no improved signal in the U.S. - China trade wars. Nonetheless, we expect the energy sector to continue to benefit from the continued increase in crude price and to provide support. In Thailand,
domestic factors are strong in both the economy and politics. We believe they will help create confidence for both domestic institutions and foreign investors to turn to buy Thai equities.Finally, we believe that the index will continue to rise in the mid- to long-term.
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28
September
2018
Daily Focus : 28 September 2018,Bet on domestic laggard play.
(views 590)
We expect the SET to move sideways up thanks to investment sentiment which is brighter and begins to positively reflect on the FOMCs meeting results and the Feds monetary policy
outlook which shows the central banks confidence toward its strong economy. In Thailand, we expect the development of a general election to serve as a support. Moreover, it will create confidence for both domestic institutions and foreign investors, making them turn to invest in Thai equities. Finally, we view that the SET will continue to rally in the mid- to long-run.
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27
September
2018
Daily Focus : 27 September 2018,Bet on domestic laggard play
(views 579)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways after the FOMC decided to hike policy rate by 0.25% to 2-2.25% at its latest meeting, as expected. Moreover, the committee signaled
another rise in December since inflation does not pressure it to raise policy rate at a higher rate than its current plan. Finally, the meeting also expressed positive view toward the economy which remains strong. In general, we see it as positive in the mid- to long run.Whats more, domestic factors continue to see support from a general election which is about to take place. In this regard, there is a chance that the market will continue to rally in the future after the current retreats.
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26
September
2018
Daily Focus : 26 September 2018,Bet on domestic laggard play
(views 583)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways down after the market continues to lack fresh catalyst. Meanwhile,the U.S. prepares to press on with its trade agreements with Mexico without Canada. Tonight, keep an eye on the FOMC meeting on how it will signal its future monetary policy after its quite certain now that the committee will hike policy rate this time. In this regard, we continue to have a bullish view on the SETs mid-term outlook. Such a view is supported mainly by domestic factors. In particular, we expect Thai politics to have better development. Hence, we continue to recommend domestic play, particularly laggard ones.
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25
September
2018
Daily Focus : 25 September 2018,Bet on energy and laggard plays
(views 628)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways after the indexs sharp and quick rallies earlier. In particular, we expect the energy sector to provide support because crude has
increased after the OPEC decided not to raise their output. Looking ahead, there are factors that need monitoring. They include a FOMC meeting which will be held in these two days. Moreover, there is uncertainty over U.S. politics after there were news reports that Deputy Attorney General has verbally resigned. As a result, we expect international funds to slow at this time. Nonetheless, we maintain our bullish view on the SETs rallies in the mid-run. In this regard, we recommend our investors are more selective on laggard counters.
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24
September
2018
Daily Focus : 24 September 2018,Bet on domestic laggard play. Let profit run.
(views 641)
We expect the SET to move sideways after the index has rallied by over 80 points in the past week or so. Moreover,we began to see selling to lock in profit before the market closed
lately. Today, the U.S. and China will begin to impose a new round of import tariffs, while we expect international funds to slow while waiting for an FOMC meeting in the middle of this week when its quite certain that the Committee will hike policy rate to 2.25%.However, domestic factors remain strong in terms of both the economy and politics. Hence, the SET is still likely to continue to rally in the mid to long term. In this regard, we continue to recommend that investors bet on the domestic play, focusing on laggard counters.
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21
September
2018
Daily Focus : 21 September 2018,Bet on domestic laggard play. Let profit run.
(views 629)
We expect the SET to continue to move in positive territory thanks to investment sentiment which is quite bright after the DJIA continued to hit a new high after the concerns over trade wars eased. In Thailand, a clear general election serves as a driver for confidence. In this regard, there is a chance that international funds will continue to flow into the country. Although there might be near-term retreats, we view that such falls will only be followed by rallies in the next 4-6 months. We continue to focus on the domestic laggard play. In this regard, the ones that continue to lag behind peers should outperform the market.
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20
September
2018
Daily Focus : 20 September 2018,Bet on domestic laggard play. Let profit run.
(views 646)
We expect the SET to move sideways down in the near term after the index has rallied quickly and sharply in the last five days. However, we continue to view that the market is still
on its upward movement, supported mainly by domestic factors. To elaborate, both Thailands economy and politics are stable, creating market confidence. In addition, international funds began to turn to stream into the country, while the market has factored in most of the concerns over trade wars after the impacts might not be as strong as the public has feared. In this regard, we view that domestic laggard play will outperform the market.
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19
September
2018
Daily Focus : 19 September 2018,Bet on domestic play. Let profit run.
(views 669)
We expect the SET to move sideways to sideways up to test its resistance of 1,750. In general, investment sentiment continues to ease. Although China has retaliated against the U.S. in kind by imposing tariffs on US$60bn worth of U.S. goods, the tax rate is only 10%, well below the 20% anticipated by the market earlier. Moreover, crude rallied. This should help support the energy sector. In Thailand, keep an eye on todays MPC meeting on how it will signal a rate increase. Moreover, there will be a new set of economic forecasts.
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18
September
2018
Daily Focus : 18 September 2018,Continue to bet on domestic play
(views 623)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways down after, in its latest move, the U.S. has announced a tariff of 10% on US$200bn worth of Chinese goods starting from September
24, 2018 onward and the rate will increase to 25% next year. This makes it difficult for negotiations to take place and there is a chance that China will retaliate instantly by imposing tariffs on US$60bn worth of U.S. products as there was news earlier. In this regard, the global and export plays will be pressured. However, the domestic play will continue to move better than the market,particularly those that benefit from a clearer general election.
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17
September
2018
Daily Focus : 17 September 2018,Bet on domestic play. Let profit run.
(views 594)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways. Although trade wars will continue to put pressure after President Trump still wanted to impose tariffs on US$200bn worth of
Chinese products even though China has accepted U.S. invitation to a new round of trade talks, we expect domestic factors which continue to improve to provide support. Recently, the National Council for Peace and Order has invoked Sector 44 to unlock political parties. As a result, we expect the domestic play to continue to outperform the market in line with our view and recommendation in the past several months.
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14
September
2018
Daily Focus : 14 September 2018,Bet on domestic play. Let profit run.
(views 701)
We expect the SET to continue to move up thanks to investment sentiment which remains bright. Although the energy sector is pressured by crude which tumbled by 2.5% overnight, there are still supports from Chinas welcome of U.S. invitation for a new round of trade talks. In Thailand, domestic factors are strong. To elaborate, the economy is robust, while a
general election has become clearer. In this regard, we believe they will create continued confidence for both foreign as well as domestic institutions. We maintain our call for investors to bet on the domestic play because we expect it to be able to outperform the market.
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13
September
2018
Daily Focus : 13 September 2018,Bet on domestic play
(views 694)
We expect the SET to continue to rebound today thanks to investment sentiment which improves after there were reports that the U.S. prepares a new round of trade talks with China. Moreover, crude continued to increase, providing support for the energy sector. Today, there is a major catalyst, i.e. the publishing of Senate and MP Elections Acts in the government
gazette, which makes general election time frame to be clearer. In particular, its expected to be no later than May 2019. In this regard, we maintain our view that the domestic play will outperform the market.
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12
September
2018
Daily Focus : 12 September 2018,Continue to bet on “Triple D” play
(views 711)
We expect the SET to begin to steady. In particular, we anticipate that the energy sector will support the market after crude surged by 2.5% yesterday. However, trade wars,especially between the U.S. and China, seem to escalate and are predicted to serve as a key factor that pressures the index after,according to the latest data, China prepares to request the WTO to impose sanctions against the U.S. Given the current risks and uncertainties, there is a chance the SET will further decrease. In this regard, we maintain our call for investors to continue to invest or park cash in domestic, defensive, and dividend play because they should be safer and move stronger than the market.
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11
September
2018
Daily Focus : 11 September 2018,Continue to bet on domestic play
(views 583)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways to build up base after the market continues to lack fresh catalyst to provide support. In addition, foreign investors continued to keep
monitoring the trade wars between the U.S. and other countries. In particular, the U.S. plans to impose tariffs on US$200bn worth of Chinese products, which China is ready to instantly slap back. Late this week, investors have to keep an eye on BoE and ECB meetings on how they will signal their monetary policy. Since there are uncertainties on international factors, we continue to recommend that investors invest in the domestic play because we view it as safe and expect it to outperform the market thanks to economic and political stabilities.
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10
September
2018
Daily Focus : 10 September 2018,Continue to bet on domestic and defensive play
(views 629)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways to build up base due to investment sentiment which remains dull. To elaborate, President Trump said that tariffs on US$200bn worth of Chinese goods will become effective shortly and the U.S. is ready to impose additional tariffs on another US$267bn worth of Chinese imports. Whats more, it is preparing to negotiate trade deals with Japan. Together they put a cap on both the market and fund flows.In this regard, we maintain our view that the defensive domestic play will continue to be safe and outperform the market.
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07
September
2018
Daily Focus : 7 September 2018,Continue to bet on domestic play. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 627)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways to build up base. In this regard, we expect the indexs gain to be limited since markets continue to wait for results from U.S. - Canada
trade talks as well as the U.S. planned tariffs on US$200bn worth of Chinese goods. According to the latest information, President Trump hinted that trade fight with Japan could be next. This has increased market concerns. Other than that, crude continued to decrease,putting pressure on the energy sector. Given that, we maintain our view that the domestic play should be safe and outperform the market.
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06
September
2018
Daily Focus : 6 September 2018,Continue to bet on domestic play. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 602)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways down after its yesterdays sharp fall since investment sentiment remains dull due to concerns over trade wars and currency in emerging markets. However, Thailands fundamentals are quite strong in terms of both its economy and political stability. Whats more, the country has a current account surplus as well as a high foreign reserve. Hence, we view that the domestic play should remain safe and continue to move better than the market.
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05
September
2018
Daily Focus : 5 September 2018,Bet on mid- to small-cap domestic plays. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 579)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways down since there is no fresh catalyst to provide support. The factor that continues to put a cap on the market remains trade issues
between the U.S. and a number of its trade partners. Worth mentioning is the U.S. plan to impose import tariffs on US$200bn worth of Chinese goods and the countrys threat to withdraw from the WTO. Given a narrow market movement, we anticipate mid- to small-cap domestic counters will outperform the market, supported by the countrys economy and stable domestic politics.
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04
September
2018
Daily Focus : 4 September 2018,Bet on domestic play. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 719)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways amid weak trading volume after there is no fresh catalyst.Meanwhile, the market will keep an eye on trade wars between the U.S. and its trading partners. In particular, the U.S. plans to impose tariffs on US$200bn worth of Chinese products after public-comment ends on September 6. Given that, we continue to believe the domestic play will outperform the market thanks to domestic factors, i.e. Thailands economic growth outlook and the countrys politics which is quite stable.
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03
September
2018
Daily Focus : 3 September 2018,Bet on domestic play. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 593)
We expect the SET to move sideways down because investment sentiment is not bright. To elaborate, the Thai main index continues to be pressured by global trade issues. In
particular, the U.S. - Canada trade talks are yet to be finalized. In addition, we still need to keep an eye on the U.S. plan to impose tariffs on US$200bn worth of Chinese products after public-comment ends on September 6. In this regard, we continue to view that the domestic play will outperform the market thanks to strong domestic fundamentals and fair political stability.
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31
August
2018
Daily Focus : 31 August 2018,Bet on domestic play. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 620)
We expect the SET to move sideways down after the index failed to pass its resistance of 1,730. Moreover,investment sentiment is more negative after President Trump wanted to press on with his plan to impose import tariffs on US$200bn worth of Chinese products. Moreover, there are currency crises in both Turkey and Argentina. However, we believe the energy sector will provide support after crude continued to rise due to tight supply. On the local front, domestic factors are steady in both economy and politics. In this regard, we continue to focus investment on the domestic play.
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30
August
2018
Daily Focus : 30 August 2018,Bet on domestic play. Let profit run.
(views 655)
We expect the SET to move sideways up thanks to investment sentiment which is positive after Canada joined in a new NAFTA, which is expected to be reached within this week,
following U.S. and Mexico bilateral agreement early this week. Given that, the concerns over trade wars have begun to ease. On the domestic front, the market also benefits from Thailand Focus as well as a fairly stable political landscape which includes the prospect that a general election will take place in February next year.
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29
August
2018
Daily Focus : 29 August 2018,Bet on domestic play and let profit run
(views 594)
We expect the SET to move sideways after it failed to break its resistance of 1,730 yesterday. Domestically, there are factors that need monitoring. First, Thailand Focus is starting
today. Second, the Prime Minister confirmed that a general election would take place on February 24, 2019 after organic laws governing the election of members of the House of Representatives and the selection of the Senate come into effect. Moreover, its about the time to unlock political activities. In this regard, we view that the domestic play will outperform the market.
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28
August
2018
Daily Focus : 28 August 2018,Bet on domestic play. Let profit run.
(views 645)
We expect the SET to increase to test its previous high of 1,730 thanks to investment sentiment which is bright after the U.S. has reached a trade deal with Mexico to replace
NAFTA. Given that, the concerns over trade wars have eased. On the domestic front, Thailand Focus will start tomorrow. Its expected that the event will help create investor confidence. Finally, there is a chance that international funds will turn to flow into the country going forward, which will provide support for the Thai main index.
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27
August
2018
Daily Focus : 27 August 2018,Bet on domestic play and let profit run.
(views 587)
The SET will move in positive territory thanks to crude which continued to surge due to tight supply after the U.S. sanctions on Iran. In the meantime, the Fed still confirmed that U.S.
economy was strong enough to withstand a tighter monetary policy.As Thailand Focus is taking place this week, we expect it to help create confidence. Moreover, there is a chance that international funds will stream into Thailand. This will help support the SET to increase in the future.
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22
August
2018
Daily Focus : 22 August 2018,Bet on domestic play. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 669)
The SET will bounce back in the near term thanks to the energy sector which is anticipated to lead after crude rallied by 1.4% yesterday. However, we continue to believe that the
indexs upside is limited as the market has their eye fixed on a number of international factors, comprising U.S.-China trade talks and the Feds meeting in Jackson Hole late this week to get an insight on their view on the economy and monetary policy. However,Thailands economy grew stronger than expected. Hence, we expect a laggard domestic play to outperform the market.
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21
August
2018
Daily Focus : 21 August 2018,Selective buy. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 589)
The SET will move sideways. In this regard, we expect the indexs upside to be more limited after President Trump criticized the Feds rate hike. Moreover, the market still waits for
results from U.S.-China talks to resolve their trade disputes and the Feds meeting in Jackson Hole late this week about their view on the economy and monetary policy. In this regard, we view that laggard counters with a strong profit outlook will outperform the market.
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20
August
2018
Daily Focus : 20 August 2018,Selective buy. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 593)
The SET will continue to move sideways to sideways up due to optimism over U.S.-China trade talks to resolve trade disputes. In Thailand, investors should keep an eye on 2Q18
GDP which looks set to come in higher than the consensus forecast of 4%. However, we continue to view that the indexs gain will be limited. Moreover, we believe that stocks with specific catalysts or strong 2H18 profit outlook and laggard counters will outperform the market.
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17
August
2018
Daily Focus : 17 August 2018,Bet on laggard play. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 675)
We expect the SET to move sideways up thanks to investment sentiment which is more relaxed after the U.S. and China prepare to resume trade talks this month. However, investors
still need to keep monitoring the currency situation in Turkey.Moreover, 2Q18 corporate earnings and company visits did not offer significantly positive surprises. Hence, we expect a market rise to be limited at this time.
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16
August
2018
Daily Focus : 16 August 2018,Bet on laggard play.
(views 622)
The SET looks likely to decrease in line with international markets due to a currency situation in the emerging markets. Moreover, the interest rate in most emerging markets looks likely to increase to tackle currency depreciation. Finally, 2Q18 corporate earnings do not significantly surprise. Hence, there is a chance the market will see sell-on-fact.
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15
August
2018
Daily Focus : 15 August 2018,Bet on laggard play. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 655)
We expect the SET to continue to retreat, even though the Turkish lira began to recover. Moreover, we continue to view that the indexs upside is limited at this time. In the big
picture, 2Q18 corporate earnings do not make a significant surprise. Hence, we do not see any new catalyst to provide support, while foreign investors turn to record a net sell position after their net buy position in the past 2-3 weeks also serves as pressure.
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14
August
2018
Daily Focus : 14 August 2018,Bet on defensive play. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 701)
We expect the SET to decrease in line with global equity markets which decreased quite sharply yesterday due to concerns over the Turkish lira which has tumbled by nearly 50%
this year. Moreover, the U.S. has threatened to double tariffs on its imports of steel and aluminium from Turkey. Given that, there is a chance the country will be in default, which might have a fallout on European banks. In Thailand, 2Q18 results will end this week. Since they are generally not significantly higher than expected, we view that the market will remain in retreats in the near term after the index has continued to rally in the past one month.
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10
August
2018
Daily Focus : 10 August 2018,Bet on laggard earnings play. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 605)
The SET is still on its downward path after it has rallied sharply in the past one month. Meanwhile, listed companies 2Q18 earnings results which are about to end are not significantly
higher than expected. Hence, there is a chance that there will be sell-on-fact in the near term, while we expect the trade war between the U.S. and China will put a cap on the indexs rally. In this regard, we continue to recommend that investors wait to buy on weakness.
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09
August
2018
Daily Focus : 9 August 2018,Bet on laggard earnings play. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 542)
The SET is likely to move down after it has rallied quite strongly in the last two days. Today, we expect the energy sector to weigh after crude tumbled by over 3% after China hit the U.S. back. Specifically, China will impose 25% import tariff on US$16bn U.S. goods. Looking ahead, investors should continue to keep an eye on 2Q18 corporate earnings. If they do not come in significantly higher than expected, we view that there is a good chance the SET will see sell-on-fact after the index has rallied strongly in the past one month. However, we also believe that the SETs downside is limited as funds remain on their inward direction.
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08
August
2018
Daily Focus : 8 August 2018,Bet on laggard earnings play. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 578)
The SET will move sideways up thanks to investment sentiment which is quite relaxed in other regions.However, the factor that will dominate market direction at this time
is 2Q18 corporate earnings. If they do not come in significantly higher than expected, there is a chance the SET will see sell-on-fact after the index has rallied sharply in the past one month. Whats more, the trade war issue will remain a key factor that puts a cap on the market rally. In its latest move, the U.S. will start collecting import duty on US$16bn worth of Chinese products on this August 23, 2018.
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07
August
2018
Daily Focus : 7 August 2018,Bet on laggard earnings play. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 595)
We believe the SET is still on its downward path after the index has sharply rallied in the past one month. In this regard, we recommend that investors keep an eye on 2Q18
corporate earnings which will come in quite a lot at this time. Since stocks have considerably factored in optimism, if earnings do not come in significantly higher than expected, there will be sell-on-fact in the near term. Given that, we continue to focus on laggard counters with strong 2Q18 profit outlook. If the index falls, we view it as an opportunity to buy back fundamental counters at 1,680 after investors have locked in short-term profit.
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06
August
2018
Daily Focus : 6 August 2018,Bet on laggard earnings play. Sell some into strength to lock in near-term profit.
(views 583)
We expect the SET to move sideways. This week,there are factors that need monitoring, i.e. corporate earnings which will come in quite a lot. If they do not arrive sharply above
the market consensus, we believe market gain will remain limited and there is a chance for near-term profit-taking after the SET sharply rallied last month. Moreover, we expect the trade war between the U.S. and China to continue to put a cap as news develops. In this regard, laggard counters with strong 2Q18 profit outlook should outperform the index at this time. When the SET increases, we view it as an opportunity to sell some into strength to lock in near-term profit. After which, we recommend that investors wait to buy back when the market decreases.
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03
August
2018
Daily Focus : 3 August 2018,Bet on laggard earnings play. Sell into strength to lock in short-term profit.
(views 640)
We expect the SET to rebound in the near term after its sharp fall yesterday. To elaborate, we expect the energy sector to turn to support the market once more after crude turned
positive. Nonetheless, we continue to believe that the SETs upside is limited. Moreover, we view that the market is in its sideways-down movement after foreign investors funds began to stream in at a lower rate due to the Baht which turned to depreciate once again and lingering concerns over trade wars. In this regard, we expect laggard counters with strong 2Q18 profit outlook will outperform the market. If the index increases, we view it as an opportunity to sell to lock in near-term profit and to trim portfolio.
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02
August
2018
Daily Focus : 2 August 2018,Bet on earnings and laggard play. Sell some into strength to lock in near-term profit
(views 584)
The SET will move sideways after its strong rally yesterday and while investors keep their eyes on trade wars issue after the U.S. might impose more import tariffs on Chinese products.Specifically, the country might expand its list of taxable products from 10% to 25% of its total imports of US$200bn. Whats more,crude tumbled in the last two days for over 3%. This will put pressure on the energy sector and limit the SETs upside. However,we also believe downside is capped at this time after international funds flowed into the country, as seen from the Baht appreciation.Given that, we expect laggard counters to outperform the market at this time, while an index gain will serve as an opportunity to sell to trim portfolio and for short-term profit.
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01
August
2018
Daily Focus : 1 August 2018,Bet on earnings play. Sell into strength to take short-term profit.
(views 572)
The SET is likely to move sideways up after there was news that the U.S. and China were starting a new round of trade talks to defuse trade wars. However, we continue to view that the indexs gain will be limited at this time as investors wait for results from key central banks, i.e. the FED and the BOE, this week. Whats more, more corporate earnings are due out in the near future, while the SET has sharply and quickly rallied by 6.7% in July. Hence, there continues to be a chance the Thai index will see selling to lock in near-term profit. In this regard, we continue to recommend that investors bet on stocks with strong profit outlook. Furthermore, its advisable that investors sell some to lock in near-term profit when the market increases.
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26
July
2018
Daily Focus : 26 July 2018, Bet on earnings play. Sell into strength to take near-term profit
(views 838)
The SET is likely to continue to move up thanks to investment sentiment which remains positive after the U.S. and the EU made progress on trade deals. However, the Thai main index has rallied quite quickly in the last 1-2 weeks by nearly 100 points. In addition, its now close to a long holiday. Hence, we expect the market gain to limit to about 1,700 and there might begin to be selling to take profit. In this regard, we recommend investors sell some into strength to take short-term profit and continue to hold mid- to long-term investments.
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25
July
2018
Daily Focus : 25 July 2018,Bet on earnings play. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 555)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways as Thailand approaches a long holiday. Moreover, there are a number of factors that need monitoring. They comprise an ECB meeting (whether it will signal tapering or not), and trade talks between the U.S. and EU. In Thailand, it will continue to be earnings results of the listed companies in the real sector. In this regard, we expect market gain to begin to limit. However, we believe that stocks with strong profit outlook will continue to outperform the market.
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24
July
2018
Daily Focus : 24 July 2018,Bet on earnings play. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 596)
We expect the SET to move sideways down due to lack of fresh catalyst. To elaborate, investors continue to keep their eye on the development of trade wars issue after the G20
meeting ended without any consensus. However, the meeting reiterated an urgent need to discuss to reduce trade disputes.Moreover, 2Q18 earnings results of listed companies in the real sector will be out in the next two weeks. Hence, we view that stocks with strong profit outlook will continue to move better than the market.
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23
July
2018
Daily Focus : 23 July 2018,Bet on earnings play. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 579)
We expect the SET to move sideways down due to negative investment sentiment after President Trump criticized the Feds rate hike and said he was ready to hit all Chinese imports
of US$500bn with tariffs. Moreover, the index should take a pause after its strong rallies last week. Nonetheless, we view that this round of losses will limit to 1,650 because we believe that banks will provide supports after most of them reported higher-than-expected earnings results. In addition, funds begin to turn to stream into the region. In this regard, we recommend that investors continue to keep an eye on listed companies 2Q18 earnings results because we continue to believe that stocks with strong profit outlook will move better than the market.
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20
July
2018
Daily Focus : 20 July 2018,Bet on earnings play. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 590)
The SET looks likely to continue to move sideways to sideways up after several large banks have announced above-estimate earnings results. Moreover, crude continued to increase, providing support for energy counters. Nonetheless, we continue to view that the indexs gain will be capped because investment sentiment is pressured after President Trump disagreed with the Feds rate hike, which was interpreted as an intervention.In addition, the market still has to keep monitoring banks earnings results that are due out today. On the real sector, they will begin to report their earnings results from next week onward. In this regard, we view that stocks with strong 2Q18 profit outlook will outperform the market.
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19
July
2018
Daily Focus : 19 July 2018,Bet on earnings play. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 607)
We expect the SET to move sideways because we believe investors will keep an eye and pay attention to banksearnings results, a large number of which are due out in these two
days. If they do not come in lower than expected, there will be buying that will support the index to increase. However, we continue to view that such gain will not be large since trade wars issue continues to linger. Given that, investors still have to keep a close eye on such matter. In this regard, stocks with strong 2Q18 earnings outlook should see speculation and outperform the market in the near term.
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18
July
2018
Daily Focus : 18 July 2018,Bet on earnings play. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 626)
We expect the SET to move sideways up thanks to investment sentiment which has eased after the Fed Chair gave a bullish view about the economy in his semiannual report before
Congress. To elaborate, the Fed believes that 2Q18 GDP expanded at a sharply higher than in 1Q18. In addition, it was strong enough for the Fed to raise interest rate by two more times this year, while inflation was not a concern. However, we believe that the market will continue to pay attention to listed companies 2Q18 earnings results as banks earnings reports are due to come in late this week.In this regard, we view that there should be speculation in stocks with strong 2Q18 earnings outlook, making them move better than the market.
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17
July
2018
Daily Focus : 17 July 2018,Bet on earnings play. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 626)
We expect the SET to continue to decrease,weighed down by the energy sector after crude tumbled by over 4%.Moreover, there are a number of factors that need monitoring, i.e.
the Fed Chairs semi-annual testimony before Congress during these two days and banks earnings results in Thailand which will come in mostly late this week. Given that, market rebound should be limited at this time. Whats more, we continue to view that stocks with strong 2Q18 profit outlook should see supports from speculation and be able to move stronger than the market.
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16
July
2018
Daily Focus : 16 July 2018,Bet on earnings play. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 671)
The SET will move sideways as a number of factors are being monitored. They comprise Chinas 2Q18 GDP this morning and a meeting between President Trump and President
Putin. On trade wars issue, investors still need to continue to keep monitoring the news. In Thailand, lots of banks are scheduled to report their earnings late this week. Given that, we see more limited upside at this time after the SET has rebounded quite well in the past week. However, we expect speculation on selected stocks with strong 2Q18 profit outlook.
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13
July
2018
Daily Focus : 13 July 2018,Bet on earnings play. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 618)
The SET looks likely to move sideways up to test 1,650 thanks to investment sentiment which is brighter after the trade wars issue has eased. In their latest move, China did not
respond to the U.S. planned tariffs on an addition of US$200bn of Chinese goods. Moreover, there were news that the country called for talks and did not want to engage in trade wars. Given that, we expect the market to turn to focus more on economic fundamentals and listed companies earnings performance at this time. Moreover,we believe that stocks with strong 2Q18 profit outlook will become a target for speculation.
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12
July
2018
Daily Focus : 12 July 2018,Bet on earnings play. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 564)
We expect the SET to continue to decrease today, dragged down by the energy sector after crude sharply tumbled by 5% since there were fears that demand might be hit by
trade wars. Furthermore, supply increased due to Saudi Arabia and Libya. Nonetheless, we expect speculations at this time on a number of counters that are anticipated to report strong 2Q18 earnings results, which make them be able to move stronger than the market.In addition, we maintain our view that market retreats will serve as an opportunity to buy for long-term investment.
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11
July
2018
Daily Focus : 11 July 2018,Bet on earnings play. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 669)
We expect the SET to decrease to test 1,620-1,630 due to investment sentiment which is negative after trade wars intensified. In its latest move, the U.S. plans to impose import tariffs on an addition of US$200bn Chinese products. They are anticipated to come into effect in September. This is in line with our view that investors still need to keep a close eye on this matter. In this regard, we expect selling to lock in short-term profit on the counters that have rallied lately. It will put a cap on the indexs recovery, deviating it from a V-shape pattern. In this regard, we continue to recommend that investors park cash in the counters that are anticipated to report strong 2Q18 earnings in the near term. Moreover, market retreats will serve as an opportunity to buy for long-term investments.
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10
July
2018
Daily Focus : 10 July 2018,Bet on earnings play. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 636)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways up thanks to investment sentiment which is more relaxed as markets turn their attention away from trade wars and more towards
fundamentals, while Thailand is about to enter its 2Q18 earnings season. Nonetheless, we continue to believe that the index will recover in a V-shape pattern. Whats more, investors need to continue to keep their eye on developments over trade wars. In the near term, we recommend that our investors bet on stocks with strong 2Q18 profit outlook. In this regard, we view that market retreats serve as an opportunity to buy solid fundamental counters which sharply tumble for long-term investment.
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09
July
2018
Daily Focus : 9 July 2018,Continue to bet on domestic play. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 656)
We expect the SET to move sideways up thanks to a rise in crude which will support the energy sector. Although the market begins to see buy-on-fact from the U.S. and China trade
retaliation, we continue to view that the market rebound will not come in a V-shape pattern. Moreover, investors still need to keep an eye on trade wars issue. Despite such view, we believe that this round of retreats serves as an opportunity to accumulate fundamental stocks that have sharply tumbled. In this regard, we continue to focus on domestic play.
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06
July
2018
Daily Focus : 6 July 2018,Continue to park cash in domestic and defensive plays
(views 599)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways down due to investment sentiment which is not very bright. To elaborate, crude dropped, putting pressure on the energy sector.
Moreover, President Trump confirmed that the U.S. would press on with its decision to impose import tariffs, totaling US$34bn at 11.01 today Thailand time. If this happens, China will instantly retaliate.After which, another US$16bn is expected to begin to be collected in the next two weeks. Given that, we expect international funds to continue to stream out. In addition, we continue to view that domestic and defensive plays with a high dividend should outperform the market.
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05
July
2018
Daily Focus : 5 July 2018,Continue to invest in domestic and dividend plays
(views 576)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways as markets keep their eye on trade whether the U.S. will press on with its decision to impose tariffs on Chinese products on July 6 or
not after, in its latest move, China said that it would not be the first to impose tariffs. If the U.S. eases or is relaxed in its stance, we believe that markets will respond positively. In addition, there is a chance foreign funds will stream out at a slower rate. However, we believe the energy sector will see pressure from President Trump because he would like the OPEC to reduce its crude price. Given that, we stand by our call for investors to invest in domestic and dividend plays.
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04
July
2018
Daily Focus : 4 July 2018,Continue to invest in domestic and dividend plays
(views 713)
We expect the SET to move sideways after it recovered quite well in the last two days. In particular, we expect the index to rebound only in the near term. Moreover, we believe
gain will be limited as foreign funds continue to stream out. Looking ahead, investors still need to keep an eye on U.S. - China trade wars. In this regard, we have not seen a sign that they will be able to negotiate before the deadline on July 6. Furthermore, there is still a chance for more tariffs between the U.S. and its allies. As a result, we continue to recommend that investors invest in domestic and dividend plays.
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03
July
2018
Daily Focus : 3 July 2018,Continue to invest in domestic and dividend plays
(views 596)
We expect the SET to move sideways up thanks to positive momentum which will continue from yesterday.However, we continue to view that gain will be limited as markets continue to keep an eye on trade wars. In particular, the markets are curious to know if the deadline that the U.S. will begin to impose import tariffs on Chinese products on July 6, totaling
US$34bn in import duty, can be negotiated or not. In this regard, we believe domestic and dividend plays will outperform the market thanks to strong domestic economic growth.
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02
July
2018
Daily Focus : 2 July 2018,Continue to park cash in domestic and dividend plays
(views 593)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways to sideways down due to lack of fresh catalysts. Crude dropped after Saudi Arabia said that the country was ready to hike its output to 2mn barrels, if necessary, while Canada started to impose import tariffs on U.S. products, totaling US$12.6bn in import duty. This week, investors have to keep an eye on the U.S. and China if they are able to negotiate and avert a decision to impose import tariffs,totaling US$34bn in import duty, before July 6 or not. Given that,we continue to recommend that investors park cash in domestic and defensive plays that pay a high dividend because they should outperform the market.
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28
June
2018
Daily Focus : 28 June 2018,Continue to park cash in domestic and defensive plays
(views 618)
We expect the SET to move sideways down due to investment sentiment which is not bright. To elaborate, there is still a chance that the SET will decrease to test a level close to
1,600 points due to concerns over trade wars, a key risk that is anticipated to continue to put a weight on the SET for a while.Moreover, it is expected to put pressure on foreign fund flows, keep them on their outward path. In this regard, we continue to recommend that investors park cash in domestic and defensive counters.
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27
June
2018
Daily Focus : 27 June 2018,Park cash in domestic and defensive plays. Bet on energy sector.
(views 635)
We expect the SET to move sideways to build up a base. In particular, we expect the energy sector to lead the market after crude surged by 3.6%. However, we continue to view
that market gain will be limited as one key factor, i.e. global trade war is anticipated to continue to linger at least for a while. This will put pressure on international funds to continue to stream out of the region. In this regard, we maintain our call for investors to park cash in domestic and defensive plays. In the near term, we suggest that investors trade based upon specific catalysts of each sector or counter.
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26
June
2018
Daily Focus : 26 June 2018,Park cash in domestic and defensive plays.
(views 611)
We expect the SET to decrease. Moreover, there is a chance the index will fall to test 1,600 points due to negative investment sentiment after there were news reports that the U.S.
prepared to put a cap on foreign investments. This has raised the tensions over trade disputes. In this regard, we believe such factor will continue to drag on for a while and pressure the SET to limitedly rebound. In this regard, we continue to recommend that investors park cash in domestic and defensive plays because we believe they will outperform the market.
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25
June
2018
Daily Focus : 25 June 2018,Trade energy counters. Park cash in domestic and defensive plays.
(views 569)
We expect the SET to increase, led by energy shares after crude rallied by nearly 5% last Friday to reflect results from oil-producing country meetings. To elaborate, the meeting
decided to increase output at a level that is smaller than what the markets have anticipated. However, we view that such rebound is only temporary. In particular, we need to continue to closely monitor U.S.-China trade wars if they will be able to settle their differences by July 6, the date that the U.S. sets to begin imposing import tariff or not. In this regard, we continue to prefer domestic to global plays since Thailands economic growth outlook is strong.Whats more, we believe the SET will be able to outperform the market in the mid to long run.
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22
June
2018
Daily Focus : 22 June 2018,Park cash in domestic and defensive plays. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 572)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways down at least for a while. This morning, investment sentiment remains capped by concerns over trade wars after the eurozone launched retaliation measures on the U.S. However, it might be partly offset by crude which surged by about 1.5%. In Thailand,the weak Baht will pressure international funds to flow out. Whats more, we expect forced sell in equity and forced close margin in the Single Stock Futures through block trade to persist. This is seen from proprietary trading which continued to book a large net sell position.In this regard, we continue to focus on domestic play, which has demonstrated throughout this week that it was unable to outperform the market.
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21
June
2018
Daily Focus : 21 June 2018,Park cash in domestic and defensive plays. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 590)
We expect the SET to move sideways after it rebounded quite strongly yesterday. Although we expect the rise in crude to help support energy shares, we do not anticipate the indexs gain to be large due to U.S.-China trade wars, a factor that needs close monitoring. In this regard, we maintain our call for investors to park cash or accumulate domestic and defensive plays after the markets valuation is attractive. Whats more, Thailands economic growth outlook in the mid to long run remains strong.Lately, the BoT has revised up its GDP estimate. As a result, we focus on stocks related to domestic consumption and state investment.
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20
June
2018
Daily Focus : 20 June 2018,Continue to park cash in domestic and defensive plays.
(views 646)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways. In particular, there is a chance for a technical rebound in the near term after the index has decreased for five straight trading day. However, we believe gain will be limited because there are still concerns over U.S.-China trade wars, which still need to be closely monitored. In the near term, we continue to recommend that investors park cash or accumulate defensive counters. However, the markets valuation begins to be more attractive. Furthermore, domestic economic growth remains strong in the mid to long run.Hence, we view a fall as an opportunity to accumulate domestic stocks that deal with domestic consumption and government investment.
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19
June
2018
Daily Focus : 19 June 2018,Park cash in domestic and defensive plays. Accumulate on
(views 640)
We expect the SET to continue to decrease. In the near term, it will remain capped by trade war concerns after the U.S. has announced an addition of US$200bn of Chinese products
that it will impose import tariff. Crude continued to be volatile prior to meetings of oil-producing countries this Friday, where it is anticipated that output will be raised. Nonetheless, we maintain our bullish view toward Thailands mid- to long-term economic growth outlook. Hence, we recommend that investors park cash in domestic and defensive plays that deal with domestic consumption and state investment for now.
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18
June
2018
Daily Focus : 18 June 2018,Bet on domestic plays. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 601)
We expect the SET to continue to decrease to below 1,700 points. This is seen from investment sentiment which is negative after crude tumbled due to an expectation that oilproducing countries will increase their output. Moreover, the concerns over trades between the U.S. and China were reignited after both have released a list of products that they will impose import duty. Nonetheless, we view that the Thai equity market has limited downsides because it has decreased quite considerably.Whats more, there began to be buying in the last two trading days at the 1,700 level, while Thai economic growth is accelerating.Given that, we continue to focus on an investment in the domestic play.
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15
June
2018
Daily Focus : 15 June 2018,Bet on domestic plays. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 675)
We expect the SET to move sideways. To elaborate, there might be a short technical rebound after the ECB meeting ended with a dovish stance. Nonetheless, we believe the SET will not rise above 1,720. Looking ahead, investors need to continue to keep an eye on global trades. Domestically, we expect support from ICT shares after DTAC has decided not to participate in auctions for 1800-MHz spectrum. As a result, it is likely that ADVANC will not participate as well. In this regard, we continue to focus on domestic play.
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14
June
2018
Daily Focus : 14 June 2018,Bet on domestic and laggard plays. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 624)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways down after the Fed has raised policy rate, as expected. According to the accompanying statement and the Dot Plot, its clear that the Fed will hike policy rate two more times this year, totaling four. This is a factor that the market is yet to absorb. Since the market will continue to have their eye fixed at an ECB meeting tonight, the SETs chance for a rebound is limited. However, we continue to view that any loss will serve as an opportunity for a new round of accumulations of fundamental stocks after Thai economy grows accelerating rate. In this regard, we focus on domestic play.
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13
June
2018
Daily Focus : 13 June 2018,Bet on domestic and laggard plays. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 539)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways as markets continue to monitor three major central banks, i.e. the Fed, the ECB, and the BOJ, which will each hold a meeting to
discuss their monetary policy. However, the factor that seems to matter most for equity markets is trade wars which are anticipated to take some time to resolve the differences between the U.S. and a number of countries. If there begin to be positive developments, we believe there is a chance that the SET will rally after it has been in a correction for quite some time.
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12
June
2018
Daily Focus : 12 June 2018,Bet on domestic and laggard plays. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 590)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways down as markets keep their eye on the first summit meeting between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un. However, it is anticipated
that there will be no concrete conclusion from just this one talk.Throughout this week, the FED, the ECB, and the BoJ will each hold a meeting to discuss their monetary policy. If they end on an easing tone, there is a chance the SET will rally in the future after a correction has passed. In this regard, we continue to like domestic rather than global play.
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11
June
2018
Daily Focus : 11 June 2018,Domestic and Laggard Play//Accumulate on Dip
(views 715)
We expect the SET to move sideways or sideways down after the G7 meeting in Canada ended amid uncertainty and did not help reduce concerns over trade wars. This week, there are a number of factors that need monitoring. They comprise a summit meeting between the U.S. and North Korea leaders, Feds policy rate outlook and dot plot, and the ECBs signal on its QE. Given that, we expect the markets gain to be limited at this time. In addition, we
continue to like domestic rather than global plays.
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08
June
2018
Daily Focus : 8 June 2018,Bet on domestic and laggard plays. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 605)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways while waiting for trade talk results from a G7 summit meeting tonight. Moreover, there are a number of factors that need monitoring this week. They comprise the U.S. - North Korea summit meeting as well as Fed and ECB meetings where policy rate and QE outlook are closely watched. However, Thailands fiscal 2019 budget which focuses on the grassroots economy is anticipated to help support domestic play to outperform the market.
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07
June
2018
Daily Focus : 7 June 2018,Bet on domestic and laggard plays. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 637)
We expect the SET to move sideways up thanks to investment sentiment which is quite bright. However, we expect the indexs gain to be limited at this time. To elaborate, the energy
sector might see pressure from crude which turned to decrease.From late this week to next week, there are a number of factors that need monitoring. They include trade talks at a G7 summit meeting, as well as FED and ECB meetings next week where investors will pay attention to interest rate and end of QE. Given that, we continue to like domestic more than global play thanks to the Thai economy which is strong, stable politics, and a general election which is anticipated to take place early next year.
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06
June
2018
Daily Focus : 6 June 2018,Bet on domestic and laggard plays. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 626)
We expect the SET to move sideways up as we anticipate the market to continue to see positive momentum from yesterdays gain. Meanwhile, crude began to increase, helping
support energy shares. However, we continue to view that the indexs gain will be capped at 1,740-1,745 as the market keeps a close eye on global trade talks at a G7 meeting scheduled on June 8-9. In this regard, we continue to view that the domestic play,particularly those that recorded a sharp fall recently and continue to lag behind peers, will outperform the market at this time.
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05
June
2018
Daily Focus : 5 June 2018,Bet on domestic and laggard plays. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 685)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways as it continues to lack catalyst in the near term. Crude continued to decrease and hit its eight-week low after supply in the U.S.
continued to increase. This put a weight on the energy sector.Whats more, investors need to keep a close eye on global trade at a G7 summit meeting scheduled to be held on June 8-9 whether there will be positive development or not. In this regard, we continue to view the SETs gain as limited. In addition, the domestic play remains more attractive and the index will be attractive for a new round of investments at its 1,700 level.
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04
June
2018
Daily Focus : 4 June 2018,Bet on domestic and laggard plays. Accumulate on
(views 658)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways. In the near term, the index should rebound, in line with equity markets around the global which rallied thanks to strong U.S.
economic data and easing concerns over the politics in Europe.However, there is a factor that needs monitoring, i.e. global trade after a G7 ministerial meeting has criticized the U.S. decision to impose a duty on imported steel and aluminum. Given that,investors need to keep an eye on an upcoming G7 summit scheduled on June 8-9. Moreover, we expect the SETs recovery will be limited.In this regard, we view that domestic play remains more appealing and maintain our view that at the 1,700 level the SET is attractive for accumulation.
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01
June
2018
Daily Focus : 1 June 2018,Bet on domestic and laggard plays. Accumulate them on weakness.
(views 767)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways because there is no new catalyst. Internationally, there continues to be pressure. Even though Italian politics has started to ease thanks to increased likelihood that a coalition government will be formed,the concerns over trade war has returned to put pressure once again after in its latest move the U.S. has announced an import duty on steel and aluminum from the EU, Canada, and Mexico. Nonetheless,domestic factors are quite steady whether it is Thai politics, a general election, and rising economic outlook. Hence, we maintain our view that domestic play is attractive. Moreover, there is a chance it will outperform the market at this time. Finally, we are of
the opinion that at the 1,700 level the SET is attractive for a new round of accumulations.
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31
May
2018
Daily Focus : 31 May 2018,Bet on domestic and laggard plays
(views 591)
We expect the SET to rebound to test 1,730- 1,735 thanks to investment sentiment which is more relaxed after Italian politics began to develop better. To elaborate, there are
efforts to try to set up a new coalition government. Moreover, the countrys bond auction went well. Meanwhile, crude increased. This should provide support for the energy sector. Nonetheless, we expect market rebound to be limited and have to keep a close eye on any development in key factors on a daily basis, while international funds look set to continue to stream out. Given that,we view domestic play is more attractive than others at this time as a general election is on track to take place early next year, while Thai economy accelerates.
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30
May
2018
Daily Focus : 30 May 2018,Bet on laggard and defensive plays
(views 614)
We expect the SET to decrease to test its previous bottom near 1,725 after political situations in Spain and Italy are unstable. As a result, the market is concerned that it will result in a massive default. Meanwhile, crude continued to decrease by 1.7%. Hence, the energy sector should continue to see selling. In Thailand, there is a key factor that needs monitoring today, i.e. the Constitutional Courts ruling on an organic law governing the election of members of the House of Representatives. Given that, we expect defensive and laggard plays to move better than the market,particularly those depending on the domestic economy.
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28
May
2018
Daily Focus : 28 May 2018,Bet on laggard and defensive plays
(views 720)
The SET is poised to move sideways up.However, the gain is likely to be limited since there are a number of factors that need monitoring. Internationally, they comprise U.S.-China trade talks, a summit between President Trump and North Korean leader, U.S. economic data that are due out throughout the week, and the MSCI rebalance. In Thailand, investors should pay attention to the Constitutional Courts ruling on an organic law governing the election of members of the House of Representatives on May 30 and an announcement of the name of qualifiers in Bangkot - Erawan auctions. As a result, there might be speculations on PTTEP.
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25
May
2018
Daily Focus : 25 May 2018,Get on laggard defensive play. Accumulate stocks with solid fundamentals on weakness.
(views 676)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways down due to investment sentiment which is rather negative after the U.S. has canceled a summit which was scheduled in the middle of next month with North Korea. Moreover, crude decreased. As a result, the energy sector will continue to be pressured after there is already a domestic negative factor, i.e. the governments policy to hold diesel and cooking gas prices. Next week, there will be key factors that need monitoring, i.e. a Constitutional Courts ruling on an organic law governing the election of members of the House of Representatives on May 30. Given that, the SETs recovery will be capped at this time. In addition, we see the lower band of this round
at 1,720 or 1,700 at worst.
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24
May
2018
Daily Focus : 24 May 2018,Bet on laggard play
(views 633)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways. Although the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting has somewhat eased the concerns over a rate increase, there are
anxieties over U.S.-Chian trades and a summit between President Trump and North Korean leader whether it will take place or not. In Thailand, investors still need to keep monitoring on an election of members of the House of Representatives, which the Constitutional Court will rule on May 30. In this regard, we believe that the SETs upside will continue to be capped. Moreover, laggard counters should outperform the market at this time.
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23
May
2018
Daily Focus : 23 May 2018,Buy laggard play on weakness
(views 645)
Today, the market will turn their attention to the Constitutional Courts ruling on organic laws governing the election of members of the Senate and the House of Representatives
whether it will affect the roadmap for a general election or not. No matter what the outcome is, we believe the impacts to be temporary and short-lived. Meanwhile, fund flow which looks set to continue to stream out will put pressure at this time. Crude that modestly increased should not have much impact on the energy sector. Hence, we expect the SET to move sideways down and there is a chance it will trade lower to test yesterdays support.
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22
May
2018
Daily Focus : 22 May 2018,Bet on laggard domestic plays
(views 611)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways up after crude continued to increase and provide support for the energy sector. In addition, Thai economy was better than expected,
leading to an upward revision. Since the economy is strong and grows at accelerating rate, this should help create investor confidence. However, we expect gain to be limited. Whats more,there will be a ruling on the election of members of the Senate and the House of Representatives tomorrow, which will have impacts on the timing of a general election.
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21
May
2018
Daily Focus : 21 May 2018,Bet on laggard play. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 652)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways up thanks to investment sentiment which has eased after U.S. and China have confirmed their stance not to engage in trade wars.
Moreover, we expect the ICT sector to continue to provide support after the concerns over 1800-MHz frequency auction have disappeared. Nonetheless, there are still key factors that need to monitoring, i.e. 1Q18 GDP which is due out this morning. If it beats the consensus estimate of above 4%, there is a chance the market will revise up its forecast. Having said that, we expect gain to be limited as the Constitutional Court is about to rule on organic laws related to the election of members of the Senate and the House of Representatives in the middle of this week.
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18
May
2018
Daily Focus : 18 May 2018,Bet on laggard play. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 650)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways down within 1,730-1,740. In general, the market continues to lack catalysts after U.S. bond yield increased. Moreover, the trade talks
between the U.S. and China do not progress. In Thailand, there are key factors that need monitoring next week. They comprise 1Q18 GDP and Constitutional Courts ruling on the election of members of the Senate and the House of Representatives. However, we view that a fall will serve as an opportunity to accumulate stocks with solid fundamentals. Whats more, we believe the market will respond to the strong Thai economic growth which will accelerate.
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17
May
2018
Daily Focus : 17 May 2018,Bet on laggard play. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 757)
We expect the SET to move sideways. However,we believe the index, in general, is still in retreats after U.S. bond yield continued to rise. In addition, the US-North Korea tensions
increase. This will continue to put pressure on international funds to stream out. In this regard, we see the lower band for this round of retreats at 1,730-1,740. Having said that, we view this round of retreats as an opportunity to accumulate stocks with solid fundamentals because we believe that the market is yet to reflect Thai economic growth which is strong and looks set to accelerate.
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16
May
2018
Daily Focus : 16 May 2018,Bet on laggard play. Buy on weakness.
(views 709)
We expect the SET to decrease due to investment sentiment which is dull after the U.S. bond yield surged above 3% once again, which has caused the Vix Index to increase 13.1% overnight. In addition, international funds turned to stream out by a large volume. Hence, we maintain our view that the market remains in retreat this month. Specifically, we see the indexs lower band at about 1,730-1,740. In general, although 1Q18 earnings results were strong, it was not good enough to trigger an upward revision in market EPS. Having said that, we continue to view that a retreat serves as an opportunity for a new round of accumulations since Thai economy is strong and grows at accelerating rate.
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15
May
2018
Daily Focus : 15 May 2018,Bet on earnings play, particularly healthcare and tourism
(views 598)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways up. However, the gain will be limited to 1,780. Looking into the week, there is a factor that needs monitoring, i.e. the second round
of US-China trade talks, which began to show a positive signal lately thanks to ZTE. Today is the last day of 1Q18 earnings season. In this regard, the sectors that report outstanding earnings, e.g. auto,hospital, and hotel will outperform the market at this time.
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14
May
2018
Daily Focus : 14 May 2018,Bet on earnings play
(views 951)
We expect the SET Index to move sideways up after its strong rally last Friday. However, we expect the gain to be capped at 1,770-1,780 since there is no fresh catalyst to provide
support. Moreover, 1Q18 earnings season nearly comes to an end early this week. Although its generally strong, there is no significant positive surprise that leads to an upward revision. Hence, we view that laggard counters with strong profit outlook should continue to outperform the market.
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11
May
2018
Daily Focus : 11 May 2018, Bet on earnings play, particularly healthcare
(views 681)
We expect the SET to rebound intraday after U.S. CPI in April increased at a lower rate than expected. Given that, the market is more relaxed about the prospect that the Fed
will hike policy rate more than three times this year. Nonetheless,we continue to view that market recovery will be capped as persistent fund outflow put pressure on large-cap stocks. As a result, we view that the market is still in retreat. Taking from its technical picture, there is a chance the index will decrease this time to test its previous low of 1,730. In this regard, we expect stocks that report surprise earnings, e.g. healthcare counters, will outperform the market.
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10
May
2018
Daily Focus : 10 May 2018,Bet on laggard earnings play
(views 614)
We expect the SET to rebound in the near term,supported by energy shares because crude rallied to its high in three and a half years after the U.S. has withdrawn from its nuclear
agreement with Iran. However, we continue to view that the indexs recovery will be capped at 1,770 as international funds continue to stream out. Moreover, listed companies 1Q18 earnings results do not offer significant positive surprises. In this regard, we view that the market will continue to move down.
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09
May
2018
Daily Focus : 9 May 2018,Bet on laggard earnings play
(views 661)
We expect the SET to remain in retreat.However, the energy sector might provide some support after it was sold heavily yesterday. In the end, the U.S. has withdrawn from the
nuclear agreement with Iran and imposed a new round of sanctions against the country. Although crude saw sell-on-fact in the beginning, it bounced back to trade above US$70. Meanwhile, listed companies 1Q18 earnings results are mediocre so far. As a result,we expect the SETs gain to be capped at 1,770-1,780.
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08
May
2018
Daily Focus : 8 May 2018,Bet on laggard earnings play
(views 755)
We expect the SET to move sideways up as the energy sector continues to benefit from crude which surged above US$70 a barrel as President Trump is about to decide whether the
U.S. will withdraw from the nuclear agreement with Iran or not tonight. No matter what the outcome is, we view that crude and energy counters will face selling in the near term. This week, there is one key factor sector that needs monitoring, i.e. listed companies 1Q18 earnings results as more will be released. If they do not deliver significant positive surprises, we view that the markets gain will be capped at 1,800 at this time.
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07
May
2018
Daily Focus : 7 May 2018,Bet on earnings and energy plays
(views 684)
We expect the SET Index to rebound, led by energy counters after crude continued to rally and touch its peak in three and a half years thanks to tight supply, particularly if the U.S.
imposes a new round of sanctions on Iran on May 12. Although U.S. employment data came in slightly below expected in terms of the number of jobs and wage, they have slightly eased inflationary pressure and a Fed rate increase. Having said that, we expect gain to be limited at 1,800 at this time.
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04
May
2018
Daily Focus : 4 May 2018,Bet on laggard earnings play
(views 674)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways. Tonight, there is one key factor that needs monitoring,i.e. U.S. labor data in April. If it implies that the labor market is
stretched more than expected, this might trigger a concern over inflation and an anxiety that policy rate will be raised more than four times this year. In this regard, the market might retreat in the near term. However, we believe that loss will be limited at this time as the energy sector continues to provide support thanks to the high crude price, particularly if the U.S. imposes a new round of sanctions on Iran on May 12, 2018.
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03
May
2018
Daily Focus : 3 May 2018,Bet on laggard earnings play
(views 727)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways down. Although the FOMC maintained its policy rate, as expected,the Committee indicated that U.S. inflation nearly reached its target
of 2%. As a result, there is even a higher possibility that policy rate will be raised more than three times this year. At this point, there is about 38% probability for a fourth rate increase, a factor which we believe the market has not quite factored in. In this regard, there is a chance the SET will retreat in the near term. Moreover, we view
that laggard counters with low foreign holding should outperform the market.
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02
May
2018
Daily Focus : 2 May 2018,Bet on laggard earnings play
(views 673)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways as the market continues to keep their eyes on the ongoing FOMC meeting and the eurozones 1Q18 GDP tonight. Meanwhile, the latest U.S. PCE inflation in March came in at 2%, the Feds long-term target. Given that, there is a higher chance the Fed will hike policy rate more than three times this year. Finally, we expect sell-in-May this year. As a result, we view that laggard stocks that are expected to report strong 1Q18 profit will outperform the market.
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30
April
2018
Daily Focus : 30 April 2018,Bet on earnings play
(views 669)
We expect the SET to move sideways because although U.S. 1Q18 initial GDP forecast was made at a rate that is higher than expected, markets did not respond very positively. This
week, there are key factors that need monitoring, i.e. an FOMC meeting and the eurozones GDP. In Thailand, the SET will be closed tomorrow. Since there is no clear positive catalyst, we expect speculation in stocks with strong 1Q18 profit outlook.
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27
April
2018
Daily Focus : 27 April 2018,Bet on earnings play
(views 615)
We expect the SET to move sideways up because investment sentiment is more relaxed after U.S. bond yield started to move below 3%. Moreover, the ECB maintained its monetary
policy, as expected, and signaled that it would continue to stimulate its economy in the months ahead. Nonetheless, we expect todays gain to be limited as all eyes are on an initial forecast of U.S. 1Q18 GDP. In addition, listed companies in Thailand will begin to report more earnings results in the next two weeks.
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26
April
2018
Daily Focus : 26 April 2018,Bet on earnings play
(views 586)
We expect the SET to move sideways after U.S. bond yield rose above 3%, the highest in over four years. This serves as a key factor that pressures the market and keeps international
funds to flow out. Whats more, there are factors that need monitoring. They comprise ECB and BoJ meetings, as well as the initial forecast of U.S. 1Q18 GDP. In Thailand, PTTEP will report 1Q18 earnings results today. Given that, we believe stocks with strong 1Q18 profit outlook will perform better than the market at this time.
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25
April
2018
Daily Focus : 25 April 2018,Bet on earnings and defensive plays
(views 597)
We expect the SET to continue to decrease today due to a negative investment sentiment in the U.S. after U.S. bond yield began to break 3%. This has put pressure on international
funds to continue to stream out. Moreover, crude started to decrease. Hence, the energy sector which sharply rallied lately might be sold to lock in profit and to reduce near-term risks. In this regard, defensive counters and stocks with strong 1Q18 profit outlook should perform better than the market.
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24
April
2018
Daily Focus : 24 April 2018,Bet on earnings and laggard plays
(views 645)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways down after U.S. bond yield continues to rally to where its now close to its psychological level of 3% and its four-year peak. Given that,the Baht decreased, pressuring international funds to continue to stream out. Whats more, there should be selling in PTT shares,which will begin trading at a new par. Hence, we continue to view that laggard stocks with strong 1Q18 profit outlook will see speculation and perform better than the market at this time.
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23
April
2018
Daily Focus : 23 April 2018,Bet on earnings and laggard plays
(views 713)
We expect the SET to move sideways down after U.S. bond yield hiked to touch 2.96%, the highest in four years. This is negative for the market because it makes earnings yield gap
decrease. In addition, crude started to increase at a slower rate. As a result, upstream energy counters might see selling to lock in profit after they have sharply increased in the last two trading days. In particular, PTT will begin to sell at a new par tomorrow. In Thailand, keep an eye on March trade balance which is due out today. Given all that, we believe laggard stocks and counters that are anticipated to report strong 1Q18 earnings will outperform the market at this time.
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20
April
2018
Daily Focus : 20 April 2018,Bet on earnings play
(views 640)
We expect the SET to move sideways down after its sharp gain yesterday. In addition, concerns over bond yield start to return after it increased to above 2.9% lately and approached its previous peak in February. In the meantime, most banks reported inline earnings results. Given that, the market lacks support, while investors opt to wait to see impacts from banks decision to remove fund transfer fee through their digital platform in 2Q18. Today, the Committee on Energy Policy Administration (CEPA) will consider new gas price structure. Hence, we view that laggard counters and stocks that are anticipated to report a strong profit in 1Q18 should serve as a target for speculation and outperform the market at this time.
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19
April
2018
Daily Focus : 19 April 2018,Bet on energy play
(views 690)
We expect the SET to continue to move in positive territory thanks to the energy sector because crude has rallied by over 3% to touch its three-year peak after oil inventories were down. Today, there are two factors that need monitoring.First, seven banks will release their earnings results. Second, the National Legislative Assembly will select a new set of board members for the NBTC. As a result, we expect gain to be limited. In the near term, the energy sector, particularly upstream ones, should serve as a target for speculation and outperform the market.
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18
April
2018
Daily Focus : 18 April 2018, Continue to bet on domestic and defensive plays
(views 656)
We expect the SET to rebound to test 1,760-1,770 because investment sentiment gets brighter after the earnings results of listed companies in the U.S. came in strong. Moreover, the concerns over Syria has eased. In Thailand, banks will deliver their earnings results throughout this week. Yesterday, it began with TISCO which posted strong earnings results, as expected. However,global risks comprising trade and politics persist. Hence, investment in domestic play should be safer after Thai GDP grows at an
accelerating rate.
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17
April
2018
Daily Focus : 17 April 2018,Continue to bet on defensive and domestic plays
(views 697)
We expect the SET to decrease in the beginning,in line its regional peers which saw losses while Thailand was on holiday. Moreover, curde also decreased. However, we expect loss
to be limited and there is a chance we will see recoveries intraday because we expect the negative impacts from the precision strikes against Syria to be limited after they did not trigger a confrontation between the U.S. and Russia as they had been anticipated.Nonetheless, since international factors remain uncertain, we continue to view that domestic and defensive plays will continue to outperform the market.
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12
April
2018
Daily Focus : 12 April 2018,Continue to bet on defensive and domestic plays
(views 557)
The SETs gain yesterday was capped at a resistance of 1,765-1,770. Moreover, trading volume continued to decrease before Thailand has a long holiday. As a result, we expect
the index to move within a narrow range of 1,758-1,770. Banks are likely to continue to lead, while the energy sector is supported by crude which rallied by about 2%. Although we have revised down our index target for this year by 30 points to 1,870, we continue to be on the buy side thanks to supports from the economic recovery.Whats more, although the markets EPS estimated growth decreases, it continues to imply a double-digit growth rate of 10%.
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11
April
2018
Daily Focus : 11 April 2018,Continue to bet on defensive and domestic plays
(views 626)
Given yesterdays positive momentum, we expect the SET to continue to increase. In particular, we expect the index to be slightly up to 1,765-1,770, supported in the morning by
the bright investment sentiment in risk assets and crude which has sharply increased by over 3%, which should help the energy counters continue to outperform the SET. Meanwhile, banks started to recover better and there should be speculation in SCB after the pressure over PACE has decreased. Although we have revised down our 2018 index target by 30 points to 1,870 points after we have cut our profit estimate for banks and the agro-food sector, we strategically maintain our BUY recommendation thanks to supports from economic recovery and the SETs 2018E EPS which, despite a cut, continues to imply a growth rate of over 10% Y-Y.
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10
April
2018
Daily Focus : 10 April 2018,Continue to bet on defensive and domestic plays
(views 722)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways up, supported by optimisms after foreign investors net buy position yesterday was the largest in 17 trading days. Moreover, crudes rally of over 2% will support energy counters to outperform the market.Nonetheless, we do not expect upside to open wide instantly because Thailand is about to go on a long holiday. In addition, the market should wait for 1Q18 earnings preview. Meanwhile, its anticipated that the Cabinet will not consider an extension for the payment of 900-MHz frequency at todays meeting, which might put pressure on the ICT sector in the near term. Given all that, we recommend investors continue to trade defensive and domestic plays in the near term. Do sell if the SET increases and vice versa.
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09
April
2018
Daily Focus : 9 April 2018,Continue to bet on defensive and domestic plays
(views 715)
We expect the SET to move sideways to build up base. To elaborate, the index might slightly recover thanks to positive momentum seen late last week. Moreover, investment
sentiment in Asia this morning is not much capped by the fall in U.S.equity markets. However, we predict gain to be limited because trading volume looks set to be weak before a long Songkran holiday.Whats more, there is a chance the energy sector will be capped by the decrease in crude. The banking sector is yet to see any recovering signal. Their daily short sales position began to accelerate to Bt1.4bn from Bt1.2bn in March 2018. However, we believe downside will start to decrease as valuation is supported by economic recovery and listed companies profit growth.
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05
April
2018
Daily Focus : 5 April 2018,Continue to bet on defensive and domestic plays
(views 636)
We expect the SET to recover in line with global equity markets which recovered after the U.S. started to back down and expressed its readiness to negotiate rather than to wage a war.Nonetheless, the SETs recovery is anticipated to be capped at about 1,740 due to domestic factors. In particular, banks will continue to put a cap and Thailand is about to go on a long holiday. As a result,the SET will continue to be volatile throughout this month in line with news development. In the near term, we recommend that investors trade to bet on rebounds and trim portfolio in order to reduce risk. In the mid to long run, we view that downside is limited because earnings yield gap has widened while PE has decreased.Whats more, upside starts to increase when compared to the SET target of 1,900.
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04
April
2018
Daily Focus : 4 April 2018,Continue to get on defensive and domestic plays
(views 700)
We expect the SET to move sideways. Moreover,we believe it will continue to be highly volatile due to the concerns over trade war, which have an impact on market sentiment.
According to the latest development, the U.S. has disclosed a list of 1,300 Chinese imports that it will impose import duty, while China prepares for its retaliation shortly. Although we believe trade wars will not take place, markets will be hit by such news and concerns throughout this month. In this regard, we maintain our call for investors to bet on defensive and domestic plays that do not have specific downside risks because they should be safe and outperform the market.
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03
April
2018
Daily Focus : 3 April 2018,Continue to bet on defensive and domestic plays
(views 607)
We expect the SET to decrease today due to the negative investment sentiment after there are concerns over trade wars after China has started its retaliation measure against the
U.S.A. Such move is in line with our estimate that April will be volatile due to such matter. Moreover, crude tumbled 3% yesterday,pressured by energy counters. In this regard, we view that investors continue to bet on domestic and defensive plays, e.g. the hospital and tourism sectors, at this time because they moved better and outperformed the market lately.
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02
April
2018
Daily Focus : 2 April 2018,Continue to bet on defensive and domestic plays
(views 639)
We expect the SET to continue to rebound.Specifically, we anticipate it to move sideways up thanks to technical signal that is more positive. Nonetheless, we predict the gain to be modest. As global trade barriers loom throughout this month, they will hurt market sentiment. According to the latest development, China has started to impose import duty on 128 U.S.
products. In this regard, we view that domestic and defensive plays, e.g. hospitals and tourism counters, are safer and more attractive.
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30
March
2018
Daily Focus : 30 March 2018,Park cash in defensive play in near term
(views 694)
We expect the SET to see a technical rebound in the near term thanks to its recovery after the index tumbled to test a key support of 1,760. Moreover, investment sentiment this
morning is more relaxed. However, we expect gains to be small since there are still a number of factors that need monitoring. In Thailand, there are specific factors by sector. Internationally, there are concerns, particularly over trades. Given that, we recommend investors park cash in domestic defensive plays, e.g. hospital and tourism counters, at this time.
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29
March
2018
Daily Focus : 29 March 2018,Buy on weakness
(views 735)
We expect the SET to decrease in the beginning due to concerns over banks after BBL and KTB have also removed their fund transfer fee through digital channel. However, we expect
the market to rebound because we view the impacts as modest. In addition, we believe that if general election is postponed, it will be long. Hence, it will imply continued state policies. Finally, the BoTs upward revision for Thailands GDP reflects its confidence and the countrys solid economic outlook. Given all that, we view market retreats as a chance to accumulate fundamental stocks and recommend that investors continue to focus on domestic play.
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28
March
2018
Daily Focus : 28 March 2018,Bet on domestic play
(views 653)
We expect the SET to move sideways. Although the index is hit by negative investment sentiment from the U.S. because tech shares tumbled, we believe its attributed to specific
factors. In Thailand, we expect the MPC to maintain policy rate at 1.5% at a meeting today. Whats more, there might be an upward revision on its economic forecast, particularly on exports and tourism. This will help support sentiment, especially for domestic play which we lately pay more attention than global one due to uncertainties over trades and politics.
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27
March
2018
Daily Focus : 27 March 2018,Bet on domestic play
(views 669)
We expect the SET to rise to test 1810-1815 thanks to bright investment sentiment because the concerns over trade war has eased after all parties realize that it will benefit no one. Moreover, its anticipated that they will come to term in the end. However, we believe there are still noises over such issue. They will continue to hit the market and cause volatility. In this regard,we view that domestic play remains more attractive. Following our call for investors to accumulate on weakness, we now suggest thatinvestors hold and let profit run in order to sell at the previous peak.
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26
March
2018
Daily Focus : 26 March 2018,Bet on domestic and energy plays
(views 628)
We expect the SET to be volatile. To elaborate,we believe that the index will move sideways down today owing to negative investment sentiment from abroad after there are concerns
over global trade war. Although we believe President Trumps aggressive policies will soften in the end because a strong stance will not benefit anyone, we view that domestic plays is more attractive at this time because market sentiment is negative. Other than that, we like the energy sector after crude continued to increase.
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23
March
2018
Daily Focus : 23 March 2018,“Super Domestic and Defensive” Play
(views 732)
The SET is expected to slump, tracking sharp falls in US. Fears of a potential trade war has triggered after Trump signed an executive order implementing tariffs on up to US$60bn in
imports from China. China, in response, will oppose tariffs to US products. Investors also eye on Congress to pass a spending bill by Mar-23 to end government shutdown.
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22
March
2018
Daily Focus : 22 March 2018,Bet on energy play
(views 636)
We expect the SET to move sideways up, led by energy counters after crude continued to surge for two trading days.Meanwhile, the FOMC increased policy rate by 0.25% yesterday, as expected, and is anticipated to increase the rate a total of three times this year. However, the latest Dot Plot implies a higher probability that there will be one additional rate hike in 2018.Moreover, the Fed has also revised up its GDP forecast for 2018-2019, reflecting the U.S. central banks positive view. We view that broad investment sentiment looks more relaxed and focus on domestic or energy plays for now because there is certainty over global trade.
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21
March
2018
Daily Focus : 21 March 2018,Bet on laggard play. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 710)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways due to lack of fresh catalyst. Globally, all eyes are fixed on results from an upcoming FOMC meeting, particularly the Fed Chairs
accompanying statement and a new dot plot, in order to assess the chance of four rate hikes this year. In Thailand, there will be a report on imports and exports in February (in which the market expects to grow by about 9%). In the near term, we view that laggard and domestic plays will outperform the market, while the energy sector should benefit today from the sharp gain in crude price.
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20
March
2018
Daily Focus : 20 March 2018,Accumulate on weakness
(views 718)
We expect the SET to continue to decrease after investment sentiment is negative due to international factors.Moreover, the SET has gone under 1,800, its psychological support.
Looking ahead, the market will continue to keep an eye on results from an upcoming FOMC meeting, particularly the Fed Chairs accompanying statement and the dot plot, in order to assess a chance for interest rate hike which is anticipated to take place four times this year. In Thailand, the SET is capped after the NLA has decided to submit a request for the Constitutional Court to rule on the election of Senators. This has triggered concerns that it will affect General Elections road map. Nonetheless, we are not concerned about such factor and view that retreats will serve as a chance to accumulate fundamental stocks.
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19
March
2018
Daily Focus : 19 March 2018,Bet on laggard play
(views 626)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways as investors wait for an FOMC meeting in the middle of this week when policy rate is anticipated to be raised to 1.50-1.75%. However,investors also need to keep an eye on the Fed Chairs accompanying statement and a new dot plot to see how they signal the future interest rate outlook. Moreover, there are negotiations of Europe,China, and Japan to exempt themselves from President Trumps levies on imported steel and aluminum. Since the SETs movement is likely to remain capped, we continue to view that laggard play remains attractive at this time, particularly those domestic plays,when there are concerns internationally over trade and politics.
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16
March
2018
Daily Focus : 16 March 2018,Continue to bet on domestic and laggard plays
(views 669)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways due to lack of fresh catalyst. To elaborate, the market remains concerned and keeps an eye on global trade whether there will be
retaliation on U.S. trade policies or not. Next week, there is an important factor that needs monitoring. Specifically, there will be an FOMC meeting, at which its widely anticipated that there will be an interest rate hike to 1.50-1.75%. In this regard, we continue to believe that domestic and laggard plays are safe and should outperform the market at this time.
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15
March
2018
Daily Focus : 15 March 2018, Continue to bet on domestic and laggard plays
(views 720)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways, similar to the picture seen in the last two trading days.Foreign investment sentiment is not very bright. It remains capped by the concerns over possible trade wars, particularly between the U.S. and China. Retail sales in February came in lower than expected, while producer inflation was in line. In this regard, we
view that domestic and laggard plays remain safe and should outperform the market at this time.
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14
March
2018
Daily Focus : 14 March 2018, Continue to bet on domestic play
(views 703)
We expect the SET to move sideways. Although U.S. inflation in February came in as expected, pressure persists due to a number of international factors after President Trump has
dismissed his Secretary of State. Whats more, there were concerns over trade wars between China and the U.S. after there was news that the U.S. President planned to impose import tariffs on Chinese products, while crude continued to decrease. In this regard, we maintain our view that domestic play remains attractive and will outperform the market at this time.
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13
March
2018
Daily Focus : 13 March 2018, Bet on Domestic Play
(views 765)
We expect the SET to move sideways in the near term after the index sharply increased yesterday. Most of the pressure is from international factors. Specifically, President Trump
has lately signed an executive order to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum. Such act has caused market concern over retaliation. Moreover, crude turned to decrease. In this regard,energy counters should decrease. On this backdrop, we view that domestic play should outperform the market today thanks to Thailands strong economic fundamentals.
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12
March
2018
Daily Focus : 12 March 2018,Let profit run
(views 670)
We expect the SET to strongly rebound today after the index decreased to test a support of 1,760 and was able to bounce back. Moreover, U.S. economy is strong in all aspects. To
elaborate, the countrys non-farm payrolls came in higher than expected. Moreover, its hourly wage increased at a smaller rate than expected. This has eased the pressure on inflation and interest rate increase. Crude surged by over 3%, providing support for the energy sector. We view that the SETs decrease last week was just a nearterm portfolio adjustment of each investor type. Moreover, we continue to believe that the SET will turn to increase to test 1,900 once again after Thai economy grows at accelerating rate.
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09
March
2018
Daily Focus : 9 March 2018,Trade within range and accumulate on weakness.
(views 786)
We expect the SET to move sideways up after President Trump has signed an executive order to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, as expected. However, such levy does
not include Canada and Mexico. Moreover, he described his stance as flexible and was ready for negotiation. In Europe, the ECB has decided to maintain its monetary policy, as expected. In addition,the central bank has revised up its GDP forecast and has removed the sentence, mentioning its readiness to impose additional stimulus, from its statement. This implies the central banks confidence over its economic growth outlook. However, we expect the SETs recovery to remain capped at 1,795-1,800 after crude continued to decrease, putting pressure on the energy sector, while there is more factor that needs monitoring, i.e. U.S. employment data which is due out tonight
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08
March
2018
Daily Focus : 8 March 2018,Bet on defensive play. Accumulate fundamental stocks on weakness.
(views 608)
We expect the SET to move sideways. Although investment sentiment has somewhat eased after there was news that Canada and Mexico would be exempted from the tariffs for
imported steel and aluminum, crude plunged by over 2%, putting pressure on the energy sector. In Thailand, there are important factors that need monitoring today. To elaborate, the NLA will deliberate organic laws related to members of the House of Representatives and of the Senate, which will affect a general election. In the near term, we view that defensive plays will serve as a good place to park cash. However, we are not very worried about the markets correction because Thailands economic fundamentals remain robust. As a result, we view the retreats as a chance to accumulate large fundamental stocks.
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07
March
2018
Daily Focus : 7 March 2018,Continue to accumulate fundamental stocks on weakness
(views 697)
We believe the SET will move sideways today since there is no fresh catalyst to stimulate. However, there is pressure today because Gary Cohn, President Trumps economic advisor, announced his resignation after the U.S. President pressed on with his plan to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum.In this regard, we view that the market is still in retreat. In particular, we see the indexs lower band at 1,790-1,785, a level which we see as attractive for more accumulation. After which, we predict the SET will increase thanks to Thai economic growth, which remains strong this year.
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06
March
2018
Daily Focus : 6 March 2018,Let profit run
(views 678)
The SET is likely to rebound to test 1,820-1,830 after it has sharply decreased in the past four days. Such gain should be supported by investment sentiment which has eased after
President Trump said that he might call off his plan to impose a tariff on imported steel and aluminum if he gets a new and fair NAFTA deal. Moreover, we expect the energy sector to turn to lead the market after crude jumped by over 2% overnight. Today, there is a factor that needs monitoring, i.e. the Supreme Courts ruling on Hongsa Case. We believe that this will have significant impacts on BANPU and BPP after the trading halt is removed.
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05
March
2018
Daily Focus : 5 March 2018,Continue to accumulate fundamental stocks on weakness
(views 628)
The SET is still likely to move sideways down due to investment sentiment which remains dull after the U.S. plans to impose a tariff on imported steel and aluminum. Moreover, we still
need to monitor if Italy will be able to form a coalition government after its general election or not. Nonetheless, we continue to view a retreat serves as an opportunity to buy back fundamental stocks after we have recommended our investors to cash in at the indexs previous high last week because we believe the market will turn to recover in the future thanks to Thailands economic outlook remains strong.
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02
March
2018
Daily Focus : 2 March 2018 ,Accumulate on large-cap stocks
(views 702)
The SET is still at risk that it will turn to retreat in the near term as the selling in large-cap counters in the energy sector began to get stronger, in line with crude which continued to
fall for the third straight day and has recorded a fall of 7% in that three trading days. Moreover, foreign investors selling in Thai equity accelerated, while they booked a net short position in the Index Futures by 8,300 contracts, amounting to Bt1.7bn. Finally,investment sentiment in risk assets around the globe remains negative this morning. However, we view that the SETs downside is limited because broad economy continues to be strong. In addition,listed companies earnings also increased. As a result, we view a retreat as an opportunity to accumulate large-cap counters.
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28
February
2018
Daily Focus : 28 February 2018,Buy back fundamental stocks on weakness
(views 849)
We expect the SET to continue to move down from yesterdays afternoon because investment sentiment begins to be more negative after U.S. bond yield surged to touch 2.9% once more due to Fed Chair Jerome Powells testimony that the Fed is likely to hike interest rate more than three times this year.However, we are not concerned over such factor because the hikes come as a result of the strong economy. In this regard, we view market retreats present a chance for a new round of accumulations of fundamental stocks after we have recommended yesterday that our investors cash in at the previous high.
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27
February
2018
Daily Focus : 27 February 2018,Take short-term profit at previous high
(views 682)
We expect the SET to continue to move up after technical signals improve. Moreover, investment sentiment remains
strong. However, the SET has sharply increased in the last two days.Hence, we view that the index should not be able to break its previous high of 1850 in the near term. Whats more, there is a key factor that needs monitoring tonight, i.e. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powells first policy statement before Congress, because it will have impacts on bond yield outlook.
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26
February
2018
Daily Focus : 26 February 2018,Bet on earnings play. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 682)
We expect the SET to rise to test 1,815-1,820 since investment sentiment remains bright after U.S. bond yield
begins to decrease. Moreover, crude continues to increase. This should continue to provide support for equity to rise. However,there is a low probability that the Thai main index will instantly surge as there continue to be factors that need monitoring this week. They include Fed Chair Jerome Powells policy statement before Congress and U.S. 4Q17 GDP (2nd forecast), while we are approaching the end of 4Q17 earnings season in Thailand. In this regard, a retreat will serve as an opportunity to accumulate stocks with solid fundamentals.
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23
February
2018
Daily Focus : 23 February 2018,Bet on earnings play. Accumulate on weakness.
(views 648)
We expect the SET to rebound in the near term,supported by the energy sector after crude surged last night. In
addition, large listed companies, i.e. CPALL and BANPU, reported strong earnings. However, we expect the recovery to be capped as the concerns over U.S. inflation and interest rate persist. This is observed from the VIX Index which is yet to return to normal. In Thailand, we believe political uncertainty to have limited impact. In this regard, we view a retreat as an opportunity to accumulate stocks with solid fundamentals.
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22
February
2018
Daily Focus : 22 February 2018, Bet on earnings play and accumulate on weakness
(views 724)
We expect the SET to move in negative territory today, pressured by U.S. bond yield which surged to its four-year
high because markets expect the Fed to increase policy rate sooner than expected after the latest minutes of the FOMC meeting were released. However, we are not worried about such factor because the rise in both inflation and interest rate due to economic growth is positive. Moreover, we view that markets should need more time to
adjust themselves. In Thailand, the economy is also strong. Given that, we view a retreat as a chance to accumulate stocks with solid fundamentals on weakness.
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21
February
2018
Daily Focus : 21 February 2018, Bet on earnings play
(views 742)
We expect the SET to move sideways up, led by PTT which has reported above-estimate profit and also announced a
stock split, which serves as a positive sentiment. Moreover, the 4Q17 earnings results that have been announced so far are strong, as expected. Tonight, there is a key factor that needs monitoring, i.e. minutes of the FOMC meeting, to see how the Fed viewed inflation and interest rate after current U.S. bond yields remain high. In this
regard, we view that the retreat will be brief and takes place only to be followed by rises in the future.
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20
February
2018
Daily Focus : 20 February 2018, Bet on earnings play
(views 691)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways as the market turns its focus to listed companies 4Q17 earnings results, which will come mostly in the next two weeks. In this regard, we believe earnings will not disappoint the market. Meanwhile, 4Q17 GDP clearly recovered. This should help create confidence over economic growth momentum for this year and support the index to increase in the future.
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19
February
2018
Daily Focus : 19 February 2018, Bet on earnings play
(views 640)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways up. This morning, there is a key factor that needs monitoring, i.e.
Thailands 4Q17 GDP. In this regard, markets expect it to grow 4.4% Y-Y. Assuming its in line, it will create confidence towards the economic outlook, which remains strong this year. Meanwhile, listed companies 4Q17 earnings results will be reported mostly in the next two weeks. We believe that in general, they should not disappoint
the market. Whats more, we expect the SET to be able to increase in the future after the index has completed this downward movement.
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16
February
2018
Daily Focus : 16 January 2018, Selective Buy
(views 778)
เราคาดว่า SET จะแกว่งตัว Sideways Up ด้วยมูลค่าการซื้อขายที่เบาบางเนื่องจากอยู่ในช่วงหยุดเทศกาลตรุษจีนของหลายๆประเทศในภูมิภาค อย่างไรก็ตามตลาดเริ่มเข้าใจกับภาวะเศรษฐกิจและไม่ตอบสนองเชิงลบกับเงินเฟ้อสหรัฐฯและ Bond Yield ที่ยังปรับตัวขึ้น ราคาน้้ามันยังฟื้นตัวต่อเนื่องซึ่งหนุนหุ้นในกลุ่มพลังงาน ขณะที่ผลประกอบการบริษัทจดทะเบียนที่ออกมาส่วนใหญ่ไม่ได้สร้างความกังวลกับตลาด เราจึงเชื่อว่าตลาดน่าจะปรับตัวขึ้นได้ต่อในระยะถัดไปจากปัจจบันที่แกว่งพักฐาน
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15
February
2018
Daily Focus : 15 February 2018, Bet on earnings play
(views 647)
We expect the SET to swing up to test 1,800-1,810. Although U.S. inflation came in higher than expected,
markets did not respond very negatively as many had anticipated. In this regard, we believe that market concerns have somewhat reflected in earlier decreases. Meanwhile, the energy sector should recover today after crude turned to surge. However, we view that markets will continue to be volatile as U.S. bond yield continues to rise. Given that, we view domestic play as attractive and a market retreat will serve as an opportunity to accumulate stocks with strong fundamentals.
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14
February
2018
Daily Focus : 14 February 2018, Bet on earnings play
(views 598)
We expect the SET to move sideways due to lack of fresh catalysts. Foreign investors continue to keep their eye on
U.S. inflation in January, which is due out tonight. If it comes in higher than expected, we believe that it will pressure global stock markets because it will cause bond yield to continue to hover at a high level due to a concern that the Fed will hike interest rate sooner than expected. In this regard, we believe that stocks with specific positive factors and strong 4Q17 profit outlook will remain attractive and outperform the market at this time.
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13
February
2018
Daily Focus : 13 January 2018, Bet on domestic play
(views 802)
We expect SET to continue to rebound and test 1,810-1,815 thanks to positive sentiment. However, upside for the
market may limited as U.S. bond yield continued to stand over 2.8%. Moreover, investors still keep eyes on U.S. inflation data released tomorrow. If the figures are higher than street forecast, there will be more concern on interest rate hike and add more volatility on global markets once again. We continue to view that domestic play
are safe and should outperform the market.
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12
February
2018
Daily Focus : 12 February 2018, Continue to bet on domestic and dividend plays
(views 648)
We expect the SET volatility will ease and bounce this week but not strong enough to stand above 1810 points
as investors keep eye on US’s CPI and PPI released on Wednesday. The market sentiment could turn negative should the inflation figures are higher than expectation.
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09
February
2018
Daily Focus : 09 February 2018, Continue to bet on domestic and dividend plays
(views 628)
We expect the SET to sharply decrease to test 1,770-1,760 one more time since investor sentiment is negative. To
elaborate, Wall Street continued to see a sell-off due to concerns over inflation and policy rates. Moreover, U.S. Senate will vote on a budget bill today to avoid a government shutdown. In this regard, we continue to view that domestic and dividend plays serve as a safe haven to park cash at this time. For mid- to long-term, we maintain
our view that a retreat serves as an opportunity to accumulate.
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08
February
2018
Daily Focus : 08 February 2018,Bet on domestic and dividend plays
(views 615)
We expect the SET to continue to swing wildly as U.S. bond yield remains unsettled. Moreover, the energy sector
continues to be pressured by crude which tumbled by 2.5% and the U.S. government will hit the deadline for its debt ceiling tonight.Although there was news lately that Senate leaders have reached a two-year budget deal, we continue to view that domestic and dividend plays are safe and should outperform the market in the near term. In the longer term, we maintain our view that the market will continue to rise. Hence, a retreat will serve as an opportunity to
accumulate.
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07
February
2018
Daily Focus : 07 February 2018, Bet on domestic and dividend plays
(views 652)
We expect the SET to rebound to test 1,810 thanks to investment sentiment, which is more at ease after Wall
Street turned to surge. However, market volatility remained high. Specifically, commodity, i.e. crude and coal, continued to plunge. Whats more, investors still need to keep an eye on U.S. debt ceiling,
which will reach a deadline tomorrow. In this regard, we believe domestic and dividend plays will serve as a safe haven to park cash at this time. Moreover, if the market sharply decreases, we view it as a new round of opportunities to accumulate fundamental stocks.
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06
February
2018
Daily Focus : 06 January 2018, Bet on defensive and dividend plays
(views 775)
We expect the SET to fall to test 1,780 due to negative sentiment after investors sold off risk assets due to
concerns over U.S. inflation and fled to safe-haven ones, i.e. U.S. dollar and gold. Moreover, bond yield started to narrow. Late this week, there are risks that need monitoring, i.e. U.S. debt ceiling. In this regard, we believe defensive and dividend plays will serve as a safe haven to park cash at this time. Whats more, we view market
retreats as a new round of opportunities to accumulate stocks with solid fundamentals because Thai economy remains strong.
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05
February
2018
Daily Focus : 05 January 2018, Bet on dividend and laggard plays
(views 721)
We expect the SET to fall to test 1,805-1,810 due to negative sentiment after Wall Street tumbled by over 2%
since there were concerns that interest rate might be revised up quickly and more than expected after the strong economic data imply inflation. In this regard, there is a chance that the sectors that recorded the largest gain lately will be sold the most. Moreover, dividend and laggard plays will be used as a haven to park cash at
this time. Nonetheless, we believe that the market will only retreat in the near term. After which, it will turn to increase. In this regard, we see retreats as an opportunity to accumulate stocks with solid fundamentals.
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02
February
2018
Daily Focus : 02 February 2018, Bet on earnings and laggard plays
(views 632)
We expect the SET to move sideways down as investment sentiment turns negative after U.S. bond yield continued
to surge. However, crude increased. Hence, the energy sector should help provide support. Looking ahead, we believe key factorsthat will determine market direction at this time will be listed companies earnings results for 4Q17. If they do not come in higher than expected and lead to an upward revision, the SET should see a limited gain. Moreover, there is a chance the index will retreat in the near term. In this regard, we expect both sector and stock rotations to those that lag behind peers.
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01
February
2018
Daily Focus : 01 February 2018, Bet on earnings play
(views 685)
We expect the SET to move sideways up thanks to investment sentiment, which is more relaxed after the FOMC has
maintained its policy rate as expected. Moreover, the committee has given a view that they are not worried about inflation. Crude began to recover after it had decreased for two consecutive days. We believe key factor that will drive the SET up at this time is listed companys earnings results. If they do not come in higher than
expected to the point of an upgrade, we view that the SETs rise will be limited and there is a chance the Thai main index will fall in the near term.
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31
January
2018
Daily Focus : 31 January 2018, Bet on mid- to small-cap stocks and accumulate big-cap stocks on weakness
(views 684)
We expect the SET to continue to retreat, a scenario we have anticipated, because the SET has increased quite
quickly. Broad investment sentiment remains negative after Wall Street tumbled. Moreover, crude continued to fall by over 1% yesterday. As a result, energy counters remain capped. Tonight, although we expect the FOMC to maintain policy rates, we still need to see if there will be additional signals. In this regard, mid- to
small-cap stocks should become a target for speculation at this time. For large-sized counters, we view that market retreat will serve as a chance to buy them back after our recommendation to sell some earlier.
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30
January
2018
Daily Focus : 30 January 2018, Bet on mid- to small-cap and earnings Play
(views 660)
We expect the SET to decrease today due to a concern over U.S. inflation, which has caused U.S. bond yield to
increase. Meanwhile, crude also turned to fall. As a result, energy counters should see pressure from selling to lock in. Looking ahead, we recommend our investors to keep an eye on the upcoming FOMC meeting to see if there will be additional signals about the economy and monetary policy or not. In Thailand, as more results from the
real sector are about to come in, we view that mid- to small-cap counters with strong 4Q17 profit outlook should outperform the market at this time. Moreover, we believe that when the market decreases, it will be a time to accumulate large-cap stocks after we have recommended our investors to sell some to lock in profit
earlier.
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29
January
2018
Daily Focus : 29 January 2018, Bet on earnings play
(views 874)
We expect the SET to continue to rise today thanks to the bright investment sentiment after the SET turned to
increase last Friday. Moreover, Wall Street was also up on the last trading day of last week. Crude continues to increase, providing support for the energy sector. Looking ahead, we expect the FOMC to maintain its policy rate at 1.25-1.5% at a meeting this week, while listed companies in the real sector will report more earnings. Hence, we believe stocks with strong 4Q17 profit outlook should outperform the market. Moreover, if the market falls as in last Friday, we view it as an opportunity to buy large-sized stocks.
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26
January
2018
Daily Focus : 26 January 2018, Bet on laggard and earnings plays
(views 653)
We expect the SET to continue to fall. Although the delay in the general election is as expected, i.e. 90 days, investment sentiment in Asia is dull this morning. Moreover, the sharp Baht appreciation will pressure the economy to decrease, in line with a decline in future exports. We clearly saw selling after large-cap counters has disclosed their earnings results. In addition, the SET currently trades at 2018 PE of 15-16x, not attractive enough for international funds to turn quickly in. In this regard, we continue to focus on underperforming stocks with solid growth potential, even although domestic confidence is yet to be restored, as well as
counters with strong 4Q17 earnings results.
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25
January
2018
Daily Focus : 25 January 2018, Bet on energy and earnings plays
(views 627)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways up, led by the energy sector after crude continued to increase.
However, there is one key factor that needs monitoring today, i.e. a meeting of the National Legislative Assembly to consider about a general election. If the date is postponed by more than 90 days, the period that the market has factored in, this might serve as a negative factor for confidence and make the market retreat. However, we continue to believe that the energy sector and stocks with strong 4Q17 profit outlook will continue to outperform the
market at this time.เราคาดว่า SET จะยังแกว่งตัว Sideways Up ได้โดยกลุ่มพลังงานคาดว่ายังคงน้าตลาดหลังราคาน้้ามันดิบยังคงปรับตัวขึ้นต่อเนื่อง อย่างไรก็ตามประเด็นส้าคัญที่ต้องจับตาวันนี้คือการประชุมสนช.เกี่ยวกับการเลือกตั้ง ซึ่งเรามองว่าหากเลื่อนออกไปเกิน 90 วัน ซึ่งเป็นระยะเวลาที่ตลาดรับรู้ไปก่อนหน้าแล้วอาจเป็นลบต่อความเชื่อมั่นและท้าให้ตลาดพักฐาน เรายังเชื่อว่าหุ้นในกลุ่มพลังงานและหุ้นที่มีคาดมีก้าไร 4Q17 แข็งแกร่งจะยังสามารถ Outperform ตลาดในระยะนี้
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24
January
2018
Daily Focus : 24 January 2018, Continue to bet on stocks with strong 4Q17 profit outlook
(views 664)
We expect the SET to move sideways. The energy sector should continue to provide support for the market after crude hit its three-year peak. However, we expect gain to be limited because we still need to keep an eye on the National
Legislative Assembly (NLA)s meeting to discuss a general election,the composition of the Senate, and earnings results of the real sector. In this regard, SCC will announce its results today, which we expect to be not so good. PTTEP will post its results late this week.If there is no positive surprise, we believe the market will retreat
due to selling to lock in near-term profit. As a result, we continue to view a retreat as an opportunity to buy large-cap counters. In the near term, bet on earnings results of mid- to small-sized counters that are anticipated to report a strong 4Q17 profit.
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23
January
2018
Daily Focus : 23 January 2018,Bet on stocks whose 4Q17 profit is expected to hit alltime high
(views 651)
We expect the SET to move sideways up thanks to the brighter investment sentiment after U.S. Congress has passed a temporary budget bill, which put an end to the government
shutdown until February 8. However, we view that the market still needs to keep an eye on earnings results of large-cap counters in the real sector which will be announced shortly whether they are in line or not. If they continue to offer disappointment, as banks, we believe there will be pressure from selling to lock in a profit in the near term. Although this will make the market retreat, we view it as an opportunity to buy back large-cap counters. For now, we view that mid- to small-sized counters with strong 4Q17 profit outlook
will outperform the market.
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22
January
2018
Daily Focus : 22 January 2018,Bet on stocks with strong profit outlook
(views 658)
The SET should be volatile in line with its Asian peers because the U.S. government was partly shut down after the Senate did not pass a temporary budget to fund the government.
However, this is not the first. Moreover, investors continue to pay attention to domestic earnings, particularly KTB which will deliver its results today. After which, SCC and PTTEP will report their earnings results this week. As a result, investors should place selective bet and there will be sell-on-fact from time to time.
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19
January
2018
Daily Focus : 19 January 2018,Bet on mid- to small-cap counters and earnings play
(views 726)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways down due to investment sentiment which is not very bright. To elaborate, we still need to see if there will be measures to cope
with U.S. debt ceiling to order to avoid a government shutdown tonight. Meanwhile, large banks reported weaker-than-expected earnings results. Given that, there should be pressure from selling,which will make the market retreat. However, we view it as an opportunity to buy back large-cap stocks after our sell recommendation to lock in profit earlier. In this regard, mid- to small-sized stocks with strong 4Q17 profit outlook should outperform the market.
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18
January
2018
(views 672)
We expect the SET to move within the positive territory and continue to hit new high thanks to bright investment sentiment after U.S. equity market surged thanks to strong corporate earnings and the Feds Beige Book which came in positive.In Thailand, there are supports from a recent rise in the minimum wage by Bt5-22. This is positive for the commerce sector.
Nonetheless, investors need to keep an eye on banks earnings results which are due out on January 18-19. If there is no positive surprise, there is a chance the market will retreat in the near term,which will serve as an opportunity to buy back large-cap counters.
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17
January
2018
Daily Focus : 17 January 2018, Bet on earnings and laggard plays
(views 900)
We expect the SET to move sideways down today due to a rather negative sentiment because U.S. equity market turned to end lower after it gained intraday by over 1%.
Such weak performance is due to investors concern over a government shutdown this Friday. Moreover, crude retreated in the near term. This should result in selling in the energy sector after it has increased for many days in a row. In Thailand, banks will announce their earnings results during January 17-19. In this regard, there is a chance they will see sell-on-fact if there is no positive surprise. Moreover, it is possible that there will be a rotation to laggard sectors, e.g. property development. Finally, there will be speculation in stocks with strong 4Q17 earnings outlook.
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16
January
2018
Daily Focus : 16 January 2018,Bet on earnings play
(views 609)
We expect the SET to move sideways today since the market begins to lag positive sentiment after U.S. equity markets were closed last night. Nonetheless, the energy sector will
continue to support the market thanks to the upward oil price outlook. Meanwhile, there is one important factor that needs monitoring, i.e. banks earnings results which are due out during January 17-19. If they do not come in higher than expected, there is a chance there will be sell-on-fact, which will result in retreats.However, we view that such loss will serve as an opportunity to accumulate large-cap stocks. In the near term, we view that counters with strong 4Q17 profit outlook should see speculation.
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15
January
2018
Daily Focus : 15 January 2018,Bet on earnings play
(views 601)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways up thanks to positive sentiment after U.S. equity markets continued to hit a new high. In addition, foreign investors began to turn to record a net buy position in equity once again. Nonetheless,the market needs to keep an eye on an extension of U.S. debt ceiling as well as banks earnings season this week. If they do not deliver higher-than-expected performance, we believe the market will retreat, which will serve as an opportunity to accumulate large cap counters once more. For the time being, we continue to believe that stocks with solid 4Q17 profit outlook will continue to outperform the market.
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12
January
2018
Daily Focus : 12 January 2018,Bet on earnings play
(views 709)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways up after the Thai main index hovered above 1,800.Moreover, there is a positive sentiment from the rise in U.S. equity markets. However, we believe gain is limited at 1,810-1,813 as the market keeps their eyes on 4Q17 earnings performance. In this regard, banks will start reporting their results today, starting with TISCO. After which, more will come in next week. If they fail to produce a positive surprise, this might put pressure on the index to retreat. Given that, we expect stocks with strong 4Q17 profit outlook will outperform the market.
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11
January
2018
Daily Focus : 11 January 2018,et on stocks with strong profit outlook and specific factors
(views 675)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways down. Although the energy sector will continue to benefit from crude which continued to increase by 1% yesterday, it is capped by the news that China might slow or stop U.S. treasury purchase. Nonetheless, we believe this is just a game that China uses to negotiate on trades and politics. Hence, it will only have
short-term impacts. What concerns us is the fact that the SET has sharply increased. In this regard, we believe that the market will turn to pay attention to 4Q17 earnings results whether it will come in strong as expected or not. Whats more, we view that stocks with specific factors and strong 4Q17 profit outlook will outperform the market at this time.
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10
January
2018
Daily Focus : 10 January 2018,Bet on mid- to small-cap counters and energy play
(views 687)
We expect the SET to move sideways up. Such gain should be led by energy shares after crude surged its peak in over three years. Nonetheless, we continue to view that the market
remains on its downward path in the near term. In addition, we expect gain to be limited at about 1,800-1,813. Looking ahead, we believe that the market will begin to pay attention to 4Q17 earnings results. If they are stronger than expected, we believe it will create confidence and support the SET to increase in the future. In this regard, we maintain our view that mid- to small-sized counters as well as laggard counters will continue to outperform the market at this time.
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09
January
2018
Daily Focus : 09 January 2018,Bet on mid- to small-cap stocks and laggard play
(views 676)
We expect the SET to continue to move down after the index has been increasing in the past one month.Technically, the graph begins to signal retreats after the Thai main
index failed to hover above 1,800. Moreover, the Baht started to turn to depreciation, while foreign investors continued to book a net sell position in the equity market. In this regard, we maintain our view that large-cap counters will continue to decrease.However, mid - to small-cap counters as well as laggard plays are anticipated to be attractive at this time and, as a result, serve as a target for buying.
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08
January
2018
Daily Focus : 08 January 2018,Bet on mid- to small-cap counters
(views 673)
We expect the SET to begin to move sideways.Although the index has positive sentiment from U.S. stock markets,which continued to hit a new high, we believe its gain will begin to
be limited at a psychological resistance of 1,800. Although the Baht continued to appreciate, such gain is only attributed to foreign investors buying in bonds. In this regard, we view that when large cap counters begin to retreat, the market will turn their attention more toward mid- to small-cap stocks; both of which are anticipated to serve as a target for speculation at this time.
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05
January
2018
Daily Focus : 05 January 2018,Sell into Strength and focus on laggard play
(views 682)
We expect the SET to continue to climb to test a psychological resistance at 1,800 after the index has passed its previous high of 1,789. Investment sentiment remains bright after
U.S.s ADP private-sector employment data came in stronger than expected. Nonetheless, we view that the SET has quickly rallied since mid-December by over 5%. Hence, there is a chance the Thai index will face selling to lock in near-term profit. In this regard, we view that large-cap counters that continue to lag behind peers should outperform the market at this time.
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04
January
2018
Daily Focus : 04 January 2018, Sell into Strength
(views 629)
We expect the SET the continue to climb because investment sentiment is quite bright after the DJIA continued to hit a new high for the second straight day.Nonetheless, we believe gain will be limited as the Thai main index begins to approach its peak of 1,789 seen in 1994. Whats more, it has increased to where it is now close its average gain of 1% W-W in
the first week of the year and 2% M-M in January. Hence, there is a good chance that the SET will face profit-taking in the near term.
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03
January
2018
Daily Focus : 03 January 2018, Up following good sentiments
(views 625)
We expect SET to move sideways up following Asia markets amid possible LTF/RMF selloff. Asian shares carved out gains tracking China’s December flash manufacturing PMI which hit
record high in 4 months at 51.5, better than market expectations of 50.7 and positive sentiment from Trump’s infrastructure plan. Historically, SET gains 1% W-W during the first week after the new year.
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29
December
2017
Daily Focus : 29 December 2017,Laggard Plays
(views 776)
After yesterday’s correction, we expect SET to move sideways amid thin volume. We do not expect another sharp correction today as good sentiments from Wall Street and regional
equities markets help.
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28
December
2017
Daily Focus : 28 December 2017,Laggard Play
(views 810)
We expect SET to move sideways with thin volume ahead of the long News Year’s weekend. SET has gained 0.6% WTD, closed to its 5-year average, then faced the possibility of
limited upside.
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27
December
2017
Daily Focus : 27 December 2017,Laggard Play and Window Dressing
(views 784)
We expect SET to move sideways up led by energy-related names after oil prices rose 2.6% touched their highest levels in more than two years. The markets continue to benefit from domestic institutes year-end buying for LTF/RMF and also window dressing rally. According to 5-year statistics, the stock market gains 0.5% W-W on average during last week of the year
with 80% probability.
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26
December
2017
Daily Focus : 26 December 2017,Laggard Play and Window Dressing
(views 624)
SET is expected to move sideways up thanks to the year-end buying for LTF/RMF with lack of negative news during the week. According to 5-year statistics, the stock market gains
0.5% W-W on average during last week of the year with 80% probability.
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25
December
2017
Daily Focus : 25 December 2017,Laggard Play and Window Dressing
(views 726)
Despite thin volume today, we expect SET to move sideways up thanks to positive sentiment from domestic institutes year-end buying for LTF/RMF and also window dressing rally in the final week of the year. 5-year statistics tell us that the stock market gains 0.5% W-W on average during last week of the year with 80% probability. Looking ahead, we still have positive view on Thai economy which expected grow in accelerating rate next year.
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22
December
2017
Daily Focus : 22 December 2017,Laggard Play and Window Dressing
(views 725)
We expect SET to move sideways up thanks to positive sentiment after U.S. Congress passes stopgap bill that extends government funding to January 19 and avoid shutdown deadline tonight. In addition, the markets continue to benefit from domestic institutes year-end buying for LTF/RMF and also window dressing rally in the final week of the year. Looking ahead, we still have positive view on Thai economy which expected grow in accelerating rate next year.
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21
December
2017
Daily Focus : 21 December 2017,Accumulate on weakness and bet on window-dressing targets
(views 773)
We expect the SET to consolidate after strong rally for 6 consecutive days totaling 36 points. In addition, most indices lost ground after the US comprehensive tax bill was passed stateside. Investors still monitor US’s 3Q17 GDP tonight and an omnibus spending plan due tomorrow. Strong fundamental stocks are worth accumulating on the back of improved economy, yearend LTF/RMF and window dressing rally.
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20
December
2017
Daily Focus : 20 December 2017,Continue to let profit run and bet on laggards
(views 629)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways up after the index was able to break its previous peak of 1,730, which makes technical signals turn positive. At an MPC meeting today, we expect the committee to maintain its policy rate at 1.5% and this should not have an impact on markets. Today, we need to keep monitoring a key factor, i.e. a passage of the draft U.S. tax reform bill by both Houses after two minor parts in the bill violates the Senates rule. Nonetheless, we expect domestic institutions buying to continue to support the market to increase at this time. In this regard, we anticipate laggards to be a target for their buying.
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19
December
2017
Daily Focus : 19 December 2017,Let profit run and place more bets on weakness
(views 701)
We expect the SET to move sideways up to test its previous high of 1,730 thanks to positive technical signals.Moreover, its supported by an optimism over U.S. tax overhaul,where markets expect the final draft to pass this week before its forwarded to President Trump for his signature before Christmas. In Thailand, domestic institutions continued to record a net buy position in equity thanks to the year-end buying in both LTF/RMF.This will serve as a driver for the SET to increase.
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18
December
2017
Daily Focus : 18 December 2017,Let profit run and accumulate more on weakness
(views 721)
We expect the SET to rise above 1,720.Moreover, there is a chance that it will increase to test 1,725-1,730 thanks to optimism over U.S. tax reform bill after there were reports that the Republican has disclosed its final draft bill last Friday. This bill will cut corporate income tax to 21% from 35% and will become effective immediately in 2018. In this regard, its
expected the draft bill will pass this week. On domestic factor,Thailand continues to benefit from the rising economy and domestic institutions buying for LTF/RMF. In this regard, we view that largecap counters will move strongly today.
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15
December
2017
Daily Focus : 15 December 2017,Buy more fundamental stocks on weakness
(views 668)
We expect the SET to move sideways down within 1,705-1,720 after the ECB maintained its fiscal policy, as expected, and signaled its readiness to do more, if necessary.Furthermore, the central bank has raised its economic forecast. However, markets did not respond positively. In the U.S., there was pressure after two Republican senators might not support a draft tax reform bill. Given that, the indexs rise remains capped.Nonetheless, we continue to view that a loss will serve as an opportunity to buy fundamental stocks after Thai economy grows at accelerating rate. Whats more, there is support from domestic institutions year-end buying for LTF/RMF. Today, there should be speculative buying in the counters that the FTSE has raised its weight.
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14
December
2017
Daily Focus : 14 December 2017,Let profit run and place more bets on weakness
(views 612)
We expect the SET to move sideways up to test 1,710-1,715 after the Fed has announced a policy rate increase of another 0.25%, as expected, and raised its economic growth forecast. Moreover, there were reports that the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives have reached an agreement on how to merge their tax reform bill. In Thailand, we continue to have a bullish view toward the SET in the second half of this month because we believe domestic institutions will continue to buy thanks to LTF/RMF.
In 2018, the SET will continue to benefit from the rising economy. In the near term, we expect speculative buying in the counters that are added into the latest SET50/SET100 calculations.
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13
December
2017
Daily Focus : 13 December 2017, Continue to trade within range and focus on domestic play
(views 623)
We expect the SET the continue to move sideways as markets continue to keep their eye on results from an FOMC meeting tonight and from an ECB meeting tomorrow.
To elaborate, the Fed is predicted to hike interest rate by another 0.25% at the ongoing meeting, while its anticipated that the ECB will maintain its monetary policy. Meanwhile,
we expect the rise in commodity price to be capped by U.S. dollar which remains on its upward path. In this regard, we view that domestic play remains attractive and should outperform the market at this time.

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12
December
2017
Daily Focus : 12 December 2017, Continue to trade within range and focus on mid- to small-sized counters
(views 613)
We expect the SET to move sideways up after crude has recovered by nearly 2% in the last two days. Moreover,U.S. nonfarm payrolls came in quite strong last Friday, while
markets did not respond negatively to the explosion in New York.The latter is observed from the recovery in U.S. equity markets.Looking ahead, key factors that investors will keep an eye on are anFOMC meeting on December 12-13 and a progress on the merger of the two draft tax reform bills. In this regard, we view that upside will be limited at this time.
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08
December
2017
Daily Focus : 8 December 2017, Trade within range in near term; wait to buy on weakness in mid- to long-term
(views 709)
We expect the SET to move sideways up. To elaborate, there is a chance it will rise to 1,710-1,715 thanks to
investment sentiment which has eased after the U.S. House of Representatives has passed a short-term spending deal which averts a partial shutdown and keeps the government running until December 22. Given that, more funds start to flow back into risk assets, while gold tumbles. However, there are key factors that need monitoring, i.e. a merger of the two draft budget bills and an FOMC meeting next week. Hence, we view that upside is still limited.
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07
December
2017
Daily Focus : 7 December 2017, Bet on mid- to small-cap domestic play
(views 646)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways down within 1,685-1,700 because we believe that the energy sector will weigh on the market after crude tumbled by nearly 3% last night. Moreover, there are important factors that need monitoring. First, there is a rise in U.S. debt ceiling before its deadline on December 8 to avoid government shutdown. Second, there is a merger of the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives draft tax reform bills. In the near term, we believe that mid- to small-sized stocks with specific factors and those benefiting from a recovery in the domestic economy will outperform the market and become a target for speculation.
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06
December
2017
Daily Focus : 6 December 2017, Trade within range for short-term and accumulate on weakness for long run
(views 717)
We expect the SET to move sideways down within 1,690-1,705 as Thailand remains in its holiday mood. Meanwhile international factors, particularly in the U.S., continue to put a cap on equity markets. Worth mentioning are a merger of the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives draft tax reform bills and President Trumps possible impeachment. Given that, the Thai market will continue to see limited upside in the near term. However, we view this as an opportunity to accumulate stocks with solid fundamentals and hang on to long-term bets on the back of the Thai economy which remains solid and the upward equity market outlook.
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04
December
2017
(views 660)
01
December
2017
Daily Focus : 1 December 2017, Continue to accumulate stocks with solid fundamentals on weakness
(views 620)
We expect the SET to move sideways up thanks to investment sentiment which seems to be more relaxed. Today, keep an eye on the U.S. Senates passing of draft tax reform bill. According to the latest information, Senator John Mccain has expressed his support on this draft bill, which is a positive signal. Meanwhile, the OPEC has extended the end of its output cap to end-2018, as markets have anticipated. We believe that foreign investors selling will decrease in December. In addition, domestic institutions buying will provide support. Nonetheless, an increase will be capped in the near term since we are about to have long holidays. In this regard, we view that a retreat serves as an opportunity to accumulate stocks with solid fundamentals.
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30
November
2017
Daily Focus : 30 November 2017, Bet on mid- to small-sized stocks with specific catalysts
(views 654)
We expect the SET to move sideways. Although the second forecast of 3Q17 GDP comes in better than most expected, while the U.K. and EU have reached an agreement on Brexit divorce bill, markets will choose to pay attention to an OPEC meeting and the U.S. senates deliberation on draft tax reform bill. Moreover, the MSCI will become effective today, which might cause market volatility in the near term. In this regard, we expect mid- to small-sized stocks with specific catalysts will outperform the market. Whats more, when the market retreats, it will serve as an opportunity to accumulate stocks with solid fundamentals.
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29
November
2017
Daily Focus : 29 November 2017, Let profit run and buy more on weakness
(views 670)
We expect the SET to continue to move within a positive territory. Moreover, there is a chance it will rise to test 1,720 one more time thanks to bright investment sentiment after Mr. Jerome Powell shared his view that easing would continue. Meanwhile, the Senate Budget Committee has resolved to pass a draft budget bill, a major development, before it forwards the draft to the Senate for further deliberation. Nonetheless, there is slight pressure after North Korea tested a missile which fell into Japanese water this morning. Having said that, we are not concerned about such issue. Whats more, we view that a loss will serve as an
opportunity to buy more stocks with solid fundamentals as we continue to have a long-term bullish view toward Thai economic growth.
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28
November
2017
Daily Focus : 28 November 2017, Selectively bets on stocks with solid fundamentals and speculate on mid-small counters
(views 645)
We expect the SET to move sideways in a range of 1,685-1,705 points. Investors look ahead to a Senate vote on tax reform set for later this week, 3Q17 US GDP, and OPEC meeting. Oil prices slipped by 1.4% last night could trigger a correction in energy and chemical shares today. We view that mid-small cap stocks should outperform the large cap counters.
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27
November
2017
Daily Focus : 27 November 2017, Selectively bet on stocks with solid fundamentals and speculate on mid-small counters
(views 679)
We expect the SET to move sideways in a range of 1,685-1,705 points. Crude oil prices near two-year highs should support energy and petrochemical shares after a big sell-off last week. Lots of economic data and events to be released this week, namely 3Q17 GDP of the US and OPEC meeting. Investors also eye on whether the GOP-led Congress will be able to pass a tax cut bill before year-end. We view that the market’s retreat serves as an opportunity to buy stocks with solid fundamentals in order to bet on economic growth, which is predicted to accelerate in the future.
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24
November
2017
Daily Focus : 24 November 2017, Accumulate big-cap stocks and speculate mid-small cap ones
(views 667)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways following a relatively quiet overnight trading session in the US markets. A slump in Chinese equities yesterday due to a tighter lending rules are still in focus today. However, we see this is an opportunity to accumulate more large-cap stocks with solid fundamentals as we believe that the SET can stay above 1,730 level in the future.
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23
November
2017
Daily Focus : 23 November 2017, Speculate on mid-to-small cap counters
(views 624)
We expect the SET to move sideways with subdued trading in the US carrying over into Asia. The energy sector should lead the market after crude increases. We believe the buying from LTF/RMF as well as possible fund inflows after the rise in Thai economic growth will help support the market to continue to increase. In the short run, there is a chance that medium- to small-sized counters will outperform the market.
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22
November
2017
Daily Focus : 22 November 2017, Continue to let profit run and bet on mid- to small-cap counters
(views 629)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways up thanks to investment sentiment which remains positive after U.S. stock markets continued to hit a new high. Moreover, President Trump said that he would give a major tax reform as Christmas present, while we believe the buying from LTF/RMF as well as possible fund inflows after the rise in Thai economic growth will help support the market to continue to increase. In the short run, there is a chance that medium- to small-sized counters will outperform the market.
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21
November
2017
Daily Focus : 21 November 2017, Continue to let profit run and bet on consumption play
(views 717)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways up thanks to investment sentiment, which remains quite bright thanks to supports from international factors, i.e. the optimism that U.S. tax reform plan will succeed before Christmas. In Thailand, the market continues to give weight to Thailands economic growth outlook. To elaborate, its anticipated that Thai GDP will continue to grow at above 4%, driven by support from the service and export sectors as well as domestic consumption, which signals a recovery.
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20
November
2017
Daily Focus : 20 November 2017, Continue to let profit run and accumulate big-cap stocks
(views 625)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways up after the technical picture has turned positive since last Friday. Moreover, crude surged by 2.6% last Friday. This provides support for the energy sector and, particularly, benefits PTTEP. Today, Thailand will announce its 3Q17 GDP. In this regard, markets expect it to increase 3.9% Y-Y. If its in line, we believe markets will positively respond and have confidence that growth will accelerate to touch 4% from 4Q17 to 2018.
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17
November
2017
Daily Focus : 17 November 2017, Let profit run and bet on stocks with specific catalysts
(views 638)
We expect the SET to rise to test 1,700. Moreover, there is a chance that it will hover above such level after investment sentiment turns bright. To elaborate, the U.S. House of Representatives has passed draft tax reform bill last night and forwarded it to the Senate for further consideration. As a result, market concern over such reform has somewhat eased. Moreover, it is anticipated that Thai economy will accelerate in 4Q17 and 2018 to above 4%. In this regard, we continue to have a bullish view toward the market outlook that it will rise to test its historical high.
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16
November
2017
Daily Focus : 16 November 2017, Buy on weakness stocks with solid fundamentals and bet on mid- to small-cap shares with specific catalysts
(views 674)
We expect the SET to move sideways thanks to investment sentiment which remains dull. In particular, there is pressure from U.S. tax reform plan after part of the Obamacare is repealed in the draft proposed by Senate Republicans. This increases political uncertainty. Whats more, crude continued to fall yesterday. Nonetheless, we continue to view that a retreat will serve as an opportunity to accumulate stocks with solid
fundamentals as we maintain our bullish view toward Thai economic growth, which is in accelerating phase. Finally, the support from year-end buying in LTF/RMF should help support the market.
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15
November
2017
Daily Focus : 15 November 2017, Buy on weakness stocks with solid fundamentals and bet on counters with above-estimate 3Q17 profit
(views 645)
We expect the SET to ease to below 1,700 intraday due to dull investment sentiment after Japan reported slightly lower-than-expected 3Q17 GDP. Moreover, crude tumbled by nearly 2% yesterday, putting pressure on the energy sector. Nonetheless, listed companies earnings are broadly strong. As a result, we continue to have confidence that growth will continue into 4Q17 and 2018. In addition, we maintain our view that a retreat will serve as an opportunity to buy stocks with solid fundaments. However, mid- to small-sized stocks with aboveestimate profit should outperform the market at this time.
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14
November
2017
Daily Focus : 14 November 2017, Accumulate on weakness stocks with solid fundamentals and bet on counters to be added to MSCI
(views 635)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways due to lack of fresh catalyst. Investors continue to keep an eye on the progress of U.S. tax reform plan and 3Q17 earnings season is about to end. We continue to view that a retreat to a support of 1,680 will serve as an opportunity to accumulate stocks with solid fundamentals. Moreover, we anticipate there will be near-term speculation on the counters to be added to the MSCI, which will help them to outperform the market.
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13
November
2017
Daily Focus : 13 November 2017, Selectively buy stocks with solid fundamentals on weakness and bet on stocks in commerce sector
(views 655)
We expect the SET to move sideways after there is no fresh catalyst to provide support. Moreover, it is nearly the end of 3Q17 earnings season. Nonetheless, we continue to view a retreat as an opportunity to accumulate stocks with solid fundamentals as we expect economic growth to accelerate. In addition, there is near-term support from the governments shopping stimulus, which started on November 11. Since this has
triggered positive sentiment for consumer spending, we expect speculation in the commerce sector.
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10
November
2017
Daily Focus : 10 November 2017, Buy stocks with solid fundamentals on weakness
(views 665)
We expect the SET to move in negative territory. Specifically, we anticipate it to fall to test 1,695-1,700 due to dull investment sentiment after the market is pressured by the U.S. after Senate Republicans revealed details of draft tax reform bill that are different from the one proposed by the House of Representatives. Nonetheless, we continue to view a fall as an opportunity to buy stocks with solid fundamentals to bet on
economic growth, which will accelerate in the future thanks to economic stimulus and a rise in government investment.
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09
November
2017
Daily Focus : 9 November 2017, Bet on stocks with strong 3Q17 profit outlook
(views 630)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways as crude is still in retreats. Moreover, there was news that Senate Republicans might postpone tax reform bill by another one year after they lost their election in New Jersey and Virginia. In Thailand, the market should continue to give weight to listed companies 3Q17 earnings results. Hence, we continue to believe that stocks with strong 3Q17 profit outlook will outperform the
market since they are a target for speculation.
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08
November
2017
Daily Focus : 8 November 2017, Bet on mid- to small-sized stocks with strong 3Q17 profit outlook
(views 644)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways since the market starts to lack fresh catalyst. In particular, crude turned to fall after a number of straight gains. This morning, keep an eye on Chinas trade balance in October. We believe that the market will continue to pay attention to domestic companies 3Q17 earnings results; most of which is about to come in shortly. In this regard, we view that in a sideways movement small-to-mid-sized stocks with strong 3Q17 profit outlook will be a target for speculations and outperform the market.
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07
November
2017
Daily Focus : 7 November 2017, Bet on commerce sector and stocks with strong 3Q17 profit outlook
(views 673)
We expect the SET to continue to move in positive territory thanks to a bright investment sentiment. Moreover, we expect the energy sector to continue to lead the market, supported by crude which continued to surge by 3.1% yesterday. Today, we anticipate speculative buying in commerce counters as the Ministry of Finance will propose a stimulus that allows tax deductible on consumer spending during November 11-30 at a Cabinet meeting today.
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06
November
2017
Daily Focus : 6 November 2017, Bet on stocks with strong 3Q17 profit outlook
(views 594)
We expect the SET to move sideways up since the energy sector should see support from the sharp gain in crude price. Moreover, markets did not negatively respond to U.S. nonfarm payrolls in October, which came in lower than expected. In Thailand, there is a catalyst thanks to a news report that the Ministry of Finance prepares to launch a stimulus to stimulate the economy late this year. Hence, there is a chance that we will see buying to speculate on the commerce sector. Moreover, a large number of companies will report their earnings results this week.
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03
November
2017
Daily Focus : 3 November 2017, Selectively bet on stocks with solid fundamentals when they decrease and speculate on counters with strong 3Q17 profit outlook
(views 664)
We expect the SET to move sideways after President Trump has announced that he will nominate Mr. Jerome Powell as the next Fed chairman, as markets have anticipated, while ADVANC and PTTEP reported slightly above-estimate 3Q17 earnings results yesterday. Moreover, we expect buyback in ICT shares after they have tumbled. We view that the market’s retreat serves as an opportunity to buy stocks with solid fundamentals in order to bet on economic growth, which is predicted to accelerate in the future.
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02
November
2017
Daily Focus : 2 November 2017, Continue to bet on stocks with strong 3Q17 profit outlook
(views 720)
We expect the SET to move sideways. In Thailand, large-cap counters, i.e. ADVANC, PTTEP and IRPC, will deliver their 3Q17 earnings results today. On the international front, the FOMC meeting held in the last two days resolved to maintain its policy rate at 1-1.25%, as expected. Whats more, foreign news agencies also reported that President Trump has nominated Mr. Jerome Powell as the new Fed chairman, as markets have anticipated. Given such nomination, there should not be significant changes in the monetary policy.
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01
November
2017
Daily Focus : 1 November 2017, Let profit run and bet on stocks with strong 3Q17 profit outlook
(views 630)
We expect the SET to move up to test 1,730 thanks to a bright investment sentiment after U.S. consumer confidence index in October came in stronger than expected. Moreover, the pressure from foreign investors selling began to decrease. Moreover, they have turned to record a net long position in the Index Futures. Looking ahead, there are key factors that need monitoring, i.e. FOMC meeting and a nomination of the new Fed chairman. In addition, 3Q17 earnings results of many large companies are about to be out, beginning with SCC today. If they do not come in lower than expected, we believe that the market should still be able to continue to increase.
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31
October
2017
Daily Focus : 31 October 2017, Selectively bet on stocks with strong 3Q17 profit when they decrease
(views 683)
We expect the SET to move sideways down after U.S. tax reform will take place at a slower-than-expected rate. To elaborate, it will now decrease to 20% by 2022. Moreover, Chinas manufacturing PMI in October came in lower than expected, while there are a number of factors that need monitoring. They include central bank meeting in many countries (i.e. Japan, the U.K. and the U.S), a nomination of the new Fed chairman, and earnings results of several large companies in Thailand (i.e. PTTEP, SCC, ADVANC, and IRPC). Finally, foreign investors continued to record a large net sell position in the equity market. Given that, the market should be in a more cautious mode.
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30
October
2017
Daily Focus : 30 October 2017, Let profit run and bet on stocks with strong 3Q17 profit outlook
(views 635)
We expect the SET to continue to move in positive territory. The energy sector should lead the market after crude increases. Moreover, there is support from anticipation that Mr. Jerome Powell, a dovish candidate, will be appointed as the next Fed chairman. Domestically, there is a factor that needs monitoring, i.e. 3Q17 earnings results of the real sector. In this regard, there will be buying to bet on stocks with strong profit outlook.
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27
October
2017
Daily Focus : 27 October 2017, Let profit run and continue to bet on stocks with strong 3Q17 profit outlook
(views 598)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways within positive territory as investors positively respond to ECB meeting results, which continued to support the easing of its monetary policy. In the U.S., the House of Representatives approved draft 2018 budget bill, another important step toward President Trumps tax reform plan. Nonetheless, markets will continue to watch on key factors. First is the appointment of a new Fed president. According to the latest report, there was news that Janet Yellen had been out of the Fed Chair race. Second is listed companies in the real sector, which will begin to deliver their 3Q17 results next week.
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25
October
2017
Daily Focus : 25 October 2017, Continue to bet on stocks with strong 3Q17 profit outlook
(views 610)
We expect the SET to move sideways up thanks to investment sentiment, which is bright. However, we expect upside to be capped in the near term as Thailand is about to be on a holiday. In addition, listed companies in the real sector will only begin to deliver their 3Q17 earnings results next week. On the international front, investors still need to keep monitoring a nomination of the new Fed president. In this regard, we view that mid- to small-sized counters that have specific factors, e.g. strong 3Q17 profit outlook, should outperform the market.
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24
October
2017
Daily Focus : 24 October 2017, Bet on stocks with strong 3Q17 profit outlook
(views 645)
We expect the SET to move sideways up to reflect Japanese general election results and U.S. Senates passing of draft 2018 budget bill. Nonetheless, there are factors that need monitoring. They comprise the followings. First is an appointment of a new Fed president, which President Trump said that results would be out shortly. Second is ECB meeting this Thursday, at which the size of QE might be scaled back. Given that, we believe gain will remain limited. In this regard, stocks with specific catalysts, particularly those with strong 3Q17 profit outlook should outperform the market at this time.
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20
October
2017
Daily Focus : 20 October 2017, Bet on stocks with strong 3Q17 profit outlook and buy big-cap counters on weakness
(views 613)
We expect the SET to continue to decrease due to domestic institutions and foreign investors selling to lock in profits after the index has sharply rallied in the past half month. Moreover, there is pressure due to negative impact from PTTEPs impairment expense over its oil sands project, which has also affected PTT. Meanwhile, most banks earnings results did not positively surprised. In this regard, the market lacks a catalyst in the near term. Nonetheless, we view that the SETs loss serves as an opportunity for a new round of buys. In addition, we continue to have bullish view towards a recovery in the earnings results of other sectors which will follow shortly as well as the Thai economy, which is expected to accelerate.
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19
October
2017
Daily Focus : 19 October 2017, Bet on stocks with strong 3Q17 profit outlook and buy big-cap counters on weakness
(views 766)
We expect the SET to move sideways down after the index has sharply increased. In the near term, we anticipate continued pressure from selling to lock in profits. Since we are in the beginning of 3Q17 earnings season, we expect stocks with strong profit outlook to be a target for speculation at this time. Nonetheless, we continue to believe that the SET will continue to rally in the future as the economy picks up pace.
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18
October
2017
Daily Focus : 18 October 2017, Bet on stocks with strong 3Q17 earnings outlook
(views 597)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways. In Thailand, investors still need to monitor banks earnings results. Internationally, there are the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and an appointment of the Fed chair. On the latter, there is a concern that the new chair might impose even tighter monetary policy than the current one. In this regard, we believe stocks with specific factors, e.g. those with
strong 3Q17 profit outlook, should serve as a target for speculation.
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17
October
2017
Daily Focus : 17 October 2017, Focus on laggard play and buy big-cap stocks on weakness
(views 744)
We expect the SET to move sideways down in the near term after the index surged yesterday. Such movement will come as the market has their eye fixed on banks earnings results, which will come in again today and increase late in the week. In the big picture, we view that there will be no negative surprise. Meanwhile, we expect the energy sector to see support from crude which continued to increase. In this regard, we continue to view that the SET will continue to increase to a new high in the future as foreign funds continue to stream into the country.
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16
October
2017
Daily Focus : 16 October 2017, Continue to buy big-cap counters
(views 688)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways up, in line with regional equity markets after Chinas inflation in September comes in as expected. This week, there is one key factor that needs monitoring, i.e. banks earnings results. If NPL does not increase more than expected, there might not be sell on fact as in the past. Last Friday, crude continued to increase by 1.7%. This will help support energy shares. Given that, we believe big-cap counters will continue to increase and lead the market, while foreign funds continue to stream into the country.
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12
October
2017
Daily Focus : 12 October 2017, Continue to bet on big-cap stocks
(views 962)
We expect the SET to move sideways up thanks to investment sentiment which remains bright thanks to the minutes of the FOMC meeting revealed yesterday. Although a number of Fed officials were concerned over inflation, which continued to be below its target of 2%, the labor market was fully employed, while the economy recovered well. In this regard, there is over 75% probability that the Fed will further hike policy rate in December. However, domestic factors, i.e. economic recovery and stable politics, should continue to keep the current fund inflows, while large-cap counters will remain a target for investors buying.
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11
October
2017
Daily Focus : 11 October 2017, Buy big-cap counters
(views 688)
We expect the SET to continue to move in positive territory thanks to positive sentiment after the index has surged to above 1,700 following an increase in investor confidence. There is a chance that international funds will flow in at faster pace after the Baht has quickly appreciated. We believe that large-cap counters will turn to outperform the market once again as the energy sector is supported by crude which surged by 2.7% overnight. Whats more, banks will begin reporting their 3Q17 earnings results today and we believe that they will not disappoint the market
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10
October
2017
Daily Focus : 10 October 2017, Bet on mid- to small-cap counters
(views 611)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways as investors concern intensifies after there is a report that North Korea might conduct a missile test today. Given that, more foreign funds begin to stream into risk assets, e.g. gold. Moreover, we are about to enter 3Q17 earnings season, which will start with banks (whose outlook is not bright) in the middle of this week. In this regard, we view that small- to mid-sized counters will remain attractive and outperform the market at this time.
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09
October
2017
Daily Focus : 9 October 2017, Bet on mid- to small-sized counters
(views 706)
We expect the SET to move sideways after U.S. September non-farm payrolls decreased. However, U.S. employment market remained strong in the big picture. Looking ahead, the Thai index still has a key resistance at 1,700 that it has to break through. Lately, crude tumbled by nearly 3%. This put pressure on a number of energy and petrochemical shares, which have rallied sharply last Friday. In this regard, we view that mid- to small-cap counters are attractive and will outperform the market at this time.
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06
October
2017
Daily Focus : 6 October 2017, Let profit run and place more bet on weakness
(views 686)
We expect the SET to move sideways up. Moreover, there is a chance the index will rise to test 1,695-1,700 once again thanks to the bright investment sentiment after U.S. House of Representatives has approved a budget of US$4.1tn for 2018, the first step to a tax reform. Moreover, crude increased by 1.6% overnight, which will provide support for energy shares. Finally, we expect banks net profit, the first sector in the SET to be reported, to strongly recover. Hence, there should be buying in large-cap shares.
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05
October
2017
Daily Focus : 5 October 2017, Trade in short run and accumulate on weakness for mid- to long-term
(views 609)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways. In this regard, we believe that upside will be capped at 1,700 in the near term after the Fed Chairs statement at Saint
Louis did not offer additional clues or signals on policy rate increase. Meanwhile, U.S. economic data released overnight beat estimates. Hence, we view a loss will serve as an opportunity to buy stocks with solid fundamentals because we expect the SET to rise and break 1,700 level in the future thanks to the outlook for Thai economy to grow at faster pace.
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04
October
2017
Daily Focus : 4 October 2017, Trade for near term and accumulate on weakness for mid- to long-run
(views 601)
We expect the SET to continue to sideways as a number of markets in the region remain closed. Tonight, eye at U.S. private-sector employment and a statement by both the Fed Chair and the ECB President whether there will be additional signals on monetary policy or not. Meanwhile, the SET has rallied quite quickly. The index is now close to hitting 1,700, a key psychological resistance. As a result, upside is limited in the near term. Nonetheless, we continue to view that a loss will serve as an opportunity to accumulate stocks with solid fundamentals as Thai economy looks set to accelerate from 2H17 onward.
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03
October
2017
Daily Focus : 3 October 2017, Continue to accumulate stocks with solid fundamentals on weakness
(views 701)
We expect the SET to continue to move within positive territory thanks to investment sentiment, which is quite positive. Moreover, most funds continued to stream out of safehaven
assets to more risky ones after economic data in key economies were strong. For Thailand, the country remains attractive in terms of economic growth, which accelerates.
However, investors might need to exercise caution in the near term on selling to lock in profit after the SET has quickly increased. In particular, investors should keep an eye on the energy and petrochemical sectors after crude has dropped by over 2% yesterday. Nevertheless, we continue to view that a loss will serve as an opportunity to accumulate.
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02
October
2017
Daily Focus : 2 October 2017, Continue to accumulate stocks with solid fundamentals
(views 689)
We expect the SET to move sideways today and believe it will continue to do so at least for a while as there is no fresh clear catalyst to provide support. Moreover, a number of Asian equity markets are closed today. Nonetheless, we view that this is a good opportunity to accumulate stocks with solid fundamentals as optimism grows that Thai economy will pick up pace thanks, particularly, to government investment. Domestic consumption will slowly recover, while the Baht decreased lately, which is positive for exports.
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29
September
2017
Daily Focus : 29 September 2017, Accumulate more stocks with solid fundamentals on weakness
(views 677)
Although the SET ended down and foreign investors registered a net sell position in all of the three markets yesterday, there is no negative signal whatsoever. Today, the index
should move sideways to build up its base, which serves as an opportunity to accumulate in our view. Domestic economy positively develops and there is chance GDP will grow more than many have anticipated. The EEC bill has passed the National Legislative Assembly and will be in effect early next year. Domestic purchasing power begins to recover in a more diversified manner. The Baht temporarily decreases, which is positive for exports.
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28
September
2017
Daily Focus : 28 September 2017, Accumulate stocks with solid fundamentals on weakness
(views 657)
We expect the SET to move sideways up thanks to investment sentiment which is more positive after President Trump disclosed a major tax reform plan for both business and personal overnight, aiming to help support economic growth. Meanwhile, the FED will gradually revise up benchmark rate, reflecting its confidence in the economy. In this regard, more funds flowed out of safe-haven assets, particularly gold which has dropped for two straight days, to risk assets. This is positive for the equity market.
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27
September
2017
Daily Focus : 27 September 2017, Accumulate more on weakness
(views 610)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways after the Fed Chair reiterated her case on rate hike despite the low inflation. Moreover, the tensions on the Korean Peninsula continue to put a cap on sentiment. In Thailand, all eyes will be on MPC meeting today; at which we expect policy rate to be kept on hold. We continue to view that the markets current sideways movement serves as an opportunity to accumulate stocks with solid fundamentals to bet on economic growth which will accelerate going forward.
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26
September
2017
Daily Focus : 26 September 2017, Accumulate on weakness
(views 587)
We expect the SET to turn to move sideways down again after the tensions between the U.S. and North Korea intensify. Given that, most funds look set to flow into safe-haven assets, e.g. gold, Japanese yen, and Swiss franc, in the near term. Nonetheless, we believe downside is limited thanks to the energy sector which benefits from crude which surged by over 3% yesterday. In this regard, we view that a loss will serve as an opportunity to buy big-cap counters and the stocks that benefit from the EEC.
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25
September
2017
Daily Focus : 25 September 2017, Accumulate on weakness
(views 687)
Although the SET sharply decreased last Friday, the fourth in a row, we view it is simply a retreat in a round of rallies. Today, we expect the SET to be volatile, swinging back and forth between positive and negative territories. In this regard, a decrease will serve as an opportunity to buy banks, commerce counters, stocks that benefit from the EEC, and finances (because we expect the MPC to keep policy rate on hold).
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22
September
2017
Daily Focus : 22 September 2017, Bet on laggards
(views 644)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways down. Although large-cap stocks will retreat, there might be speculation on mid- to small-sized ones as well as on laggards. In the mid- to long run, we continue to view that the market is on an upward path. Moreover, there might be window dressing next week.
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21
September
2017
Daily Focus : 21 September 2017, Bet on mid- to small-cap stocks
(views 620)
We expect the SET to move sideways after the Fed maintained its benchmark rate and would begin normalization in October, as expected. However, the meeting surprisingly signaled one rate hike this year. This implies its confidence over the strong economic recovery. In this regard, the U.S. central bank has revised up its 2017E GDP growth rate to 2.2% (from 2.1%). Given that, the Dollar Index increases. Moreover, we expect funds to flow in the near term. Finally, we believe large-cap counters will move down, while mid- to small-sized ones will outperform the market.
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20
September
2017
Daily Focus : 20 September 2017, Bet on mid- to small-cap stocks and counters benefiting from EEC
(views 647)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways to wait for FOMC meeting results tonight. Should normalization begin, we expect it to have limited impact on fund flow. However, there is chance large-cap counters will retreat in the near term after they have increased. In Thailand, domestic factor is quite bright after the Thai Cabinet has approved draft EEC bill yesterday. Given that, we believe the stocks that benefit from such bill and mid- to small-cap counters will outperform the market at this time.
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19
September
2017
Daily Focus : 19 September 2017, Continue to bet on laggards
(views 646)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways up as fund continues to stream into risk assets. In addition, we view that a Feds decision to begin normalization at the FOMC meeting scheduled today and tomorrow will have limited impact on fund flow because the FED has sent advanced signal. Nonetheless, the SET has rallied by 6% in the past three weeks. Hence, there might be selling to lock in profit in the near term. Finally, we maintain our long-term bullish view toward Thai economic growth, which is accelerating and give our end-2018
target at 1,900 points.
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18
September
2017
Daily Focus : 18 September 2017, Bet on lagging large-cap counters
(views 696)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways up thanks to investment sentiment, which is quite positive. Moreover, fund continues to stream into risk assets. This week, keep an eye on FOMC meeting, which will take place on September 19-20. At the meeting, it is anticipated that policy rate will be maintained. Moreover, the Fed should disclose more detailed plan for its normalization. We have revised up our 2018 index target to 1,900 to factor in economic growth, which is predicted to accelerate to above 3-4%. In this regard, we believe large-cap counters will lead the market.
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15
September
2017
Daily Focus : 15 September 2017, Place additional bets on weakness
(views 607)
We expect the SET to move sideways down in the near term after the index has sharply increased yesterday. This morning, there is pressing factor, i.e. North Koreas missile test which flew over Japan. However, sentiment is positive because the SET has broken key resistance of 1,650. In this regard, we believe the market will continue to rise in the near future thanks to support from foreign fund which remains on its inward trend and domestic economic recovery.
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14
September
2017
Daily Focus : 14 September 2017, Bet on mid- to small-cap counters and laggard play
(views 766)
We expect the SET to move sideways up. Although the market lacks fresh catalyst to stimulate, investors need to keep their eye on Chinas manufacturing production index in August this morning. Moreover, energy counters should somewhat lead the market after crude surged by 2.2% overnight. Since we view that international fund will continue to stream into risk assets at this time, there should be rotation to the sectors or counters that continue to lag behind peers as well as mid- to small-cap counters that have specific catalyst.
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13
September
2017
Daily Focus : 13 September 2017, Bet on laggards
(views 703)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways up thanks to investment sentiment, which is bright. To elaborate, Wall Street continued to hit new high after U.S. Finance Secretary confirmed tax reform remained one of the Trump Administrations priorities and would be pushed to be completed this year. Whats more, Hurricane Irma has weakened and the tensions with North Korea has eased. Given that, we expect fund to continue to flow into risk assets. Finally, we believe the Finance Ministrys proposal for the BoT to trim policy rate in order to stimulate the economy is positive for the equity market and will not affect banks.
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12
September
2017
Daily Focus : 12 September 2017, Bet on counters benefiting from weak Baht
(views 597)
We expect the SET to move sideways up thanks to investment sentiment, which is quite bright in line with the equity market in other regions, after Hurricane Irma has weakened, which makes it possible for commodity price to recover. Moreover, the Dollar Index begins to increase. In Thailand, there is catalyst after the Permanent Secretary for Finance proposes that the BoT lowers policy rate in order to stimulate the economy. This is positive for equity markets, particularly the export sector which benefits from weak Baht.
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11
September
2017
Daily Focus : 11 September 2017, Bet on mid- to small-cap counters and laggard play
(views 667)
We expect the SET to continue to rise thanks to investment sentiment which has eased after North Korea did not conduct missile test on its National Day. Moreover, there is support from the PBOCs ease of its rule on direct forward contract for foreign currency in order to slow yuan appreciation. In this regard, we view that there is chance fund will stream into EMs. Nonetheless, gain might be limited because crude has decreased by over 3% as refineries continue to slowly recover after they were hit by Hurricane Harvey.
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08
September
2017
Daily Focus : 8 September 2017, Bet on laggard play
(views 642)
In the near term, we expect the SET to move sideways down after it has sharply increased yesterday. In addition, there was heavy short position in the Index Futures, while there was concern over North Koreas missile test. In Europe, the ECB maintained its monetary policy and would decide over its QE during autumn. In this regard, there is chance the central bank will extend the QE period after inflation forecast is revised down. Moreover, we believe that the SET will be able to rally to our target of 1,650 in the end thanks to the recovering economic outlook in Thailand as well as international fund which remains in its inward direction.
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07
September
2017
Daily Focus : 7 September 2017, Bet on mid- to small-cap counters
(views 701)
We expect the SET to move sideways up thanks to investment sentiment which is brighter after the U.S. successfully raises its debt ceiling. Moreover, crude continued to rise by 1%, providing continued support for energy shares. Nonetheless, we believe gain will be limited as markets brace for impacts from key events today. In particular, there is ECB meeting where markets will see if the central bank will trim the size of its QE and extend the period as expected, or not. In this regard, we view that mid- to small-cap counters, particularly laggards, will outperform the market.
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06
September
2017
Daily Focus : 6 September 2017, Bet on energy counters and defensive play
(views 643)
We expect the SET to move sideways down to 1,615 because investment sentiment is not bright after the tensions in the Korean Peninsula intensifies. Moreover, the ECB will hold a meeting tomorrow, at which investors need to keep close eye if the central bank will reduce the size of its QE and extend the term as it has been anticipated or not. Nonetheless, we believe energy shares will provide support for the market and limit loss after crude surged by nearly 3% overnight, while defensive play should serve as good place to park cash.
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05
September
2017
Daily Focus : 5 September 2017, Bet on mid- to small-cap laggards
(views 702)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways because we believe markets will continue to be cautious and keep close eye on the tensions in the Korean Peninsula. Whats more, ECB meeting will be held late this week, at which investors will look for clues over QE tightening. Given that, we believe mid-to small-cap laggards will outperform the market at this time after we started to see buying in such counters, which made them rally quite sharply yesterday.
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04
September
2017
Daily Focus : 4 September 2017, Bet on refinery stocks and contractors
(views 691)
Risk assets enters cautious mode once again after North Korea tested hydrogen bomb yesterday, its sixth nuclear experiment. Moreover, U.S. employment data increased at sharply lower-than-expected rate. Although it makes investors anticipate the Fed will postpone interest rate hike to the middle of next month, they will continue to keep an eye on normalization plan at a Fed meeting during this September 19-20. In this regard, regional equity markets will remain capped by such factors this morning. However, we maintain our bullish view toward Thai equity markets in the mid- to long-term and view that a loss will serve as opportunity to buy.
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01
September
2017
Daily Focus : 1 September 2017, Bet on energy counters and stocks with specific catalyst
(views 710)
We expect the SET to move sideways up after investment sentiment is quite positive thanks to support from the U.S. where tax reform is being pushed out. Meanwhile, crude surged by 2.8% yesterday after it was down for three days in a row. This will support energy shares to rise and support the market. Nonetheless, there are important factors that need monitoring today. They include Chinas Caixin Manufacturing PMI and U.S. employment data. As a result, gain might be capped in the near term.
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31
August
2017
Daily Focus : 31 August 2017, Bet on counters with specific catalyst and laggard play
(views 651)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways. Although investment sentiment is bright after U.S. 2Q17 GDP and private-sector employment as well as China manufacturing PMI in August came in stronger than expected, the index has sharply increased. Hence, there will be near-term profit taking, which will put a cap on gain. Meanwhile, we believe the MSCI and FTSE midyear review will not have significant impact on markets. In this regard, stocks with specific catalyst and laggard play should continue to outperform the market.
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30
August
2017
Daily Focus : 30 August 2017, Bet on laggard play
(views 1,110)
We expect the SET to continue to increase thanks to investment sentiment which is quite bright after markets start to turn their attention away from the tensions in the Korean Peninsula. Moreover, the SET also lags behind its regional peers, while its economy looks set to recover and domestic politics is quite steady. Nonetheless, there might be selling to lock in profit in the near term after the index has substantially rallied by 2.4% the last two days. Whats more, foreign investors turned to book a large net short position in the Index Futures by 56,000 contracts yesterday after they have recorded a combined net long position of 82,000 contracts in the past six days. However, we believe international fund will continue to flow into Thailand in the future.
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29
August
2017
Daily Focus : 29 August 2017, Bet on defensive and laggard plays
(views 671)
We continue to believe that the SET will move sideways down to 1,580-1,585, pressured by North Koreas missile test that flew over Japan this morning, which intensifies the tension in that region. Moreover, crude turned to fall quite substantially as markets expected oil inventories to rise in the near term due to Hurrican Harvey, while international fund is expected to flee to safe-haven assets, e.g. gold, Japanese yen, and Swiss franc at this time.
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28
August
2017
Daily Focus : 28 August 2017, Trade within range; focus on stocks with specific catalyst
(views 751)
We believe that the SET will continue to move sideways within 1,570-1,580 after both the FED and the ECB presidents did not give any signal on their monetary policy during their speech at the World Bank meeting in Jackson Hole. This week, markets should see support from President Trumps preparation to push through tax reform policy. Meanwhile, listed companies that are going XD this week will have an impact of 3.26 on the SET.
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25
August
2017
Daily Focus : 25 August 2017, Continue to bet on counters with specific catalyst and defensive play
(views 641)
We continue to expect the SET to move sideways within 1,570-1,580. This morning, we recommend investors keep an eye on the Supreme Courts ruling on rice pledging case. However, we view that it will not affect the market much because, no matter what, both parties can still appeal. In this regard, key factor that will have more impact on the market next week is the Fed and ECB presidents statement on global monetary policy at the World Bank symposium in Jackson Hole tonight.
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24
August
2017
Daily Focus : 24 August 2017, Continue to bet on stocks with specific catalyst and defensive play
(views 560)
We continue to believe that the SET will move sideways, pressured slightly by President Trumps threat to allow government shutdown to take place, if the Congress does not support a budget to build Mexico wall. Meanwhile, investors will continue to have their eyes fixed on World Bank symposium at Jackson Hole on August 24-26 to look for clues on monetary policy signal, particularly from the FED and the ECB. In Thailand, investors need to keep an eye on the Supreme Courts ruling on rice pledging case tomorrow. Although this is not the end, it might have near-term impact on sentiment.
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23
August
2017
Daily Focus : 23 August 2017, Continue to bet on stocks with specific catalyst and defensive play
(views 619)
We continue to believe that the SET will move sideways up to test 1,575-1,580 thanks to positive investment sentiment after there begins to be progress over U.S. tax reform and debt ceiling. Nonetheless, we believe gain will be limited as markets continue to keep an eye on World Bank symposium in Jackson Hole, which is scheduled during August 24-26, while the
Supreme Court will hand down a ruling over rice pledging scheme on August 25. Note the stocks that go XD today have an impact of 1.17 points on the SET.
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22
August
2017
Daily Focus : 22 August 2017, Park cash in defensive play and stocks with specific catalyst
(views 617)
We continue to believe that the SET will move within 1560-1570. Although Thai 2Q17 GDP comes in higher than expected, there are still a number of factors that investors will
keep monitoring. They comprise U.S. politics, World Bank Conference at Jackson Hole during August 24-26, Supreme Courts ruling on the rice pledging scheme on August 25. Meanwhile, the counters that go XD today will affect the SET by 0.57 point.
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21
August
2017
Daily Focus : 21 August 2017, Bet on defensive play and counters with specific catalyst on weakness
(views 697)
We continue to believe that the SET will move within narrow range of 1560-1570. Although there is support from crude which surged by over 3%, there are a number of factors that need monitoring throughout the week, which might put a cap on the SET in the future. To elaborate, besides a fall in U.S. equity markets after concern over U.S. politics, markets continue to wait for the World Bank conference in Jackson Hole. In Thailand, 2Q17 GDP will be released today. The Supreme Court will hand down its ruling over the rice pledging scheme late this week, while over 100 counters will go XD.
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18
August
2017
Daily Focus : 18 August 2017, Bet on defensive play and counters with specific catalyst on weakness
(views 618)
We expect the SET to move sideways down to test 1,562-1,5665, in line with global equity markets, which decreased because investors began to feel uncertain that President Trumps policies and stimulus would be successful after he has dissolved two economic councils. Moreover, there was pressure from a terrorist attack in Spain last night. Given that, we believe fund will seek temporary refuge in safe-have assets, while defensive play and stocks with specific catalyst should continue to outperform the market at this time.
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17
August
2017
Daily Focus : 17 August 2017, Selectively bet on stocks with specific catalyst and strong 2H17 profit outlook
(views 563)
We expect the SET to move sideways up after tensions between the U.S. and North Korea do not escalate. Moreover, minutes of the FOMC meeting indicated that a number of
Fed officials viewed that the meeting should wait for inflation to improve before making another rate hike, while its expected that details of normalization will be revealed at the next meeting. Since we continue to view that the SETs movement will not be wide, we believe that stocks with specific catalyst and strong 2H17 profit growth outlook remain attractive and will outperform the market.
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16
August
2017
Daily Focus : 16 August 2017, Bet on counters with specific catalyst and strong 2H17 profit outlook
(views 764)
We expect the SET to turn to move sideways. Although the tensions in the Korean Peninsula has cooled, there are factors that need monitoring today. They includes MPC meeting (at
which markets expects policy rate to be maintained), and minutes of FOMC meeting (where markets will search for clues over normalization and tightening). In this regard, we believe stocks with specific catalyst and strong 2H17 profit outlook will remain attractive and outperform the market. They comprise the tourism and sectors that benefit from investment, i.e. banks, contractors and building materials.
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15
August
2017
Daily Focus : 15 August 2017, Bet on rebound in near term; hold already-have position
(views 625)
We expect the SET to rebound to test 1,570, in line with regional equity markets because investment sentiment is bright after the tension between the U.S. and North Korea has decreased. According to the latest information, the U.S. pledged it would resort diplomatic measures to stem such problem. Nonetheless, crude plunged by 2.5% overnight, which might put a drag on energy shares. However, we believe other sectors will still be able to lead the market. Of all, we like the sectors that benefit from investment. They comprise banks, contractors and building materials.
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11
August
2017
Daily Focus : 11 August 2017, Bet on defensive play
(views 655)
We expect the SET to fall to 1,565-1,570 as investment sentiment is not bright after the tension between the U.S. and North Korea intensifies. Given that, most fund continues to
flow into safe-haven assets, i.e. gold, yen and Swiss franc. In Thailand, 2Q17 earnings season is about to come to an end and we are about to have a long holiday. Hence, there is chance markets will park cash in defensive dividend counters at this time.
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10
August
2017
Daily Focus : 10 August 2017, Focus on defensive play and contractors
(views 643)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways, pressured by the tension between the U.S. and North Korea, which has tendency to escalate and makes most funds flow
into safe-haven assets, e.g. gold, yen, and Swiss franc. In this regard, we view that defensive high-dividend counters are attractive and serve as a good place to park cash. Today, there will be an auction for a double-track project (Hua Hin - Nakhon Pathom). Hence, contractors should become a target for speculation.
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09
August
2017
Daily Focus : 9 August 2017, Bet on stocks with strong 2Q17 profit and dividend outlook
(views 726)
We expect the SET to move sideways down to test 1,575-1,573, pressured by a tension because President Trump has threatened to attack North Korea after there was report that
the country was able to miniaturize a nuclear warhead to load it on to a missile. Meanwhile, crude decreased after markets started to feel uncertain that the OPEC would be able to cut output as agreed. In Thailand, we are at the peak of 2Q17 earnings season. In this regard, we believe counters with specific catalysts remain attractive and serve as safe haven.
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08
August
2017
Daily Focus : 8 August 2017, Bet on stocks with strong 2Q17 profit and dividend outlook
(views 653)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways within 1,570-1,580. Since PTTEP is scheduled to go XD today, we expect it to have an impact of 0.6 point on the SET.
Looking ahead, we view that markets will continue to pay attention to 2Q17 earnings results, imports and exports, Chinese inflation and meetings of oil producing countries to discuss output cut, while the market is quite fragile at the moment. In this regard, we believe stocks with strong dividend will receive attention and serve as a place for investors to park their cash.
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07
August
2017
Daily Focus : 7 August 2017, Bet on stocks with strong 2Q17 profit outlook and contractors
(views 724)
We expect the SET to move up to test 1,585, supported by U.S. non-farm payrolls in July, which came in higher than expected and higher than the 200,000 level for the second
month in a row. This week, lots of companies will announce their 2Q17 earnings results. Whats more, there will be an auction for the double-track project (Nakhon Pathom - Hua Hin), which should make contractors more attractive after they have decreased sharply in the previous week.
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04
August
2017
Daily Focus : 4 August 2017, Continue to be on stocks with strong 2Q17 profit and dividend outlook
(views 644)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,574-1,585 as markets wait for U.S. non-farm payrolls in July, which is due out todays evening. Meanwhile, there are two pressing
factors. First is uncertainty over President Trumps position after Robert Mueller has impaneled a grand jury for the Russia investigation. Second is crude which tumbled by 1% overnight. Given that, stocks with specific catalysts, e.g. strong 2Q17 profit or dividend, will remain a target for speculation.
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03
August
2017
Daily Focus : 3 August 2017, Continue to bet on stocks with strong 2Q17 profit and dividend outlook
(views 592)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1,575-1,585 after ADP private-sector employment in July came in lower than expected. Moreover, there are factors that need monitoring. In particular, there will be BOE meeting, at which policy rate might be raised for the first time in 10 years. Whats more, U.S. non-farm payrolls are due out tomorrow. In Thailand, we still have to keep an eye on 2Q17 earnings season. In this regard, we believe that stocks with strong 2Q17 profit and dividend outlook should remain a target for speculation.
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02
August
2017
Daily Focus : 2 August 2017, Bet on stocks with strong 2Q17 profit and dividend outlook
(views 669)
We expect the SET to move sideways up to test 1,580 after investment sentiment is bright. However, we expect gain to be limited as markets continue to keep an eye on 2Q17 earnings season in the next two weeks and U.S. employment data in July, which is due out this Fridays night. Moreover, energy shares begin to lack support because crude tumbled by about 2% after it has rallied for six trading days.
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01
August
2017
Daily Focus : 1 August 2017, Bet on counters with strong 2Q17 profit and dividend outlook
(views 648)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways down after there is no fresh catalyst to stimulate. Although the energy sector continues to be supported by crude which continued to rally by over 1%, the sixth straight day, key factor that determine market direction shares is 2Q17 earnings season, which will be announced in these two weeks. Meanwhile,
foreign investors booked a large net sell/short position in risk assets, i.e. equity and futures, yesterday. Given that, we expect the SETs gain to be limited in the near term.
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31
July
2017
Daily Focus : 31 July 2017, Selectively bet on stocks with strong 2Q17 profit outlook
(views 608)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways after there was pressure from tension in the Korean Peninsula. Moreover, U.S. Senate voted against the repealing of Obamacare on Friday, triggering concern over the success outlook of other Trump policies. Nonetheless, energy shares should be able to provide support because crude continued to rally by 1.4%, the fifth gain in a row. Looking ahead, we view that there are two key issues that need close monitoring in the next 1-2 weeks. First is corporate earnings, which will determine market direction. If it is in line, we believe that it will create investor confidence. Second is international fund, which are likely to continue to stream in.
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27
July
2017
Daily Focus : 27 June 2017, Bet on counters with strong 2Q17 profit outlook
(views 714)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways up after the Fed maintained policy rate, as expected. Whats more, the U.S. central bank also signaled that it would start normalization shortly. In this regard, we expect it to take place in September. Meanwhile, crude continued to rise by 1.8%, the third day in a row, which will continue to provide support for energy and petrochemical shares. Today, we recommend investors keep an eye on PTTEP which will report 2Q17 profit this afternoon. After which, it will be ADVANC in the evening. Looking ahead, we expect international fund to continue to stream in after the Baht turned to appreciate against key currencies this morning.
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26
July
2017
Daily Focus : 26 July 2017, Continue to bet on stocks with strong 2Q17 profit outlook
(views 650)
We expect the SET to continue to go sideways up and test 1,585 thanks to investment sentiment which is quite bright after other regional equity markets have increased quite sharply. In Thailand, the energy sector should continue to support the market after crude continued to rally by over 3%. Today, keep an eye on FOMC meeting, at which we expect policy rate to remain unchanged. In addition, large-cap counters, e.g. SCC, PTTEP and ADVANC, are about to announce their earnings results in the next two days. If they come in higher than expected, this should help increase market confidence. Finally, we expect the inflow outlook to remain.
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25
July
2017
Daily Focus : 25 July 2017, Bet on stocks with strong 2Q17 profit outlook
(views 686)
We expect the SET to swing up to test 1,580 thanks probably to support from crude. Specifically, it increased by 1.3%, which should help support energy shares to rise. Moreover, international fund looks set to continue to stream in, which will help trigger buying in mid- to large-sized shares. This week, investors should keep an eye on ADVANC, PTTEP and SCC; all of which are due to report their earnings results. Finally, we expect the FOMC to maintain benchmark rate at a meeting that is scheduled to be held during July 25-26.
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24
July
2017
Daily Focus : 24 July 2017, Buy stocks with strong 2Q17 profit outlook when decrease
(views 654)
We expect the SET to decrease to 1,565-1,570, pressured by energy shares because crude tumbled by 2.5% after there was report that the OPEC would raise their oil output this month. This week, factors that need watching comprise oilproducing countries meeting and FOMC meeting at which markets expect rate to be maintained. Moreover, there are earnings results of ADVANC, PTTEP and SCC; all of which are anticipated to be unexciting. Nonetheless, we believe international fund will continue to stream in, which should help support the market.
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21
July
2017
Daily Focus : 21 July 2017, Bet on counters with strong 2Q17 profit outlook
(views 657)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways after the ECB maintained policy rate and monthly asset purchase of €60bn. However, the central bank will start discussing reduction of its QE in September. In Thailand, banks continue to see slight presure after BBLs 2Q17 net profit comes in lower than expected, while SCBs is in line. Looking ahead, fund looks set to continue to flow in, which will serve as support for the market.
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20
July
2017
Daily Focus : 20 July 2017, Selectively bet on counters with strong 2Q17 profit outlook
(views 736)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways today. Although we believe that both the BoJ and ECB will maintain their easing stance, we have to look for clue on their future policy. According to the latest information, KBANKs 2Q17 net profit comes in lower than expected, while KTBs is weak, as expected. This leaves BBLs, SCBs and BAYs for today. If they do not come in lower than estimates, we believe they will help increase market confidence. Meanwhile, we expect international fund to stream in today.
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19
July
2017
Daily Focus : 19 July 2017, Selectively bet on counters with strong 2Q17 profit outlook
(views 702)
Today, we expect the SET to continue to move sideways, pressured by the reform on U.S. healthcare bill, which might not be successful. Given that, markets were also concerned about his other policies. Nonetheless, they will also pay attention this week to banks earnings results; many of which have come in higher than expected. In the meantime, the BoJ and the ECB meeting should continue with their easing stance. Hence, international fund should continue to stream into the country in the next 1-2 months.
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18
July
2017
Daily Focus : 18 July 2017, Bet on counters with strong 2Q17 profit outlook
(views 680)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways down due to concern over Chinas liquidity after yesterday the PBOC injected 140bn yuan into the system, even though the countrys 2Q17 GDP came in strong. In the meantime, investors will continue to have their eye on the BoJ and the ECB meetings late this week, when we believe that both central banks will continue their easing stance, which will provide support for international fund to flow into the country in the next couple of months. Since Thai equity market lacks the most in the region and is the market that foreign investors bought nearly the least, it should serve as a target for this round of inflows.
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17
July
2017
Daily Focus : 17 July 2017, Bet on counters with strong 2Q17 profit outlook
(views 625)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways within 1575-1585, supported by crude which continued to rise for seven days in a row. Meanwhile, U.S. inflation and retail
sales in June came in lower than expected. Given that, markets expect the Fed to slow their policy rate hike. Nonetheless, we believe that gain will be limited as investors have their focus on banks earnings that are due out this week. If they do not miss estimates, investors will be more confident, which will support the market to continue to rise. On fund flow, foreign investors look set to continue to record a net buy position into Thailand as the Baht continues to increase.
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14
July
2017
Daily Focus : 14 July 2017, Bet on counters with strong 2Q17 profit outlook
(views 634)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways after the Fed Chairs testimony before Congress reassures markets that the central banks normalization will not affect financial markets and economic growth. Looking ahead, we expect international fund to continue to stream into Thailand. Yesterday, crude continued to increase by 1.3%, the sixth straight day. This is
positive for and will help energy shares and other large-cap counters to increase, which will support the market to increase.
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13
July
2017
Daily Focus : 13 July 2017, Let Profit Run
(views 583)
We expect the SET to rise to test 1580-1585 thanks to bright investment sentiment after equity markets around the global increased following an easing tone in the Fed Chairs statement before Congress. To elaborate, she mentioned that the Fed is ready to gradually increase interest rate if inflation remains low. Meanwhile, crude continued to rally by 1%, the second straight day, which should support energy shares as well as other large-cap counters to increase and lead the market. Moreover, the Bahts recent turn to appreciate should help support fund to stream in at faster pace.
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12
July
2017
Daily Focus : 12 July 2017, Selectively bet on stocks with strong 2Q17 profit outlook
(views 603)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways as markets keep their eye on banks earnings results. As it happened yesterday, TISCO which was the first to deliver results
reported net profit that is higher than expected. Given that, the market should feel more at ease over other banks which will follow shortly. Tonight, there is important factor that needs attention. Specifically, its the Fed Chairs statement before Congress. Meanwhile, Donald Trump Jr. revealed that he received an email, promising sensitive information on Hillary Clinton from Russia. Although this has triggered concern over President Trumps position, we expect limited impact from it.
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11
July
2017
Daily Focus : 11 July 2017, Bet on stocks with strong 2Q17 earnings estimate
(views 602)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways as markets turn their focus to banks earnings season this week, starting with TISCO today. Meanwhile, there is key factor that investors need to keep an eye on, i.e. the Fed Chairs policy statement before Congress in the middle of this week. At the G20 meeting held over the weekend, there were still issues over global warming and trade negotiation, in which the U.S. still had different views. Given that, we believe international fund will continue to flow out of Thailand.
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07
July
2017
Daily Focus : 7 July 2017, Be selective, focusing on high dividend counters
(views 663)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways down after ADP non-farm payrolls came in lower than expected. Given that, we have to keep an eye on actual figure that
is due out tonight. In addition, there is G20 meeting and informal gathering of global powers this weekend over economic matters and the North Korea situation. In Thailand, banks earnings season will start next week. As a result, we expect international fund inflow to slow as foreign investors wait for clarity.
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06
July
2017
Daily Focus : 6 July 2017, Be selective
(views 592)
We expect the SET to move with negative bias after crude plunged by over 4%. Moreover, minutes of the latest FOMC meeting indicated that a number of Fed officials were in favor of a start of normalization process in the near future. Late this week, there are several key factors that investors need to keep an eye on. They include U.S. employment data in June, G20 meeting, and informal meetings of the leaders of key global powers, at which they should discuss North Korea crisis. Given that, we expect international fund to wait for clarity and slow its movement.
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05
July
2017
Daily Focus : 5 July 2017, Be selective
(views 618)
We expect the SET to move sideways. Investment sentiment is not very bright after North Koreas test launch of its missile. Given that, international fund flowed into safe haven assets. Gold and U.S. bond yield increased, while Yen and Swiss Franc appreciated. Looking ahead, fund looks set to stream into the region at slower rate. This morning, Asian equity markets opened down, while Asian currencies depreciated. This week, there are more factors that need monitoring. They comprise minutes of the latest FOMC meeting, U.S. labor data in June, and G20 meeting. In the meantime, todays MPC meeting should have any impact on markets. In particular, we expect the Committee to keep policy rate unchanged at 1.5%.
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04
July
2017
Daily Focus : 4 July 2017, Be Selective
(views 597)
We expect the SET to continue to increase thanks to investment sentiment which is quite bright. To elaborate, the Dow hit record high, supported by the financials sector. Crude continued to increase by 2.2%, the eighth day in a row. Looking ahead, there are a number of key factors that investors need to pay attention to this week. In the U.S., its labor data in June. In Thailand, banks earnings season will start from mid-July. Nonetheless, we believe there is chance that the SET will rise to test 1,600 once more if results do not come in lower than expected.
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03
July
2017
Daily Focus : 3 July 2017, Buy on weakness
(views 605)
The SET is likely to ease after the completion of the SET50/SET100 review. Given that, markets now wait new catalyst, i.e. banks 2Q17 earnings results, which will begin from the mid of this month. In this regard, there is chance the SET will rise to test resistance of 1,600 once more if earnings results do not go below estimates.
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30
June
2017
Daily Focus : 30 June 2017, Wait to buy on weakness
(views 683)
Although the SET looks weak, its not bad. Today, there are supports from the SET50/SET100 review and window dressing. Although the market might retreat after portfolio adjustment ends, we see limited downside because investors will turn their focus back on 2Q17 earnings preview and state investments in 2H17.
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29
June
2017
Daily Focus : 29 June 2017, Bet on specific factor
(views 760)
Today, the market sees positive sentiment from a strong rally in U.S. equity market after financials shares. Moreover, crude increased, providing support for the energy sector which lagged behind others, while ECB official clarified that Mr.Draghi did not intend to signal tightening. Given that, investors were more at ease. In Thailand, we continue to expect speculations on the newly additions to the SET50/SET100 and targets for window dressing, e.g. ROBINS, BJC, ADVANC, RATCH, and BANPU. Whats more, government investments in mega projects serve as catalyst for the market. In particular, the state is preparing to sell bid envelope for three double-track lines. On this theme, attractive counters comprise SCC, CK, and SEAFCO.
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28
June
2017
Daily Focus : 28 June 2017, Refine your picks and be even more selective
(views 651)
Although the SETs upside decreases to less than 1% when compared to key psychological resistance of 1,600, we believe investors will continue to select laggards among the SET50/SET100s newly additions as well as window dressing targets, e.g. ROBINS, BJC, ADVANC, RATCH, and BANPU. Whats more, government investment in mega projects continues to serve as catalyst. On this theme, attractive counters comprise SCC, CK, and SEAFCO.
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27
June
2017
Daily Focus : 27 June 2017, Be selective
(views 644)
The SET is likely to continue to rise. Moreover, there is chance the index will increase to test 1,600 this week, supported by window dressing and portfolio adjustment in the SET50/SET100 late this week. Moreover, there is the BoTs monthly economic report for May, which should point to positive outlook, and state investment in mega projects. Nonetheless, we believe Yellens speech in London will have limited impact on markets.
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26
June
2017
Daily Focus : 26 June 2017, Be selective
(views 713)
The SET is likely to increase due to a rise in domestic economic data, i.e. exports and tourism. Given that, the BoTs monthly economic report for May should also improve. Moreover, the market will bet on the governments mega investment as well as the EEC mentioned at Thailand’s Big Strategic Move late last week. Finally, banks 2Q17 earnings preview, trading of the counters to be added into the SET50/SET100 and window dressing will support broad investment sentiment to be good.
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23
June
2017
Daily Focus : 23 June 2017, Trading Buy
(views 626)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways up, in line with the optimism over fund flow. In addition, crude starts to recover, which should help ease the selling in energy
shares, which put a weight on the Thai index lately. Meanwhile, Thailand’s Big Strategic Move has served as key factor that supports broad investment sentiment and should stimulate international fund to continue to stream into the country. Finally, banks 2Q17 earnings preview which is supported by a recovery in loans should help increase optimism in the banking sector. Nonetheless, upside might not open wide instantly because most of the bets are still in small- to mid-sized counters. This is observed from the SET:MAI ratio which continues to decrease.
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22
June
2017
Daily Focus : 22 June 2017, Bet on domestic plays
(views 597)
We expect the SET to move sideways up. Although there is pressure from crude which continued to fall by over 2%, we believe domestic plays are be able to help support the market thanks to continued state investments. Moreover, there will be an event, i.e. Thailand’s Big Strategic Move, in the next two days, which should help create confidence for foreign investors in terms of economic growth. Finally, since the Baht turns to appreciate once more, there is chance international fund will turn to flow into Thailand in the future.
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21
June
2017
Daily Focus : 21 June 2017, Buy on weakness
(views 641)
Today, we expect the SET to decrease because we believe that the energy sector will weigh after crude tumbled by over 2% last night due to a rise in supply from Libya and Nigeria. However, downside should not be large because we anticipate support from window dressing late this month. Meanwhile, the MSCIs decision to include A Share into its calculation will have limited impact because it will only become effective in May 2018. Hence, we believe fund will continue to stream into Thailand in the near future.
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20
June
2017
Daily Focus : 20 June 2017, Be selective
(views 579)
The SET is likely to continue to rally thanks to the bright sentiment in international markets after there is clarity over the Feds normalization. Moreover, key central bank meetings have passed and there is no pressure from European politics. This leaves just the MSCI whether it will allow Chinas A-shares into its index calculation today or not. In this regard, we believe impact will be limited and fund will continue to stream into EMs. Although crude which has decreased to its seven-month low might put pressure on the energy sector, this should not be a concern because they have already retreated. Finally, since the SETs upside is limited to just 1,600 points (until there is an upward revision), we recommend our investors to be more selective.
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19
June
2017
Daily Focus : 19 June 2017, Be selective
(views 639)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways today. To elaborate, we anticipate the energy sector will see support from crude which starts to recover. Whats more, there is possibility Article 44 will be invoked to tackle petroleum problem in the land belonging to the Agricultural Land Reform Office at a joint meeting between the Cabinet and the NCPO this week. If its true, it will be positive for the PTT Group. In the second half of June, there should be benefit from window dressing. Furthermore, we expect international fund to continue to stream in, which will help support the index to continue to rally going forward.
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16
June
2017
Daily Focus : 16 June 2017, Selectively buy
(views 651)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways today with key factor being the FTSE index review. Whats more, the SET will also announce additions to and deletions from the SET50 and the SET100. On fund flow, we expect foreign investors to turn to record a net buy position in the future. Moreover, there should be window dressing in the second half of June, which we expect to help support the index to continue to rally.
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15
June
2017
Daily Focus : 15 June 2017, Trade on weakness
(views 625)
We expect the SET to move sideways today after the FOMC delivered in-line meeting results. To elaborate, the U.S. central bank resolved to raise policy rate by 0.25%. Moreover,
it started to give a clearer signal on a normalization process of its balance sheet of US$4.5tn through gradual reduction of its holding of bonds and MBS this year, if the economy improves as expected. Meanwhile, the energy sector will put a cap on markets in the near term because crude tumbled last night after U.S. weekly oil inventory report came in higher than expected. Looking ahead, we believe international fund will turn to stream into EMs after recent U.S. economic data, including inflation, came in quite weak.
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14
June
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 14 June 2017, Buy to speculate
(views 627)
We expect the SET to continue to increase thanks to investment sentiment which is quite positive this morning after both U.S. and European stock markets rebounded. Having said that, we expect the gain to be limited as investors continue to wait for FOMC meeting result tonight whether there will be signals over reduction of the Feds balance sheet which currently stands at US$4.5tn and how. Moreover, we believe international fund will flow into the country in the future. In this regard, we view the indexs upside for this round at 1580.
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13
June
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 13 June 2017, Continue to trade within range
(views 651)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways, even though foreign equity markets were capped by technology shares (a situation which we expect to have limited impact on Thai equity because we do not have such kind of stock). Looking ahead, investors will continue to wait for results from FOMC meeting due to be held today and tomorrow. Although it is quite certain that policy rate will increase by 0.25%, investors still need to keep an eye on signal to reduce the size of the Feds balance sheet. Given that, we believe the index will move within 1560-1573.
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12
June
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 12 June 2017, Buy on weakness
(views 679)
We expect the SET to continue to move within narrow range. In addition, it is possible that the index will be pressured by negative investment sentiment in the beginning after international fund looks set to flow in a slower rate as markets wait for FOMC results on June 13-14, 2017 as well as BOE and BOJ meeting results on June 15-16, 2017. Nonetheless, we expect downside to be limited because we believe that the results should be in line with market forecasts. Furthermore, the SET normally
increased after the Fed raised interest rate in the past. Finally, portfolio adjustment to cope with FTSE and the SET50/SET100 index review will result in speculative buying in the counters that are anticipated to be added in.
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09
June
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 9 June 2017, Trade in near term; let profit run for mid- to long-term investments
(views 757)
We expect the SET to move in positive territory after the ECB has decided to maintain its monetary policy, as expected. In the U.K., although Theresa Mays Conservative Party leads in the upcoming general election, she might not get enough votes and need to set up a coalition government. In the U.S., former FBI Director James Comey before the Senate did not stir investor concern for Donald
Trumps presidency as well as his many economic policies. Technically, after the index increased yesterdays afternoon. Hence, there is chance it will continue to rally to test resistance of 1575.
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08
June
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : dd June 2017, Trade on weakness
(views 703)
We expect the SET to continue to move within 1560-1573. To elaborate, there is chance it will decrease first after crude tumbled by over 5%, which will put pressure on energy shares. Whats more, there are key factors that investors have to keep an eye on today, comprising the U.K. general election, an ECB meeting and former FBI Director James Comeys testimony before the Senate on Russias involvement in the recent presidential election, which might have an impact on Mr. Donald Trumps presidency. Meanwhile, the Baht turned to slightly appreciate. Given that, we expect international fund inflow to slow. Technically, we believe the index will continue to move sideways after it failed to break through resistance near 1570-1573.
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07
June
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 7 June 2017, Continue to trade within range
(views 650)
We expect the SET to continue to move sideways within 1560-1573. Tomorrow, there are key factors that investors need to keep close eye on, comprising the U.K. general election, an ECB meeting and FBI Director James Comeys testimony before the Senate in regard to pressure to end investigation over Russian intervention on U.S. presidential election. Hence, we expect international fund flow to slow while waiting for clarity. Technically, there is no material change. Since the Thai main index is still below resistance of 1570-1573, we predict it will continue to move sideways.
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06
June
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 6 June 2017, Continue to trade within range
(views 687)
We expect the SET to continue to move within 1560-1573 as investors continue to pay attention and eye at the U.K. general
election, an ECB meeting on June 8, and a FED meeting next week. Whats more, international factors, i.e. terrorist attacks and Arab countries decision to cut ties with Qatar, add in pressure. Technically, the index was unable to break through resistance near 1570-1573. Hence, it is still likely to continue to move sideways. Nonetheless, we believe there is still chance that international fund will stream into EM (Thailand included) because they have lower risk. According to the latest data, the Baht continued to appreciate and started to fall briefly below Bt34 a U.S. dollar.
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05
June
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 5 June 2017, Continue to trade with range
(views 636)
We expect the SET to move sideways within 1560-1573 after foreign equity markets did not responded negatively to U.S.
nonfarm payrolls in May which came in lower than expected. Looking ahead, markets will continue to eye at U.K. general election, an ECB meeting late this week, as well as a Fed meeting in mid-June. Technically, although the index is able to increase quite sharply after its sharp fall mid last week, it was unable to break through resistance of 1570-1573. Given that, we expect it to continue to move sideways.
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02
June
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 2 June 2017, Trade on weakness and accumulate mid- to long-term bets at supports
(views 970)
The SET looks likely to move sideways within narrow range as investors continue to keep an eye on U.S. nonfarm payrolls
tonight. Moreover, there will be U.K. general election and a Fed meeting in the next two weeks. In Thailand, there is no fresh factor. Given that, the SETs outlook will become clearer once it has passed 1566 or gone below 1558.
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01
June
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 1 June 2017, Trade on weakness; accumulate at supports for mid- to long-term investment
(views 649)
We expect the SET to move with negative bias after crude tumbled by 2.7% yesterday due to a rise in Libyas oil output. Given that, energy counters are likely to be under pressure. Looking ahead, investors will continue to keep an eye on Chinas Caixin manufacturing PMI as well as U.S. non-farm payroll. Moreover, there are key factors, i.e. FOMC meeting and general election in the U.K. Meanwhile, the Baht starts to turn to ease after the Thai currency appreciated to touch Bt34 a U.S. dollar. From a technical point of view, the index failed to break through resistance of 1575. After which, it tumbled quite sharply and began to fall below 1560 intraday. Hence, there is risk that the SET will continue to fall in the near term.
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31
May
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 31 May 2017, Trade within range; place mid- to long-term bets on weakness
(views 647)
We expect the SET index to continue to move within range of 1560-1573 after there is no fresh catalyst to provide support.
Given that, the market will continue to eye at U.S. employment data. It is due to be out this weekend, which might have an impact on the
Feds monetary policy at a meeting scheduled next month. In particular, we anticipate it to affect timing of a Fed rate hike and
reduction of the central banks balance sheet. In Europe, there are political uncertainties. In particular, there is a general election coming
up in the U.K. and Italy might also have an early election. Technically, the index continued to be unable to break through resistance of 1573.
As a result, we expect the index to continue to move sideways.
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30
May
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 30 May 2017, Trade within range; buy on weakness for mid- to long-term investment
(views 680)
We expect the SET to continue to trade within narrow range. Since a number of foreign markets are closed, the Thai main index lacks leading indicator. Looking ahead, there are quite a number of factors that need following. They comprise U.S. employment data, China PMI and general election in the U.K. Furthermore, there will be meetings of key central banks, i.e. the Fed and the ECB. Technically, the index failed to break through resistance of 1573. Hence, we expect it to continue to trade at 1563-1573.
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29
May
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 29 May 2017, Buy on weakness
(views 738)
We view that the market is in a retreating phase and expect the SET to decrease modestly because there is no fresh catalyst to provide support. Moreover, the G7 meeting held during the weekend ended with different views, offering uncertainty in global politics, while there is additional pressure coming from the news that North Korea test fired another missile which landed in Japanese waters. Technically, the SET failed to break through resistance near 1570-1573. In addition, the candlestick chart started to be more negative. Hence, we expect the index to decrease to test supports in the near term.
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26
May
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 26 May 2017, Gradually buy at supports
(views 703)
We expect the SET to move in negative territory. The loss is likely to be led by energy shares because crude tumbled by nearly 5% after markets were disappointed that OPEC meeting only extended output cut by nine months to 1Q18 and did not increase output cut. Nonetheless, we believe downside is limited because foreign investors continued net buy position in Thailand should provide support. Moreover, the Baht continued to appreciate. Technically, the SET should retreat to test supports after it failed to break through near-term resistance of 1570-1573. In this regard, we view that a fall serves as an opportunity to buy.
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25
May
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 25 May 2017, Trade short-term bets within 1560-1575; wait to place longer position at supports
(views 689)
We expect the SET to continue to move in positive territory after the Fed meeting minutes indicated that most of the committee viewed it was appropriate to raise policy rate in the near future, which is in line. Moreover, they also began to discuss a plan to reduce the size of their balance sheet by U$4.5tn. Today, we expect upside to be limited as markets continue to wait for results from OPEC meeting, at which markets anticipate an extension to their output cut by six months at least. Technically, there is resistance at 1570-1575 at which we believe the SET is unable to break through in the near term after the index has rallied by over 2% from the trough seen last week.
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24
May
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 24 May 2017, Place short-term bet on weakness; let profit on mid- to long-term positions run
(views 653)
We expect the SET to continue to rally thanks to momentum and investment sentiment which remain positive. However,
there are a number of factors that need attention. First, there are minutes of the FOMC meeting, which is due out tonight, whether there will be a signal on interest rate hike and how. Second, there is OPEC meeting tomorrow, at which markets expect output cut to be extended by six months at least. Moreover, the Thai main index has rallied by over 2% from its trough early last week. Given then, there might be pressure from selling in the near term, which will limit upside. Technically, the first resistance is at 1567-1570, at which a retreat will serve as an opportunity to accumulate, in our view.
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23
May
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 23 May 2017, Cash in short-term bet if index does not break 1560-1563; continue to hold mid- to long-run position
(views 718)
We expect the SET to move sideways after it has increased quite sharply yesterday. However, we believe the explosion
at Phramongkutklao Hospital has limited impact. Moreover, the energy sector should continue to support the market thanks to optimism that OPEC will agree to extend output cut at a meeting on May 25, while investors wait for minutes of the latest FOMC meeting tomorrow whether there will be hint about a rate hike. Technically, if the SET is
able to break through resistance of 1560-1563, it is a clear positive signal. Otherwise, we expect the index to retreat.
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22
May
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 22 May 2017, Place short-term bet if index breaks 1552; continue to hold mid- to long-term positions
(views 644)
We expect the SET index to continue to move sideways up, in line with U.S. equity markets which recovered quite
sharply after the concern over U.S. politics. Looking ahead, investors will keep close eye on the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting this week to look for signs of a rate increase. Technically, if the SET is able to go above resistance of 1552, the picture will be more positive. Moreover, there is chance it will continue to rally to the next resistances. However, if it does not, we view it as an opportunity to buy on weakness.
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19
May
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 19 May 2017, Selectively buy on weakness
(views 710)
We expect the SET index to continue to move sideways as markets continue to keep close eye on U.S. politics, even
though it starts to ease a little bit, and volatility before FED meeting next month. Nonetheless, we continue to view that the SET will be able to rally going forward after foreign fund looks set to stream back into the Asia thanks to its strong economic backdrop, while the Thai main index has sharply decreased. Technically, the SET was unable to break through resistance of 1550. Given that, it is likely to continue to move within the previous range, which serves as an opportunity to buy on weakness, in our view.
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18
May
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 18 May 2017, Selectively buy on weakness
(views 696)
In the near term, we expect the SET index to fall, in line with the negative investment sentiment as U.S. politics rocks President Trumps position and might escalate to the many stimulus plans that markets have been expecting. Nonetheless, we believe more international fund will flow back into Asia thanks to more attractive valuation and growth. Moreover, we believe selling and portfolio adjustment are coming nearly to an end after the SET has seen disappointing 1Q17 earnings results. Given that, we expect the index to rally going forward. Technically, the SET failed to break resistance of 1550. Hence, there is chance it will turn to fall. However, we view a loss as an opportunity to buy.
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17
May
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 17 May 2017, Cash in short-term bet at 1550; continue to hold mid- to long-term position
(views 713)
We expect the SET index to continue to increase after we expect domestic institutions portfolio adjustment to be
nearly over. In the U.S., the data came in overnight were quite negative. Given that, the prospect that the Fed will raise interest rate next month is down from 83% last week to 74%. Moreover, there is chance international fund will turn to flow into risk assets. Technically, there is chance the index will rise to test resistance near 1550. If it is able to break through, it will make the picture look more positive. Otherwise, the chance for a fall remains.
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16
May
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 16 May 2017, Bet on near-term rebound; hold mid- to long-term positions
(views 759)
We expect the SET index to recover after investment sentiment starts to be more positive this morning. Such sentiment is supported by a sharp rise in crude after Russia and Saudi Arabia has agreed to extend output cut until 1Q18. Moreover, it is believed that domestic instituions portfolio adjustment should be nearly over after all listed companies have announced their earnings results. Technically, the index has decreased to test support of 1530. After which, there began to be buyback, which made it possible for the candle stick to continue to have a tail, a more positive sign. As a result, we expect a technical rebound to test resistance near 1545-1550.
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15
May
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 15 May 2017, Bet on near-term rebound; accumulate mid to long-term positions
(views 695)
We expect the SET index to continue to be volatile. In the near term, we expect continuous rebound after there was
buyback momentum late last Friday. However, we still need to keep close look on earnings results, which are due out for the last day today, and Thailands 1Q17 GDP. Technically, the candle chart starts to flash less negative signal. Specifically, the line at the bottom is getting clearer. Hence, it is possible that there will be a technical rebound first. If it fails to break resistance of 1550, it will turn to fall to test support of 1530.
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12
May
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 12 May 2017, Place short bets at 1546; wait to increase mid- to long-term positions
(views 694)
We expect the SET to continue to ease because sentiment is rather negative after most earnings results come in lower
than expected. However, the picture is technically not very bearish because the index continued to close above 1550. Looking ahead, if the SET falls below 1546, its previous trough, this will pain a highly negative picture and there is risk that the index will decrease to test support of 1530.
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11
May
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 11 May 2017, Trade short term to bet on rebound; accumulate longer term bets at supports
(views 757)
Today, we expect the SET index to continue to ease after there is no fresh catalyst to provide support. Furthermore,
earnings of most listed companies come in lower than expected. Nonetheless, we expect downside to be limited because the large gain in crude should make it possible for the energy sector to provide support for the market. Technically, there is support near 1557-1555 and there was buyback on Tuesdays late afternoon. Given that, we expect a technical rebound at such level.
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09
May
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 9 May 2017, Trade short-term bet within range; continue to hold mid- to long-term ones
(views 728)
We believe the SET index will continue to move within narrow range after there is no fresh catalyst from abroad. In addition, Thai equity markets will be closed tomorrow. Looking ahead, we believe investors will continue to pay attention and keep close eye on earnings results all week this week. Technically, the SET was unable to break to hover above resistance of 1573-1575 yesterday. Hence, we believe that the index will continue to move within 1563-1573.
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08
May
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 8 May 2017, Trade short term; Hold mid- to long-term bets and let profit run
(views 689)
We expect the SET index to increase today after investment sentiment is quite bright. The upbeat sentiment is
supported by U.S. non-farm payrolls in April which increased more than expected. Moreover, Emmanuel Macron won the second round of the French presidential election, defeating Marine Le Pen by a wide margin. Technically, the index started to rebound thanks to support from the buying after it had eased to test support of 1564. Given that, there is chance it will increase to test or go above resistance of 1573-1575 today.
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05
May
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 5 May 2017, Trade short bet within range; Continue to hold longer positions
(views 745)
Although the SET looked better, volume was thin when compared to its 10-day average. Moreover, most of the buying
was from domestic institutions, while foreign investors continued to record a net sell position as they waited for U.S. employment data and second round of the French presidential election. Meanwhile, crude continued to tumble by over 5%. Given that, it will put pressure on the energy sector whose weight is about 19% of the SET. Since there is risk that the energy index will decrease to 20600 (from 20829), the SETs upside is more limited today than the previous day. Technically, positive signal will fully resume only when the SET turns to hover above 1576. Otherwise, there is still risk it will decrease to 1560-1563. Hence, if the index increases today, investors should sell to lock in profit rather than buy.
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04
May
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 4 May 2017, Trade short term; hold mid- to long-term bets
(views 840)
We expect the SET index to continue to move within narrow range after the FED resolved to keep policy rate unchanged as markets had anticipated. Moreover, the FOMC meeting also maintained its view for moderate growth amid strong labor market. Nonetheless, the Committee did not signal about policy tightening. As a result, markets remain cautious in their trading and turn their focus to U.S. non-farm payrolls in April that is due out today as well as final round of the French presidential election this weekend. Technically, the index continued to move sideways and was unable to break to hover above 1570. Given that, we expect it to continue to move within 1560-1573.
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03
May
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 3 May 2017, Trade short term; hold mid- to long-term bets
(views 712)
We expect the SET index to continue to move within narrow range as markets continue to keep close eye on a number of
factors. Internationally, there is Fed meeting, at which markets expect it to keep policy rate unchanged and to signal policy tightening. Moreover, there are U.S. Congress passing of budget bill to avoid government shutdown, U.S. non-farm payrolls for April, and second round of the French presidential election. Locally, there are listed companies earnings results. Technically, the index is still moving sideways, building up base. In the past several days, it moved within narrow range and was unable to break to hover above 1570. Given that, we expect it to move within range of 1560-1573.
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02
May
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 2 May 2017, Trade short term; hold mid- to long-term bets
(views 814)
We expect the SET index to continue to move within narrow range after late last week U.S. Congress has passed a
temporary budget bill covering a period of one week to end on May 5. Moreover, they prepare to pass a budget bill of US$1tn to avoid government shutdown, which will make it possible for the U.S. government to operate until September 30. However, investment sentiment remains capped by lower-than-expected U.S. economic data, i.e. March construction spending and April manufacturing ISM. Technically, the index was unable to break through 1570 last week. Hence, we expect the index to continue to move within 1560-1573.
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28
April
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 28 April 2017, Lock in short-term profit at resistance; Continue to hold longer-term bets
(views 797)
We expect the SET index to continue to move within narrow range after the ECB kept its policy rate on hold at 0% at
yesterdays meeting. However, the European Central Bank revised down its bond purchase budget from €80bn per month to €60bn per month at latest until the end of this year. Tonight, markets will continue to keep an eye on U.S. debt ceiling. To elaborate, the U.S. government has reached its ceiling to create debt, which might result in government shutdown again. Nonetheless, ADVANCs profit which came in yesterday was sharply higher than expected. This might somewhat help support investment sentiment. Technically, we expect the index to continue to move within 1560-1573.
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27
April
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 27 April 2017, Lock in near-term profit at resistance; hold mid- to long-term bets
(views 834)
We expect the SET index to move within narrow range after investors are slightly disappointed that there are no
sufficient detail in U.S. tax reform plan. In particular, it does not improve much from it was when President Trump ran for office.
Meanwhile, there are factors that need monitoring. First, the BOJ and the ECB will meet today. Second, there is U.S. debt which is up to the
ceiling, renewing market concern over default risk. Third, ADVANC will announce 1Q17 earnings results this evening. Technically, although our view starts to be more bullish thanks to yesterdays rebound, if the index is unable to rise above 1570-1573, there is still risk that it will turn to retreat to test supports.
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26
April
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 26 April 2017, Hold after bets are placed
(views 715)
We expect the SET to rebound today after the index recovered well before it was closed yesterday. Meanwhile, broad
investment sentiment is bright. To elaborate, U.S. corporate earnings were strong. Moreover, North Korea did not conduct nuclear or missile test yesterday. Nonetheless, there continued to be factors that markets continue to keep an eye at. They comprise announcement of U.S. tax reform plan today as well as BOJ and ECB meeting tomorrow. Technically, there was buyback momentum at 1555-1553, which made it possible for the index to strongly rebound. The candle chart started to flash more positive near-term signals. Given that, there is chance the SET will bounce back to test resistance.
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25
April
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 25 April 2017, Gradually buy at support
(views 745)
Today, we expect the SET index to rise in line with investment sentiment, which is quite bright. However, upside looks
likely to be limited as the world is keeping an eye on North Korea whether the country will conduct nuclear or missile test at its 85th
anniversary of the foundation of the Korean Peoples Army today or not. Moreover, investors are waiting for progress on U.S. tax reform
plan tomorrow as well as BOJ and ECB meeting on Thursday. Technically, the index has gone below 1565. Hence, there is chance it
will fall to test support of 1560.
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24
April
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 24 April 2017, Wait to buy at support
(views 780)
Today, we expect the SET index to continue to increase in line with investment sentiment which remains quite positive after the first round of the French presidential election delivered in-line results. To elaborate, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, the two key candidates, passed to the final round in early May. However, we still need to keep close eye on the situation in the Korean Peninsula after North Korea has detained an American, the third of late, and said that Pyongyang was ready to sink U.S. aircraft carrier to demonstrate its power. Given that, the SETs upside is likely to be limited. From technical point of view, if the index continues to fail to break through and hover above resistance of 1573-1575, there is chance it will turn to retreat to test support of 1560.
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21
April
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 21 April 2017, Wait to buy at support
(views 766)
Today, we expect the SET to increase in line with the positive investment sentiment after the Dow ended up by nearly 200
points overnight, supported by the statement made by the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury that a major tax reform plan would be
revealed. Nonetheless, earnings results of most Thai banks were lower than expected. The first round of the French presidential election will take place this weekend. The Baht continues to decrease. Hence, we believe foreign fund inflow will continue to slow, causing upside to be limited. Technically, if the SET is unable to break through and hover above resistance of 1570-1572, we believe there is still chance that the index will fall to test support of 1560.
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20
April
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 20 April 2017, Wait to buy at support
(views 784)
The SET is likely to continue to fall due to persistently negative investment sentiment, in line with the Dow which
closed down by over 100 points overnight due to disappointments over listed companies earnings results and a sharp fall in crude. In Thailand, banks earnings results were slightly lower than expected. Moreover, the sharply lower crude will also put pressure on domestic energy counters. In both the Korean Peninsula and Europe, situation remains gravely uncertain and needs to be closely monitored. Technically, the picture remains negative in the near term after the SET has fallen below support of 1570 and there is chance to continue to fall to test support of 1560.
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19
April
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 19 April 2017, Selectively buy stocks with strong earnings outlook on weakness
(views 718)
There is risk the SET will continue to fall today due to rather negative investment sentiment. To elaborate, there is still uncertainty in the Korean Peninsula. U.S. equity market ended down after Goldman Sachs earnings results disappointed. In Europe, there are certain issues that investors need to keep an eye on. Specifically, the first round of the French presidential election is set to be held this weekend, while the British Prime Minister has announced an early election on June 8. Technically, the index started to go below support of 1575. As a result, there is risk it will decrease to test support of 1570. However, KTB reported in-line solid 1Q17 earnings results this morning. Hence, banks should help support the market and limit loss today. In the near term, we view that fund will stream into bond rather than equity market due to foreign investors net buy position in that market and the decline in U.S. bond yield.
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18
April
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 18 April 2017, Selectively buy stocks with strong earnings outlook
(views 702)
The SET looks likely to see a technical rebound after the tension in the Korean Peninsula has eased. Moreover, U.S.
corporate earnings came in strong, particularly in the financial sector. Together they helped support fund to flow back into risk assets. Meanwhile, U.S. bond yield and the VIX index decreased. Golds gain paused. In Thailand, both TISCO and KTC delivered better-than-expected earnings results after markets have factored in TMBs earnings performance. However, investors still need to keep an eye on selling. If the index goes below 1575, there is risk that it will continue to fall to 1570-1568.
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17
April
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 17 April 2017, Bet on stocks with strong earnings outlook
(views 664)
The technical picture started to have more positive signal after the index broke through resistance of 1586 and close at its daily high. However, the gain was modest when compared to resistance of 1595-1600. Moreover, the tension escalated in the Korean Peninsula, while Chinas 1Q17 GDP will be announced this morning and the Feds Beige Book on Wednesday. Hence, investors need to remain cautious over selling. Furthermore, there is risk that index will retreat to test supports. However, the start of earnings season will help limit loss.
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12
April
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 12 April 2017, Buy on weakness
(views 726)
Although most Asian equity markets are pressured by the tension in the Korean Peninsula, we believe that the energy sector and banks will be able to support the SET to outperform its regional peers. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellens speech last night does not put a cap on markets. According to historical data, the SET normally increases by an average of 2% after Songkran. Given that, we believe that the SETs prospect is still good. However, it depends largely on banks earnings results. Technically, the index begins to flash better signals. In particular, it increased to test resistance at 1586 again yesterday. Whats more, trading volume was heavier than the day before yesterday. This implies better chance that it will break such level. For these reasons, we believe the SET will continue to move within 1575-1586 today.
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11
April
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 11 April 2017, Buy on weakness
(views 717)
We expect the SET to move within narrow range of 1575-1585 amid persistently weak trading volume. Foreign fund inflow
looks set to slow due to the conflicts between the U.S., Syria and North Korea and President Trumps executive order to review trade deficits with 16 nations. Investors are cautious over earnings season which is about to begin in the U.S. In Thailand, the SET normally increases by an average of 2% before Songkran, according to past data. We believe it is possible this year with banks as key driver.
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10
April
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 10 April 2017, International factors pressure; buy on weakness and then hold
(views 752)
We expect the SET to trade within 1575-1590 amid weak trading volume because there will be only three trading days this
week. Moreover, investors remain cautious over trading due to the wars in Syria and the tension in North Korea, which drives international fund to flow into bonds more than risk assets. Although Thai equity markets look set to retreat in the near term, we believe the energy sector will provide support. Despite the downside risk, investors may bet on counters with strong earnings preview. Technically, although the SET stabilizes, supported by 10-day average line, there were times that it slipped and selling which pressured the index to be volatile. Hence, it is more likely that the index will decrease.
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07
April
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 7 April 2017 , SET continues to be volatile and decrease; continue to wait to buy on weakness
(views 742)
Yesterday (April 6), most foreign equity markets decreased quite sharply because the latest minutes of FOMC meeting
mentioned about QE tightening after the Feds balance sheet was high at US$4.5bn. As a result, investors were concerned that international fund might flow out of Asia to U.S. and European stock markets. Nonetheless, since the Fed did not give any clear volume and period, most of the equity markets on both sides of the Atlantic managed to recover. Moreover, some Asian stock markets also opened higher this morning. Given that, there is chance that the SET will move sideways this morning. However, we expect upside to be limited due to lack of fresh catalyst. Whats more, the indexs technical picture signals weakness. Hence, we continue to anticipate a fall, which will serve as opportunity to place more bets.
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05
April
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 5 April 2017, SET moves wildly within previous range; wait to buy on weakness
(views 844)
The SET continues to see support from Asian equity markets which opened up this morning. In addition, crude was up
(hence, the energy sector will lead the market), and foreign investors continued to record a net buy position in all of the three markets (albeit lower trading volume). However, investors remain cautious about a meeting between Chinese and U.S. presidents late this week, which might have an impact on foreign fund flow. Technically, the signals do not improve. To elaborate, the index only moved sideways within range and continued to be volatile. Furthermore, it remains capped by an overbought. As a result, the index is likely to fall, which serves as an opportunity to buy.
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04
April
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 4 April 2017, ET remains volatile with narrow range; wait to buy on weakness
(views 737)
This morning, investment sentiment in Asian equity markets is not bright after both most U.S. and European stock markets closed down last night due to U.S. manufacturing data which slowed in March. Moreover, U.S. auto sales in the previous month also decreased for the third straight month. As a result, investors are concerned over U.S. economic outlook. Whats more, some investors continue to wait for minutes of the ECB meeting in March, which is due out this Thursday whether there will be signal on a change in policy direction or not. Meanwhile, global crude continued to weaken after U.S. oil rigs continued to increase for the 11th straight week. Technically, the SET continued to be volatile and moved within a range seen late last week. In addition, near-term indicators remained overbought. Hence, there is still chance that the SET to fall first.
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03
April
2017
Daily Focus & Technical : 3 April 2017, Buy on weakness
(views 826)
Since the SET has no fresh good news coming in, together with a weaker US economic data and Brexit talks, FSS expects
the market’s rebound to be narrow. On the technical front, technical indicators has showed negative signs pressured by bearish engulfing pattern, we believe the SET is likely to be lower. However, we see a downturn as a buying opportunity.
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31
March
2017
Daily Focus : 31 March 2017, SET still likely to be volatile; continue to buy on weakness
(views 724)
Last night, both U.S. and European stock markets closed up, positively responding to final 4Q16 U.S. GDP estimate which
calls for the economy to expand more than expected. Furthermore, there was support from global crude which jumped by nearly 2% after
there was report that a number of oil producing countries had supported extended output cut. Given that, Asian equity markets
turned to open up this morning after most of they closed down yesterday, while the SET is also likely to continue to rally today.
Nonetheless, the Asian gain was quite limited. Furthermore, there seems to be selling to lock in profit, which will pressure the index to
be volatile. This is due partly to concern over the next Fed rate hike this year after U.S. economic data continued to come in stronger than
expected. As a result, FSS expects the SETs gain to be narrow at this time. Whats more, investors need to watch out on a fall before the
index turns to rally as before.
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30
March
2017
Daily Focus : 30 March 2017, SET volatile; wait to buy on weakness
(views 730)
The SET continued to move close to the peak of this round near 1580 after the Fed Chair did not provide any clue about the next rate hike at her talk in Washington D.C. Moreover, U.S. economic stimulus remained strong. Global crude continued to recover after armed rebel forces shut down key oil wells in Libya. U.S. oil inventories increased less than what the EIA had expected. However, the SET has rallied quite quickly in the last round. Whats more, some investors would like to wait, while assessing possible impact after the U.K. has initiated the process to officially exit the EU, and keep an eye on the EU which will reveal its moves on Brexit tomorrow (March 31) once again. With that, FSS believes the SETs upside to be limited. Furthermore, investors need to be cautious about a fall.
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29
March
2017
Daily Focus : 29 March 2017, Despite gain, SET likely to be volatile; wait to buy on weakness
(views 660)
Last night, both U.S. and European equity markets were able to end strongly up. Although the Fed Chair did not signal anything about the next rate hike in her speech in Washington D.C., the strong U.S. economic data continued to help cement confidence over economic recovery and ease investor concern over President Trumps draft healthcare bill, which was earlier withdrawn from the U.S. House of Representatives. Meanwhile, global crude started to recover thanks to a report that Libyas oil production decreased after armed rebel forces have shut down two oil wells. Whats more, there was support from hope that oil producing countries would reach a deal to extend their output cut until the end of this year. However, Asian stock markets opened modestly up and were volatile this morning. Given that, FSS expects the SET to be volatile and decrease.
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28
March
2017
Daily Focus : 28 March 2017, SET steadies amid volatility; wait to buy on weakness
(views 701)
The Dow closed sharply lower by nearly 200 points in the beginning because investors were uncertain that President Trumps
economic stimulus plan will get an approval from the U.S. House of Representatives. However, there was support from buyback momentum
after the fall, which made it possible for the U.S. index to climb back to where it ended only slightly lower. This is due probably to the fact that a number of investors continued to wait for the Fed Chairs speech in Washington D.C. which is due to take place todays evening again. Given that, many Asian equity markets managed to open higher this morning. Nonetheless, the gain was quite modest. Hence, FSS expects
the SET to also steady, continuing to move within its previous range. Having said that, investors need to remain cautious over future falls in order to build up base for a new round of rallies going forward.
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27
March
2017
Daily Focus : 27 March 2017, SET sharply increases and likely to fall; wait to buy on weakness
(views 706)
Last Fridays night, the Dow continued to be volatile and decreased before the market was closed after the U.S. House of
Representatives withdrawn the draft American Healthcare bill, which would replace the Obamacare, after there were insufficient votes
among the Republican to drive the legislation. Hence, investors were concerned that President Trumps economic stimulus plan might delay.
This morning, most Asian equity markets continued to move in negative territory. As a result, FSS expects the SET to decrease. However, we view that a loss will serve as an opportunity to buy because foreign funds look set to flow into Asian once again. In particular, we started
to see foreign investors record a net buy position in Thailand lately. On the currency front, the Baht continued to appreciate. Given that, we expect large-cap counters to lead the market going forward.
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24
March
2017
Daily Focus : 24 March 2017, SET likely to be volatile and decrease; buy on weakness
(views 739)
We expect the SET to continue to be volatile and decrease. Although the index was able to stabilize in the last few days, there is no fresh catalyst to provide support. Although most European stock markets turned to end up last night and the Dow ended only slightly lower, the U.S. Index dropped from its intraday gain of nearly 100 points due to investor concern over the delay in President Trumps stimulus plan after U.S. House of representatives had postponed their deliberation on the draft of a new health care bill that replaces Obamacare because there were insufficient votes within the Presidents party to support such legislation. Furthermore, global crude continued to weaken after there were reports that U.S. oil stockpiles and rigs continued to rise last week. Meanwhile, the Fed Chairs talk yesterday did not offer any clue as investors had anticipated.
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23
March
2017
Daily Focus : 23 March 2017, Hold already-have position and place new bets on weakness
(views 836)
Investors were concerned that President Trumps stimulus plan might face delay. Moreover, there was pressure from U.S.
existing home sales which decreased more than expected. However, the Dow somewhat recovered and clawed back some of its loss last night after the index continued to tumble by nearly 90 points in the beginning. Besides what happened in the U.S., we also see a recovery in many European equity markets. Given that, most Asian stock markets were able to open slightly higher this morning. In Thailand, FSS expects the SET to continue to steady from yesterday. However, there is no fresh catalyst. Furthermore, some investors will continue to wait for the Fed Chairs talk later today to see whether there will be a signal on the next rate hike this year. As a result, investors need to watch out on volatility and a loss.
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22
March
2017
Daily Focus : 22 March 2017, Wait to buy on weakness and hold already-have positions
(views 915)
This morning, investment sentiment in international equity markets looks weaker as investors remained concerned over the
uncertainty of President Trumps economic plan. Given that, the Dow closed down by over 200 points overnight. In Europe, stock markets were capped by a fall in bank shares. As a result, most Asian equity markets opened lower this morning and many tumbled by over 1%. This should pressure the SET which has rallied sharply in the past week or so to decrease. Meanwhile, some investors continue to wait for the Fed Chairs speech tomorrow (i.e. March23) to look for clear signal of the next rate hike. Given that, FSS expects the SET to decrease briefly before it turns to move up in the future.
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21
March
2017
Daily Focus : 21 March 2017, SET still likely to ease; wait to buy on weakness
(views 704)
This morning, international equity markets were not bright because most U.S. and European stock markets closed down last night due to a number of reasons. First, investors were concerned over President Trumps tax reform and stimulus plans, which might take longer time than anticipated. Second, investors were disappointed with meeting results of finance ministers and central bankers of the G20 over the weekend. Third, there was pressure from another decline in global crude after Baker Hughes, a U.S. oilfield service company, reported that U.S. oil rigs continued to increase for the ninth straight week. Nonetheless, the loss in both U.S. and European stock markets was not large. Given that, most Asian equity markets continued to steady, moving within narrow range this morning. Whats more, FSS expects the SET to also stabilize in the beginning. After which, there is risk that the index will decrease.
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20
March
2017
Daily Focus : 20 March 2017, SET continues to be volatile and retreat; wait to buy on weakness
(views 666)
This morning, investment sentiment in international equity markets was quite directionless. Although most European stock
markets ended up, the gain was quite small. In the U.S., the Dow continued to close slightly down. Given that, most Asian equity
markets began to ease this morning, while investors continued to wait for the Fed Chairs speech on March 23 to look for clues about the next rate increase this year. In Thailand, the SET has increased quite quickly in the last round. Given that, FSS expects the index to decrease, which will serve as an opportunity to buy. However, downside should be limited since there is no fresh downside risk to put pressure. Moreover, global crude also started to stabilize better due to U.S. depreciation and after some key oil exporters from both in and out of the OPEC continued to signal further production cut in order to ease concern over supply glut.
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17
March
2017
Daily Focus : 17 March 2017, SET still likely to be volatile and decrease; wait to buy on weakness
(views 704)
The SET is likely to be more volatile. Moreover, the index might decrease after it has rebounded in response to the news that the Fed should not speed up its tightening this year as many started to anticipate. Moreover, it has increased quite sharply since the beginning of the week. This morning, most Asian equity markets began to see smaller gain after U.S. stock markets were volatile and somewhat eased due to selling in healthcare shares. Furthermore, global crude weakened due to concern over a report that a number of OPEC members were yet to reduce their production to the agreed level. Given that, FSS continues to believe the SET will be volatile and decrease. However, downside should narrow. Whats more, there is still chance for the index to climb to our end-2017 target of 1650 in the future.
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16
March
2017
Daily Focus : 16 March 2017, After bets are placed, hold them to wait for new round of rallies
(views 747)
This morning, investment sentiment in foreign equity markets is brighter after the Fed has hiked its benchmark rate by
0.25%, as expected. Moreover, the Fed Chair signaled that the central was in no hurry to raise its policy rate. In particular, there should be
just two more increases this year, as markets have predicted. Meanwhile, energy counters were supported by global crude which
recovered by more than 2% thanks to U.S. oil inventories which decreased from last week. The loss is in contrast to most analysts
anticipation for a rise. Given that, most Asian stock markets opened up this morning. Although the gain was modest, FSS believes it will help stimulate buying, which will make the SET stabilize better. Furthermore, there is still chance that the Thai main index will
rebound to move in positive territory, as expected.
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15
March
2017
Daily Focus : 15 March 2017, SET continues to see support amid volatility and weakness; Buy on weakness and then hold
(views 715)
U.S. stock markets continued to weaken. Besides the concern over a Fed rate increase, the Dow was also pressured by a sharp fall in airlines counters after flights had to be cancelled due to snow storm. Moreover, global crude tumbled by over 1% owing to a report that several OPEC-member countries oil production continued to exceed their quota. Such fall also pressured most European equity markets to end lower and caused Asian equity markets to weaken this morning. However, the Asian loss was modest. Given that, FSS expects the SET to be volatile and move within narrow range. Moreover, there is chance the index will steady, waiting for a rebound back to our end-2017 index target of 1650 in the future.
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14
March
2017
Daily Focus : 14 March 2017, SET stabilized well; buy on weakness and then hold
(views 727)
Last night, the Dow continued to move within narrow range and eased after investors slowed their trading while waiting for
results from a Fed meeting tomorrows night (i.e. March 15) after it was widely anticipated that the Fed would hike policy rate. However, most European equity markets continued to end up well. Given that, most Asian stock markets continued to increase this morning. Meanwhile, global crude started to stabilize within narrow range, even though it was capped by concern over the rise in U.S. oil stockpiles after the number of oil rigs continued to increase. In Thailand, there is catalyst from the fact that foreign investors turned to record a net buy position. Given that, FSS expects the SET to steady waiting for a rebound to our end-2017 index target of 1650 in the future.
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13
March
2017
Daily Focus :13 March 2017, SET steadies amid volatility; buy on weakness
(views 682)
Last Fridays evening, U.S. non-farm payrolls came in strong as expected, while unemployment rate decreased to 4.7%, a level seen by investors as an indicator that there was high chance the Fed would hike policy rate at a meeting in the middle of this week. Although the Dow was quite volatile, it managed to end up. This morning, although Asian stock markets continued to be directionless, they steadied mostly. Given all that, FSS continues to believe the SET will be volatile, moving wildly within narrow range, to build up base and wait for support from buying that will support it to climb as expected. Note we still maintain our end-2017 index target at 1650.
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10
March
2017
Daily Focus : 10 March 2017, Buy on weakness and then hold
(views 652)
The U.S. stock market last night closed slightly up after fluctuations during sessions while European markets gained at
close as ECB held rates and vowed to carry on with its asset-buying program. Shares in Asia are trading mixed this morning. FSS believes
the SET will stabilize better and is about to gain shortly.
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09
March
2017
Daily Focus : 9 March 2017, SET begins to steady and likely to rebound; buy on weakness and then hold
(views 588)
In the U.S., stock market continued to end lower because global crude took a dive of over 5% after the EIA reported that
U.S. oil stockpiles continued to increase for the ninth straight week. Furthermore, there was concern over a Fed rate hike at a meeting next week after U.S. employment rate surged more than expected in February. In Europe, most equity markets continued to close up after Germans February manufacturing production index increased more than expected. In Asia, stock markets opened mixed within narrow range this morning. In Thailand, the SET started to see buyback following a sharp fall yesterday. Given all that, FSS believes the SET will stabilize better and is about to gain shortly.
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08
March
2017
Daily Focus : 8 March 2017, SETs upside widens; gradually buy and then hold
(views 577)
Last night, both U.S. and European stock markets continued to weaken. Besides the concern over a Fed rate increase at a
meeting next week (i.e. March 14-15), investors were also concerned over U.S. policy uncertainty after President Trump prepared to introduce a new health plan that will replace Obamacare. In Europe, German factory orders tumbled in January. Given that, investors will continue to keep an eye on ECB meeting tomorrow and U.S. non-farm payrolls on Fridays evening (i.e. March 10) in order to look for clue on a Fed rate hike next week. For these reasons, FSS still believes that the SET will continue to move down.
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07
March
2017
Daily Focus : 7 March 2017, SETs upside widens; recommend selective buy
(views 619)
This morning, investment sentiment in international equity markets was not bright after most U.S. and European stock
markets tumbled due to concern over a Fed rate hike at a meeting next week after the Fed Chairs supportive statement during her speech made late last week. Moreover, there was political tension after North Korea launched missiles in Japanese waters. In Europe, banks were pressured by reports that Deutsch Bank had announced more capital hike of €8bn, while the political uncertainty in France hit investment sentiment in equity markets. Finally, global crude remained directionless. Given all that, FSS expects the SET to continue to fall.
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06
March
2017
Daily Focus : 6 March 2017, SET likely to continue to fall; wait to buy on weakness
(views 564)
Last Fridays evening, the Fed Chair clearly signaled that the central bank was ready to raise benchmark rate at a meeting in March, if the economy expanded in line with its forecast. The comment was in tandem with the view made by several Fed officials earlier. Given that, the Dow swung back and forth within narrow range. Moreover, Asian equity markets continued to decrease this morning. Although global crude increased by over 1%, supported by U.S. dollar depreciation and evacuation of the workers at Es Sider Port in Libya
due to violence in the nearby area, there was pressure from the concern over increased supply after there was report that U.S. oil rigs continued to increase for the seventh straight week. For these reasons, FSS continues to believe that the SET still stand a chance to move down.
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03
March
2017
Daily Focus : 3 March 2017, SET likely to move down after rebounds; wait to buy on weakness
(views 564)
Last night, U.S. stock market turned to tumble by over 100 points after it continued to increase by more than two weeks and jumped the other day. As a result, there was selling to lock in profit once again. In particular, speculation started to increase that the Fed would hike policy rate at a meeting in the middle of this month, while investors chose to be on the sidelines, waiting for the Fed Chairs speech in Chicago in the evening. Given that, European equity markets were down last night, while its Asian peers decreased this morning. Although the loss was smaller than that in the U.S., it also has an impact on Thai equity market. Meanwhile, the SET has bounced back for three consecutive days and there is pressure from global crude which dropped by more than 2%. As a result, FSS continues to believe that the SETs rebound was temporary and the index will turn to move down again, as expected.
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02
March
2017
Daily Focus : 2 March 2017, Although SET likely to continue to gain, upside is limited and there is chance index will turn to decrease
(views 745)
The US$1bn budget that President Trump planned to invest in the countrys infrastructure helped stimulate equity markets on both sides of the Atlantic to end up by over 1% overnight. Moreover, it helped most Asian stock markets to continue to open high this morning. Given that, it should also support the SET to continue to rebound. However, President Trump was yet to provide clarity about timing of each measures and some investors might have persistent concern over U.S. rate hike whether it will take place at FOMC meeting on March 14-15 or not. Moreover, global crude turned to ease late in the night after it recovered in the evening following an EIA report that
U.S. oil inventory increased to record high. Hence, investors need to remain cautious as the SETs upside is limited and there is chance that the index will turn to decrease.
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01
March
2017
Daily Focus : 1 March 2017, SET still likely to continue to fall; wait to buy on weakness
(views 529)
The Dow started to see selling which pressured it to move in negative territory and end slightly lower after the index has increased for 12 straight trading days, while waiting for President Trumps State of the Union Address before Congress which is scheduled to take place this morning local time. Moreover, the Dow was pressured by U.S. GDP in 4Q16 which expanded lower than expected. However, most European stock markets continued to end higher. Given that, many Asian equity markets continued to open up. However, the gain was modest because they continued to be capped by global crude which started to weaken again. In this regard, FSS expects the SET to steady and continue to increase for a while as markets wait for details of U.S. economic stimulus. Nonetheless, gain should be limited. In
addition, investors need to remain cautious over selling that will pressure the index to turn to decrease in the end.
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28
February
2017
Daily Focus : 28 February 2017, Despite alternate gain, SET likely to continue to decrease
(views 795)
Last night, the Dow continued to end up for the 12th straight day after President Trump said that he would reveal mega
investment plan in infrastructure in his State of the Union Address before Congress this morning (local time). However, investors in
Europe chose to slow their trading while waiting for clarity from such address. This morning, Asian stock markets opened higher. Although
the gain was quite narrow, it should be sufficient for the SET to turn to increase. However, the gain will be just an alternate rebound in a
downward movement. As a result, the gain should be modest and the index is more likely to continue to ease.
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27
February
2017
Daily Focus : 27 February 2017, SET looks weak and likely to move lower
(views 616)
The Dow continued to end up for the 11th straight day as investors continued to wait for President Trumps State of the
Union Address before Congress this Tuesdays evening, at which markets anticipated details of tax reform plan to be disclosed. However, the gain started to get narrower, while most European stock markets continued to fall sharply. Given that, FSS expects the SET to weaken to a new low that is lower than 1560 shortly.
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24
February
2017
Daily Focus : 24 February 2017, SET looks weak; buy on weakness
(views 587)
This morning, Asian equity markets movement were not bright after the Dow continued to end up within narrow range. However, the index continued to hit new high for the 10th straight day, supported by a report that President Trump had pledged to bright employment back to the U.S. In addition, investors remained hopeful over U.S. tax reform plan. However, since there was no clarity, U.S. stock markets continued to be highly volatile intraday, while European equity markets were pressured by weak corporate earnings. Meanwhile, although global crude increased, the gain was still within the previous range. Given all that, FSS expects the SET to continue to decrease for a while before there is buying that will support the index to turn to increase to our target in the future.
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23
February
2017
Daily Focus : 23 February 2017, SET likely to decrease; buy on weakness
(views 536)
Although the Dow continued to end up and hit a record high for the ninth straight day last night, the index was volatile nearly all day. Moreover, the gain was modest, while most European equity markets continued to tread water within narrow range. Although there was positive news from Germanys business confidence index which came in higher than expected, some investors decided to wait for minutes of the FOMC meeting. According to the latest report, it was found that Fed officials had expressed confidence over the economy. In addition, they viewed that policy rate should increase shortly. Since the next Fed meeting is on March 14-15, there was considerable pressure on the sentiment in Asian stock markets this morning. Given that, FSS expects the SET to move down again before it turns to increase in the future.
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22
February
2017
Daily Focus : 22 February 2017, SETs fall serves as opportunity to buy
(views 868)
The sentiment in most U.S. and European stock markets turned brighter last night after investors remained optimistic about President Trumps tax reform plan, which is expected to provide strong support to the economy. Given that, there was speculative buying prior to U.S. Presidents State of the Union address on February 28 because its expected that President Trump will disclose details of his tax reform plan on that day. Such sentiment also helped support most Asian equity markets to open up as well. However, the gain was quite limited as some investors probably continued to wait for U.S. economic data that are due out late this week and minutes of FOMC meeting tonight to look for clue about a policy rate hike. In Thailand, the SET saw higher selling pressure yesterday. Given that, investors need to remain cautious over a fall.
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21
February
2017
Daily Focus : 21 February 2017, SET continues to see selling pressure; wait to buy on weakness
(views 675)
This morning, several Asian stock markets continued to increase. Last night, U.S. equity markets were closed to observe
Presidents Day. In Europe, although most stock markets ended lower, the loss was not large as investors were cautious in their trading while keeping an eye on the Euro group ministerial meeting, which will review Greeks economic policies before a new financial aid is approved. Given that, FSS expects the SET to move within narrow range. However, the index is more likely to move down due to lack of catalyst. Moreover, the index has sharply increased. Hence, some investors might want to sell to lock in profit and to reduce risk.
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20
February
2017
Daily Focus : 20 February 2017, Fall serves as opportunity to buy
(views 578)
Foreign equity markets were not very bright after the Dow moved in negative territory nearly all day last Friday as investors slowed their trading prior to a bank holiday on Monday, February 20 to observe Presidents Day. However, the U.S. index edged up before it was closed and was able to end slightly up after U.S. economic data came in strong, while earnings of some companies were strong. In Europe, most stock markets continued to be weak after construction activities in the eurozone slowed. Given that, Asian equity markets continued to open lower this morning. Although the loss was modest, it implies lack of confidence. As a result, FSS also expects the SET to turn to move downward as well.
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17
February
2017
Daily Focus : 17 February 2017, SET gains within narrow range due to selling pressure; wait to buy on weakness
(views 582)
Most U.S. and European stock markets turned to be weak again. Although the Dow continued to end up, the gain was modest and came after intraday loss. In particular, the U.S. main index was pressured by energy shares after there was concern over a rise in U.S. oil stockpiles. Although global crude increased thanks to optimism that OPEC members will continue to cooperate in their agreement to cut output, the gain was still within its narrow range. Given that, most Asian equity markets continued to open lower this morning, which should also put a cap on the SET. Furthermore, it should cause the index to turn to move in negative territory once again before it turns to rally in the next round.
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16
February
2017
Daily Focus : 16 February 2017, Despite support, SET likely to continue to fall; wait to buy on weakness
(views 541)
The SET saw support from buyback momentum before it was closed yesterday after the index has decreased quite
considerably lately. However, there was no fresh catalyst to provide support. Moreover, the Fed Chair hinted a near-term rate hike in her
speech, putting pressure on markets. Global crude remained volatile, moving within narrow range after the EIA reported that U.S. oil stockpiles increased for the sixth straight week, which triggered investor concern over persistent supply glut. In Asia, most stock markets turned to open lower, even though most U.S. and European stock markets closed up last night. Given that, FSS expects the SETs upside to be limited. Whats more, it is more like that it will fall before it turns to increase in the next round.
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15
February
2017
Daily Focus : 15 February 2017, Buy on weakness and then hold
(views 536)
International sentiment turned brighter. Although European stock markets moved rather directionless last night after Eurostat revealed that the eurozone economy in 4Q16 expanded at a slower rate than its initial forecast, the Dow turned to end strongly higher after banks surged in response to the Fed Chairs signal about a rate hike. Moreover, global crude sharply increased thanks to a report that the OPECs oil production decreased in January. However, Asian stock markets gain remained limited, pressured by a Fed rate hike. Hence, although FSS expects the SET to rebound, the gain should remain modest. Moreover, there is risk that the index will continue to decrease prior to rallies in the next round.
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14
February
2017
Daily Focus : 14 February 2017, Wait to buy on weakness
(views 1,199)
Most Asian equity markets continued to strongly increase when the SET was closed yesterday after both U.S. and European stock markets closed higher last Friday thanks to investor optimism over U.S. tax reform, which is widely expected to be announced in the next couple of weeks. Such positive view also helped equity markets on both sides of the Atlantic to end up last night thanks to speculation on the counters that are expected to benefit from such policy. In addition, markets saw catalyst from the European Commissions upgrading of its economic forecast for the EU. As a result, FSS expects the SET to continue to move in positive territory. However, we believe upside is limited and there is chance the index will decrease after global crude continued to decline after there was report that U.S. oil rigs increased.
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10
February
2017
Daily Focus : 10 February 2017, Despite alternate gain, SET likely to continue to decrease; buy on weakness
(views 629)
Most U.S. and European stock markets closed sharply higher last night. Specifically, the Dow surged to a new high after there was news that U.S. President prepared to announce major tax cut in the next 2-3 weeks. In Europe, stock markets were supported by strong corporate earnings and Germanys trade surplus which hit a record high after exports recovered. With that, most Asian equity markets opened higher this morning. This might support the SET to follow suit and increase after the index decreased quite sharply yesterday. However, FSS continues to recommend that our investors watch out on selling to lock in profit when the index increases because the selling will pressure it to decrease after there is no fresh catalyst to provide support. Moreover, the SET will be closed for a special holiday next week (February 13). For this reason, some investors might sell in order to reduce market volatility risk.
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09
February
2017
Daily Focus : 9 February 2017, Despite alternate gain, SET still likely to decrease; buy on weakness
(views 628)
This morning, investment sentiment in foreign equity markets was weak after U.S. stock market decreased to move in negative territory last night. Although the loss was not large, the index moved in negative territory nearly all day following investors sell off of financials shares after U.S. bond yield narrowed. In Europe, most stock markets continued to move up and down in narrow range. Given that, most Asian equity markets continued to be volatile within narrow range. In Thailand, although there was buyback to provide support, the SET was volatile and moved sideways within its previous range as the market lacked both fresh catalyst and new negative factor. However, the index has rallied quite sharply earlier. As a result, FSS views that investors need to watch out on selling to lock in profit, which will pressure the market to decrease.
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08
February
2017
Daily Focus : 8 February 2017, Despite alternate gain, SET likely to continue to decrease
(views 558)
Last night, Wall Street increased to a new high thanks to strong corporate earnings and a larger-than-expected decline in U.S. trade balance in December. In Europe, most equity markets ended sharply higher after the euro decreased, helping investor see European exporters in a more positive light. Given that, there is chance that the SET will increase after it has considerably decreased yesterday. However, most Asian equity markets opened higher in narrow range this morning, while some continued to decrease. Moreover, although the Dow increased to a record high intraday, it ended slightly up and below its daily peak. As a result, FSS expects the SET to inch up before it turns to decrease because there is no new catalyst to provide support.
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07
February
2017
Daily Focus : 7 February 2017, SET still likely to fall; wait to buy on weakness
(views 579)
Foreign investment sentiment turned to weaken after U.S. stock markets moved mostly in negative territory last night. However, the loss was modest. To elaborate, investors remained concerned over the conflicts from the immigration ban on seven Muslim-majority countries to the U.S. In Europe, equity markets were worried over Volkswagen after the company was sued again over emission fraud. Moreover, global crude dropped by over 1.5% due to a continuous rise in U.S. oil rigs. As a result, energy shares fell quite sharply. Since such losses caused many Asian stock markets to open lower, FSS also expects the SET to turn to decrease after its recent rebounds.
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06
February
2017
Daily Focus : 6 February 2017, SET still likely to fall; wait to buy on weakness
(views 666)
This morning, foreign equity markets were quite bright after both U.S. and European equity markets ended strongly higher last Friday, responding to U.S. non-farm payrolls in January which came in stronger than expected. Moreover, global crude also increased, positively reacting after oil producing countries cut their production as agreed. However, the gain was quite small. In addition, although most Asian stock markets opened mostly up, they remained volatile and the SET has significantly increased. Hence, upside to our index target of 1650 is quite limited. Finally, markets continue to lack catalyst. As a result, investors need to remain cautious over selling which will pressure the index to decrease.
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03
February
2017
Daily Focus : 3 February 2017, SET has limited upside and more likely to fall
(views 580)
Investment sentiment in international stock markets was not bad this morning. Both U.S. and European equity markets were down due to concern over the tension between U.S. President and other leaders. In addition, there was pressure from Deutsche Banks loss, while global crude weakened after the EIA reported that U.S. oil inventory increased more than expected last week. However, most Asian equity markets opened higher this morning after they decreased quite sharply yesterday. Given that, FSS expects the SET to be volatile, moving within its previous range. Nonetheless, the index has increased quite sharply and quickly in the last round, while upside to our index target of 1650 is quite narrow and markets lack catalyst. Hence, there is risk that the index will continue to fall rather than turning to rise. For this reason, we recommend that investors wait to buy on weakness.
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02
February
2017
Daily Focus : 2 February 2017, SET likely to continue to fall; wait to buy on weakness
(views 567)
The SET continued to see buyback momentum which supported the index when it decreased. Given that, there is still chance the index will turn to increase. This morning, there continues to be support thanks to a rise in Asian stock markets after both U.S. and European equity markets ended higher, positively responding to the Feds decision to keep benchmark rate unchanged. Moreover, the U.S. Central Bank had positive view on the economy and there was support from the strong earnings of Apple Inc., Volvo and Siemens SE, while there was positive factor from a report that the eurozones manufacturing activities were strong . Meanwhile, crude recovered once again after the EIA indicated that U.S. oil production decreased last week. Whats more, there was a report that both OPEC and non-OPEC oil producing countries joined hands to cut their output in January. However, The Asian gain was limited and they continued to be volatile. Hence, FSS expects the SETs gain to also be narrow. Finally, investors need to remain cautious over a fall.
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01
February
2017
Daily Focus : 1 February 2017, SET beings to fall; wait to buy on weakness
(views 629)
Last night, both U.S. and European stock markets continued to end lower due to a number of reasons. First, there was concern over the immigration ban on seven Muslim countries. Second, they were pressured by weak earnings results of large U.S. companies. Third, U.S. consumer confidence index decreased in January. Fourth, investors were worried about the profit potential of export companies in Europe after the euro appreciated against U.S. dollar. Given that, FSS maintains our call for investors to exercise caution on index fall. However, many Asian stock markets started to gain this morning thanks probably to a recovery in global crude price after output of the OPEC decreased in January. For this reason, the SET might steady and slightly rebound before it turns to fall.
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31
January
2017
Daily Focus : 31 January 2017, SET looks weak; wait to buy on weakness
(views 547)
Investment sentiment in international equity markets was not bright because both U.S. and European stock markets ended quite sharply lower last night. Airlines took the hardest hit after President Trump had signed an executive order, putting a ban on citizens of seven Muslim nations from entering the U.S. Moreover, investors feared that such measures might result in international conflicts. Meanwhile, global crude remained under pressure from the rise in U.S. oil rigs, which might deter the attempt to cut output by other oil producing countries. This morning, most Asian equity markets continued to move lower after more resumed their trading after Lunar New Year. Given that, FSS expects the SET to continue to ease at least for while.
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30
January
2017
Daily Focus : 30 January 2017, Despite support, SET likely to continue to fall
(views 567)
We believe there is chance the SET will continue to fall because the Asian equity markets that were open this morning decreased after both U.S. and European stock markets were down. Such losses were attributed to the lower-than-expected rise in U.S. 2Q16 GDP. Moreover, earnings results of both U.S. and European companies that came in lately were quite disappointing. Finally, global crude continued to decrease after there was report that U.S. oil rigs increased last week. Given that, FSS expects the SET to continue to fall for a while before there is buyback to support the SET to increase in the next round.
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27
January
2017
Daily Focus : 27 January 2017, SET has limited upside; wait to buy on weakness
(views 603)
We expect the SET to be more volatile and there is chance the index will begin to ease to move in negative territory after both U.S. and European stock markets started to gain at a slower pace. In addition, many decreased after U.S. new home sales fell to touch its 10-month low. Meanwhile, the Baht began to decrease again after its recent quick rally. Whats more, the SET has climbed quite sharply. Hence, upside starts to narrow to the point that it is unattractive to place more bets. On top of that, there is no fresh catalyst to provide support. As a result, investors need to be cautious over selling to lock in profit, which will pressure the SET to decrease shortly.
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26
January
2017
Daily Focus : 26 January 2017, Upside limited; wait to buy on weakness
(views 625)
This morning, investment sentiment from international equity markets continued to provide support after Wall Street rallied by over 100 points, the second straight day. Such rise was supported by optimism that the U.S. president would launch measures that are supportive for businesses and employments. Moreover, earnings results of large companies continued to be bright. Given that, Asian stock markets continued to open higher this morning. However, most of the gain was modest. Meanwhile, global crude remained capped due to concern over supply glut after the EIA disclosed U.S. oil inventories increased last week. For these reasons, FSS believes the SETs upside is limited, particularly after the index has sharply increased. Whats more, we continue to recommend that investors remain cautious over volatility and a fall.
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25
January
2017
Daily Focus : 25 January 2017, Despite gain, SETs upside limited; wait to buy on weakness
(views 596)
This morning, investment sentiment in international equity markets were brighter after Wall Street turned to end up by
over 100 points, positively responding to large U.S. companies strong earnings. In addition, they were supported by the strong U.S. economic data. In the U.K., there is yet another hurdle for Brexit to pass, i.e. a parliamentary approval, following the Supreme Courts ruling yesterday. Given that, investors were more at ease about the adverse impact because it will take some time. However, the SET has quickly increased. Whats more the Bahts gain started to slow and the currency might ease shortly. Global crude that increased to price in the news about oil producing countries output cut began to be directionless. Hence, we expect investors to remain on the sidelines, waiting for the EIAs U.S. oil inventories report today. Furthermore, FSS maintain our call for investors to exercise caution over volatility and a fall.
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24
January
2017
Daily Focus : 24 January 2017, SET likely to rebound briefly before fall; buy on weakness
(views 561)
We expect the SET to be pressured by both U.S. and European stock markets which were mostly on a downward path after
investors feared that U.S. President Trumps protectionism policies might lead to global trade war. In his latest move, the new U.S.
President has signed an executive order to officially withdraw the U.S. from the TPP and there was report that he was preparing to ink another order, which would put the U.S. on a negotiation table under the NAFTA with Canada and Mexico in order to protect his country from being at a disadvantage in trades. Besides such anxiety, there was also pressure from a fall in global crude after U.S. oil rigs increased last week. Finally, the SET did not decrease much from the last round of rallies. Given all that, FSS continues to believe there is risk markets will continue to fall.
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23
January
2017
Daily Focus : 23 January 2017, Despite recovery, watch out on volatility and retreat
(views 559)
Although the new U.S. Presidents inaugural speech which confirmed his "America First" policy provided support for U.S.
equity markets to end up by nearly 100 points, it put only slight pressure on Asian stock markets this morning because there was no
clear detail. Given that, U.S. dollar weakened, while global crude continued to recover as the market waited for results on OPEC member countries output cut, which is due out in Vienna today. In Thailand, although there is still prospect that the SET will increase in line with regional equity markets, FSS believes upside is quite limited. Moreover, it is likely that the index will be volatile and retreat, while waiting for clarity.
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20
January
2017
Daily Focus : 20 January 2017, Despite continuous fall, downside begins to narrow; buy on weakness
(views 535)
This morning, international investment sentiment was not very bright because most U.S. and European equity markets
continued to end lower after investors slowed their trading prior to Mr.Trumps inauguration today. However, the higher-than-expected rise in U.S. housing start in December lent support to most stock markets, saving them from sharp fall. This morning, most Asian equity markets continued to be volatile and moved within narrow range with negative bias. Given that, FSS expects the SET to continue to move lower. However, downside should begin to narrow. Furthermore, we believe the index will stabilize better thanks to buying to bet on earnings results and dividend announcement in the future.
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19
January
2017
Daily Focus : 19 January 2017, Despite loss, SET still stands chance to turn to increase; wait to buy on weakness
(views 559)
After the SET has closed down for three consecutive days, today there might be buyback that supports the index to
somewhat increase. Although U.S. stock markets continued to close down last night due to concern over a Fed rate hike after U.S. inflation increased for the fifth straight month, the Feds Chair confirmed after hour that the rise would be gradual. Given that, most Asian equity markets were able to open up this morning. However, FSS believes the SETs gain will be limited after the Baht started to ease again, while global crude also tumbled. For this reason, chance that the SET will fall gain is still high.
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18
January
2017
Daily Focus : 18 January 2017, SET poised to continue to fall; buy on weakness
(views 600)
The Brexit talk put a cap on both U.S. and European equity markets, causing them to open lower. Although the mention
that final decision would come from a parliamentary resolution had somewhat helped support equity markets, selling in financials and
industrials continued to pressure them after U.S. President-elect expressed his view that U.S. dollar appreciation had adverse impact on
U.S. economy. Given that, most Asian stock markets continued to open lower this morning. In Thailand, FSS expects the SET to continue to
decrease for a while before there is buying to push the index back in the next round.
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17
January
2017
Daily Focus : 17 January 2017, SET likely to continue to fall, serving as opportunity to buy
(views 619)
Last night, U.S. stock markets were closed to observe Martin Luther King Jr. Day, while most European equity markets ended
lower due to concern over negative impact which might stem after the U.K. initiates the process to leave the EU. Given that, most Asian stock markets continued to open lower this morning. In Thailand, there was still pressure from selling when markets increased. Given that, FSS expects the SET to continue to move sideways down for a while before
it turns to move up in the future. At the current level, markets imply limited upside from our target.
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16
January
2017
Daily Focus : 16 January 2017, SET steadies amid selling pressure, making it likely to fall
(views 538)
U.S. stock markets were quite volatile late last week before it ended modestly lower after U.S. economic data was directionless. Although PPI increased, as expected, retail sales were up at a slower pace than expected. Given that, Asian equity markets continued to see pressure from selling, which caused them to continue to decrease this morning. Moreover, we believe that it will put a cap on Thai stock markets at this time after Thai indexes have rallied quite sharply in the last two weeks. In addition, we begin to see pressure from selling last week, which pressured the SET to be more volatile. As a result, FSS expects the SET to continue to move downward before it turns to increase in the future.
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13
January
2017
Daily Focus : 13 January 2017, SET probably in retreat, offering opportunity for selective buy
(views 648)
Last night, most U.S. and European equity markets turned to close down, pressured by a fall in pharmaceutical shares after the U.S. President-elect attacked the pharmaceutical industry at his first news conference the other day. Moreover, investors were disappointed that he did not reveal details on economic stimulus. As a result, most Asian stock markets continued to be quite volatile this morning. In addition, several continued to decrease. In Thailand, the SET saw selling pressure for many days after the index had rallied sharply earlier. For this reason, FSS expects the SET to continue to ease for a while before it turns to increase again in the future.
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12
January
2017
Daily Focus : 12 January 2017, SET continues to see pressure from selling; wait to buy on weakness
(views 598)
Last night, the U.S. president-elect Donald Trump made his first news conference after his victory in the presidential
election. It helped support Wall Street to rise for the first time in three days because at the media gathering he reaffirmed his intention to make America great again. In addition, global crude soared by nearly 3% after there was news that Saudi Arabia signaled its readiness to
further cut production. However, most Asian equity markets continued to be volatile and move within narrow range when they opened this
morning, while some continued to open lower and moved in negative territory. For this reason, FSS believes there is chance the SET will
open down after we have seen more pressure from selling at yesterdays close.
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11
January
2017
Daily Focus : 11 January 2017, Despite rebound, SET likely to continue to fall, serving as opportunity to buy
(views 537)
Several Asian equity markets continued to open higher. Even though Wall Street ended slightly down overnight, European stock markets continued to close up after U.S. dollar began to increase at a slower pace. However, the SET has rallied quite sharply even before the New Year, while there was no new catalyst. Given that, we begin to see selling to lock in profit in the last two days. Meanwhile, markets continue to see pressure from global crude which continued to drop by over 2% after it was reported that oil production increased in both the U.S. and Iraq. In addition, there is still concern over Italys banking sector and some investors might still want to wait for the U.S. president-elects first press conference tonight.
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10
January
2017
Daily Focus : 10 January 2017, SETs fall serves as opportunity to accumulate
(views 589)
This morning, investment sentiment in foreign equity markets was not bright because most U.S. and European stock markets ended lower last night after Lufthansa revised down its earnings forecast. In addition, global crude continued to fall by nearly 4% following the release of a report that U.S. oil rigs increased for the 10th week in a row. Given that, we expect the poor sentiment to put pressure on most Asian stock markets, causing them to move mostly in negative territory. In Thailand, stock markets need to remain cautious over selling in LTF, which might continue to put a cap on the SET. However, FSS believes downside is limited as the Baht continued to appreciate.
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09
January
2017
Daily Focus : 9 January 2017, SET likely to ease in near future; wait to buy on weakness
(views 565)
Although the Dow decreased by over 60 points in the beginning of last Fridays session, there continued to be buyback that supported the index to turn to increase by about 100 points and ended the day with a gain of over 60 points instead. In Europe, equity markets continued to close up as investors responded positively to U.S. non-farm payrolls in December, even though it increased less than expected, while global crude remained on its upward path. However, most Asian stock markets has considerably increased. As a result, there continued to be pressure from selling to lock in profit this morning, which made some of them to decrease. In Thailand, the SET has
increased quite sharply in almost 10 days. Hence, FSS believes the SET is likely to ease in the near future.
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06
January
2017
Daily Focus : 6 January 2017, Wait for buying weakness
(views 587)
The SET is expected to fluctuate after Wall Street and European markets closed lower. Macy’s posts disappointing holiday sales, likely to cuts workers and move forward with more than 60 store closures. ADP report was lower than market estimate. Investors are eying on jobs report tonight. The SET in the short term may be supported by increasing oil prices, but investors should remain cautious over selling to lock in profit.
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05
January
2017
Daily Focus : 5 January 2017, Beware of correction, wait for buying weakness
(views 678)
After surging more than 60 points last week, the SET could see some correction in the near future. LTF redemption could be sold. Asian equity markets are mixed in early trade today despite Wall Street and European shares closed higher. Investors should remain cautious over selling to lock in profit when the index increases.
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04
January
2017
Daily Focus : 4 January 2017, Beware of correction, wait for buying weakness
(views 661)
The SET is expected to rise today supported by strong PMI of China and the US as well as foreign equity markets closed in green. However, investors should remain cautious over selling to lock in profit when the index increases after global crude continued to weaken.
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30
December
2016
Daily Focus : 30 December 2016, Beware of early selling spree in bourse in early next year
(views 550)
Investors should beware of early selling spree in bourse after streak of mini rally moving close to our target of 1,550.
Our SET index target in 2017 of 1,650, assuming 12% EPS growth, offers limited upside from the current index level. Early next year, global investors still weigh Trump’s policy. LTF redemption could be sold. We suggest investors reduce portfolio risk, holding more cash.
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29
December
2016
Daily Focus : 29 December 2016, Wait to sell at target
(views 620)
SET Index would possibly slide today after 3 days of 30-point gains together with soft sentiment from Wall Street. US
indices pulled back from all-time high as pending home sales fell sharply. European stocks were mixed as investors keep a close eye on Banking sector. We expect SET index has limited downside supported by year-end buying in LTF/RMF and slight oil price increase.
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28
December
2016
Daily Focus : 28 December 2016, Wait to sell at target
(views 587)
US stocks ended slightly higher Tuesday supported by strong economic news while European stocks little changed. Investors
are still cautious around the broader Italian banking sector. Asian shares trade mixed in early trade today. We expect the SET index to fluctuate between small gains and losses, supported by slight oil price increase and year-end buying in LTF/RMF.
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27
December
2016
Daily Focus : 27 December 2016, Wait to sell at target
(views 583)
Asian shares resume trading today and are moderately higher in early trade. We expect the SET index to follow climb up to positive territory thanks to year-end buying in LTF/RMF. Oil gains ahead of OPEC and Non-OPEC cut, supporting downside the stock market.
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26
December
2016
Daily Focus : 26 December 2016, SET likely to rebound
(views 569)
Market volume is expected to thin out as many major equity markets are closed for Christmas holidays. Many investors are sitting on the sidelines, but losses are expect to limit while there is prospect that the index will rebound to move in positive territory thanks to year-end buying in LTF/RMF.
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23
December
2016
Daily Focus : 23 December 2016, Despite volatility, SET likely to steady and increase
(views 512)
This morning, foreign equity markets continued to be volatile and move within narrow range. To elaborate, although U.S.
stock markets continued to fall, the loss was quite small as investors slowed their trading before they are closed for Christmas holiday. Moreover, U.S. economic data were quite directionless. In particular, U.S.s final 3Q16 GDP estimate is higher than its first two forecasts. However, U.S. weekly jobless claims came in higher than expected, while November consumer spending recorded smaller-than-expected gain. In Europe, equity markets remained concerned over the stability of Italys banking sector. Given that, Asian stock markets opened lower this morning. Nonetheless, the loss was modest because there was support from a slight recovery in global crude. For this reason, FSS expects the SETs downside to be limited and there is prospect that the index will rebound to move in positive territory in the future.
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22
December
2016
Daily Focus : 22 December 2016, Despite fall, SET has strong support from buying; wait to sell at target
(views 606)
Foreign stock markets were quite volatile. Last night, both U.S. and European equity markets turned to end lower, pressured
by concern over Italys banking sector after the countrys third largest bank admitted that if unable to raise capital, it might be able to go on for just four months. In addition, global crude tumbled after the EIA reported that U.S. oil stockpiles increased in the last week, which is the opposite of street consensus for a fall. However, the losses were quite limited partly because it is now close to Christmas and New Year holidays. Given that, there is chance that selling will decrease. In Thailand, FSS expects the SETs downside to be limited. Furthermore, there is prospect that the index will rebound to move in positive territory thanks to year-end buying in LTF/RMF.
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21
December
2016
Daily Focus : 21 December 2016, SET likely to fall briefly prior to increase; maintain hold
(views 527)
Investment sentiment in foreign equity markets somewhat improved after both U.S. and European stock markets ended
up. Such gains were supported by a rise in banks after there was report that Italian government was preparing to help its financially troubled banks. In addition, investors remained hopeful that the working team of the next U.S. president would help revive U.S. banking sector. Meanwhile, global crude continued to recover, despite volatility and a slower rate of gain, as investors expected U.S. oil inventories, which is due out this evening, would decrease. Given that, FSS anticipates the SET to steady and there is chance that the index will turn to increase. However, investors need to remain cautious over volatility as the Baht continued to weaken.
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20
December
2016
Daily Focus : 20 December 2016, Expect SETs downside to be limited; recommend hold, waiting to sell at target
(views 537)
Last night, U.S. stock markets continued to move in positive territory, responding to the Feds statement that U.S. labor
market was near its 10-year peak. Given that, Asian equity markets movement started to get better this morning. In Thailand, FSS expects
the SET to climb thanks to buying in LTF/RMF at year-end. However, investors need to remain cautious over volatility. In particular, part of
the selling might come from concern over the news that Russian ambassador to Turkey was shot dead because the situation might taint
Russia-Turkey relationship. However, we believe the SETs downside is quite limited.
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19
December
2016
Daily Focus : 19 December 2016, Despite SETs loss, investors can wait to sell into strength
(views 542)
Investment sentiment in foreign equity markets was not bright this morning because Wall Street closed slightly lower due to the tension in the South China Sea after there was report that Chinese navy seized U.S. drone. Moreover, U.S. housing starts decreased more than expected in November, while crudes rally began to decelerate
and the Baht weakened. However, since we are now in the last two weeks of the year, FSS expects buying in LTF/RMF to help support the market. In this regard, the SETs downside is limited and there is
chance that the index will turn to rally to our target of 1550.
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16
December
2016
Daily Focus : 16 December 2016, Upside has narrowed; wait to take profit when index
(views 550)
Although the U.S. policy rate hike will continue to put pressure on Asian stock markets, investors have mostly factored in such news. Moreover, U.S. economic data came in strong. In particular, U.S. jobless claims decreased more than expected. They helped stimulate Wall Street and most European stock markets to turn to end up. Finally, global crude also slightly recovered after it fell to touch US$50 a barrel. Given that, many Asian stock markets began to see buyback that supported them to move in positive territory once again. In Thailand, the SET still has catalyst from buying in LTF/RMF in the last weeks of this year, which will provide support for the market. For this reason, FSS expects the SET to steady, waiting for a chance to
rally. However, investors need to be cautious over volatility after the Baht continued to decrease.
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15
December
2016
Daily Focus : 15 December 2016, Believe SET only takes breather after last round of rallies and
(views 547)
Last night, most European stock markets ended lower while waiting for results from FOMC meeting, which was widely
anticipated to hike policy rate for the first time this year. As it happened, the result is in line. The Fed announced a rise on its shortterm
rate by 0.25% and signaled that it would raise the benchmark rate three times next year. Such news put pressure on Wall Street, which
moved within narrow range in the beginning, and caused the Dow to end lower by nearly 100 points. Given that, most Asian equity markets
opened lower this morning as U.S. dollar appreciation pressured Asian currencies, the Baht included, to decrease. However, FSS continues to
believe that the SETs downside is limited. Moreover, there is still chance that the Thai main index will increase as expected thanks to
buying in LTF/RMF in the last few weeks of this year.
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14
December
2016
Daily Focus : 14 December 2016, SET likely to continue to increase to target, but upside starts to get narrow; recommend sell to lock in profit
(views 573)
This morning, investment sentiment remains good after Wall Street continued to end higher amid heavy trading after there was anticipation that the Fed would raise policy rate at this meeting. In Europe, most stock markets also ended higher, supported by a rebound in bank shares after Unicredit, a large bank in Italy, announced restructuring. Moreover, global crude also ended up after the EIA has revised up its global oil demand forecast for this year and next, while the Baht slightly appreciated. With that, FSS expects the SET to continue to rally, even though it was volatile and might decrease after most Asian equity markets continued to be volatile and decreased this morning.
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13
December
2016
Daily Focus : 13 December 2016, SET likely to be more volatile; wait to sell into strength
(views 573)
Wall Street continued to end up at a new high, supported by a rise in global crude after a production cut deal. The rise
also supported Asian stock markets to turn to increase this morning after most of them ended lower on December 12, while Thai stock
markets were closed. The Asian losses yesterday is attributed to strong U.S. economic data, which kept alive investor concern over a Fed rate hike a meeting on December 13-14. Given that, FSS expects the SET to remain volatile. Moreover, it might ease again after Thai stock markets has rallied quite sharply in the past 2-3 weeks. However, downside should be limited because there is support from a rise in global crude. Furthermore, the Bahts loss also decelerate and there were even times that the currency appreciated.
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09
December
2016
Daily Focus : 9 December 2016, SET close to target and implies limited upside; gradually sell
(views 673)
This morning, foreign equity markets were quite bright after the ECB resolved to extend its asset purchase by another nine months. Given that, most U.S. and European stock markets continued to end strongly up. Meanwhile, global crude also recovered by over 2% thanks to speculative buying before a meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC countries tomorrow (i.e. December 10), which should help support the SET to continue to rally, as expected. However, the ECB president also indicated that a cut in its asset purchase will still start after 1Q17. As a result, Asian equity markets gain this morning started to be limited. Whats more, the Thai index has increased to where it is now close to our target of 1550 and implies limited upside. In addition, equity in the TIP markets will be closed on Monday, December 12. Hence, investors need to be cautious over selling which will pressure the SET to be volatile and retreat.
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08
December
2016
Daily Focus : 8 December 2016, SET likely to continue to increase amid volatility
(views 613)
Yesterday, the SET started to see support from buying once again, particularly in large cap counters. Moreover, foreign
equity markets movement also continued to be bright this morning after both U.S. and European stock markets surged and ended up quite strongly thanks to the anticipation that the ECB will extend its QE at a meeting today to intercept possible impacts from the Italian referendum result the other day. Given that, most Asian equity markets opened higher this morning. In Thailand, although the SET is likely to continue to rally as we have anticipated, investors need to remain cautious over selling to lock in profit when the index increases after global crude continued to weaken. Whats more, the SET will be closed on a bank holiday early next week (i.e. December 12) before there will be FOMC meeting on December 13-14. As a result, there is chance that the index will increase amid volatility.
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07
December
2016
Daily Focus : 7 December 2016, SET starts to rebound; recommend hold in order to sell into strength
(views 518)
Sentiment in most foreign stock markets remains bright after both U.S. and European stock markets continued to end up
last night. Such gains were made possible by strong U.S. economic data. Specifically, factory orders surged to its one-year high. Moreover, investors were hopeful about an ECB meeting due tomorrow (December 8). In Thailand, the SET saw stronger buyback momentum since yesterdays afternoon. Given that, FSS expects such momentum to continue to support the SET to continue to rally, as expected. However, investors need to remain cautious over volatility and weakness while the index increases. Such scenario is likely to be pressured by global crude which began to decrease and investors decision to remain on the sidelines, waiting for ECB meeting results tomorrow.
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06
December
2016
Daily Focus : 6 December 2016, SETs loss serves as opportunity to buy
(views 543)
Yesterday (i.e. December 5), the SET was closed for a day, while most international markets tumbled quite considerably due
to the concern over a Fed rate hike after U.S. non-farm payrolls increased, as expected. Moreover, Italians voted no in a referendum result for constitutional reform. Given that, investors were concerned about Italys stability. However, the ECB plans a policy meeting on December 8, when investors believe that the central bank is ready to raise its purchase of Italian bonds. As a result, many Asian stock markets started to recover this morning. In Thailand, FSS continues to
believe that the SETs downside is limited and there is prospect that the Thai main index will continue to rally, supported by domestic factors.
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02
December
2016
Daily Focus : 2 December 2016, SET still stands a chance to rally, recommend hold
(views 550)
Wall Street continued to rally to end at a record high last night. The gain was supported by a rise in energy shares which positively responded to an OPECs resolution to slash output. However, there was pressure from tech shares fall. Given that, the gain was limited. Meanwhile, most European equity markets were down as investors slowed their trading while keeping an eye on Italys constitutional referendum on December 4. Given that, many Asian
stock markets decreased this morning. Meantime, the SET saw higher selling pressure yesterdays afternoon. Hence, there is prospect that the index will continue to fall. Nonetheless, the Bahts outlook begins to turn upward. Hence, FSS expects downside to be limited and it is still possible that the index will continue to rally as anticipated.
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01
December
2016
Daily Focus : 1 December 2016, Although SET likely to continue to rally, watch out on
(views 571)
This morning, Asian stock markets continued to open strong after global crude surged by over 9% last night thanks to in-line OPEC meeting result. Specifically, the oil cartel has cut a deal to slash its oil production for the first time in eight years. Given that, FSS believes that the SET will continue to rally. However, Wall Street began to see selling that pressured it to ease and end only slightly up after investors turned to concerned again about the outlook that the Fed would raise policy rate at a meeting in mid this month (December 13-14) instead. Meantime, some investors continued to wait for U.S.
non-farm payrolls, which are due out this Friday, while the Baht continued to weaken. Hence, we recommend that investors watch out on market volatility.
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30
November
2016
Daily Focus : 30 November 2016, SET likely to ease prior to rallies; recommend hold
(views 687)
Last night, both U.S. and European stock markets turned to end up. However, the gains were quite limited. They were supported by U.S. 3Q16 GDP which expanded the most in two years and house price which surged to its 10-year high. However, they were capped by global crude which tumbled by nearly 4% after Russia, a non-OPEC member, refused to attend the meeting scheduled on November 30 because it would like the OPEC to talk among them first. Given that, investors were not confident about results from the meeting much. Today, although Asian stock markets opened higher, they moved within narrow range. As a result, FSS expects the SET to steady, moving within narrow range while waiting for OPEC meeting result today.
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29
November
2016
Daily Focus : 29 November 2016, SET might ease before it turns to rally
(views 621)
Global crude decreased, putting considerable intraday pressure on the SET. Moreover, it put a cap on both U.S. and European stock markets in the evening, making them move mostly in negative territory. However, the loss was modest. After which, crude turned to recover. Specifically, it rallied by over 2% after there was report that Iraq was ready to cooperate with OPEC members in order to reach a deal that is acceptable to all parties. As a result, although the SET might continue to be pressured by the weak sentiment abroad, FSS expects downside to be limited thanks to support from the oil price recovery. Whats more, U.S. dollar started to depreciate lately, helping the Baht to appreciate. Given all that, we expect the SET to move sideways up.
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28
November
2016
Daily Focus : 28 November 2016, Despite volatility, SET likely to turn to climb; recommend
(views 535)
U.S. and European stock markets continued to end higher thanks to speculative buying in commerce shares, which were
expected to benefit from Black Friday sales (November 25) before Christmas. However, they did not support sentiment in Asia much this morning because global crude turned to tumble by nearly 4% due to the concern that the OPEC would not reach a deal to cut oil production on this Wednesday (November 30) after Saudi Arabia had pulled out from
an informal meeting due to take place today (November 28). Given that, FSS expects the SET to be volatile and retreat. However, we believe downside is limited and there is chance that the index will turn to climb as we has anticipated.
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25
November
2016
Daily Focus : 25 November 2016, SET likely to ease briefly before rally
(views 463)
Investment sentiment in international equity markets was brighter this morning. Wall Street was closed last night to observe Thanksgiving day, resulting in steady U.S. dollar. In Europe, most equity markets continued to end up after German economic data came in strong. Given that, Asian stock markets opened higher this morning. Although the gain was quite modest, it should help support buying in Thai equity markets. Given all that, FSS expects the SET to ease only briefly. Moreover, downside is likely to be limited. Specifically, we expect buyback momentum to help drive the index to climb, as expected. As we are about to enter the last month of the year, foreign investors selling should get narrower. In addition, there should be a driver from buying in both LTF/RMF as we are about to turn the corner to next year.
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24
November
2016
Daily Focus : 24 November 2016, SET likely to ease before turning to rally after days of gain
(views 520)
Last night, Wall Street continued to close up. To elaborate, it ended at a new high, for the third straight day, thanks to
a report on U.S. durable goods orders in October, which surged to its one-year high. However, such gain caused U.S. dollar to continue to appreciation, which in turn pressured Asian currencies to turn to decrease. Given that, most Asian equity markets opened lower this morning. In Thailand, FSS expects the Asian loss to pressure the SET to also decrease after Thai equity markets have considerably increased this week. Nonetheless, we expect the SETs downside to be quite limited after global crude stabilized well, while waiting for OPEC meeting on November 30, which should serve as a catalyst. Whats more, foreign net outflow decreased, while its now close to year-end. Hence, there should be buying in LTF/RMF to support the market.
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23
November
2016
Daily Focus : 23 November 2016, Despite volatility, SET likely to continue to rally
(views 544)
The SET has increased sharply in the last three days, while there was no clear catalyst, causing market volatility to increase
quite considerably. For this reason, we recommend that investors watch out on a fall after global crude turned to decrease. However,
FSS expects the SETs loss, if any, to be quite limited after most foreign equity markets continued to strongly increase. Looking ahead, FSS views that the decline in foreign investors net outflow will give rise to domestic funds role. Since the end of 2016 draws near, we could expect buying in LTF/RMF to help support near-term markets. Strategy: After bets are placed, we now recommend that investors continue to hold because we expect the SET to continue to rally.
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22
November
2016
Daily Focus : 22 November 2016, SET likely to continue to increase; recommend hold
(views 558)
Wall Street and most European stock markets ended strongly higher yesterday, supported by global crude which surged by
nearly 4% after Russia announced its readiness to cooperate in output freeze and expressed confidence that the OPEC would cut a deal at a meeting on November 30. Meanwhile, U.S. dollar started to ease slightly, triggering the Baht to appreciate. This morning, most Asian equity markets continued to open higher. Given that, FSS believes the SET will continue to increase. However, investors should be cautious about volatility as the concern over a Fed rate hike continues to put a cap on markets.
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21
November
2016
Daily Focus : 21 November 2016, SET stabilizes better and likely to rebound; recommend hold
(views 539)
Last week, U.S. dollars gain started to slow after investors feared that the quick U.S. dollar appreciation might hurt earnings of export-dependent companies. Given that, the Bahts fall began to ease. Meanwhile, global crude turned to recover again, supported by an anticipation that the OPEC would reach a deal to cut oil production an informal meeting on November 30. As a result, FSS expects the SET to see limited downside and there is prospect that the index will turn to rebound again shortly.
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18
November
2016
Daily Focus : 18 November 2016, SET sees support amid fall; recommend hold
(views 545)
U.S. dollar continued to appreciate, pressuring the Baht to turn to weaken, after the Fed chair testified before Congress
that a rate hike might take place shortly. Given that, investors believed that the FOMC would raise policy rate at a meeting on
December 13-14. For this reason, there is chance that the SET will continue to retreat today. However, Asian equity markets did not
respond negatively this morning as most of them continued to move in narrow range due to optimism that the Fed would gradually increase
benchmark rate. Meanwhile, global crude was pressured as investors waited for the OPECs and Russias stance at an informal meeting this
weekend.
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17
November
2016
Daily Focus : 17 November 2016, SET still likely to continue to increase despite volatility after rebound
(views 570)
Last night, Wall Street turned to end slightly lower, while most European stock markets began to see selling pressure after Saint Louis Fed President urged the FOMC to raise policy rate at the next meeting on December 13-14. That put a cap on Asian equity markets this morning, causing them to be volatile and retreat. However, FSS expects the SETs downside to be limited after the Bahts weakness started to ease. Moreover, global crude turned to recover in the end yesterday, waiting for an informal meeting between the OPEC and Russia late this week, which will indicate success of OPEC meeting at the end of this month, i.e. on November 30. Strategy: We maintain our call for investors to hold, waiting for a new round of rallies. For new bets, we suggest that they are placed on
weakness.
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16
November
2016
Daily Focus : 16 November 2016, SET begins to see new support and likely to rebound; recommend hold
(views 750)
This morning, most Asian stock markets continued to increase after U.S. dollars gain slowed, while global crude ended sharply up by nearly 6% yesterday after investors had more bullish view that an OPEC meeting late this month (i.e. on November 30) would reach a deal to cut output because there was news that Iraq and Iran were considering to cut their oil production. However, since there is yet to be clarity, the SET might continue to increase amid volatility and retreat periodically, while some investors wait for EIAs U.S. oil
inventory report due out tonight.
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15
November
2016
Daily Focus : 15 November 2016, Although SET falls more than expected, index still likely to rebound as expected
(views 474)
The SET has tumbled in the last two days. Moreover, although Asian equity markets continued to decrease this morning, there was a certain degree of buyback to provide support, making it possible for each market to recoup some of its loss. In the U.S., Wall Street began to increase at a slower pace, while U.S. dollars gain
started to decrease. After which, the Baht turned to slightly increase. Moreover, global crude began to recover. Although it ended lower, the loss was smaller than it was earlier. Given that, FSS expects the SETs downside to be limited. Whats more, there is chance that there will be buyback that supports Thai equity markets to turn to rally again as we have anticipated. Nevertheless, investors might need to be cautious over volatility at this time.
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14
November
2016
Daily Focus : 14 November 2016, SETs downside likely limited; hold
(views 583)
Investment sentiment in foreign equity markets was quite directionless. Wall Street started to increase at a slower pace after the Vice President of the Fed said that there was more ground that supported the central bank to unwind its easing. Given that, investors were more convinced that the Fed prepared to raise policy rate at a meeting mid-next month, i.e. December 13-14. In addition, global crude also dropped by nearly 3% due to concern over global supply glut, while the Baht decreased by nearly 2% last week.
However, the Thai currency started to stabilize, while global crude slightly recovered. Hence, FSS expects to SET to see limited downside. Whats more, there is chance there will be buying to bet on earnings results and Thailands economic recovery, which will support the index to turn to rally.
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11
November
2016
Daily Focus : 11 November 2016, SET likely to continue to rally; recommend hold
(views 496)
Last night, Wall Street continued to rally after investors believed Trumps policies would help ease restrictions on banks and stimulate spending on infrastructure. With that, banks and industrial shares continued to surge. Moreover, U.S. weekly jobless claims also decreased more than expected. However, European equity markets were pressured by selling to lock in profit, while crude turned
to decrease. Although hope increased that the Fed might postpone policy rate hike further, some investors would still like to wait for the Feds stance. Given that, several Asian stock markets were volatile and ease this morning, while the Baht weakened, putting a cap on Thai equity markets. For these reasons, although FSS believes that the SET will continue to rally, investors need to be cautious on volatility.
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10
November
2016
Daily Focus : 10 November 2016, SET quickly recovers amid volatility; recommend hold
(views 553)
This morning, international equity markets turned to move better after both U.S. and European stock markets managed to turn to end up by over 1% last night thanks to strong buying in bank, healthcare and industrials shares after optimism that the policies of the new U.S. President would support the business sector and drive the economy to grow strong. With that, Asian stock markets turned from its yesterdays plunge and opened higher this morning. In Thailand, FSS continues to believe that the SET will continue to climb after the index dropped and recovered quickly yesterday. Such rally should be made possible by corporate earnings and the domestic economy which we expect to recover strongly next year.
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09
November
2016
Daily Focus : 9 November 2016, SET likely to continue to rally; recommend hold
(views 524)
This morning, investment sentiment in foreign equity markets continued to be bright as some of the ballots cast have been
counted and results are quite in line with investor expectation. Moreover, global crude continued to slightly recover yesterday after
the OPEC had revised up their global demand forecast for 2017. Since we have to wait until afternoon before U.S. presidential election result becomes clear, we expect the SET to be quite volatile after the index has rallied in the last two days to price in U.S. presidential election result. However, FSS expects the SETs downside to be limited and there is still prospect that the index will continue to increase.
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08
November
2016
Daily Focus : 8 November 2016, SET likely to continue to increase; recommend hold
(views 479)
This morning, investment sentiment in international markets was quite bright because most U.S. and European stock
markets ended sharply up after investors turned to feel more confident that Mrs. Clinton will win in U.S. presidential election tonight. Moreover, global crude began to recover to move in positive territory again after an earthquake erupted close to U.S. oil hub, triggering fear over supply. Meanwhile, foreign investors selling in Thailand started to fade. Given all that, FSS expects the SET to continue to move in the positive territory. However, investors still need to be cautious over periodic volatility from selling to lock in short-term profit.
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07
November
2016
Daily Focus : 7 November 2016, SET likely to bounce back after considerable decrease
(views 537)
Last Friday, both U.S. and European stock markets ended lower due to investor caution over sell after there was uncertainty over U.S. presidential election result. Although U.S. nonfarm payrolls in October increased less than expected, it was still at a level that triggered fear about a Fed rate hike in mid-December. However, most Asian equity markets turned to open higher again this morning after the Dow Jones Futures turned to move up by nearly 200 points thanks to news that the director of the FBI confirmed to U.S. House of Representatives that Mrs. Hillary Clinton did not commit any criminal offence from the use of her personal emails while in office.
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04
November
2016
Daily Focus : 4 November 2016, Despite volatility, SET still likely to increase
(views 498)
Last night, Wall Street was pressured by uncertainty over U.S. presidential election result after Mr. Donald Trump began to
pick up speed and was now close to Mrs. Hillary Clinton. Moreover, the Fed also signaled a policy rate hike at a meeting next month, while global crude continued to tumble by another 1% after the EIA reported that U.S. oil inventories increased more than expected, while OPEC oil output in October continued to hit new high. Given that, Asian stock markets continued to open lower this morning. We believe that this will also put pressure on the SET and make the Thai main index to be volatile and retreat. Nonetheless, Asia equity markets loss was still limited. Hence, FSS also expects the SET to see limited downside.
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03
November
2016
Daily Focus : 3 November 2016, SET continues to stabilize well; recommend hold
(views 483)
The SET continued to see pressure from the concern over U.S. presidential election. Moreover, the anxiety over a Fed rate
hike continued to cloud the market. Although the latest FOMC meeting last night resolved to keep policy rate on hold, it signaled a rate increase at the next meeting on December 13-14. Meanwhile, some investors continued to wait U.S. non-farm payrolls late this week in order to forecast if the Fed would raise interest rate at the next meeting or not. Given that, the SET is still likely to be volatile. However, FSS continues to believe that the SETs fall will be limited and there is chance that it will turn to rally shortly.
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02
November
2016
Daily Focus : 2 November 2016, SET sees support from buying amid volatility; recommend hold
(views 492)
We view that investors still need to watch on selling to lock in profit which might pressure the SET to decrease after both U.S. and European stock markets tumbled quite sharply overnight due to investor disappointment on some corporate earnings and uncertainty over U.S. presidential election on November 8 after polls suggested that the two key candidates were now a close tie. Moreover, global crude continued to weaken due to pressure from supply glut, while some investors remained on the sidelines, waiting for results from FOMC meeting tonight (November 2). Nonetheless, FSS expects downside to be limited and there is chance that the SET will turn to rally shortly.
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01
November
2016
Daily Focus : 1 November 2016, SETs decrease serves as opportunity to buy
(views 682)
Foreign sentiment was not bright, pressured by global crude which tumbled by nearly 4% yesterday after the informal
meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC officials did not produce additional result. Although they said that there was positive
development, that did not very much ease investors. As a result, Asian stock markets continued to move in negative territory this morning.
Meanwhile, foreign investor continued to record a net sell position in Thailand. Hence, FSS expects the SET to continue to move sideways
down. However, downside should be limited and there is prospect that there will be buying that drives the index back to positive territory
shortly.
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31
October
2016
Daily Focus : 31 October 2016, Despite possible retreat, downside limited
(views 735)
Investment sentiment in foreign equity markets this morning looks bleak after the FBI prepared to resume its investigation
in Hillary Clintons private email case, which triggered investor concern over U.S. presidential result next week. Whats more, U.S.s 3Q16 GDP also expanded more than expected, which might cause the Fed to decide to raise interest rate shortly. Meanwhile, European corporate earnings continued to look weak and French economy was weaker than expected. Given that, most Asian equity markets continued to open lower and FSS expects the SET to continue to retreat. However, the Thai index continued to see support from buying when it decreased. Hence, although it was down, it stabilized quite well. For this reason, we believe that downside is quite limited. After which, we predict the SET to turn to rally.
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28
October
2016
Daily Focus : 28 October 2016, SET likely to be volatile before rally; buy on weakness
(views 484)
Yesterdays afternoon, global crude began to recover, which supported for the SET to close higher. Today, we expect the gain
to continue to support the market after there was positive news that Saudi Arabia and its alliances in the Persian Gulf reiterated their intention to cut output by 4%. In Europe, stock markets also increased after Britain 3Q16 GDP expanded more than expected. On the other side of the Atlantics, Wall Street continued to be pressured by weak corporate earnings and a surprise decline in U.S. durable goods orders, which made the market to be volatile. However, the loss was quite limited. Given that, most Asian stock markets were also volatile, moving within narrow range this morning. In Thailand, FSS also expects the SET to remain volatile. However, downside is limited and there is prospect that the index will continue to increase in the end.
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27
October
2016
Daily Focus : 27 October 2016, SET likely to ease in near term, serving as opportunity to buy
(views 543)
We maintain our call for investors to gradually buy on weakness. After which, it is suggested that investors hold, waiting for a new round of rallies.
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26
October
2016
Daily Focus : 26 October 2016, SET likely to fall; wait to buy on weakness
(views 595)
We maintain our call for investors to hold long-term investment and selectively place new bets on weakness.
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25
October
2016
Daily Focus : 25 October 2016, SET likely to fall; wait to buy on weakness
(views 587)
We maintain our call for investors to hold long-term investment and selectively place new bets on weakness.
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21
October
2016
Daily Focus : 21 October 2016, SET has sharply increased and continues to be capped; buy on weakness
(views 480)
Strategy: We recommend that investors hold their long-term investment. For new bets, it is advisable to gradually place them on
weakness.
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20
October
2016
Daily Focus : 20 October 2016, SET risks to fall; wait to buy on weakness
(views 534)
We recommend that investors continue to hold long-term position and wait to place new bets on weakness. For trading, sell
some into strength and wait to buy back when the index decreases.
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19
October
2016
Daily Focus : 19 October 2016, SET likely to fall; wait to buy on weakness
(views 518)
We recommend that investors hold their long-term investment and wait to accumulate new position on weakness. For trading, sell some into strength and wait to buy back when the index decreases.
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18
October
2016
Daily Focus : 18 October 2016, SET likely to modestly retreat prior to rally
(views 638)
We maintain our call for investors to buy on weakness. After which, we recommend that investors hold, waiting for a new round of rallies before locking profit.
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17
October
2016
Daily Focus : 17 October 2016, Wait to buy on weakness
(views 549)
Wait to buy on weakness. For trading bet, sell into strength and buy on weakness.
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14
October
2016
Daily Focus : 14 October 2016, Despite high volatility, hold
(views 617)
We recommend that investors continue to hold already-have position, waiting for market recovery. However, it is suggested that
new bet are placed only for trading. In this regard, the buy on weakness and sell into strength recommendation is still valid.
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13
October
2016
Daily Focus : 13 October 2016, Given high volatility, put off on buying; hold already-have position
(views 572)
The SET continued to be volatile. As a result, investors might want to slow their buying. However, it is suggested that investors keep the position that they already have.
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12
October
2016
Daily Focus : 12 October 2016, SET likely to steady and then rebound; recommend HOLD
(views 463)
The SET has decreased quite sharply. As a result, FSS believes there is chance that the index will begin to steady, waiting for opportunity to rebound. For this reason, following our BUY call, we now recommend that investors hold.
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11
October
2016
Daily Focus : 11 October 2016, SET likely to steady and rebound, despite larger-than-expected fall
(views 509)
We maintain our call for investors to selectively buy and then hold, waiting for a new round of rallies to lock in profit.
Read More
10
October
2016
Daily Focus : 10 October 2016, SET likely to decrease modestly; serving as opportunity to buy
(views 515)
We continue to recommend that investors selectively buy and then hold, waiting for a new round of rallies.
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07
October
2016
Daily Focus : 7 October 2016, SET likely to be volatile and retreat; serving as opportunity to buy
(views 499)
If the SET decreases, we view it as an opportunity to selectively buy and then hold, waiting for the next round of rallies.
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06
October
2016
Daily Focus : 6 October 2016, Selectively buy on weakness and then hold, waiting for new round of rallies
(views 499)
We maintain our call for investors to selectively buy and then hold, waiting for a new round of rallies. We stand by our end-2016
target at 1650 points.
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05
October
2016
Daily Focus : 5 October 2016, SET likely to be volatile; buy on weakness
(views 565)
We maintain our call for investors to selectively buy on weakness and then hold, waiting for a new large round of rallies.
Read More
04
October
2016
Daily Focus : 4 October 2016, SET likely to modestly decrease and turn to rally
(views 772)
We maintain our call for investors to accumulate on weakness and then hold for medium- to long-term investment.
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03
October
2016
Daily Focus : 3 October 2016, SETs fall likely to be brief and to be followed by rally
(views 512)
FSS maintains our call for investors to accumulate on weakness and then hold for medium- to long-term investments.
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30
September
2016
Daily Focus : 30 September 2016, SET likely to be volatile and retreat; buy on weakness
(views 524)
We maintain our call for investors to buy on weakness. After which, we recommend that investors hold for mid- to long-term
investments.
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29
September
2016
Daily Focus : 29 September 2016, SET has sharply decreased and likely to rebound
(views 455)
FSS maintains our call for investors to selectively buy. After which, we recommend that investors hold, waiting to sell when the index increases to our target of 1650.
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28
September
2016
Daily Focus : 28 September 2016, Buy on weakness and hold, waiting for new round of rallies
(views 493)
FSS expects the SET to retreat only briefly before it turns to climb. For this reason, we recommend that investors selectively buy on weakness and then hold, waiting to sell into strength.
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27
September
2016
Daily Focus : 27 September 2016, SET likely to steady before rally; buy on weakness and hold, waiting to sell into strength
(views 614)
We expect the SET to decrease briefly before it turns to climb shortly. For this reason, we continue to recommend that investors buy on weakness and then hold, waiting to sell into strength.
Read More
26
September
2016
Daily Focus : 26 September 2016, SET likely to fall briefly, which serves as opportunity to buy
(views 530)
Selectively buy if the market decreases. After which, hold.
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23
September
2016
Daily Focus : 23 September 2016, SET likely to ease after strong rebounds; buy on weakness
(views 520)
Hold already-have position, waiting for a new round of rallies. Place new bets on weakness.
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22
September
2016
Daily Focus : 22 September 2016, SET likely to continue to increase; hold already-have position
(views 538)
We recommend that investors hold already-have position, waiting for a new round of rallies. However, if new bets are needed, they should be placed on weakness.
Read More
21
September
2016
Daily Focus : 21 September 2016, SET falls only to wait for new round of rallies; recommend hold
(views 625)
The SET decreased, helping reduce the heat from the rebounds in the past week or so. Looking ahead, we expect the index
to begin to steady and bounce back. Hence, if the market decreases, we recommend that investors buy and then hold, waiting for a new
round of rallies.
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20
September
2016
Daily Focus : 20 September 2016, SET might fall prior to rally
(views 561)
In the near term, we expect the SET to fall from 1500 (+/-). However, downside is limited and there is prospect that it will rally to
1650 in the end. For this reason, investors can lock in profit on trading bets and wait to buy them back on weakness.
Read More
19
September
2016
Daily Focus : 19 September 2016, Despite possible retreats, SET still likely to continue to rally; recommend HOLD
(views 632)
FSS continues to believe that in the near term the SET will climb to 1500 (+/-), the level seen after the first panic sell, or higher.
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16
September
2016
Daily Focus : 16 September 2016, SET likely to continue to rally amid volatility; hold already have position
(views 570)
In the near term, we expect the SET to increase to 1500 (+/-), which will offer opportunity to lock in profit. However, FSS recommends that investors hold for long-term investment and bet that the index increases to our target of 1650.
Read More
15
September
2016
Daily Focus : 15 September 2016, Market likely to increase amid volatility; hold already-have position
(views 604)
We believe the SET is swinging upward after the index has sharply decreased earlier. In the near term, there is chance it will rally
to 1500 (+/-), a level seen early last week before the first round of panic sells. For this reason, we recommend investors hold after bets
are placed.
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14
September
2016
Daily Focus : 14 September 2016, SET likely to steady amid volatility before rally; recommend hold
(views 563)
FSS continues to believe that the SET will climb to our end-2016 target of 1650. For this reason, should markets retreat, it will serve as opportunity to buy. After which, we recommend that investors hold, waiting for a new round of rallies.
Read More
13
September
2016
Daily Focus : 13 September 2016, Hold after accumulation, waiting to lock in profit
(views 552)
After accumulation, we now recommend that investors hold, waiting for the SET to rally. We maintain our end-2016 target at 1650.
Read More
12
September
2016
Daily Focus : 12 September 2016, Hold already-have position; wait to place new bets on weakness
(views 611)
Following our call to accumulate, we now recommend that investors hold, waiting for the SET to rally to our target of 1650. However, investors may wait for clarity from Fed meeting before placing new bet.
Read More
09
September
2016
Daily Focus : 9 September 2016, Hold already-have position; wait to place new one after Fed meeting
(views 571)
Following our call for investors to accumulate on weakness, we now recommend that investors hold, waiting for the SET to increase to our index target of 1650. Should one want to place more bets, it is advisable to wait for clarity from the upcoming Fed meeting.
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08
September
2016
Daily Focus : 8 September 2016, Despite fall, SET likely to steady, waiting for rallies
(views 643)
The SET is likely to continue to be pressured by selling after Wall Street moved mostly in negative territory last night due to the latest Feds Beige Book, which indicated that U.S. economy only expanded modestly in July and August. Given that, most Asian stock markets opened lower this morning. However, the losses were not large because in the end the Dow turned to increase and ended only slightly lower overnight, supported by global crude which closed up by nearly 1.5% thanks to speculative buying before the EIAs release of U.S. oil inventories tonight. For this reason, although FSS expects the SET to see more loss, the index is likely to move sideways, waiting
for a new round of rallies in the future.

Strategy: We continue to recommend that investors accumulate and then hold, waiting for the SET to increase to our target of 1650.
Read More
07
September
2016
Daily Focus : 7 September 2016, SET decreases to reduce heat; buy on weakness
(views 541)
This morning, international markets do not look too bad, although most Asian equity markets continued to be volatile and were mixed. However, Wall Street continued to rally as the report that U.S. service sector in August expanded at the lowest rate in six years helped keeping alive the hope that the Fed would not raise policy rate shortly. Although global crude was quite volatile, it continued to
increase by nearly 1%, positively responding to news that Saudi Arabia and Russia would cooperate to stabilize oil market, while Iran
supported oil producing countries to continue to maintain stability in the market. Given all that, FSS expects the SET to stabilize better,
waiting for a new round of rallies in the future.

Strategy: We continue to recommend that investors accumulate and then hold, waiting for the SET to increase our index target of 1650.
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06
September
2016
Daily Focus : 6 September 2016, Opportunity to buy
(views 504)
Although US markets closed yesterday and European stock markets closed slightly lower, improved economic data from Chinese, increasing crude oil prices, and continued net buy positions from foreign investors should help sentiment for Thai market. We still maintain our SET target at 1650 at yearend.

Strategy: The SETs retreat offers opportunity to accumulate.
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05
September
2016
Daily Focus : 5 September 2016, Hold for those who have positions; New buyers should buy on weakness
(views 577)
Global stock markets advance after US August jobs data disappoint, which pare expectations the FED would hike interest rates in September. Oil rose almost 3% after news that Russia and OPEC will agree to freeze production at a meeting late this month. We expect the SET to rebound with cautious on volatility.

Strategy: The SETs retreat offers opportunity to accumulate.
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02
September
2016
Daily Focus : 2 September 2016, SET likely to continue to fall; buy on weakness
(views 565)
Last night, Wall Street turned to end slightly up, supported by a rise in tech shares, after the Dow dropped by more than 100 points in the beginning. However, sentiment was weak as investors continued to wait for U.S. non-farm payrolls in August that is due out tonight. Meanwhile, global crude continued to plunge by over 3% after investors began to feel uncertain about an unofficial meeting of OPEC member countries on September 26-28. This morning, Asian stock markets continued to retreat. Given all that, we expect the SET to see selling pressure.

Strategy: As the SET is likely to continue to decrease, we maintain our call for investors to selectively buy on weakness.
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01
September
2016
Daily Focus : 1 September 2016, SET likely to continue to fall; wait to buy on weakness
(views 533)
The SET continued to be volatile, moving back and forth within narrow range, the last few days without fresh catalyst. Global crude continued to drop by over 3% last night after the EIA reported a higher-than-expected surge in U.S. oil inventory in the latest week. Moreover, the ADP revealed a larger-than-expected rise in U.S. private-sector employment, enhancing the concern over prospect
that the Fed would hike policy rate shortly. Given that, FSS expects the SET to move sideways down as some investors may decide to slow their investment, waiting for other U.S. economic data tonight and U.S. nonfarm payrolls on Fridays evening.

Strategy: Although the SET steadied, there was no catalyst. For this reason, we continue to recommend that investors gradually buy on weakness
Read More
31
August
2016
Daily Focus : 31 August 2016, SET likely to continue to retreat, serving as opportunity to buy
(views 582)
Asian stock markets continued to be directionless after Wall Street started to decrease last night, pressured by a fall in Apple Inc. share and a decline in U.S. housing data. Meanwhile, investors continued to keep their eye on U.S. non-farm payrolls in August that is due out on Friday, September 2. An EC report indicated that the ESI in August dropped more than expected. Global crude continued to weaken by over 1% as investors continued to wait for the EIAs release of U.S. oil stockpiles tonight. Given all that, FSS believes that the SET will continue to move down rather than up.

Strategy: We recommend that investors continue to selectively buy on weakness because we believe that after the SET will turn to a new round of rallies after it has decreased.
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30
August
2016
Daily Focus : 30 August 2016, SET likely to move sideways down, serving as opportunity to buy
(views 528)
Although the SET might continue to steady, FSS believes the index will move mostly sideways down after Wall Street rallied all day and ended up by over 100 points, positively responding to U.S. consumer spending which continued to surge for the fourth straight month. In addition, there was buying in bank shares thanks to speculation over a Fed rate hike. Given that, it is unlikely that the gain in the DJIA will support domestic buying much. Meanwhile, global crude remained weak due to news about a rise in OPEC oil output. Looking ahead, we expect some investors to remain on the sidelines, waiting for U.S. employment data late this week to determine interest rate outlook.

Strategy: We maintain our call for investors to selectively buy on weakness. We believe that after the SET decreases, it will turn to make a new round of rallies
Read More
29
August
2016
Daily Focus : 29 August 2016, SET likely to continue to fall, providing opportunity to buy
(views 591)
International markets continued to be volatile and retreat. Although the Fed Chair reiterated the central banks stance
that a policy rate hike will be gradual, its Vice Chairman signaled that the Fed might raise benchmark rate more than once in 2016, while
there are three more meetings scheduled this year. In addition, there is prospect that the hike will begin at a meeting in September. Given
that, there are pressure on markets. Key indicators for a rate increase will be U.S. employment rate that is due out early month (i.e. on
September 2-3). As a result, some investors will continue to wait for that data and FSS expects the SET to continue to move downward.

Strategy: As we believe the SET will continue to decrease to build up base for a new round of rallies, we maintain our call for investors to
wait and buy on weakness.
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26
August
2016
Daily Focus : 26 August 2016, SET begins to fall, serving as opportunity to accumulate
(views 486)
The SET continued to increase in the morning, after it ended strong a day earlier, thanks to support from buying in
blue-chip counters. However, there was no fresh catalyst and investors continued to wait for the Fed Chairs statement at Jackson Hole tonight (August 26), the index turned to decrease as anticipated.
Todays outlook: This morning, foreign equity markets were not bright. Specifically, U.S. stock markets continued to decrease as investors continued to wait for the Fed Chairs statement at Jackson Hole to catch a signal for U.S. policy rate hike. Moreover, European stock markets also closed lower after Germany business confidence index in August dropped sharply. Given that, Asian equity markets continued to open lower this morning. Although the losses were modest, we believe it is sufficient to cause the SET to continue to decrease. However,global crude began to see support from speculative buying after it tumbled by nearly 3% the other day as investors remained hopeful that oil-producing countries unofficial meeting on September 26-28 would produce concrete result. For this reason, investors may continue to bet that this fall will be followed by a new round of rallies. We maintain our call for investors to selectively buy on weakness.
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25
August
2016
Daily Focus : 25 August 2016, SET likely to continue to fall; wait to buy on weakness
(views 501)
International stock markets were not quite bright. Although most European equity markets continued to end higher thanks to optimism that the European banking sector outlook remains strong over the long run. However, Wall Street was volatile, moving more in negative territory. After which, it ended lower due to a sharp fall in global crude after the EIA revealed that U.S. oil stockpiles increased last week, while U.S. existing home sales in July dropped sharply. Moreover, healthcare shares saw sell-off after a large U.S. pharmaceutical was heavily criticized for its price hike. This morning, most Asian stock markets continued to be volatile and move sideways down. Given that, FSS expects the SET to continue to be volatile and retreat as investors continue to wait for the Fed Chairs statement tomorrow (August 26). We recommend that investors wait to selectively buy on weakness.
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24
August
2016
Daily Focus : 24 August 2016, SET likely to continue to retreat; wait to buy on weakness
(views 663)
Yesterday global crude started to recover to trade within US$46.7-47.2 a barrel. Although oil continued to be volatile until evening, it managed to end up 1.5% to US$48 a barrel in the end, supported by news that Iran signaled its readiness to cooperate in oil price support. Given that, both U.S. and European equity markets turned to close up last night, driven by U.S. new home sales in July, which surged to its peak in nearly nine years, while eurozone PMI in August expanded at a higher rate. However, selling momentum in Asia continued to be seen. Hence, FSS expects the SET to be volatile and retreat as investors continue to wait for the Fed Chairs statement late this week (i.e. on August 26). We continue to recommend that investors selectively buy on weakness.
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23
August
2016
Daily Focus : 23 August 2016, SET likely to continue to fall; selectively buy on weakness
(views 555)
Last night both U.S. and European stock markets ended lower. Global crude began to weaken by over 3% after there was report that U.S. oil rigs increased for the eight straight weeks. Moreover, there was no clarity that a meeting of oil-producing countries meeting on September 26-28 would yield concrete result about how to tackle supply glut or not. In Asia, stock markets were directionless this morning. To elaborate, they opened mixed with both losses and gains as investors continued to keep their ear on the Fed chairs statement at the central banks annual meeting in Jackson Hole on Friday, August 26 whether there would be a signal on policy rate hike. For this reason, FSS expects the SET to continue to retreat. However, the loss should be brief before the Thai index turns to climb to our index target of 1650. We continue to recommend that investors selectively buy on weakness.
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22
August
2016
Daily Focus : 22 August 2016, Buy on weakness and then hold, waiting for new round of rallies
(views 542)
Last Friday, global crude began to move within narrow range, swinging back and forth between positive and negative territories as investors were more cautious after it had rallied by over 20% in the last six days, while there was no clarity over a meeting to discuss a fix to supply glut. In addition, many Fed officials started to express an agreement with a sooner policy rate hike. Given that, both U.S. and European stock markets were pressured to fall quite considerably last Friday. This has in turn affected Asian equity markets
movement, causing most of them to open lower this morning. For this reason, FSS expects the SET to move downwards. However, we also
believes that the fall will be brief before the index turns to a new round of rallies to our index target which is maintained at 1650.
We recommend that investors selectively accumulate on weakness.
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19
August
2016
Daily Focus : 19 August 2016, SET still likely to fall; wait to buy on weakness
(views 589)
We continue to recommend that investors gradually buy on weakness.
Read More
18
August
2016
Daily Focus : 18 August 2016, SET likely to continue to fall, serving as opportunity to buy
(views 623)
Although the SET rebounded, we continue to recommend that investors selectively buy on weakness.
Read More
17
August
2016
Daily Focus : 17 August 2016, SET decreases to reduce heat, providing opportunity to place more bets
(views 626)
We recommend that investors selectively accumulate when the SET decreases.
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16
August
2016
Daily Focus : 16 August 2016, SET begins to gain limitedly and retreat; wait to buy on
(views 550)
FSS continues to recommend that investors hold, waiting to sell at our index target of 1650 or close. However, if ones want to
place new bets, we suggest that they are made on weakness.
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15
August
2016
Daily Focus : 15 August 2016, SET still likely to fall, serving as opportunity to accumulate
(views 563)
FSS continues to recommend that investors wait to buy on weakness. We view that a loss serves as opportunity to buy because we believe there is chance that the SET will climb to 1650 or close.
Read More
11
August
2016
Daily Focus : Wait to buy on weakness
(views 550)
Although FSS continues to see the SET in positive light, expecting the index to climb to 1650 or close by year-end. In the near term, investors need to watch out on a fall. If that happens, it serves as buy opportunity and we recommend that investors accumulate on weakness.
Read More
10
August
2016
SET likely to be volatile and retreat; wait to buy on weakness
(views 615)
FSS continues to see the SET in a positive light, expecting the index to climb to 1650 or close before end-2016. However, investors need to be cautious over a near-term retreat, which will serve as opportunity to accumulate.
Read More
09
August
2016
Daily Focus : SET still likely to fall; wait to buy on weakness
(views 599)
Although FSS maintains our bullish view about the SET, expecting that the index will climb to move near 1650 or close within this year, it is still possible that the SET will fall, serving as an opportunity to buy. For this reason, we suggest that investors wait to
buy on weakness.
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08
August
2016
Daily Focus : SET likely to be volatile and retreat; wait to buy on weakness
(views 637)
FSS expects the SET to be volatile after the index has rallied quite sharply lately. Hence, we recommend that investors wait to buy on weakness.
Read More
05
August
2016
Daily Focus : SET likely to be volatile and retreat; wait to buy on weakness
(views 513)
FSS expects the SET to see near-term rebounds prior to a fall. Hence, we maintain our call for investors to wait and buy on
weakness - to be safe.
Read More
04
August
2016
Daily Focus : SET likely to see near-term rebound prior to fall; wait to buy
(views 564)
We expect the SET to rebound in the near term after the index dropped sharply in the last two days. After which, there is risk that the SET will turn to fall again. For this reason, we recommend that investors wait to buy when the index decreases.
Read More
03
August
2016
Daily Focus : SET likely to continue to fall prior to new round of rallies; wait to buy on weakness
(views 520)
The SET plunged by nearly 40 points in the last two trading days to trade below 1500 as we have anticipated. For this reason, we recommend that investors wait and selectively accumulate on weakness.
Read More
02
August
2016
Daily Focus : SET likely to continue to fall in order to rise again; buy on weakness
(views 511)
FSS maintains our call for investors to wait to buy on weakness.
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01
August
2016
Daily Focus : คาด SET ยังผันผวนต่อ ดังนั้นเน้นรอทยอยซื้อช่วงลบต่อไปดีกว่า
(views 589)
อย่างไรก็ตาม FSS ยังแนะนำให้ระวังแรงขายกดดัน SET ให้แกว่งตัวลบต่อ ดังนั้นไม่แนะนำให้ซื้อไล่ราคาช่วงบวก โดยน่ารอเลือกหุ้นทยอยซื้อช่วงลบดีกว่า แต่ถ้าขายลดพอร์ตไปมากแล้ว จะเลือกชะลอการขายลงบ้างก็ได้
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29
July
2016
Daily Focus : SET ขึ้นดีเกินคาด จะชะลอการขายบ้างก็ได้ แต่ไม่แนะนำให้ไล่ซื้อ
(views 580)
ถึงแม้ว่า SET ยังขึ้นต่อได้ดี แต่ FSS มองว่ามีความเสี่ยงสูง และยังต้องระวังจังหวะปรับพักตัวลงอยู่เช่นเดิม ดังนั้นไม่แนะนำให้ซื้อไล่ราคาช่วงบวก ยังน่ารอเลือกหุ้นทยอยซื้อช่วงลบดีกว่า แต่ถ้าขายลดพอร์ตไปมากแล้วจะเลือกชะลอการขายลงบ้างก็ได้
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28
July
2016
Daily Focus : คาด SET ยังมีสิทธิพักตัวลงต่อได้อีก ดังนั้น ยังแนะนำรอซื้อลบ
(views 569)
ยังแนะนำให้รอเลือกหุ้นทยอยซื้อช่วง SET แกว่งตัวลงดีกว่า เพราะช่วงที่ผ่านมาดัชนีขยับขึ้นมาค่อนข้างร้อนแรงพอควร โดยยังไม่มีปัจจัยบวกใหม่เข้ามาหนุนเพิ่ม ในขณะที่ช่วงตลาดบวกยังน่าสนใจแบ่งส่วนขายทำกำไรเพื่อลดพอร์ตได้เช่นเดิม
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27
July
2016
Daily Focus : คาด SET ยังอยู่ในช่วงแกว่งพักตัวลงต่อ ดังนั้นรอทยอยซื้อช่วงลบ
(views 612)
คาด SET ยังอยู่ในช่วงปรับพักตัวลงต่อเพื่อสร้างฐาน ก่อนพลิกกลับขึ้นจริงจังรอบใหม่ในช่วงถัดไป ดังนั้นหลังจากขายทำกำไรลดพอร์ตช่วงบวกไปแล้ว ถัดจากนี้ก็รอเลือกหุ้นทยอยซื้อใหม่ช่วง SET ไหลลงต่ำ
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26
July
2016
Daily Focus : SET ยังมีแรงขายช่วงบวก จึงเสี่ยงกับการพักฐานต่อ รอซื้อลบดีกว่า
(views 590)
คาดว่า SET ยังมีโอกาสปรับพักตัวลงเพื่อสร้างฐาน ก่อนพลิกกลับขึ้นจริงจังรอบใหม่ในช่วงถัดไป ดังนั้นยังน่ามองหาจังหวะขายทำกำไรลดพอร์ตช่วงบวก แล้วรอเลือกหุ้นซื้อใหม่เฉพาะช่วง SET ลบดีกว่า
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25
July
2016
Daily Focus : แม้ SET ยังพลิกกลับมาบวก แต่ก็เสี่ยงกับการพักฐานอีก รอซื้อลบดีกว่า
(views 570)
ช่วงนี้ยังต้องระวัง SET ปรับพักตัวลงอีก เพื่อสร้างฐานก่อนพลักกลับขึ้นจริงจังรอบใหม่ตามคาด ดังนั้น ยังน่ามองหาจังหวะขายทำกำไรลดพอร์ทช่วงบวก เพื่อรอเลือกหุ้นซื้อใหม่ช่วง SET ลบเช่นเดิม
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22
July
2016
Daily Focus : SET เริ่มปรับลง ซึ่งลุ้นพักตัวอีกสักระยะได้ ดังนั้น ค่อยๆ ทยอยซื้อลบ
(views 555)
คาดว่า SET มีโอกาสปรับพักตัวลงต่อเนื่องได้อีกสักระยะ ก่อนกลับไปขยับบวกต่อในช่วงหน้า ดังนั้น ตลาดปรับลงยังน่าสนใจเลือกหุ้นซื้อ แต่เน้นเป็นค่อยๆ ทยอยซื้อช่วงลบ ไม่ต้องรับ
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21
July
2016
Daily Focus : ช่วงนี้ต้องระวัง SET พักตัวลง ดังนั้น แบ่งขายทำกำไร เพื่อรอซื้อลบได้
(views 568)
เนื่องจาก SET ขยับขึ้นมามากแล้ว ทำให้ FSS ยังคาดหมายโอกาสปรับพักตัวลงในกรอบกว้างได้ในช่วงถุดไป ดังนั้น เรายังแนะนำให้รอเลือกหุ้นซื้อเพิ่มช่วง SET ปรับตัวลงดีกว่า และช่วงบวกสามารถแบ่งส่วนขายทำกำไร เพื่อรอซื้อช่วงปรับตัวลงได้ด้วย
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20
July
2016
Daily Focus : หลัง SET บวกมาพอควรและเข้าใกล้เป้าหมาย น่าแบ่งขายเพื่อรอซื้อลบ
(views 750)
ยังแนะนำให้รอเลือกหุ้นซื้อเพิ่มช่วง SET ปรับลงดีกว่า โดยในช่วงบวกน่าจะแบ่งส่วนทยอยขายทำกำไร เพื่อรอซื้อช่วงปรับลงอีกครั้ง
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15
July
2016
Daily Focus : SET ขึ้นเร็วและเข้าใกล้เป้าหมายซึ่งน่าเตรียมขาย จะซื้อจึงต้องรออ่อน
(views 531)
แนะนำให้รอเลือกหุ้นซื้อเพิ่มช่วง SET ปรับลงดีกว่า อย่างไรก็ตามเรามองว่า SET มีแนวโน้มที่จะขยับขึ้นสูงกว่า 1500 จุดได้ หุ้นที่มีอยู่จึงยังรอหาจังหวะขายทำกำไรแถว 1500 จุดหรือสูงกว่าได้
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14
July
2016
Daily Focus : SET ขึ้นเร็วต้องระวังผันผวน แม้ถือต่อได้ แต่น่ารอซื้อช่วงอ่อนตัว
(views 636)
ยังแนะนำให้เน้นถือหุ้นต่อเนื่องเพื่อลุ้นเป้าหมาย 1500 จุดอยู่ แต่ระยะสั้นตลาดขึ้นมาแรงและเร็วพอควร ทำให้ต้องระวังจังหวะแกว่งผันผวนและอ่อนตัว ดังนั้นถ้าจะซื้อเพิ่มจึงน่ารอช่วง SET ปรับพักไว้ก่อนดีกว่า
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13
July
2016
Daily Focus : SET ยังขึ้นได้ดีแม้จะผันผวน แต่ก็น่าถือต่อและเลือกซื้อช่วงอ่อนตัว
(views 550)
แนะนำให้เน้นถือหุ้นต่อเนื่องเพื่อลุ้นเป้าหมาย 1,500 จุด ในช่วงถัดไปตามคาด ส่วนถ้ามีจังหวะอ่อนตัวลง ถือเป็นโอกาสเลือกหุ้นซื้อเพิ่ม
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12
July
2016
Daily Focus : ยังเน้นถือหุ้นเพื่อรอลุ้น 1500 จุด...แต่ต้องระวังแกว่งจึงน่ารอซื้อลบ
(views 527)
ยังแนะนำให้เน้นถือหุ้นต่อเนื่อง เพื่อรอดัชนีแกว่งไต่ระดับขึ้นหาเป้าหมาย 1500 จุด ในช่วงถัดไปตามคาดเดิม ส่วนถ้ามีจังหวะอ่อนตัวลงให้ ก็ถือเป็นโอกาสในการเลือกหุ้นซื้อเพิ่ม
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11
July
2016
Daily Focus : หลังจากเลือกหุ้นซื้อลบไปแล้ว ถัดจากนี้เน้นถือเพื่อรอลุ้น 1,500 จุด
(views 558)
แนะนำให้เลือกหุ้นซื้อเพิ่มช่วงตลาดลบไปแล้ว ถัดจากนี้เน้นถือหุ้นต่อเนื่อง เพื่อรอดัชนีแกว่งไต่ระดับขึ้นหาเป้าหมาย 1,500 จุด ในช่วงถัดไป
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08
July
2016
Daily Focus : ตลาดลงยังน่าเลือกหุ้นซื้อ แล้วเน้นถือเพื่อรอรอบบวกใหญ่ต่อไป
(views 575)
ยังคาดว่า SET มีโอกาสปรับพักตัวลงให้เป็นโอกาสในการเลือกหุ้นซื้อเพิ่มได้ ก่อนลุ้นจังหวะขยับไต่ระดับขึ้นหาเป้าหมาย 1500 จุด ในช่วงถัดไป ส่วนที่ซื้อแล้วเราจึงยังแนะนำเน้นถือต่อเนื่องเช่นเดิม
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07
July
2016
Daily Focus : SET อ่อนตัวแล้วยังมีแรงซื้อหนุน ดังนั้น ยังเน้นถือต่อ และอ่อนตัวซื้อได้
(views 542)
ยังคาดว่า SET ผันผวนและปรับพักตัวเพียงช่วงสั้น ก่อนลุ้นโอกาสขยับไต่ระดับขึ้นหาเป้าหมาย 1500 จุด ได้ในช่วงถัดไป ดังนั้น ยังแนะนำถือต่อเนื่อง และเลือกหุ้นซื้อได้เมื่อตลาดปรับลง
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06
July
2016
Daily Focus : ความกังวลผล Brexit ยังกดดัน SET ให้ลงต่อได้ แต่คาดเป็นโอกาสซื้อ
(views 644)
คาดว่า SET ปรับลงเพื่อสร้างฐานรอขยับขึ้นรอบใหม่ โดยลุ้นเป้า 1500 จุดได้ในช่วงถัดไป ดังนั้นยังแนะนำถือต่อเนื่อง และเลือกหุ้นซื้อได้เมื่อตลาดปรับลง
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05
July
2016
Daily Focus : SET ยังมีสิทธิปรับพัก จึงแนะนำซื้อเพิ่มช่วงตลาดอ่อนตัวดีกว่า
(views 590)
ยังแนะนำเลือกหุ้นซื้อช่วง SET อ่อนตัวลง และส่วนที่ซื้อแล้วยังแนะนำให้เน้นถือต่อเนื่อง เพื่อรอทำกำไรรอบบวกใหญ่เช่นเดิม
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04
July
2016
Daily Focus : หลังจากซื้อแล้วยังแนะให้เน้นถือ แต่ถ้าจะซื้อเพิ่มน่าเลือกซื้อช่วงอ่อน
(views 742)
ยังแนะนำเลือกหุ้นซื้อช่วง SET อ่อนตัวลงน่าจะปลอดภัยกว่า แต่ส่วนที่ซื้อแล้วเรายังแนะนำให้เน้นถือต่อเนื่องเพื่อรอทำกำไรในรอบบวกใหญ่เช่นเดิม
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30
June
2016
Daily Focus : ยังแนะนำให้เน้นถือเพื่อรอรอบบวกใหญ่เป็นหลัก ถ้าอ่อนตัวก็ซื้อเพิ่ม
(views 648)
FSS ยังคาดหมายว่า SET จะแกว่งผันผวนที่บริเวณนี้เพียงแค่ระยะสั้น ก่อนลุ้นรอบบวกจริงจังต่อไปในเร็วๆนี้ ดังนั้น SET อ่อนตัวลงจึงยังน่าสนใจเลือกหุ้นซื้อเพิ่มได้ แล้วเน้นถือเพื่อรอทำกำไรในรอบบวกใหญ่ต่อไป
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29
June
2016
Daily Focus : ซื้อแล้วให้เน้นถือเพื่อรอรอบบวกใหญ่ และถ้าอ่อนตัวซื้อเพิ่มได้
(views 635)
FSS ยังแนะนำให้เน้นถือต่อเนื่อง เพื่อรอรอบบวกจริงจังต่อไป ส่วนถ้า SET ยังมีจังหวะอ่อนตัวลงให้อีก ก็น่าสนใจเลือกหุ้นซื้อเพิ่มได้เช่นเดิม
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28
June
2016
Daily Focus : หลังจากซื้อแล้วให้เน้นถือเพื่อรอรอบบวกใหญ่ แต่ซื้อเพิ่มน่ารออ่อนตัว
(views 1,280)
หลังจาก FSS แนะนำให้เลือกหุ้นซื้อช่วงตลาดลบไปแล้ว ถัดจากนี้เน้นถือเพื่อรอรอบบวกจริงจังต่อไป อย่างไรก็ตามยังต้องระวังการแกว่งตัวผันผวน ดังนั้นถ้าจะเลือกหุ้นซื้อเพิ่มยังรอช่วงตลาดแกว่งอ่อนตัวได้
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27
June
2016
Daily Focus : SET ปรับลงยังมองเป็นโอกาสเลือกหุ้นซื้อ แล้วเน้นถือเพื่อรอรอบบวก
(views 683)
ดังนั้น FSS ยังแนะนำให้เลือกหุ้นซื้อในช่วงตลาดอ่อนตัวลงได้ แล้วเน้นถือเพื่อรอรอบบวกในช่วงถัดไป ค่อยพิจารณาหาจังหวะทำกำไรต่อไป
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24
June
2016
Daily Focus : คาด SET ผันผวนเพื่อสร้างฐานรอรอบขึ้นใหม่ ดังนั้น ซื้อแล้วเน้นถือต่อ
(views 512)
FSS ยังแนะนำให้เลือกหุ้นซื้อในช่วงตลาดอ่อนตัวลงได้ แล้วเน้นถือเพื่อรอรอบบวกในช่วงถัดไป ค่อยพิจารณาหาจังหวะทำกำไรต่อไป
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23
June
2016
Daily Focus : SET ยังผันผวนให้รอซื้อช่วงอ่อนตัวได้อยู่ แต่ซื้อแล้วน่าเน้นถือต่อไป
(views 579)
FSS ยังแนะนำให้รอเลือกหุ้นซื้อในช่วงตลาดอ่อนตัวลงดีกว่า อย่างไรก็ตาม เรายังคาดหมายว่า SET มีแนวโน้มที่จะสามารถแกว่งไต่ระดับขึ้นไปหาดัชนีตามพื้นฐานที่เราประเมินไว้แถว 1,500 จุด ได้ในช่วงถัดไปอยู่เช่นเดิม ส่วนที่ซื้อแล้วจึงแนะนำให้ถือเพื่อรอรอบบวกต่อไปได้
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22
June
2016
Daily Focus : SET อาจผันผวนบ้างทำให้ยังน่าซื้อช่วงอ่อนตัว แต่ซื้อแล้วเน้นถือต่อได้
(views 571)
ดังนั้นแม้ว่า FSS ยังคาดว่า SET จะสามารถแกว่งไต่ระดับขึ้นไปหาระดับดัชนีตามพื้นฐานที่เราประเมินไว้แถว 1500 จุดได้ในช่วงถัดไป แต่ระยะสั้นต้องระวังการแกว่งตัวผันผวนและอ่อนตัวไว้ด้วย ดังนั้นเราจึงยังแนะนำให้เลือกหุ้นซื้อช่วงตลาดอ่อนตัวดีกว่า อย่างไรก็ตามส่วนที่ซื้อแล้วแนะนำให้เน้นถือเพื่อรอรอบบวกต่อไป
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21
June
2016
Daily Focus : ซื้อแล้วยังเน้นถือต่อได้ แต่ซื้อใหม่ยังน่ารอช่วงแกว่งอ่อนตัวดีกว่า
(views 538)
FSS คาดว่า SET จะปรับพักตัวเพียงช่วงสั้น และมีกรอบลบค่อนข้างจำกัด ก่อนลุ้นแรงซื้อหนุนให้ตลาดสามารถแกว่งไต่ระดับกลับขึ้นไปหาระดับดัชนีตามพื้นฐานที่เราประเมินไว้แถว 1500 จุดได้ในช่วงถัดไป ดังนั้น SET ลบยังเลือกหุ้นซื้อ แล้วเน้นถือเพื่อรอรอบบวกต่อไป
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20
June
2016
Daily Focus : หลังจากซื้อแล้วแนะนำให้เน้นถือต่อเนื่องไว้ก่อน เพื่อรอรอบบวกใหญ่
(views 681)
FSS ยังคาดว่า SET ปรับพักตัวลงเพียงช่วงสั้น และสามารถลุ้นแรงซื้อกลับเข้ามาหนุนช่วงตลาดเป็นลบต่อได้ โดยเรายังคาดว่า SET มีสิทธิแกว่งไต่ระดับกลับขึ้นไปหาระดับดัชนีตามพื้นฐานที่ 1500 จุดได้ในช่วงถัดไป ดังนั้น SET ลบยังเลือกหุ้นซื้อ แล้วเน้นถือเพื่อรอรอบบวกต่อไป
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17
June
2016
Daily Focus : หลังเลือกหุ้นทยอยซื้อลบแล้ว แนะนำให้ถือต่อเพื่อรอขายสูง
(views 566)
FSS ยังคาดหมายว่า SET ปรับพักตัวลงเพียงช่วงสั้น และยังสามารถลุ้นแรงซื้อกลับเข้ามาหนุนช่วงตลาดเป็นลบต่อได้ โดยเรายังคาดว่า SET มีสิทธิแกว่งไต่ระดับกลับขึ้นไปหาระดับดัชนีตามพื้นฐานที่ 1,500 ได้ในช่วงถัดไป ดังนั้น SET ลบยังเลือกหุ้นซื้อ แล้วเน้นถือเพื่อรอรอบบวกต่อไป
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16
June
2016
Daily Focus : SET ยังผันผวนและอ่อนตัวได้ จึงรอทยอยซื้อลบต่อ แต่ซื้อแล้วเน้นถือ
(views 507)
หลังจากให้เลือกหุ้นทยอยซื้อสะสมช่วง SET ลบไปแล้ว ถัดจากนี้แนะนำถือต่อเนื่องไว้ก่อน ขณะที่ยังเลือกหุ้นซื้อต่อถ้าตลาดปรับลง
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15
June
2016
Daily Focus : คาด SET ยังมีสิทธิปรับพักฐานก่อนขึ้นรอบใหม่ จึงรอทยอยซื้อลบต่อ
(views 537)
เรายังแนะนำให้เลือกหุ้นทยอยเข้าซื้อสะสมในช่วง SET ลบดีกว่า และหลังจากซื้อแล้วยังแนะนำให้เน้นถือเพื่อรอรีบาวด์จริงจังในช่วงหน้าต่อไป โดยไม่จำเป็นต้องทำกำไรเร็วนัก
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14
June
2016
Daily Focus : คาด SET พักตัวสร้างฐาน เพื่อรอขึ้นรอบใหม่ ดังนั้นเลือกหุ้นทยอยซื้อ
(views 584)
ถึงแม้ SET ยังมีสิทธิพักตัวลงต่ออีก แต่ FSS คาดว่าเป็นการพักตัวเพื่อสร้างฐานรอการแกว่งขึ้นรอบใหม่ตามคาด ดังนั้นเรายังแนะนำให้เลือกหุ้นทยอยเข้าซื้อสะสมต่อเนื่อง แล้วเน้นถือเพื่อรอขายทำกำไรช่วงบวกต่อไป
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13
June
2016
Daily Focus : SET เริ่มปรับตัวลงตามคาด ซึ่งถือเป็นโอกาสในการเลือกหุ้นทยอยซื้อ
(views 662)
FSS ยังคาดว่า SET อยู่ระหว่างปรับพักตัวเพื่อลดความร้อนแรงของการขยับขึ้นเร็วเกินไปในช่วง 2 สัปดาห์ก่อนหน้า แต่ด้วยสภาพคล่องในตลาดที่ยังมีมาก รวมทั้งคาดว่านักลงทุนยังเชื่อมั่นว่าเฟดจะชะลอการขึ้นอัตราดอกเบี้ยออกไปก่อน ทำให้มีลุ้นแรงซื้อกลับเข้ามาหนุนอีกครั้งได้ โดยเรายังคาดหมายโอกาสที่ดัชนีจะขยับขึ้นหาเป้าหมาย 1500 จุดได้ในช่วงถัดไป จึงยังแนะนำเลือกหุ้นทยอยซื้อช่วงลบ แล้วเน้นถือต่อเนื่อง
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10
June
2016
Daily Focus : SET ยังมีแนวโน้มแกว่งลบให้เป็นโอกาสในการเลือกหุ้นซื้อต่ออยู่
(views 567)
FSS ยังคาดว่า SET ปรับลงเพื่อลดความร้อนแรงของการขึ้นในช่วงที่ผ่านมา ขณะที่สภาพคล่องในตลาดยังมีสูง ทำให้มีลุ้นแรงซื้อกลับเข้ามาหนุนเมื่อ SET ปรับตัวลง และสุดท้ายตลาดยังมีแนวโน้มที่จะขยับขึ้นต่อ เพื่อลุ้นวิ่งขึ้นหาเป้าหมาย 1500 จุดได้ในช่วงถัดไป จึงแนะนำเลือกหุ้นทยอยเข้ารับ แล้วเน้นถือต่อเนื่อง
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09
June
2016
Daily Focus : SET บวกยังเน้นถือรอขายสูง แต่ถ้าซื้อเพิ่มน่ารอช่วงแกว่งย้อนอ่อนตัว
(views 593)
หลังจาก FSS แนะนำให้ทยอยซื้อช่วง SET ลบแล้ว จากนี้ไปให้เน้นถือเพื่อรอรอบบวกใหญ่ โดยมีเป้าหมาย 1,500 จุด หรือใกล้เคียง อย่างไรก็ตาม ถ้าจะเลือกหุ้นทยอยเข้าซื้อเพิ่มอีก ยังน่ารอช่วง SET อ่อนตัวลงเช่นเดิม
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08
June
2016
Daily Focus : คาด SET เริ่มมีจังหวะย้อนลบ ให้เป็นโอกาสเลือกหุ้นทยอยซื้อเพิ่มแล้ว
(views 625)
FSS คาดว่า SET จะพักตัวลงเพื่อสร้างฐาน ก่อนกลับไปแกว่งบวกขึ้นหาระดับดัชนีเป้าหมายตามพื้นฐานที่เราประเมินไว้ที่ 1500 จุดได้ในช่วงถัดไป เนื่องจากสภาพคล่องในตลาดยังมีมาก ดังนั้นตลาดอ่อนตัวลงจึงแนะนำให้เลือกหุ้นทยอยเข้าซื้อสะสมต่อได้ แล้วเน้นถือเพื่อรอรอบบวกใหญ่ต่อไป
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07
June
2016
Daily Focus : ส่วนที่ซื้อแล้วยังถือต่อได้ แต่ถ้าจะซื้อใหม่น่ารอซื้อช่วงลบต่อไป
(views 558)
แม้ SET ยังขยับบวกต่อได้อีก หลังตัวเลขการจ้างงานฯของสหรัฐออกมาต่ำกว่าคาด ทำให้นักลงทุนยังมีความหวังว่าเฟดจะชะลอการขึ้นดอกเบี้ยไว้ก่อน แต่ก็มีแรงขายกดดันช่วงบวก ทำให้ดัชนีแกว่งผันผวนเพราะยังมีความไม่แน่นอน และขาดปัจจัยบวกเพิ่มเติม
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06
June
2016
Daily Focus : แม้ SET ยังบวกต่อได้ แต่ก็ต้องระวังผันผวน จึงแนะนำรอซื้อช่วงลบต่อ
(views 650)
SET แกว่งทรงตัวด้านบวกได้อีกในช่วงท้ายสัปดาห์ที่แล้ว แต่ก็มีแรงขายกดดันให้ผันผวนอยู่ คาดว่าเพราะไม่มีปัจจัยบวกใหม่เข้ามาหนุนเพิ่มมากนัก ขณะที่นักลงทุนยังกังวลเรื่องการขึ้นดอกเบี้ยสหรัฐด้วย ก่อนที่ภาคบ่ายจะได้แรงหนุนจากราคาน้ำมันโลกที่ขยับขึ้น ทำให้ SET ยังขึ้นทำ High
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03
June
2016
Daily Focus : คาด SET ยังมีสิทธิแกว่งลบ ให้เป็นโอกาสในการเลือกหุ้นซื้อได้อยู่
(views 586)
หลังผลประชุม OPEC ไม่มีความคืบหน้า ขณะที่ความกังวลเกี่ยวกับการขึ้นดอกเบี้ยของสหรัฐยังกดดันตลาด รวมทั้งไม่มีปัจจัยบวกใหม่ๆ เข้ามาหนุนเพิ่ม ทำให้ SET ยังมีสิทธิแกว่งผันผวนและย้อนลบ
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02
June
2016
Daily Focus : คาดตลาดเริ่มมีจังหวะปรับพักตัวลง ให้เป็นโอกาสในการเลือกหุ้นซื้อ
(views 631)
SET เริ่มมีจังหวะปรับพักตัวลงจริงจังมากขึ้น หลังจากช่วงก่อนหน้าดัชนีขยับขึ้นมาแรง ทำให้ FSS คาดว่า SET มีโอกาสพักตัวลงต่อได้อีก
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01
June
2016
Daily Focus : ช่วงนี้มีหุ้นอยู่ยังเน้นถือต่อเนื่องได้ แต่ถ้าจะซื้อใหม่ยังรอช่วงอ่อนตัว
(views 512)
SET เริ่มผันผวนมากขึ้น และมีจังหวะอ่อนตัวให้เห็น ขณะที่ราคาน้ำมันดิบในตลาดโลกก็เริ่มอ่อนแอลงต่อเนื่อง ก่อนลุ้นผลประชุม OPEC ในวันพรุ่งนี้ (2 มิ.ย.) รวมทั้งนักลงทุนยังกังวลเกี่ยวกับโอกาสในการขยับขึ้นอัตราดอกเบี้ยของสหรัฐในการประชุมเฟดกลางเดือนนี้ (14-15 มิ.ย.) นอกจากนี้ตัวเลข PMI ภาคบริการเดือน พ.ค. ของจีนเช้านี้ก็ยังชะลอลง ดังนั้น FSS แนะนำให้รอเลือกหุ้นทยอยซื้อช่วงลบดีกว่า อย่างไรก็ตามส่วนที่ซื้อแล้วยังเน้นถือต่อเพื่อลุ้นรอบบวก
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31
May
2016
Daily Focus : SET มีสิทธิผันผวนและย้อนลบ จึงน่ารอซื้อช่วงลบ แต่ซื้อแล้วถือต่อได้
(views 563)
แม้ SET จะรีบาวด์ขึ้นมาได้ดีในช่วงสัปดาห์เศษที่ผ่านมา แต่มองว่ามาจากแรงเก็งกำไรคาดการณ์ที่ว่าเฟดอาจจะยังไม่ขึ้นดอกเบี้ยในการประชุมรอบนี้(14-15 มิ.ย.)ซึ่งยังมีความไม่แน่นอนสูง
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30
May
2016
Daily Focus : ซื้อช่วงลบแล้วน่าเน้นถือต่อ แต่ถ้าจะซื้อใหม่น่ารอช่วงลบ
(views 625)
เนื่องจากยังไม่ได้มีปัจจัยบวกใหม่เข้ามาหนุน ขณะที่ความกังวลเกี่ยวกับการขึ้นอัตราดอกเบี้ยของสหรัฐเร็วกว่าคาด และการถอนตัวจาก EU ของอังกฤษยังกดดันตลาด ทำให้ SET ยังมีโอกาสปรับพักตัวลงอีกได้ตามคาดเดิม ดังนั้น FSS ยังแนะนำให้รอเลือกหุ้นทยอยซื้อช่วงลบดีกว่า แต่ส่วนที่ซื้อไว้แล้วแนะนำให้เน้นถือต่อ เพื่อรอรอบบวกใหญ่ที่คาดว่าใกล้จะเกิดขึ้นในเร็วๆ นี้ต่อไป
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27
May
2016
Daily Focus : ช่วงนี้ซื้อแล้วแนะนำถือต่อ แต่ถ้าจะซื้ออีกยังแนะนำรอช่วงตลาดปรับลง
(views 560)
SET ขยับบวกกลับขึ้นมาพอควรแล้ว ซึ่ง FSS ยังคาดหมายว่ากรอบบวกช่วงนี้น่าจะค่อนข้างจำกัด
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26
May
2016
Daily Focus : แม้ว่าส่วนที่ซื้อแล้วยังถือต่อไว้ได้ แต่ถ้าจะซื้อใหม่ยังน่ารอช่วงอ่อนตัว
(views 637)
แม้ SET ยังมีจังหวะรีบาวด์เป็นบวกต่อเนื่องได้อีก แต่คาดว่าเป็นการสลับบวก หลังจากช่วงก่อนหน้าดัชนีปรับตัวลงมาค่อนข้างเร็วพอควร อย่างไรก็ตามยังมีความกังวลในประเด็นการขึ้นอัตราดอกเบี้ยของเฟด และการตัดสินใจออกจาก EU ของอังกฤษ ทำให้ FSS คาดว่ากรอบบวกจะยังค่อนข้างจำกัด และเสี่ยงต่อการที่จะปรับตัวลงได้อีก ดังนั้นเรายังแนะนำให้เลือกหุ้นทยอยซื้อช่วงลบต่อ แต่ส่วนที่ซื้อไว้แล้วแนะนำให้เน้นถือต่อดีกว่า
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25
May
2016
Daily Focus : หลังจากซื้อช่วงลบแล้วเน้นถือไว้ได้ แต่ถ้าจะซื้อใหม่น่ารอช่วงอ่อนตัว
(views 510)
ถึงแม้ว่า SET จะมีจังหวะรีบาวด์สลับบ้างหลังปรับตัวลงมาค่อนข้างเร็วในช่วงก่อนหน้า แต่คาดว่ายังมีกรอบบวกจำกัด และเสี่ยงต่อการที่จะยังปรับตัวลงต่อเนื่องได้อีก
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